Draft: 20-Something Area Picks

[STL fan in MN]

Seattle, Stl in MN, and Pierre…what do you guys think of Kashawn Aitcheson? I love everything ive seen and read about him and think he’d be perfect for our defense, and if he isnt there when we pick at 19, he should be close enough to trade up for if the Blues scouting staff were to fall in love with em too.

I like Aitcheson. He’s physical and plays hard. Seems like the type that could develop into a fan favorite type. Maybe like a Jackman if he hits his top end potential? He’s the sort of d-man I’d project around 25-30 most years but have him around 15-20 this year as it’s a bit weaker draft than most years.

I like him but honestly, I’d prefer he not be who the Blues draft. As Seattle mentioned, he’s one of the oldest players in this draft (first time eligible anyway). If he was born one week sooner, he would’ve been drafted a year ago. Lukas Fischer is not quite 2 weeks older than Aitcheson but one fell on one side of the NHL draft age cutoff and one on the other side. But both played their 18 year old seasons this year and honestly, I thought Fischer was better. But the main reason why Aitcheson wouldn’t be my optimal pick at 19 is because he’s a 6’1” LD. We have sooo many LD prospects already. I’m absolutely against drafting for need so if a LD is the clear cut BPA then I’d take the LD but to me, Aitcheson is in a fuzzy 10-15 player tier where any of them could really be considered BPA so for that, he wouldn’t be my pick. But I do like him and think he’ll have a good NHL career as a hard nosed 2nd to 3rd pairing d-man.

Oh wow, didnt realize he’s an overager or whatever its called. I could see where that’s drop em down a peg if he has a year headstart on his development compared to others. Id still be happy if they drafted him tho

Aitcheson is not an overager. He’s simply on the older side of this draft class. NHL draft cutoff is Sept 15. He was born on Sept 21. So missed last year’s draft by a week.

However, I do keep track of when these guys are born. And pretty much every other league uses an age cutoff of Jan 1. So for anyone born in 2006, this was their 18 year old season. For anyone born in 2007, this was their 17 year old season. The birthdate range for first year eligibles for this year’s NHL draft is 9/16/06 to 9/15/07. So this is Aitcheson’s first year being draft eligible but he is on the older side and he’s had one more year of development than his 2007 born counterparts. This is his 3rd year in the OHL whereas the ones born in 2007 would have only 2 years of OHL experience (except Misa who was granted exceptional status and allowed into the OHL a year early). In some ways, that’s a benefit as he’s a development year further along so theoretically, he should be ready to move to higher levels sooner but you also have to take into account that he’s had an extra year so perhaps his runway isn’t as long and a younger player might not be as good today but perhaps is likely to pass the older player in a year or two as they catch up developmentally.

[Bluesfan1978]

On the Ravensbergen question I was paying some attention since he is projected as the top goalie. He actually didn't have a great 7 game series (which his team lost) and my own goalie philosophy is please do not take them with a first round pick unless you have multiple of them and there's a truly outstanding one and then think about it even then. Long live Marek Schwarz. I do think the Blues could stand to draft another goalie this year but not with their first round pick.

Carbonneau. The amount of goals from pretty much everywhere in the O-zone and many from near the front of the net. There was one goal in the highlight pack you shared that he went through everyone against Quebec I think. Not sure if he has the same mentality for getting the puck back or not but thats part of development. What he does do well in driving the net and scoring from the hard areas is hard to teach. Any line could use that type of player.

I have read where Carbonneau has been compared to Boeser. I like what you picked up on about the nature of his goals, I definitely immediately thought "Holloway" was a good description of Carbonneau just double checking before I made an assumption. That is how I feel about it. Another Holloway available in the mid first? Done.

I can see the Boeser comparison but I think on some of those goals it looked like he was going to get the puck in the net one way or the other which reminds me more of Holloways grit and determination. I’d draft Holloway every year if possible.

[Emma bleeds blue]

I don't really know anything about the draft or the players in it, but I saw one mock draft had the Blues selecting Ravensbergen. I've picked up that this is a bit of a weaker draft, but it also seems goalies with round 1 potential is kind of rare too.

It has me curious - if you figure it may take 4-5 years to see if he can develop into an NHL goalie - it may line up with the end of Binner's contract/career. Just curious for the draftniks in the thread if this is something that would get you excited, or nah?

I wouldn’t be happy with that. There’s a reason why so few goalies are drafted in the 1st round - that position is absolutely the hardest to project as a 17-18 year old. Lots of goalies start going off the board in rounds 2 and 3. There’s plenty of Round 1 success stories but also a ton of absolute whiffs as well when it comes to goalies.

Regarding Ravensbergen specifically, I don’t really see the hype. I bet he’ll go in the late 1st as this is a weaker draft but he’s the type id normally slot in the mid to late 2nd or even 3rd. I liked the goalie crops the last 2 drafts quite a bit more than this year’s crop. But I also don’t scout goalies extensively unless one really catches my eye. One hasn’t so far this year. But agree with Kimzey that it may be time to throw a flyer at a goalie with a mid to later round pick (keeping in mind the Blues don’t have a ton of picks this year). Like, if their Russian scout has an eye on the next Zherenko and wants to take a flyer on some kid like that in the 5th-7th round*, then go for it IMO.

*the Blues don’t currently own a 7th this year but it’s not hard to acquire one if they’d really want to. I see it every year. Some of the last picks in the draft getting swapped for a 7th the following year. This will happen if the team due up has no more players on their list and there’s a team that has a guy on their list they want to take a flyer on.

Thanks for the insight! It kind of seems like Zherenko / Ellis / Hofer are in roughly the same age bracket, and the Blues probably can't use all of them, so a goalie was even more intriguing to me to get started on the next generation after those guys. But everything you & seattle & kimzey has said makes perfect sense.

[seattleblue]

On the Ravensbergen question I was paying some attention since he is projected as the top goalie. He actually didn't have a great 7 game series (which his team lost) and my own goalie philosophy is please do not take them with a first round pick unless you have multiple of them and there's a truly outstanding one and then think about it even then. Long live Marek Schwarz. I do think the Blues could stand to draft another goalie this year but not with their first round pick.

Carbonneau. The amount of goals from pretty much everywhere in the O-zone and many from near the front of the net. There was one goal in the highlight pack you shared that he went through everyone against Quebec I think. Not sure if he has the same mentality for getting the puck back or not but thats part of development. What he does do well in driving the net and scoring from the hard areas is hard to teach. Any line could use that type of player.

I have read where Carbonneau has been compared to Boeser. I like what you picked up on about the nature of his goals, I definitely immediately thought "Holloway" was a good description of Carbonneau just double checking before I made an assumption. That is how I feel about it. Another Holloway available in the mid first? Done.

I can see the Boeser comparison but I think on some of those goals it looked like he was going to get the puck in the net one way or the other which reminds me more of Holloways grit and determination. I’d draft Holloway every year if possible.

That one against Moncton where he jumps toward the boards to knock down a clearing attempt for himself, drops the puck to his stick and immediately attacks & fires a laser past the goalie ... that was 100% Holloway. I would be genuinely happy with him as the pick.

[STL fan in MN]

I discount Carbonneau ever so slightly because he’s a late ‘06 and he’s a winger (Cs are simply worth more) but he’s good. And at 19? In this relatively weak draft? I’d take him there all day long. That said, I’d be pretty surprised if he’s still there at 19.

[Nublues69]

Does Ian Cole count at 18 pretty close to 20

[STL fan in MN]

Does Ian Cole count at 18 pretty close to 20

Yes.

Another solid player. Won’t go down as a star but he’s had a way better career than the average 18th overall pick.

2007 annoyed me in the sense that they traded down and the Sharks took Logan Couture with the Blues pick (the Blues really wanted Kane and then Voracek that year) but they at least hit on all 3 1sts they had - Eller, Cole and Perron.

One could argue the development wasn’t the best (I thought they didn’t give Cole enough of an opportunity to establish himself and gave up on him too soon) but at least they got Borts out of him, who spent 10 years here.

Eller’s offense evaporated after his nice shot went kaput after a pretty bad shoulder injury. He’s made a very nice career and I wasn’t a huge fan of the Halak trade but it was a calculated gamble. That wouldn’t be on the scouting staff though.

[IsDurbanodoingtime]

Any insight on Danil Prohkorov? Big winger and power forward .Is he a reach as a late first rounder? Kid can throw his weight around.

[Pierre McGuire]

Does Ian Cole count at 18 pretty close to 20

One could argue the development wasn’t the best (I thought they didn’t give Cole enough of an opportunity to establish himself and gave up on him too soon)

That was all Hitch….he hated Cole