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An Old Friend wrote: ↑07 May 2024 08:38 am I think Riley Greene is well on his way to exceeding expectations...

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:31 am

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑06 Jun 2024 20:44 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑06 Jun 2024 15:33 pmIf you want to make me an offer for MacArthur, I'd listen as well, but as you (26 SVs) are closer to me (28 SVs) than AOF (10 SVs) is, I would be more inclined to want to send him to AOF.

If you’re actually willing to negotiate a reasonable trade, I could offer Westburg+ for one of your top starters (Valdez, Peralta, Berrios). Your Fantasy Pros toy is unlikely to value Westburg correctly, so this may go nowhere…

Westburg would have been more interesting before he went 2-for-21 for his last five games.

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:43 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑07 May 2024 08:38 am I think Riley Greene is well on his way to exceeding expectations...

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:54 am

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:43 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑07 May 2024 08:38 am I think Riley Greene is well on his way to exceeding expectations...

Yeah, I have Greene at .265/.779/48 R/11 HR/40 RBI/5 SB for the rest of the year (13 VORP per FP) vs. Martinez .243/.744/38 R/13 HR/44 RBI/1 SB for the rest of the year (10 VORP).

I also have McArthur at 4.07/1.37/16 SV/2 W/36 K for the rest of the rest of the year (5 VORP) vs. Yates at 3.95/1.36/14 SV/2 W/44 K for the rest of the year (6 VORP).

But for the saves I would have traded him McArthur straight up for Greene without him having to include Cortez (or conversely, I would have taken Cortez straight up for McArthur).

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:58 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:54 am

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:43 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑07 May 2024 08:38 am I think Riley Greene is well on his way to exceeding expectations...

Yeah, I have Greene at .265/.779/48 R/11 HR/40 RBI/5 SB for the rest of the year (13 VORP per FP) vs. Martinez .243/.744/38 R/13 HR/44 RBI/1 SB for the rest of the year (10 VORP).

I also have McArthur at 4.07/1.37/16 SV/2 W/36 K for the rest of the rest of the year (5 VORP) vs. Yates at 3.95/1.36/14 SV/2 W/44 K for the rest of the year (6 VORP).

But for the saves I would have traded him McArthur straight up for Greene without him having to include Cortez (or conversely, I would have taken Cortez straight up for McArthur).

Thanks for the detailed analysis of all the things you never did.

Gathering from your recent posts, you are looking to bolster your SP?

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:54 am He's making you considerably stronger with both Greene and Cortez, which seems counterproductive since you are a much bigger threat to him than I am (at least at the moment).

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 05:06 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:54 am He's making you considerably stronger with both Greene and Cortez, which seems counterproductive since you are a much bigger threat to him than I am (at least at the moment).

He’s making my roster stronger, but not how I originally wanted. Plus, giving him saves at all was not a particularly bright move for anyone with legitimate hopes of winning this league.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 05:11 am

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 05:06 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:54 am He's making you considerably stronger with both Greene and Cortez, which seems counterproductive since you are a much bigger threat to him than I am (at least at the moment).

He’s making my roster stronger, but not how I originally wanted. Plus, giving him saves at all was not a particularly bright move for anyone with legitimate hopes of winning this league.

He's making your roster A LOT stronger, IMO.

That's why I don't really understand the logic a lot. I can see why he would value Yates a bit more than McArthur, but dumping a little excess value to me (who is not a threat right now) would seem to make more sense that dumping excess value to you to pick up SVs.

Honestly, the Cortez/Greene for Yates/Martinez deal is SO lop-sided in your favor, if you were making it with one of the teams at the bottom of the league, I'd be vetoing it. Maybe I should be vetoing it anyway.

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 05:36 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 05:11 am

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 05:06 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:54 am He's making you considerably stronger with both Greene and Cortez, which seems counterproductive since you are a much bigger threat to him than I am (at least at the moment).

He’s making my roster stronger, but not how I originally wanted. Plus, giving him saves at all was not a particularly bright move for anyone with legitimate hopes of winning this league.

He's making your roster A LOT stronger, IMO.

That's why I don't really understand the logic a lot. I can see why he would value Yates a bit more than McArthur, but dumping a little excess value to me (who is not a threat right now) would seem to make more sense that dumping excess value to you to pick up SVs.

Honestly, the Cortez/Greene for Yates/Martinez deal is SO lop-sided in your favor, if you were making it with one of the teams at the bottom of the league, I'd be vetoing it. Maybe I should be vetoing it anyway.

You identified his need for a closer, so you shouldn’t be so confused. Saves are his only major weakness in the standings. That doesn’t make McArthur anything more than the scrub that he is. He wasn’t giving up Greene or Cortes for that… and you need to reassess how you’re evaluating trades if you thought that was possible.

Sorry you couldn’t get a deal done, but you overvalued McArthur. I’d consider trading you either Cortes or Greene, but you need to stop overselling your terrible players.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 05:48 amI recognize McArthur is limited, but he does already have 12 saves (tied for 8th, and by at least one projection might be expected to get 16 more), so he's not "terrible." He's not going to help you in ERA/WHIP as much as "top" closers like Hader, Fairbanks, etc., but that's why he should be available and they are not.

If I can only trade McArthur based on you (or anyone) valuing him as if he's only going to get 4-5 more saves this year, then I might as well bank his saves myself.

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 06:35 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 05:48 amI recognize McArthur is limited, but he does already have 12 saves (tied for 8th, and by at least one projection might be expected to get 16 more), so he's not "terrible." He's not going to help you in ERA/WHIP as much as "top" closers like Hader, Fairbanks, etc., but that's why he should be available and they are not.

If I can only trade McArthur based on you (or anyone) valuing him as if he's only going to get 4-5 more saves this year, then I might as well bank his saves myself.

A single closer (or any reliever) is not going to significantly help in ERA/WHIP, particularly when our innings pool is considerably larger than the average league. You could have dealt Hader or Fairbanks and not hurt yourself much in the standings or your season totals.

McArthur is terrible, and his trade value IS connected to his ERA/WHIP, only because those stats speak to his job security. If he loses the closers job, he becomes entirely worthless in fantasy.

Somehow you are behaving as though McArthur and Yates were nearly equal trade pieces.

ERA/WHIP
McArthur - 4.91/1.36
Yates - 0.84/0.84

Gee, I wonder which guy keeps his job.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 06:48 am

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 06:35 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 05:48 amI recognize McArthur is limited, but he does already have 12 saves (tied for 8th, and by at least one projection might be expected to get 16 more), so he's not "terrible." He's not going to help you in ERA/WHIP as much as "top" closers like Hader, Fairbanks, etc., but that's why he should be available and they are not.

If I can only trade McArthur based on you (or anyone) valuing him as if he's only going to get 4-5 more saves this year, then I might as well bank his saves myself.

A single closer (or any reliever) is not going to significantly help in ERA/WHIP, particularly when our innings pool is considerably larger than the average league. You could have dealt Hader or Fairbanks and not hurt yourself much in the standings or your season totals.

McArthur is terrible, and his trade value IS connected to his ERA/WHIP, only because those stats speak to his job security. If he loses the closers job, he becomes entirely worthless in fantasy.

Somehow you are behaving as though McArthur and Yates were nearly equal trade pieces.

ERA/WHIP
McArthur - 4.91/1.36
Yates - 0.84/0.84

Gee, I wonder which guy keeps his job.

I recognize that closers are not going to help a lot with WHIP/ERA, but sitting where I am in each of those categories, I need every clean inning I can get, even from my RPs.

McArthur has 12 saves, and the only other pitcher on the Royals roster with more than one save is Stratton (3) - and Stratton's ERA (5.76) and WHIP (1.36) are WORSE than McArthur.

McArthur is limited, and has been limited all season already, but it sure doesn't seem like the Royals see anyone unseating him any time soon.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:35 am FWIW - your Yates/Martinez for Cortes/Greene trade is, of course, great for you and pretty bad for AOF. He's paying a huge premium there to go try to buy saves.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 04:54 am Yeah, I have Greene at .265/.779/48 R/11 HR/40 RBI/5 SB for the rest of the year (13 VORP per FP) vs. Martinez .243/.744/38 R/13 HR/44 RBI/1 SB for the rest of the year (10 VORP).

I also have McArthur at 4.07/1.37/16 SV/2 W/36 K for the rest of the rest of the year (5 VORP) vs. Yates at 3.95/1.36/14 SV/2 W/44 K for the rest of the year (6 VORP).

But for the saves I would have traded him McArthur straight up for Greene without him having to include Cortez (or conversely, I would have taken Cortez straight up for McArthur).

He's making you considerably stronger with both Greene and Cortez, which seems counterproductive since you are a much bigger threat to him than I am (at least at the moment).

An Old Friend wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 07:46 am Not that I need to justify the trade, but I think you've had my team pretty wrong thus far. A few notes, though...

You have Martinez hitting .243 why exactly? He hasn't hit that low in a full season in over a decade. He's 97th percentile in barrel rate, 83% in hard hit rate, 73rd in xBA, and 91st in xSLG. Something would have to go very wrong for him to hit .243 the rest of the season and I'm wondering what you think that will be.

Yates has a 1.79 xERA / 2.01 FIP. Yeah, he's not going to go all season without giving up a HR, but you have him regressing big time and McArthur pitching basically exactly to his xERA / FIP. Neither of them walk many guys but Yates misses more bats.

I have a big lead in quality starts and strikeouts. If I can just get to 4 points or so in saves and JD gives me the gains I think I'll get in AVG / OPS, I think it's a good deal for me.

If Soto is hurt, it doesn't matter, though. If Soto is ultimately fine, I think it's +3.5 points in the standings for me if JD hits.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 09:26 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 07:46 am Not that I need to justify the trade, but I think you've had my team pretty wrong thus far. A few notes, though...

You have Martinez hitting .243 why exactly? He hasn't hit that low in a full season in over a decade. He's 97th percentile in barrel rate, 83% in hard hit rate, 73rd in xBA, and 91st in xSLG. Something would have to go very wrong for him to hit .243 the rest of the season and I'm wondering what you think that will be.

Well, regarding Martinez, if we look at all of the FG ROS models, they have him with a ROS BA of .236 - .249 and a ROS OPS of .720 - .770, so the mid-points there are a BA of .243 and an OPS of .745.

Yates has a 1.79 xERA / 2.01 FIP. Yeah, he's not going to go all season without giving up a HR, but you have him regressing big time and McArthur pitching basically exactly to his xERA / FIP. Neither of them walk many guys but Yates misses more bats.

Same observation - the models have Yates with a ROS ERA of 3.88 - 4.06 and an ROS WHIP of 1.20 - 1.34 (with all but one from 1.32 - 1.34). Same models have McArthur with a ROS ERA of 3.88 - 4.56 (so about 0.25 higher at the mid-point) and a ROS WHIP of 1.28 - 1.35 (bit higher).

And if you look at xFIP to account for the SSS HR differences, Yates is 3.27 to McArthur's 3.20.

But the models also have Robertson, on Texas, being better than Yates with a ROS ERA of 3.35 - 3.97 and a ROS WHIP of 1.18 - 1.30. So if Yates does regress, is Robertson waiting there to take his job?

I would never claim that those models will be invariably right in any particular case, but I think we can say they are not groundless either.

I have a big lead in quality starts and strikeouts. If I can just get to 4 points or so in saves and JD gives me the gains I think I'll get in AVG / OPS, I think it's a good deal for me.

If Soto is hurt, it doesn't matter, though. If Soto is ultimately fine, I think it's +3.5 points in the standings for me if JD hits.

You absolutely do have a big lead in QS and K. And I would have taken Cortes for McArthur in what, at least IMO, would have been a trade that might have helped you without you strengthening QV.

Just saying - if I were in your position, I would certainly be working my way up from the bottom of the standings in my bias of who to go out and make a trade with.

An Old Friend wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024 09:45 amQuincy is doing a great job but I'm not worried about him, per se.