The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

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Goldfan
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by Goldfan »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 08:03 am
Goldfan wrote: 10 Jan 2026 07:50 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 05:44 am
Goldfan wrote: 09 Jan 2026 17:25 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 09 Jan 2026 14:51 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: 09 Jan 2026 14:44 pm Yes, this is a major problem. We need one or more superstars, and we need to make a long-term commitment to them to solidify fan loyalty from season to season. The game is human and these factors do matter.
Yes, they will - eventually - have to sign 1, 2, 3 FAs who are "stars" or "superstars." They just don't have to do it this offseason.

Develop the necessary core of young, cost controlled players and THEN start adding "stars" or "superstars" via FA signings.
Matt, we’ve been through this before….
We have a young cheap core NOW. Do you actually think any time soon Bloom farm is going to produce players better than
Herrera
JJ
Winn
Burly
Donny
Gorman(perhaps he can make more contact)
Scott(defense in CF)
Then you need a couple stars

What/Where/Who are these completely “new young core” you always refer to that are going to replace what I listed?
No, they DON'T have a sufficient, critical mass of young talent.

You DON'T yet have Wetherholt making the jump to the majors and actually being a 3, 4, etc. fWAR player.

You DON'T yet have Doyle and/or Mathews making the jump to the major and actually being a 3, 4, etc. pitcher.

See those steps through first, then add from outside the organization to "win now."
You need 9 starters every game. There they are. Again who, what, where are you replacing (Herrera,25-30HR), (Burly 25HR), (JJ, .290), (Winn, .280), (Donny, .290), and hopefully Gorman hits some HR with Scott playing GG D. You add some bats like I’ve stated and you can win ballgames.
Cards Nation has PTSD from watching MO make one bad decision after another and now think that acquiring real talent will just continue that spiral
The current roster may be a 70, 72, 74 win roster in 2026.

You could spend another $80 to $100 million in 2026 to try to win 80, 82, 84 games ($8-$10 million per win).

So you'd "win some more games" and still be mediocre. And, to spend that additional $80 to $100 million, you are probably not just signing guys to 1-2 year contracts. You are making long term commitments to older players who will likely be in decline in 2028, 2029, 2030, etc. when you DO have a sufficient, critical mass of young talent. That's the problem.

Yes, they could/should spend more money this year on veterans like May, Stanek, etc. on short term, 1-2 year contracts.
Again, where are you getting better young players than what I listed? You think a complete different crop from Bloom Farm will be appreciably better than what I listed? Then spend money?
mattmitchl44
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

Goldfan wrote: 10 Jan 2026 08:43 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 08:03 am
Goldfan wrote: 10 Jan 2026 07:50 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 05:44 am
Goldfan wrote: 09 Jan 2026 17:25 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 09 Jan 2026 14:51 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: 09 Jan 2026 14:44 pm Yes, this is a major problem. We need one or more superstars, and we need to make a long-term commitment to them to solidify fan loyalty from season to season. The game is human and these factors do matter.
Yes, they will - eventually - have to sign 1, 2, 3 FAs who are "stars" or "superstars." They just don't have to do it this offseason.

Develop the necessary core of young, cost controlled players and THEN start adding "stars" or "superstars" via FA signings.
Matt, we’ve been through this before….
We have a young cheap core NOW. Do you actually think any time soon Bloom farm is going to produce players better than
Herrera
JJ
Winn
Burly
Donny
Gorman(perhaps he can make more contact)
Scott(defense in CF)
Then you need a couple stars

What/Where/Who are these completely “new young core” you always refer to that are going to replace what I listed?
No, they DON'T have a sufficient, critical mass of young talent.

You DON'T yet have Wetherholt making the jump to the majors and actually being a 3, 4, etc. fWAR player.

You DON'T yet have Doyle and/or Mathews making the jump to the major and actually being a 3, 4, etc. pitcher.

See those steps through first, then add from outside the organization to "win now."
You need 9 starters every game. There they are. Again who, what, where are you replacing (Herrera,25-30HR), (Burly 25HR), (JJ, .290), (Winn, .280), (Donny, .290), and hopefully Gorman hits some HR with Scott playing GG D. You add some bats like I’ve stated and you can win ballgames.
Cards Nation has PTSD from watching MO make one bad decision after another and now think that acquiring real talent will just continue that spiral
The current roster may be a 70, 72, 74 win roster in 2026.

You could spend another $80 to $100 million in 2026 to try to win 80, 82, 84 games ($8-$10 million per win).

So you'd "win some more games" and still be mediocre. And, to spend that additional $80 to $100 million, you are probably not just signing guys to 1-2 year contracts. You are making long term commitments to older players who will likely be in decline in 2028, 2029, 2030, etc. when you DO have a sufficient, critical mass of young talent. That's the problem.

Yes, they could/should spend more money this year on veterans like May, Stanek, etc. on short term, 1-2 year contracts.
Again, where are you getting better young players than what I listed? You think a complete different crop from Bloom Farm will be appreciably better than what I listed? Then spend money?
They SHOULD extend their current cadre of players like Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. if they believe they are part of the core of the team going forward by signing them to longer team, relatively low AAV deals. Those guys can be in their primes for another 4 or 5 years and overlap with the coming talent.

But they absolutely need to add MORE to what they have - they need to actually add Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. to the ML roster and have them start to actually realize their potential at the ML level.

So it's BOTH what they currently have plus more.
rockondlouie
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by rockondlouie »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:01 am They SHOULD extend their current cadre of players like Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. if they believe they are part of the core of the team going forward by signing them to longer team, relatively low AAV deals. Those guys can be in their primes for another 4 or 5 years and overlap with the coming talent.

But they absolutely need to add MORE to what they have - they need to actually add Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. to the ML roster and have them start to actually realize their potential at the ML level.

So it's BOTH what they currently have plus more.
I know you're a big proponent matt as we've had multiple discussions about extensions.

The ONLY one I'd even consider on you list, if he has a strong & HEALTHY 2026, is I. Hererra.

Pass on the others (Winn and Bumbles) but NO to Libby who's not shown he's worthy of the risk giving a pitcher a LT deal.

I don't see a robust market for them once they hit FA.

An overpay would damage the payroll, let them get closer to ARB 2 then re-visit.

Finally

The only one I'd consider giving your early extension to (and only AFTER he's proven it in both Year 1 & 2), is JJW.

If he's as good as advertised, then a six-seven year deal after his Sophomore season would be smart.

JMO
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:13 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:01 am They SHOULD extend their current cadre of players like Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. if they believe they are part of the core of the team going forward by signing them to longer team, relatively low AAV deals. Those guys can be in their primes for another 4 or 5 years and overlap with the coming talent.

But they absolutely need to add MORE to what they have - they need to actually add Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. to the ML roster and have them start to actually realize their potential at the ML level.

So it's BOTH what they currently have plus more.
I know you're a big proponent matt as we've had multiple discussions about extensions.

The ONLY one I'd even consider on you list, if he has a strong & HEALTHY 2026, is I. Hererra.

Pass on the others (Winn and Bumbles) but NO to Libby who's not shown he's worthy of the risk giving a pitcher a LT deal.

I don't see a robust market for them once they hit FA.

An overpay would damage the payroll, let them get closer to ARB 2 then re-visit.

Finally

The only one I'd consider giving your early extension to (and only AFTER he's proven it in both Year 1 & 2), is JJW.

If he's as good as advertised, then a six-seven year deal after his Sophomore season would be smart.

JMO
Again - they have to ASSESS the guys they have - Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. and make a call as to how they project them going forward for the next 4, 5, etc. years. If you decide you don't know enough to make that call, fine, but you have to consider it first.

IF they believe one or more of those guys will be of a talent level to be (1) starting position players or (2) starting pitchers on a future Cardinals roster in 2028, 2029, etc. that sets up to win 90+ games, then you try to get a long team done now at a team friendly AAV.

If you aren't sold on them being at that talent level over the long run or you can't agree with the player on a suitably team friendly AAV that also works for the player, then you don't get a deal done.
rockondlouie
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by rockondlouie »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:22 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:13 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:01 am They SHOULD extend their current cadre of players like Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. if they believe they are part of the core of the team going forward by signing them to longer team, relatively low AAV deals. Those guys can be in their primes for another 4 or 5 years and overlap with the coming talent.

But they absolutely need to add MORE to what they have - they need to actually add Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. to the ML roster and have them start to actually realize their potential at the ML level.

So it's BOTH what they currently have plus more.
I know you're a big proponent matt as we've had multiple discussions about extensions.

The ONLY one I'd even consider on you list, if he has a strong & HEALTHY 2026, is I. Hererra.

Pass on the others (Winn and Bumbles) but NO to Libby who's not shown he's worthy of the risk giving a pitcher a LT deal.

I don't see a robust market for them once they hit FA.

An overpay would damage the payroll, let them get closer to ARB 2 then re-visit.

Finally

The only one I'd consider giving your early extension to (and only AFTER he's proven it in both Year 1 & 2), is JJW.

If he's as good as advertised, then a six-seven year deal after his Sophomore season would be smart.

JMO
Again - they have to ASSESS the guys they have - Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. and make a call as to how they project them going forward for the next 4, 5, etc. years. If you decide you don't know enough to make that call, fine, but you have to consider it first.

IF they believe one or more of those guys will be of a talent level to be (1) starting position players or (2) starting pitchers on a future Cardinals roster in 2028, 2029, etc. that sets up to win 90+ games, then you try to get a long team done now at a team friendly AAV.

If you aren't sold on them being at that talent level over the long run or you can't agree with the player on a suitably team friendly AAV that also works for the player, then you don't get a deal done.
Pretty sure we already know who Winn (great glove, "meh" bat and base stealer), Bumbles (hitter on the upswing but more of a B.A. guy than he is a run producer, "meh" fielder) and Libby (#3 starter at best) are by now.

The only one we need to learn more about is Hererra and that only relates to health, we know the bat is elite.

Your bar (starting position players or starting pitchers) is too low for giving a L-T deal for my taste matt.

I ONLY hand out L-T extensions to star players who show all-star level talent, not guys who may only be holding down a spot until they're pushed aside by better talent.

Locking into guys like Winn or Bumbles for six-seven years could end up being a huge payroll mistake if this is as good as they get.

And no way I give any starting pitcher a L-T extension unless we have the next B. Gibson/C. Carpenter some time in the future, too may injury risk that can make a deal like that terrible for a less than all-star talent.
mattmitchl44
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:32 am Your bar (starting position players or starting pitchers) is too low for giving a L-T deal for my taste matt.

I ONLY hand out L-T extensions to star players who show all-star level talent, not guys who may only be holding down a spot until they're pushed aside by better talent.

Locking into guys like Winn or Bumbles for six-seven years could end up being a huge payroll mistake if this is as good as they get.
No.

Again, any long-term deal has to be at the right price point for the team.

You aren't going to lock up a guy (e.g., Burleson) who let's say you project as a solid, 2+ fWAR 1B for 4-5 years to the same contract as a guy (e.g., Wetherholt, at some point) who let's say you project as a 4+ fWAR All-Star for 4-5 years.

You have to get a Burleson signed at a price point that makes sense for the team relative to his talent level, and a Wetherholt signed at price point that makes sense for the team relative to his talent level.

But the price point that makes sense for a Burleson is NEVER going to be so high that it could be a "huge" payroll mistake. Right now, for Burleson, if I believed his 2025 season was what I could expect going forward, I wouldn't go over about 4 yrs./$30 million with a team option year or two. A $7.5 million AAV contract - even if Burleson backs up to being a 1 or 1.5 fWAR player isn't a "huge" mistake.
ScotchMIrish
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by ScotchMIrish »

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: 10 Jan 2026 08:13 am
ScotchMIrish wrote: 10 Jan 2026 06:49 am I don't know that it's being ignored as much as they haven't drafted and developed such a player in many years.
It seems they have been able to identify core players to help build mortar to create a solidifying base, but as you stated, they haven't been able to draft and or develop that player. I personally think it's tied to the draft more, those players tend to surface quickly without much assistance.
Alcantara won the Cy Young award. Gallen was Arizona's ace when they won the NL and went to the world series. The problem is neither had good stats while in the Cardinals organization. Alcantara's catcher in the minors said the Cardinals were not letting Alcantara throw a 3 seam fastball and they were marking it down as a 4 seam fastball because Alcantara wanted to throw a 2 seam.

Can't have one without the other. Draft and develop. It's more important than ever now with the collapse of the tv deal and the team getting revenue sharing.
Goldfan
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by Goldfan »

rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:32 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:22 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:13 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:01 am They SHOULD extend their current cadre of players like Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. if they believe they are part of the core of the team going forward by signing them to longer team, relatively low AAV deals. Those guys can be in their primes for another 4 or 5 years and overlap with the coming talent.

But they absolutely need to add MORE to what they have - they need to actually add Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. to the ML roster and have them start to actually realize their potential at the ML level.

So it's BOTH what they currently have plus more.
I know you're a big proponent matt as we've had multiple discussions about extensions.

The ONLY one I'd even consider on you list, if he has a strong & HEALTHY 2026, is I. Hererra.

Pass on the others (Winn and Bumbles) but NO to Libby who's not shown he's worthy of the risk giving a pitcher a LT deal.

I don't see a robust market for them once they hit FA.

An overpay would damage the payroll, let them get closer to ARB 2 then re-visit.

Finally

The only one I'd consider giving your early extension to (and only AFTER he's proven it in both Year 1 & 2), is JJW.

If he's as good as advertised, then a six-seven year deal after his Sophomore season would be smart.

JMO
Again - they have to ASSESS the guys they have - Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. and make a call as to how they project them going forward for the next 4, 5, etc. years. If you decide you don't know enough to make that call, fine, but you have to consider it first.

IF they believe one or more of those guys will be of a talent level to be (1) starting position players or (2) starting pitchers on a future Cardinals roster in 2028, 2029, etc. that sets up to win 90+ games, then you try to get a long team done now at a team friendly AAV.

If you aren't sold on them being at that talent level over the long run or you can't agree with the player on a suitably team friendly AAV that also works for the player, then you don't get a deal done.
Pretty sure we already know who Winn (great glove, "meh" bat and base stealer), Bumbles (hitter on the upswing but more of a B.A. guy than he is a run producer, "meh" fielder) and Libby (#3 starter at best) are by now.

The only one we need to learn more about is Hererra and that only relates to health, we know the bat is elite.

Your bar (starting position players or starting pitchers) is too low for giving a L-T deal for my taste matt.

I ONLY hand out L-T extensions to star players who show all-star level talent, not guys who may only be holding down a spot until they're pushed aside by better talent.

Locking into guys like Winn or Bumbles for six-seven years could end up being a huge payroll mistake if this is as good as they get.

And no way I give any starting pitcher a L-T extension unless we have the next B. Gibson/C. Carpenter some time in the future, too may injury risk that can make a deal like that terrible for a less than all-star talent.
I’ll ask both of you.
If most of the talent currently starting isn’t good enough
BDW isn’t spending
There isn’t superior talent in minors
Bloom hasn’t traded for one position player
Where and when will all these upgraded players come from??
You’re speaking about an entire starting quad that eclipses the production I listed above and they’re not even currently in the org???
mattmitchl44
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

Goldfan wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:47 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:32 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:22 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:13 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:01 am They SHOULD extend their current cadre of players like Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. if they believe they are part of the core of the team going forward by signing them to longer team, relatively low AAV deals. Those guys can be in their primes for another 4 or 5 years and overlap with the coming talent.

But they absolutely need to add MORE to what they have - they need to actually add Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. to the ML roster and have them start to actually realize their potential at the ML level.

So it's BOTH what they currently have plus more.
I know you're a big proponent matt as we've had multiple discussions about extensions.

The ONLY one I'd even consider on you list, if he has a strong & HEALTHY 2026, is I. Hererra.

Pass on the others (Winn and Bumbles) but NO to Libby who's not shown he's worthy of the risk giving a pitcher a LT deal.

I don't see a robust market for them once they hit FA.

An overpay would damage the payroll, let them get closer to ARB 2 then re-visit.

Finally

The only one I'd consider giving your early extension to (and only AFTER he's proven it in both Year 1 & 2), is JJW.

If he's as good as advertised, then a six-seven year deal after his Sophomore season would be smart.

JMO
Again - they have to ASSESS the guys they have - Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. and make a call as to how they project them going forward for the next 4, 5, etc. years. If you decide you don't know enough to make that call, fine, but you have to consider it first.

IF they believe one or more of those guys will be of a talent level to be (1) starting position players or (2) starting pitchers on a future Cardinals roster in 2028, 2029, etc. that sets up to win 90+ games, then you try to get a long team done now at a team friendly AAV.

If you aren't sold on them being at that talent level over the long run or you can't agree with the player on a suitably team friendly AAV that also works for the player, then you don't get a deal done.
Pretty sure we already know who Winn (great glove, "meh" bat and base stealer), Bumbles (hitter on the upswing but more of a B.A. guy than he is a run producer, "meh" fielder) and Libby (#3 starter at best) are by now.

The only one we need to learn more about is Hererra and that only relates to health, we know the bat is elite.

Your bar (starting position players or starting pitchers) is too low for giving a L-T deal for my taste matt.

I ONLY hand out L-T extensions to star players who show all-star level talent, not guys who may only be holding down a spot until they're pushed aside by better talent.

Locking into guys like Winn or Bumbles for six-seven years could end up being a huge payroll mistake if this is as good as they get.

And no way I give any starting pitcher a L-T extension unless we have the next B. Gibson/C. Carpenter some time in the future, too may injury risk that can make a deal like that terrible for a less than all-star talent.
I’ll ask both of you.
If most of the talent currently starting isn’t good enough
BDW isn’t spending
There isn’t superior talent in minors
Bloom hasn’t traded for one position player
Where and when will all these upgraded players come from??
You’re speaking about an entire starting quad that eclipses the production I listed above and they’re not even currently in the org???
I think a number of players - Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, maybe Scott, maybe McGreevy - could well be good enough to be part of a cast of solid position players/back end SPs for winning Cardinals rosters 4, 5 years down the line.

But they need to add more young talent - and in particular more young, All-Star level or near All-Star level talent - like what we hope a Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. might be.

So, yes, there is superior potential talent in the minors that the Cardinals hope to have performing in the majors in the next 1, 2, 3 years.
Goldfan
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by Goldfan »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:52 am
Goldfan wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:47 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:32 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:22 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:13 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:01 am They SHOULD extend their current cadre of players like Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. if they believe they are part of the core of the team going forward by signing them to longer team, relatively low AAV deals. Those guys can be in their primes for another 4 or 5 years and overlap with the coming talent.

But they absolutely need to add MORE to what they have - they need to actually add Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. to the ML roster and have them start to actually realize their potential at the ML level.

So it's BOTH what they currently have plus more.
I know you're a big proponent matt as we've had multiple discussions about extensions.

The ONLY one I'd even consider on you list, if he has a strong & HEALTHY 2026, is I. Hererra.

Pass on the others (Winn and Bumbles) but NO to Libby who's not shown he's worthy of the risk giving a pitcher a LT deal.

I don't see a robust market for them once they hit FA.

An overpay would damage the payroll, let them get closer to ARB 2 then re-visit.

Finally

The only one I'd consider giving your early extension to (and only AFTER he's proven it in both Year 1 & 2), is JJW.

If he's as good as advertised, then a six-seven year deal after his Sophomore season would be smart.

JMO
Again - they have to ASSESS the guys they have - Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. and make a call as to how they project them going forward for the next 4, 5, etc. years. If you decide you don't know enough to make that call, fine, but you have to consider it first.

IF they believe one or more of those guys will be of a talent level to be (1) starting position players or (2) starting pitchers on a future Cardinals roster in 2028, 2029, etc. that sets up to win 90+ games, then you try to get a long team done now at a team friendly AAV.

If you aren't sold on them being at that talent level over the long run or you can't agree with the player on a suitably team friendly AAV that also works for the player, then you don't get a deal done.
Pretty sure we already know who Winn (great glove, "meh" bat and base stealer), Bumbles (hitter on the upswing but more of a B.A. guy than he is a run producer, "meh" fielder) and Libby (#3 starter at best) are by now.

The only one we need to learn more about is Hererra and that only relates to health, we know the bat is elite.

Your bar (starting position players or starting pitchers) is too low for giving a L-T deal for my taste matt.

I ONLY hand out L-T extensions to star players who show all-star level talent, not guys who may only be holding down a spot until they're pushed aside by better talent.

Locking into guys like Winn or Bumbles for six-seven years could end up being a huge payroll mistake if this is as good as they get.

And no way I give any starting pitcher a L-T extension unless we have the next B. Gibson/C. Carpenter some time in the future, too may injury risk that can make a deal like that terrible for a less than all-star talent.
I’ll ask both of you.
If most of the talent currently starting isn’t good enough
BDW isn’t spending
There isn’t superior talent in minors
Bloom hasn’t traded for one position player
Where and when will all these upgraded players come from??
You’re speaking about an entire starting quad that eclipses the production I listed above and they’re not even currently in the org???
I think a number of players - Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, maybe Scott, maybe McGreevy - could well be good enough to be part of a cast of solid position players/back end SPs for winning Cardinals rosters 4, 5 years down the line.

But they need to add more young talent - and in particular more young, All-Star level or near All-Star level talent - like what we hope a Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. might be.

So, yes, there is superior potential talent in the minors that the Cardinals hope to have performing in the majors in the next 1, 2, 3 years.
I’m counting JJ as a starter in ‘26. You list Baez?? One guy. You need 5-6 others…..you say All-stars??? Again drafting these fellas, if every one hits, is going to take 4-5 yrs….IF THEY ALL HIT
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by rockondlouie »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:45 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:32 am Your bar (starting position players or starting pitchers) is too low for giving a L-T deal for my taste matt.

I ONLY hand out L-T extensions to star players who show all-star level talent, not guys who may only be holding down a spot until they're pushed aside by better talent.

Locking into guys like Winn or Bumbles for six-seven years could end up being a huge payroll mistake if this is as good as they get.
No.

Again, any long-term deal has to be at the right price point for the team.

You aren't going to lock up a guy (e.g., Burleson) who let's say you project as a solid, 2+ fWAR 1B for 4-5 years to the same contract as a guy (e.g., Wetherholt, at some point) who let's say you project as a 4+ fWAR All-Star for 4-5 years.

You have to get a Burleson signed at a price point that makes sense for the team relative to his talent level, and a Wetherholt signed at price point that makes sense for the team relative to his talent level.

But the price point that makes sense for a Burleson is NEVER going to be so high that it could be a "huge" payroll mistake. Right now, for Burleson, if I believed his 2025 season was what I could expect going forward, I wouldn't go over about 4 yrs./$30 million with a team option year or two. A $7.5 million AAV contract - even if Burleson backs up to being a 1 or 1.5 fWAR player isn't a "huge" mistake.
I could live w/that for Burly.
mattmitchl44
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

Goldfan wrote: 10 Jan 2026 10:02 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:52 am
Goldfan wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:47 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:32 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:22 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:13 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:01 am They SHOULD extend their current cadre of players like Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. if they believe they are part of the core of the team going forward by signing them to longer team, relatively low AAV deals. Those guys can be in their primes for another 4 or 5 years and overlap with the coming talent.

But they absolutely need to add MORE to what they have - they need to actually add Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. to the ML roster and have them start to actually realize their potential at the ML level.

So it's BOTH what they currently have plus more.
I know you're a big proponent matt as we've had multiple discussions about extensions.

The ONLY one I'd even consider on you list, if he has a strong & HEALTHY 2026, is I. Hererra.

Pass on the others (Winn and Bumbles) but NO to Libby who's not shown he's worthy of the risk giving a pitcher a LT deal.

I don't see a robust market for them once they hit FA.

An overpay would damage the payroll, let them get closer to ARB 2 then re-visit.

Finally

The only one I'd consider giving your early extension to (and only AFTER he's proven it in both Year 1 & 2), is JJW.

If he's as good as advertised, then a six-seven year deal after his Sophomore season would be smart.

JMO
Again - they have to ASSESS the guys they have - Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, etc. and make a call as to how they project them going forward for the next 4, 5, etc. years. If you decide you don't know enough to make that call, fine, but you have to consider it first.

IF they believe one or more of those guys will be of a talent level to be (1) starting position players or (2) starting pitchers on a future Cardinals roster in 2028, 2029, etc. that sets up to win 90+ games, then you try to get a long team done now at a team friendly AAV.

If you aren't sold on them being at that talent level over the long run or you can't agree with the player on a suitably team friendly AAV that also works for the player, then you don't get a deal done.
Pretty sure we already know who Winn (great glove, "meh" bat and base stealer), Bumbles (hitter on the upswing but more of a B.A. guy than he is a run producer, "meh" fielder) and Libby (#3 starter at best) are by now.

The only one we need to learn more about is Hererra and that only relates to health, we know the bat is elite.

Your bar (starting position players or starting pitchers) is too low for giving a L-T deal for my taste matt.

I ONLY hand out L-T extensions to star players who show all-star level talent, not guys who may only be holding down a spot until they're pushed aside by better talent.

Locking into guys like Winn or Bumbles for six-seven years could end up being a huge payroll mistake if this is as good as they get.

And no way I give any starting pitcher a L-T extension unless we have the next B. Gibson/C. Carpenter some time in the future, too may injury risk that can make a deal like that terrible for a less than all-star talent.
I’ll ask both of you.
If most of the talent currently starting isn’t good enough
BDW isn’t spending
There isn’t superior talent in minors
Bloom hasn’t traded for one position player
Where and when will all these upgraded players come from??
You’re speaking about an entire starting quad that eclipses the production I listed above and they’re not even currently in the org???
I think a number of players - Winn, Burleson, Herrera, Liberatore, maybe Scott, maybe McGreevy - could well be good enough to be part of a cast of solid position players/back end SPs for winning Cardinals rosters 4, 5 years down the line.

But they need to add more young talent - and in particular more young, All-Star level or near All-Star level talent - like what we hope a Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, Baez, etc. might be.

So, yes, there is superior potential talent in the minors that the Cardinals hope to have performing in the majors in the next 1, 2, 3 years.
I’m counting JJ as a starter in ‘26. You list Baez?? One guy. You need 5-6 others…..you say All-stars??? Again drafting these fellas, if every one hits, is going to take 4-5 yrs….IF THEY ALL HIT
I think Winn is a potential A-S level talent. I think Wetherholt is a potential A-S level talent. Joshua Baez took a huge step forward in 2025 and is on my radar as a potential A-S level talent in another 2-3 years. Those three with Burleson, Herrera, and Scott (if he could hit more), give you six. Maybe you can turn around Walker, Gorman or both to be at least solid ML regulars. Bernal and R. Rodriguez are getting a lot of attention as future catchers. Then you can talk about adding a "star" bat or two from outside.

If two or three of McGreevy, Liberatore, Fitts, Dobbins, etc. can be solid mid-to-back end SPs, and then Doyle and Mathews can be #2/#3 SPs then you can talk about adding a front-of-rotation SP from outside.
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by Jeff Goldblum »

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 06:02 am
Jeff Goldblum wrote: 10 Jan 2026 05:45 am Why is it so difficult for some of you to understand that they are tearing it all down?
Maybe it’s not the understanding of said event; maybe it’s the disbelief that such an event occurred with us.

Is there a difference.
Disbelief? We've all been watching Mozeliak run this team in the ground for 10 years. We should all be happy that he is finally gone and they are taking the necessary steps to rebuild what was burnt to the ground.
WeeVikes
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by WeeVikes »

Jeff Goldblum wrote: 10 Jan 2026 10:28 am
sikeston bulldog2 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 06:02 am
Jeff Goldblum wrote: 10 Jan 2026 05:45 am Why is it so difficult for some of you to understand that they are tearing it all down?
Maybe it’s not the understanding of said event; maybe it’s the disbelief that such an event occurred with us.

Is there a difference.
Disbelief? We've all been watching Mozeliak run this team in the ground for 10 years. We should all be happy that he is finally gone and they are taking the necessary steps to rebuild what was burnt to the ground.
Denial is a heckuva drug…
CorneliusWolfe
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:45 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:32 am Your bar (starting position players or starting pitchers) is too low for giving a L-T deal for my taste matt.

I ONLY hand out L-T extensions to star players who show all-star level talent, not guys who may only be holding down a spot until they're pushed aside by better talent.

Locking into guys like Winn or Bumbles for six-seven years could end up being a huge payroll mistake if this is as good as they get.
No.

Again, any long-term deal has to be at the right price point for the team.

You aren't going to lock up a guy (e.g., Burleson) who let's say you project as a solid, 2+ fWAR 1B for 4-5 years to the same contract as a guy (e.g., Wetherholt, at some point) who let's say you project as a 4+ fWAR All-Star for 4-5 years.

You have to get a Burleson signed at a price point that makes sense for the team relative to his talent level, and a Wetherholt signed at price point that makes sense for the team relative to his talent level.

But the price point that makes sense for a Burleson is NEVER going to be so high that it could be a "huge" payroll mistake. Right now, for Burleson, if I believed his 2025 season was what I could expect going forward, I wouldn't go over about 4 yrs./$30 million with a team option year or two. A $7.5 million AAV contract - even if Burleson backs up to being a 1 or 1.5 fWAR player isn't a "huge" mistake.
You do realize these “price points” that make sense for the team, rarely ever makes sense for the players themselves, right? It’s why there are arbitration hearings every year, labor disputes, lockouts etc.

Why should we back ownership’s obvious and unreasonable goal to build a contender well under market value?

We’d all like to buy a better house or car for a tiny fraction of the value of our current ones, but it’s not realistic.
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

CorneliusWolfe wrote: 10 Jan 2026 11:06 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:45 am
rockondlouie wrote: 10 Jan 2026 09:32 am Your bar (starting position players or starting pitchers) is too low for giving a L-T deal for my taste matt.

I ONLY hand out L-T extensions to star players who show all-star level talent, not guys who may only be holding down a spot until they're pushed aside by better talent.

Locking into guys like Winn or Bumbles for six-seven years could end up being a huge payroll mistake if this is as good as they get.
No.

Again, any long-term deal has to be at the right price point for the team.

You aren't going to lock up a guy (e.g., Burleson) who let's say you project as a solid, 2+ fWAR 1B for 4-5 years to the same contract as a guy (e.g., Wetherholt, at some point) who let's say you project as a 4+ fWAR All-Star for 4-5 years.

You have to get a Burleson signed at a price point that makes sense for the team relative to his talent level, and a Wetherholt signed at price point that makes sense for the team relative to his talent level.

But the price point that makes sense for a Burleson is NEVER going to be so high that it could be a "huge" payroll mistake. Right now, for Burleson, if I believed his 2025 season was what I could expect going forward, I wouldn't go over about 4 yrs./$30 million with a team option year or two. A $7.5 million AAV contract - even if Burleson backs up to being a 1 or 1.5 fWAR player isn't a "huge" mistake.
You do realize these “price points” that make sense for the team, rarely ever makes sense for the players themselves, right? It’s why there are arbitration hearings every year, labor disputes, lockouts etc.

Why should we back ownership’s obvious and unreasonable goal to build a contender well under market value?

We’d all like to buy a better house or car for a tiny fraction of the value of our current ones, but it’s not realistic.
Young players sign on for the "life changing" security of an initial long term contracts. That's why they sign these deals - security.

$7.5 million a year for four years doesn't mean much to a $2+ billion organization like the Cardinals, but it means A LOT to a guy like Burleson.

And I back ownership's goal of getting players signed to such deals because, ultimately, it means they can stretch their resources farther, assemble more talent on the ML roster, and give themselves a better chance of winning a WS.
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