May deal terms officially announced

[mattmitchl44]

FG's model predictions for May in 2026:

152 IP
8.33 K/9
3.32 BB/9
1.13 HR/9
4.20 ERA

[sikeston bulldog2]

FG's model predictions for May in 2026:

152 IP
8.33 K/9
3.32 BB/9
1.13 HR/9
4.20 ERA

How accurate are these predictions.

[ScotchMIrish]

The new face of the franchise has been signed. Cardinals 2026 marketing slogan: Come and see your Cardinals players be "dust in May"!

May has 6.059 years of service time and will be 28 in 2026.
He has never delivered more than $10.1M in value in any season so far.
So this is the Cardinals paying May $12.5M to be what he's never been before.

If he is successful for the 1st time, he will decline his option and leave as a free agent.
If he fails for the 7th consecutive time, they wasted $12.5M on a pitcher who has managed to throw more than 56 IP only once.

Fits with the Gorman/Walker theme of hoping for a dramatic turnaround.

Yeah, this is a major c*** shoot. We shall see soon enough.

The money in baseball astounds me. $12.5 million for a pitcher with chronic health issues.

Despite spending most of his career throwing fewer than 130 innings per season, Blake Snell got an AAV north of 36 mil for 5 years. That's why Dustin May gets 12.5 mil.

It still astounds me. The owners wonder why blue collar people no longer attend as many games as they used to. Tickets are sky high to pay these salaries. $12 million to pitch 20 times a year. Good work if you can get it.

[sikeston bulldog2]

The new face of the franchise has been signed. Cardinals 2026 marketing slogan: Come and see your Cardinals players be "dust in May"!

May has 6.059 years of service time and will be 28 in 2026.
He has never delivered more than $10.1M in value in any season so far.
So this is the Cardinals paying May $12.5M to be what he's never been before.

If he is successful for the 1st time, he will decline his option and leave as a free agent.
If he fails for the 7th consecutive time, they wasted $12.5M on a pitcher who has managed to throw more than 56 IP only once.

Fits with the Gorman/Walker theme of hoping for a dramatic turnaround.

Yeah, this is a major c*** shoot. We shall see soon enough.

The money in baseball astounds me. $12.5 million for a pitcher with chronic health issues.

Despite spending most of his career throwing fewer than 130 innings per season, Blake Snell got an AAV north of 36 mil for 5 years. That's why Dustin May gets 12.5 mil.

It still astounds me. The owners wonder why blue collar people no longer attend as many games as they used to. Tickets are sky high to pay these salaries.

I don’t know why it astounds you. All things are at all time highs. Once you pay the essentials not much left as you noted. This doesn’t affect the owners like it does the blue collar.

[mattmitchl44]

FG's model predictions for May in 2026:

152 IP
8.33 K/9
3.32 BB/9
1.13 HR/9
4.20 ERA

How accurate are these predictions.

The models will give you a "best estimate," but actual results could be significantly different. Obviously, for example, May could get hurt in ST and be out for the entire year.

The model can only really tell you: based off his last season, and to some extent what he showed in prior seasons, his age, etc., this is a reasonable expectation if he remains as healthy as he could be expected to be in 2026.

[sikeston bulldog2]

FG's model predictions for May in 2026:

152 IP
8.33 K/9
3.32 BB/9
1.13 HR/9
4.20 ERA

How accurate are these predictions.

The models will give you a "best estimate," but actual results could be significantly different. Obviously, for example, May could get hurt in ST and be out for the entire year.

The model can only really tell you: based off his last season, and to some extent what he showed in prior seasons, his age, etc., this is a reasonable expectation if he remains as healthy as he could be expected to be in 2026.

Thanx. I think he stays healthy. In fact I see a 15-6 type year, provided he is allowed to pitch for not the sixth and seventh innings. No bullpen No Decisions.

Is a 15-6 season in his kit bag.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I like the signing, but to the folks thinking he will stay healthy- did you not learn anything from the Steven Matz experience? I don't think anyone said Matz was a bad pitcher. Over time it became clear that you couldn't count on him for 20 starts. I'm hoping for the best, but last year was his career high for innings at 132. Maybe in this case one year is a trend?

[sikeston bulldog2]

I like the signing, but to the folks thinking he will stay healthy- did you not learn anything from the Steven Matz experience? I don't think anyone said Matz was a bad pitcher. Over time it became clear that you couldn't count on him for 20 starts. I'm hoping for the best, but last year was his career high for innings at 132. Maybe in this case one year is a trend?

Even if 132 is the new norm that’s 22 six inning starts.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I like the signing, but to the folks thinking he will stay healthy- did you not learn anything from the Steven Matz experience? I don't think anyone said Matz was a bad pitcher. Over time it became clear that you couldn't count on him for 20 starts. I'm hoping for the best, but last year was his career high for innings at 132. Maybe in this case one year is a trend?

Even if 132 is the new norm that’s 22 six inning starts.

Well, let's take it to the board. What says the board on Dustin May's innings this year? Over 132, or under 132?

[sikeston bulldog2]

I like the signing, but to the folks thinking he will stay healthy- did you not learn anything from the Steven Matz experience? I don't think anyone said Matz was a bad pitcher. Over time it became clear that you couldn't count on him for 20 starts. I'm hoping for the best, but last year was his career high for innings at 132. Maybe in this case one year is a trend?

Even if 132 is the new norm that’s 22 six inning starts.

Well, let's take it to the board. What says the board on Dustin May's innings this year? Over 132, or under 132?

Over. Prove it year. New team. Defensive team.

[AnExParrot]

The new face of the franchise has been signed. Cardinals 2026 marketing slogan: Come and see your Cardinals players be "dust in May"!

May has 6.059 years of service time and will be 28 in 2026.
He has never delivered more than $10.1M in value in any season so far.
So this is the Cardinals paying May $12.5M to be what he's never been before.

If he is successful for the 1st time, he will decline his option and leave as a free agent.
If he fails for the 7th consecutive time, they wasted $12.5M on a pitcher who has managed to throw more than 56 IP only once.

Fits with the Gorman/Walker theme of hoping for a dramatic turnaround.

Yeah, this is a major c*** shoot. We shall see soon enough.

The money in baseball astounds me. $12.5 million for a pitcher with chronic health issues.

Despite spending most of his career throwing fewer than 130 innings per season, Blake Snell got an AAV north of 36 mil for 5 years. That's why Dustin May gets 12.5 mil.

It still astounds me. The owners wonder why blue collar people no longer attend as many games as they used to. Tickets are sky high to pay these salaries. $12 million to pitch 20 times a year. Good work if you can get it.

You can get a ticket for under $10 most days of the week - that's cheaper than a seat in a movie theater. If a fan wants to go to a game(s) all but the truly destitute can do so.

[RunSup]

The new face of the franchise has been signed. Cardinals 2026 marketing slogan: Come and see your Cardinals players be "dust in May"!

May has 6.059 years of service time and will be 28 in 2026.
He has never delivered more than $10.1M in value in any season so far.
So this is the Cardinals paying May $12.5M to be what he's never been before.

If he is successful for the 1st time, he will decline his option and leave as a free agent.
If he fails for the 7th consecutive time, they wasted $12.5M on a pitcher who has managed to throw more than 56 IP only once.

Fits with the Gorman/Walker theme of hoping for a dramatic turnaround.

May is here to pitch innings in 2026 and let other arms develop in AAA. The team needs arms.

If the Cardinals stink and May is good they can trade him at the deadline.

If May is worthy they can work to extend him. Health risk accepted. Just don't eat salad.

Pitching innings has not been his area of strength.

It helps if you give up all hope for 2026. Look forward to the great season that 2028 will be.

Yeah I gotta find other things to do. Maybe go to the Zoo and Forest Park more often. Explore the Blues and Chess museums. Find interesting good eats. Read a book?

But really I have trouble looking away from this team.

PS. I used to feel things too about this team too. I embrace the grey numbness now. (That's gotta be a song reference somehow)

[rockondlouie]

Thx strummer

I could get burned by this but I think May could be a huge surprise in 2026 as long a she stays healthy.

I don’t think there is anybody who doesn’t think he’ll pitch pretty well, if he’s healthy. But that is the BIG question!
Will he stay healthy enough to justify 12.5 million dollars. If he’s healthy, it’s a steal, but hasn’t been to date.
The Cardinals aren’t going to spend a lot of money on next year’s team, we all know they can afford to, but they’re not going to do it. So, what little money they are willing to spend, they just spent 12.5 mil of it on a big risk. This move really looks a lot like something Mo would do. Based a move on a hope and a prayer. Let’s hope Bloom has better luck at it than Mo did.

They needed a starter and that $12.5M comes from the savings they achieved from dealing S. Gray w/plenty of money from that deal left over.

I've always said BDWJr's business plan has been to re-invest any contract money that comes off the books, good to see that hasn't changed.

ANY pitcher is a risk w/injury right around the corner on every pitch.

May passed his physical and is a sound as any pitcher at this time.

Let's hope it stays that way.

[rockondlouie]

Thx strummer

I could get burned by this but I think May could be a huge surprise in 2026 as long a she stays healthy.

Rock if you get burned , so do I. Him or Mahle were the 2 that I would hope they would go after. High upside, low cost options. I am going to predict he stays healthy, wins 15 games with a 3.78 ERA next year.
What the old saying, wish in one hand, ____, in the other! LOL The guy has just nasty stuff and I am rolling with the due to stay healthy factor with him. Will be fun to look back next year at this time and see how "charred" we both are.

Hey, Mahle was my second choice too zuck:

by rockondlouie » 26 Nov 2025 10:22 am

Agree w/others JoJo likely part of a package w/Donny if C. Bloom is to land a young major league starter w/years of control.

Of the one-year guys, I'd take a shot at:

Dustin May
Tyler Mahle

[rockondlouie]

Thx strummer

I could get burned by this but I think May could be a huge surprise in 2026 as long a she stays healthy.

I'm bullish on the guy. Still young. Always had knock-out stuff. We didn't give much less to guys like Lynn or Gibson, and in the case of Gibson, guys who never had knock-out stuff.

Worst case scenario, he's a bum and/or can't stay healthy and he's gone by this time next year.

Unlike Lance and Kyle, Mays got upside left in his young career.

Low Risk/High reward move.

I love it!

Agreed.
And, the move confirms what I have been saying for months - Bloom is NOT willing to throw away the 2026 season.

Same here mel

Been saying for many months this isn't Mo in charge, Bloom is capable of Walking (rebuilding and restocking the minor league system) & Chewing Gum (still fielding a decent 2026/2027 team) at the same time.

[rockondlouie]

Thx strummer

I could get burned by this but I think May could be a huge surprise in 2026 as long a she stays healthy.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... du01.shtml

Looking at his numbers I'd say walks are a little high consider the strikeout numbers. Pitched 6 innings 11 times in 23 starts in 2025. Ceiling probably a #3 starter but the big if obviously is staying healthy.

Yet another year further from his injuries and hopefully that control is sharper!

I'd say given his pedigree if he were to stay healthy and reach his full potential, then he's got low #2 stuff and his floor should be that #3.