Contenders targeting high end depth at SP

[ICCFIM2]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

You know that is their 2025 pitching line. What is silly about comparing pitching lines and then laughing at someone paying $210M for that? That is crazy. Like I said, I understand Cease is the better pitcher. Having said that, would you be happy if the Cards had signed him to that deal? In particular if that meant he was the only high priced pitcher the Cards would sign?

Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability.
Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed
and given more direction?

I'm sure they do along with the league copying the 6 SP 4-5 solid RP's
Then rotate with the minors. Will the Cards attempt to control the
innings with the youth even in the event of full health?

Lets say the Cardinals get their payroll back up to $180M. How many $30M pitchers do you think that payroll supports, 1? 2? Do you want Dylan Cease to be the 1? Yes, his stuff has always been good. His results however have been very inconsistent. There were constant complaints on this board that Sonny Gray was not an ace. If you compare Gray to Cease, his results are light years better than Cease and his stuff is at least equivalent. No where did I claim Mikolas was better than Cease, I even stated that he was not. I will state that for 7/$210M I would not sign Cease. Signing mid range guys like him to long expense free agent contracts is how the Cards ended up where they are to begin with. Under the $180M payroll model, he precludes the Cards from getting a true ace.

Copying the Dodgers model of more than 5 ML ready SPs is great. As far as I can tell, that is exactly what the Cards are trying to do by stockpiling young arms. I doubt the Cards ever get in on a Skubal or a Skenes. When you look at the top 20 SPs by ERA in the MLs, almost all of them are on contenders except for Skenes. It is hard to imagine any of these teams will part with one of them. Joe Ryan at #18 is with the Twins and has 2 years control remaining. Probably not in the Cards window. It seems to me the right answer for the Cards is to stock arms this offseason. That gives them a lot of trade capital to try and get the right guy in the 2026 offseason to hopefully give us the young ace we all covet. Just don't sign the Dylan Cease's of the world to long term contracts. That is a recipe for failure.

[renostl]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

You know that is their 2025 pitching line. What is silly about comparing pitching lines and then laughing at someone paying $210M for that? That is crazy. Like I said, I understand Cease is the better pitcher. Having said that, would you be happy if the Cards had signed him to that deal? In particular if that meant he was the only high priced pitcher the Cards would sign?

Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability.
Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed
and given more direction?

I'm sure they do along with the league copying the 6 SP 4-5 solid RP's
Then rotate with the minors. Will the Cards attempt to control the
innings with the youth even in the event of full health?

Lets say the Cardinals get their payroll back up to $180M. How many $30M pitchers do you think that payroll supports, 1? 2? Do you want Dylan Cease to be the 1? Yes, his stuff has always been good. His results however have been very inconsistent. There were constant complaints on this board that Sonny Gray was not an ace. If you compare Gray to Cease, his results are light years better than Cease and his stuff is at least equivalent. No where did I claim Mikolas was better than Cease, I even stated that he was not. I will state that for 7/$210M I would not sign Cease. Signing mid range guys like him to long expense free agent contracts is how the Cards ended up where they are to begin with. Under the $180M payroll model, he precludes the Cards from getting a true ace.

Copying the Dodgers model of more than 5 ML ready SPs is great. As far as I can tell, that is exactly what the Cards are trying to do by stockpiling young arms. I doubt the Cards ever get in on a Skubal or a Skenes. When you look at the top 20 SPs by ERA in the MLs, almost all of them are on contenders except for Skenes. It is hard to imagine any of these teams will part with one of them. Joe Ryan at #18 is with the Twins and has 2 years control remaining. Probably not in the Cards window. It seems to me the right answer for the Cards is to stock arms this offseason. That gives them a lot of trade capital to try and get the right guy in the 2026 offseason to hopefully give us the young ace we all covet. Just don't sign the Dylan Cease's of the world to long term contracts. That is a recipe for failure.

Unsure where I mentioned that the Cards should be doing anything
like signing a $30M guy. IF that ever happens it will be a while and I can
not answer the question you posed without knowing more about the roster.

Personally, I don't like >5 years. I think they get pitchers in the high rent tier by
rentals, short control, or develop them. So with no other information I will say 1 $30M guy.

Now, so I do not make the same error again where did I suggest a tie of Cease with Miles.
Miles was a overpaid #5. Maybe Pallante role now, maybe.
I thought I asked about Toronto seeing a unfinished product in Cease.

[ICCFIM2]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

You know that is their 2025 pitching line. What is silly about comparing pitching lines and then laughing at someone paying $210M for that? That is crazy. Like I said, I understand Cease is the better pitcher. Having said that, would you be happy if the Cards had signed him to that deal? In particular if that meant he was the only high priced pitcher the Cards would sign?

Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability.
Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed
and given more direction?

I'm sure they do along with the league copying the 6 SP 4-5 solid RP's
Then rotate with the minors. Will the Cards attempt to control the
innings with the youth even in the event of full health?

Lets say the Cardinals get their payroll back up to $180M. How many $30M pitchers do you think that payroll supports, 1? 2? Do you want Dylan Cease to be the 1? Yes, his stuff has always been good. His results however have been very inconsistent. There were constant complaints on this board that Sonny Gray was not an ace. If you compare Gray to Cease, his results are light years better than Cease and his stuff is at least equivalent. No where did I claim Mikolas was better than Cease, I even stated that he was not. I will state that for 7/$210M I would not sign Cease. Signing mid range guys like him to long expense free agent contracts is how the Cards ended up where they are to begin with. Under the $180M payroll model, he precludes the Cards from getting a true ace.

Copying the Dodgers model of more than 5 ML ready SPs is great. As far as I can tell, that is exactly what the Cards are trying to do by stockpiling young arms. I doubt the Cards ever get in on a Skubal or a Skenes. When you look at the top 20 SPs by ERA in the MLs, almost all of them are on contenders except for Skenes. It is hard to imagine any of these teams will part with one of them. Joe Ryan at #18 is with the Twins and has 2 years control remaining. Probably not in the Cards window. It seems to me the right answer for the Cards is to stock arms this offseason. That gives them a lot of trade capital to try and get the right guy in the 2026 offseason to hopefully give us the young ace we all covet. Just don't sign the Dylan Cease's of the world to long term contracts. That is a recipe for failure.

Unsure where I mentioned that the Cards should be doing anything
like signing a $30M guy. IF that ever happens it will be a while and I can
not answer the question you posed without knowing more about the roster.

Personally, I don't like >5 years. I think they get pitchers in the high rent tier by
rentals, short control, or develop them. So with no other information I will say 1 $30M guy.

Now, so I do not make the same error again where did I suggest a tie of Cease with Miles.
Miles was a overpaid #5. Maybe Pallante role now, maybe.
I thought I asked about Toronto seeing a unfinished product in Cease.

The other responder did not like my comparison to Mikolas...I was just surprised the other day when Cease signed how close there statistics were. It is funny to me.

I did take from your answer you felt the contract was justified that Toronto gave him based on, "Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability. Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed and given more direction?" If that was not your intent, apologies for the assumption. I am merely expressing my amazement at the level these contracts have reached for pitchers that have not produced at high levels with any consistency.

To your agreement / comment that the Cards likely sign 1 $30M guy, at some point, that is also my guess, the Cards will sign 1 and only 1. Which means it needs to be the right 1...The initial point of this thread contenders targeting high end starting depth is showing just how obscene these salaries have become...It means teams like the Cardinals who do not have the resources that the top 5 or 6 teams have, must be right with their choices almost every time or they put themselves in a huge hole. It also means the Cards will never achieve this type of depth without developing it internally or at least most of it.

[renostl]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

You know that is their 2025 pitching line. What is silly about comparing pitching lines and then laughing at someone paying $210M for that? That is crazy. Like I said, I understand Cease is the better pitcher. Having said that, would you be happy if the Cards had signed him to that deal? In particular if that meant he was the only high priced pitcher the Cards would sign?

Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability.
Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed
and given more direction?

I'm sure they do along with the league copying the 6 SP 4-5 solid RP's
Then rotate with the minors. Will the Cards attempt to control the
innings with the youth even in the event of full health?

Lets say the Cardinals get their payroll back up to $180M. How many $30M pitchers do you think that payroll supports, 1? 2? Do you want Dylan Cease to be the 1? Yes, his stuff has always been good. His results however have been very inconsistent. There were constant complaints on this board that Sonny Gray was not an ace. If you compare Gray to Cease, his results are light years better than Cease and his stuff is at least equivalent. No where did I claim Mikolas was better than Cease, I even stated that he was not. I will state that for 7/$210M I would not sign Cease. Signing mid range guys like him to long expense free agent contracts is how the Cards ended up where they are to begin with. Under the $180M payroll model, he precludes the Cards from getting a true ace.

Copying the Dodgers model of more than 5 ML ready SPs is great. As far as I can tell, that is exactly what the Cards are trying to do by stockpiling young arms. I doubt the Cards ever get in on a Skubal or a Skenes. When you look at the top 20 SPs by ERA in the MLs, almost all of them are on contenders except for Skenes. It is hard to imagine any of these teams will part with one of them. Joe Ryan at #18 is with the Twins and has 2 years control remaining. Probably not in the Cards window. It seems to me the right answer for the Cards is to stock arms this offseason. That gives them a lot of trade capital to try and get the right guy in the 2026 offseason to hopefully give us the young ace we all covet. Just don't sign the Dylan Cease's of the world to long term contracts. That is a recipe for failure.

Unsure where I mentioned that the Cards should be doing anything
like signing a $30M guy. IF that ever happens it will be a while and I can
not answer the question you posed without knowing more about the roster.

Personally, I don't like >5 years. I think they get pitchers in the high rent tier by
rentals, short control, or develop them. So with no other information I will say 1 $30M guy.

Now, so I do not make the same error again where did I suggest a tie of Cease with Miles.
Miles was a overpaid #5. Maybe Pallante role now, maybe.
I thought I asked about Toronto seeing a unfinished product in Cease.

The other responder did not like my comparison to Mikolas...I was just surprised the other day when Cease signed how close there statistics were. It is funny to me.

I did take from your answer you felt the contract was justified that Toronto gave him based on, "Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability. Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed and given more direction?" If that was not your intent, apologies for the assumption. I am merely expressing my amazement at the level these contracts have reached for pitchers that have not produced at high levels with any consistency.

To your agreement / comment that the Cards likely sign 1 $30M guy, at some point, that is also my guess, the Cards will sign 1 and only 1. Which means it needs to be the right 1...The initial point of this thread contenders targeting high end starting depth is showing just how obscene these salaries have become...It means teams like the Cardinals who do not have the resources that the top 5 or 6 teams have, must be right with their choices almost every time or they put themselves in a huge hole. It also means the Cards will never achieve this type of depth without developing it internally or at least most of it.

All good, it was an honest question on my part about Cease.
I come here for other opinions and insights.

IMO, the Cards showed us a receipt in 2024. Hire 1-2 horses to help carry the load of
the 162. Unless we think that they will develop 5 SP's at the same time.
Develop, rent, trade for a top 3. That's needed come playoffs and is enough
to win playoffs. 2 are really along with a BP. Protect them as able through the 162.
Those spending teams buy depth and care a little less about the sideways contract.
There is also less need of 5-6 SP come playoffs. In the end didn't the season
rest on only 1, Yamamoto?
Snell and Glasnow were matched by guys named Bieber, Yesavage, Scherzer.

[C-Unit]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

You know that is their 2025 pitching line. What is silly about comparing pitching lines and then laughing at someone paying $210M for that? That is crazy. Like I said, I understand Cease is the better pitcher. Having said that, would you be happy if the Cards had signed him to that deal? In particular if that meant he was the only high priced pitcher the Cards would sign?

Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability.
Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed
and given more direction?

I'm sure they do along with the league copying the 6 SP 4-5 solid RP's
Then rotate with the minors. Will the Cards attempt to control the
innings with the youth even in the event of full health?

Lets say the Cardinals get their payroll back up to $180M. How many $30M pitchers do you think that payroll supports, 1? 2? Do you want Dylan Cease to be the 1? Yes, his stuff has always been good. His results however have been very inconsistent. There were constant complaints on this board that Sonny Gray was not an ace. If you compare Gray to Cease, his results are light years better than Cease and his stuff is at least equivalent. No where did I claim Mikolas was better than Cease, I even stated that he was not. I will state that for 7/$210M I would not sign Cease. Signing mid range guys like him to long expense free agent contracts is how the Cards ended up where they are to begin with. Under the $180M payroll model, he precludes the Cards from getting a true ace.

Copying the Dodgers model of more than 5 ML ready SPs is great. As far as I can tell, that is exactly what the Cards are trying to do by stockpiling young arms. I doubt the Cards ever get in on a Skubal or a Skenes. When you look at the top 20 SPs by ERA in the MLs, almost all of them are on contenders except for Skenes. It is hard to imagine any of these teams will part with one of them. Joe Ryan at #18 is with the Twins and has 2 years control remaining. Probably not in the Cards window. It seems to me the right answer for the Cards is to stock arms this offseason. That gives them a lot of trade capital to try and get the right guy in the 2026 offseason to hopefully give us the young ace we all covet. Just don't sign the Dylan Cease's of the world to long term contracts. That is a recipe for failure.

My interpretation on the Blue Jays part is for them to sign a deal like this they must be far from finished. They must have other plans this off-season that this contract doesn't affect at all. The Cardinals certainly won't be doing that which really does drive home the value of pitching prospects for us.

Kevin Gausman was a terrific signing for the Blue Jays. Zach Wheeler was right in that same price range too, during the same time period. The opportunity to sign a pitcher of that caliber for 5 years at 20-22M a year may be long gone, but both of those deals would have been highly valuable to the Cardinals.

The Blue Jays, to me, have had a model pitching staff for quite some time having several pitchers who are not necessarily ace level, but an abundance of 2's and 3's. It's a good strategy. Seattle has a similarly built staff, but maybe they have some more ace-caliber pitchers in that staff. They’ve both had solid, playoff caliber pitching staffs up and down for about 5 years now. I think anyways, you want to have about 55-60% of your team WAR coming from your position players. So both of those teams look to be getting over that hump on the position player side (with Toronto certainly displaying their deep offense as a testament to their AL Pennant, and Seattle now having several all-star level anchors in their lineup).

If you follow that strategy, you can amass a collection of veteran pitchers (through trade or free agency) who are maybe just a tier below the Cease/Snell etc category, able to stabilize the rotation (but certainly a higher tier than Mikolas etc). And then, hopefully you have a system that can hit on a few high-high upside talents that can go to the rotation or bullpen. That's a method I can see the Cardinals using. In the playoffs, it's just a matter of having a Yesavage on hand who can catch lightning in a bottle. I think having a system stocked with power arms is a good bet towards having that happen.

The Cardinals can't do what the Dodgers did but just for amusement sake, consider the lasciviousness of them being able to bring out Ohtani-Glasnow-Snell-Yamamoto in a Game 7. It's 1.2B worth of seasoned veteran starting pitching, and the luxury to have it all ready for specialized use in a World Series Game 7.

[ICCFIM2]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

You know that is their 2025 pitching line. What is silly about comparing pitching lines and then laughing at someone paying $210M for that? That is crazy. Like I said, I understand Cease is the better pitcher. Having said that, would you be happy if the Cards had signed him to that deal? In particular if that meant he was the only high priced pitcher the Cards would sign?

Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability.
Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed
and given more direction?

I'm sure they do along with the league copying the 6 SP 4-5 solid RP's
Then rotate with the minors. Will the Cards attempt to control the
innings with the youth even in the event of full health?

Lets say the Cardinals get their payroll back up to $180M. How many $30M pitchers do you think that payroll supports, 1? 2? Do you want Dylan Cease to be the 1? Yes, his stuff has always been good. His results however have been very inconsistent. There were constant complaints on this board that Sonny Gray was not an ace. If you compare Gray to Cease, his results are light years better than Cease and his stuff is at least equivalent. No where did I claim Mikolas was better than Cease, I even stated that he was not. I will state that for 7/$210M I would not sign Cease. Signing mid range guys like him to long expense free agent contracts is how the Cards ended up where they are to begin with. Under the $180M payroll model, he precludes the Cards from getting a true ace.

Copying the Dodgers model of more than 5 ML ready SPs is great. As far as I can tell, that is exactly what the Cards are trying to do by stockpiling young arms. I doubt the Cards ever get in on a Skubal or a Skenes. When you look at the top 20 SPs by ERA in the MLs, almost all of them are on contenders except for Skenes. It is hard to imagine any of these teams will part with one of them. Joe Ryan at #18 is with the Twins and has 2 years control remaining. Probably not in the Cards window. It seems to me the right answer for the Cards is to stock arms this offseason. That gives them a lot of trade capital to try and get the right guy in the 2026 offseason to hopefully give us the young ace we all covet. Just don't sign the Dylan Cease's of the world to long term contracts. That is a recipe for failure.

Unsure where I mentioned that the Cards should be doing anything
like signing a $30M guy. IF that ever happens it will be a while and I can
not answer the question you posed without knowing more about the roster.

Personally, I don't like >5 years. I think they get pitchers in the high rent tier by
rentals, short control, or develop them. So with no other information I will say 1 $30M guy.

Now, so I do not make the same error again where did I suggest a tie of Cease with Miles.
Miles was a overpaid #5. Maybe Pallante role now, maybe.
I thought I asked about Toronto seeing a unfinished product in Cease.

The other responder did not like my comparison to Mikolas...I was just surprised the other day when Cease signed how close there statistics were. It is funny to me.

I did take from your answer you felt the contract was justified that Toronto gave him based on, "Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability. Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed and given more direction?" If that was not your intent, apologies for the assumption. I am merely expressing my amazement at the level these contracts have reached for pitchers that have not produced at high levels with any consistency.

To your agreement / comment that the Cards likely sign 1 $30M guy, at some point, that is also my guess, the Cards will sign 1 and only 1. Which means it needs to be the right 1...The initial point of this thread contenders targeting high end starting depth is showing just how obscene these salaries have become...It means teams like the Cardinals who do not have the resources that the top 5 or 6 teams have, must be right with their choices almost every time or they put themselves in a huge hole. It also means the Cards will never achieve this type of depth without developing it internally or at least most of it.

All good, it was an honest question on my part about Cease.
I come here for other opinions and insights.

IMO, the Cards showed us a receipt in 2024. Hire 1-2 horses to help carry the load of
the 162. Unless we think that they will develop 5 SP's at the same time.
Develop, rent, trade for a top 3. That's needed come playoffs and is enough
to win playoffs. 2 are really along with a BP. Protect them as able through the 162.
Those spending teams buy depth and care a little less about the sideways contract.
There is also less need of 5-6 SP come playoffs. In the end didn't the season
rest on only 1, Yamamoto?
Snell and Glasnow were matched by guys named Bieber, Yesavage, Scherzer.

Yes, we have seen over the years having one dominant starter, Bob Gibson, Chris Carpenter, Madison Bumgartner, Yamamoto, etc. can win a World Series if you get to the World Series. I agree with your comment, sign 1-2 veterans on 1 year deals that can pitch innings to fill in for young guys. But, you need at least 1 dominant guy and probably a second one that is also really good to get there. When the Cardinals won in 2006, Jeff Suppan pitched beyond his pedigree and Chris Carpenter carried a huge load. In 2011, Chris Carpenter traded his remaining longevity for a title. I think the Cardinals are on the right path developing a bunch of guys. Inevitably that will probably need to go outside to get another top guy. Given the prices, it is probably going to occur by trading away a bunch of the prospects they are accumulating.

[ICCFIM2]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

You know that is their 2025 pitching line. What is silly about comparing pitching lines and then laughing at someone paying $210M for that? That is crazy. Like I said, I understand Cease is the better pitcher. Having said that, would you be happy if the Cards had signed him to that deal? In particular if that meant he was the only high priced pitcher the Cards would sign?

Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability.
Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed
and given more direction?

I'm sure they do along with the league copying the 6 SP 4-5 solid RP's
Then rotate with the minors. Will the Cards attempt to control the
innings with the youth even in the event of full health?

Lets say the Cardinals get their payroll back up to $180M. How many $30M pitchers do you think that payroll supports, 1? 2? Do you want Dylan Cease to be the 1? Yes, his stuff has always been good. His results however have been very inconsistent. There were constant complaints on this board that Sonny Gray was not an ace. If you compare Gray to Cease, his results are light years better than Cease and his stuff is at least equivalent. No where did I claim Mikolas was better than Cease, I even stated that he was not. I will state that for 7/$210M I would not sign Cease. Signing mid range guys like him to long expense free agent contracts is how the Cards ended up where they are to begin with. Under the $180M payroll model, he precludes the Cards from getting a true ace.

Copying the Dodgers model of more than 5 ML ready SPs is great. As far as I can tell, that is exactly what the Cards are trying to do by stockpiling young arms. I doubt the Cards ever get in on a Skubal or a Skenes. When you look at the top 20 SPs by ERA in the MLs, almost all of them are on contenders except for Skenes. It is hard to imagine any of these teams will part with one of them. Joe Ryan at #18 is with the Twins and has 2 years control remaining. Probably not in the Cards window. It seems to me the right answer for the Cards is to stock arms this offseason. That gives them a lot of trade capital to try and get the right guy in the 2026 offseason to hopefully give us the young ace we all covet. Just don't sign the Dylan Cease's of the world to long term contracts. That is a recipe for failure.

My interpretation on the Blue Jays part is for them to sign a deal like this they must be far from finished. They must have other plans this off-season that this contract doesn't affect at all. The Cardinals certainly won't be doing that which really does drive home the value of pitching prospects for us.

Kevin Gausman was a terrific signing for the Blue Jays. Zach Wheeler was right in that same price range too, during the same time period. The opportunity to sign a pitcher of that caliber for 5 years at 20-22M a year may be long gone, but both of those deals would have been highly valuable to the Cardinals.

The Blue Jays, to me, have had a model pitching staff for quite some time having several pitchers who are not necessarily ace level, but an abundance of 2's and 3's. It's a good strategy. Seattle has a similarly built staff, but maybe they have some more ace-caliber pitchers in that staff. They’ve both had solid, playoff caliber pitching staffs up and down for about 5 years now. I think anyways, you want to have about 55-60% of your team WAR coming from your position players. So both of those teams look to be getting over that hump on the position player side (with Toronto certainly displaying their deep offense as a testament to their AL Pennant, and Seattle now having several all-star level anchors in their lineup).

If you follow that strategy, you can amass a collection of veteran pitchers (through trade or free agency) who are maybe just a tier below the Cease/Snell etc category, able to stabilize the rotation (but certainly a higher tier than Mikolas etc). And then, hopefully you have a system that can hit on a few high-high upside talents that can go to the rotation or bullpen. That's a method I can see the Cardinals using. In the playoffs, it's just a matter of having a Yesavage on hand who can catch lightning in a bottle. I think having a system stocked with power arms is a good bet towards having that happen.

The Cardinals can't do what the Dodgers did but just for amusement sake, consider the lasciviousness of them being able to bring out Ohtani-Glasnow-Snell-Yamamoto in a Game 7. It's 1.2B worth of seasoned veteran starting pitching, and the luxury to have it all ready for specialized use in a World Series Game 7.

The Dodgers have an abundance of riches. You bring up a good point about the Zach Wheelers and Kevin Gausman's. I always thought the Cardinals should have been in on those deals. If they were willing to give Mike Leake 5/$80M in 2017, they should have been willing to do 5/$110-120M for either of those two a couple of years later. They might very well have won a World Series in the 2020-2022 time frame had they done so.

I think you are 100% correct about Toronto's strategy. I am just amazed that the cost has went from AAV of $20-22M to $30M in 3-4 short years. I also don't think Cease is as good as either Wheeler or Gausman, albeit, if I am wrong, we will see. But to then give him 7 years instead of 5 on top of the AAV is just stunning. It indicates at 5 years the AAV is even higher.

To your point, if we listen to Bloom and look at the initial trade of Gray, I think they are trying to do exactly as you suggest, accumulate a bunch of guys that could be 2s or 3s; Doyle, Mathews, Clarke, Roby, Franklin etc. They need at least 2 of those guys and or Liberatore to become 2s or 3s. They seem to have enough guys, McGreevy, Liberatore and Fitts along with some of the other names above to fill out a rotation of 4s and 5s. If they can do that, then they will only need to add 1 guy by say 2028 and they will have a chance. I am guessing that a Donovan trade will add another high end starter unless Bloom can pry a Colt Emerson away from the Mariners in a trade...Probably not, but I can dream...

[renostl]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

You know that is their 2025 pitching line. What is silly about comparing pitching lines and then laughing at someone paying $210M for that? That is crazy. Like I said, I understand Cease is the better pitcher. Having said that, would you be happy if the Cards had signed him to that deal? In particular if that meant he was the only high priced pitcher the Cards would sign?

Do you think Toronto sees a guy with stuff and durability.
Enough stuff that his results really should be better if harnessed
and given more direction?

I'm sure they do along with the league copying the 6 SP 4-5 solid RP's
Then rotate with the minors. Will the Cards attempt to control the
innings with the youth even in the event of full health?

Lets say the Cardinals get their payroll back up to $180M. How many $30M pitchers do you think that payroll supports, 1? 2? Do you want Dylan Cease to be the 1? Yes, his stuff has always been good. His results however have been very inconsistent. There were constant complaints on this board that Sonny Gray was not an ace. If you compare Gray to Cease, his results are light years better than Cease and his stuff is at least equivalent. No where did I claim Mikolas was better than Cease, I even stated that he was not. I will state that for 7/$210M I would not sign Cease. Signing mid range guys like him to long expense free agent contracts is how the Cards ended up where they are to begin with. Under the $180M payroll model, he precludes the Cards from getting a true ace.

Copying the Dodgers model of more than 5 ML ready SPs is great. As far as I can tell, that is exactly what the Cards are trying to do by stockpiling young arms. I doubt the Cards ever get in on a Skubal or a Skenes. When you look at the top 20 SPs by ERA in the MLs, almost all of them are on contenders except for Skenes. It is hard to imagine any of these teams will part with one of them. Joe Ryan at #18 is with the Twins and has 2 years control remaining. Probably not in the Cards window. It seems to me the right answer for the Cards is to stock arms this offseason. That gives them a lot of trade capital to try and get the right guy in the 2026 offseason to hopefully give us the young ace we all covet. Just don't sign the Dylan Cease's of the world to long term contracts. That is a recipe for failure.

My interpretation on the Blue Jays part is for them to sign a deal like this they must be far from finished. They must have other plans this off-season that this contract doesn't affect at all. The Cardinals certainly won't be doing that which really does drive home the value of pitching prospects for us.

Kevin Gausman was a terrific signing for the Blue Jays. Zach Wheeler was right in that same price range too, during the same time period. The opportunity to sign a pitcher of that caliber for 5 years at 20-22M a year may be long gone, but both of those deals would have been highly valuable to the Cardinals.

The Blue Jays, to me, have had a model pitching staff for quite some time having several pitchers who are not necessarily ace level, but an abundance of 2's and 3's. It's a good strategy. Seattle has a similarly built staff, but maybe they have some more ace-caliber pitchers in that staff. They’ve both had solid, playoff caliber pitching staffs up and down for about 5 years now. I think anyways, you want to have about 55-60% of your team WAR coming from your position players. So both of those teams look to be getting over that hump on the position player side (with Toronto certainly displaying their deep offense as a testament to their AL Pennant, and Seattle now having several all-star level anchors in their lineup).

If you follow that strategy, you can amass a collection of veteran pitchers (through trade or free agency) who are maybe just a tier below the Cease/Snell etc category, able to stabilize the rotation (but certainly a higher tier than Mikolas etc). And then, hopefully you have a system that can hit on a few high-high upside talents that can go to the rotation or bullpen. That's a method I can see the Cardinals using. In the playoffs, it's just a matter of having a Yesavage on hand who can catch lightning in a bottle. I think having a system stocked with power arms is a good bet towards having that happen.

The Cardinals can't do what the Dodgers did but just for amusement sake, consider the lasciviousness of them being able to bring out Ohtani-Glasnow-Snell-Yamamoto in a Game 7. It's 1.2B worth of seasoned veteran starting pitching, and the luxury to have it all ready for specialized use in a World Series Game 7.

The Dodgers have an abundance of riches. You bring up a good point about the Zach Wheelers and Kevin Gausman's. I always thought the Cardinals should have been in on those deals. If they were willing to give Mike Leake 5/$80M in 2017, they should have been willing to do 5/$110-120M for either of those two a couple of years later. They might very well have won a World Series in the 2020-2022 time frame had they done so.

I think you are 100% correct about Toronto's strategy. I am just amazed that the cost has went from AAV of $20-22M to $30M in 3-4 short years. I also don't think Cease is as good as either Wheeler or Gausman, albeit, if I am wrong, we will see. But to then give him 7 years instead of 5 on top of the AAV is just stunning. It indicates at 5 years the AAV is even higher.

To your point, if we listen to Bloom and look at the initial trade of Gray, I think they are trying to do exactly as you suggest, accumulate a bunch of guys that could be 2s or 3s; Doyle, Mathews, Clarke, Roby, Franklin etc. They need at least 2 of those guys and or Liberatore to become 2s or 3s. They seem to have enough guys, McGreevy, Liberatore and Fitts along with some of the other names above to fill out a rotation of 4s and 5s. If they can do that, then they will only need to add 1 guy by say 2028 and they will have a chance. I am guessing that a Donovan trade will add another high end starter unless Bloom can pry a Colt Emerson away from the Mariners in a trade...Probably not, but I can dream...

We share a dream.
I'd add to BD, I'm often not smart.

[rockondlouie]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

Cease 2025
3.56 FiP

Mikolas 2025
5.03 Fip

[ICCFIM2]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

Cease 2025
3.56 FiP

Mikolas 2025
5.03 Fip

I knew that and purposefully ignored it. FIP loves strike outs and Mikolas strikes out no one. Isn't it interesting that the overall ERA and WHIP are almost identical? I already admitted I fully understand Cease is the better pitcher. But, I do not understand how he can be worth 7/$210M.

I am a results orientated kind of guy. If you have a beautiful golf swing, drive it 320 yeards and shoot an 80 are you a better golfer than me if I hit it 210 straight down the middle every time and shoot an 80.

In any case, if we want to put up career numbers, and remember these are career numbers after Mikolas has just been awful the last 3 years,

Cease 65-58 W-L, 3.88 ERA 3.67 FIP 1.265 WHIP
Mikolas 72-75 W-L 4.24 ERA 4.18 FIP 1.216 WHIP

At the end of his 7 year contract, Dylan Cease will be the exact same age as Mikolas was at the end of this season. Do you think Cease will finish with a FIP under 4.18 at the end of that contract? Do you think he will improve his WHIP so it is better than 1.216? Cease strikes out a ton more people, FIP loves it. He walks a ton of people and it drags his results back down to mediocrity.

[rockondlouie]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

Cease 2025
3.56 FiP

Mikolas 2025
5.03 Fip

I knew that and purposefully ignored it. FIP loves strike outs and Mikolas strikes out no one. Isn't it interesting that the overall ERA and WHIP are almost identical? I already admitted I fully understand Cease is the better pitcher. But, I do not understand how he can be worth 7/$210M.

I am a results orientated kind of guy. If you have a beautiful golf swing, drive it 320 yeards and shoot an 80 are you a better golfer than me if I hit it 210 straight down the middle every time and shoot an 80.

In any case, if we want to put up career numbers, and remember these are career numbers after Mikolas has just been awful the last 3 years,

Cease 65-58 W-L, 3.88 ERA 3.67 FIP 1.265 WHIP
Mikolas 72-75 W-L 4.24 ERA 4.18 FIP 1.216 WHIP

At the end of his 7 year contract, Dylan Cease will be the exact same age as Mikolas was at the end of this season. Do you think Cease will finish with a FIP under 4.18 at the end of that contract? Do you think he will improve his WHIP so it is better than 1.216? Cease strikes out a ton more people, FIP loves it. He walks a ton of people and it drags his results back down to mediocrity.

1)
We're in agreement that $210M is an overpay

2)
30 yrs old in a few weeks

3)
2021 -2024
3.52 ERA
3.32 FiP
1.21 WHiP
11.2 SO9 (This has to be why he's getting paid)
15.8 bWAR

Not a $30M "ACE" but a really solid $23-25M AAV #2

(Sadly that true "ACE" #1 is probably in the $40+M range now)

[mattmitchl44]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

Cease 2025
3.56 FiP

Mikolas 2025
5.03 Fip

I knew that and purposefully ignored it. FIP loves strike outs and Mikolas strikes out no one. Isn't it interesting that the overall ERA and WHIP are almost identical? I already admitted I fully understand Cease is the better pitcher. But, I do not understand how he can be worth 7/$210M.

I am a results orientated kind of guy. If you have a beautiful golf swing, drive it 320 yeards and shoot an 80 are you a better golfer than me if I hit it 210 straight down the middle every time and shoot an 80.

In any case, if we want to put up career numbers, and remember these are career numbers after Mikolas has just been awful the last 3 years,

Cease 65-58 W-L, 3.88 ERA 3.67 FIP 1.265 WHIP
Mikolas 72-75 W-L 4.24 ERA 4.18 FIP 1.216 WHIP

At the end of his 7 year contract, Dylan Cease will be the exact same age as Mikolas was at the end of this season. Do you think Cease will finish with a FIP under 4.18 at the end of that contract? Do you think he will improve his WHIP so it is better than 1.216? Cease strikes out a ton more people, FIP loves it. He walks a ton of people and it drags his results back down to mediocrity.

1)
We're in agreement that $210M is an overpay

2)
30 yrs old in a few weeks

3)
2021 -2024
3.52 ERA
3.32 FiP
1.21 WHiP
11.2 SO9 (This has to be why he's getting paid)
15.8 bWAR

Not a $30M "ACE" but a really solid $23-25M AAV #2

(Sadly that true "ACE" #1 is probably in the $40+M range now)

I think Cease if definitely an overpay by the Blue Jays. He has the "stuff" to maybe be a #1 SP (like his 2024 season) for a couple of years, in which Toronto could hope for him to get them to a WS title.

But for the middle to back end of that contract, he's likely going to be a #2, or worse, SP. The only question is when will that contract go "underwater" based on his performance level.

[rockondlouie]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

Cease 2025
3.56 FiP

Mikolas 2025
5.03 Fip

I knew that and purposefully ignored it. FIP loves strike outs and Mikolas strikes out no one. Isn't it interesting that the overall ERA and WHIP are almost identical? I already admitted I fully understand Cease is the better pitcher. But, I do not understand how he can be worth 7/$210M.

I am a results orientated kind of guy. If you have a beautiful golf swing, drive it 320 yeards and shoot an 80 are you a better golfer than me if I hit it 210 straight down the middle every time and shoot an 80.

In any case, if we want to put up career numbers, and remember these are career numbers after Mikolas has just been awful the last 3 years,

Cease 65-58 W-L, 3.88 ERA 3.67 FIP 1.265 WHIP
Mikolas 72-75 W-L 4.24 ERA 4.18 FIP 1.216 WHIP

At the end of his 7 year contract, Dylan Cease will be the exact same age as Mikolas was at the end of this season. Do you think Cease will finish with a FIP under 4.18 at the end of that contract? Do you think he will improve his WHIP so it is better than 1.216? Cease strikes out a ton more people, FIP loves it. He walks a ton of people and it drags his results back down to mediocrity.

1)
We're in agreement that $210M is an overpay

2)
30 yrs old in a few weeks

3)
2021 -2024
3.52 ERA
3.32 FiP
1.21 WHiP
11.2 SO9 (This has to be why he's getting paid)
15.8 bWAR

Not a $30M "ACE" but a really solid $23-25M AAV #2

(Sadly that true "ACE" #1 is probably in the $40+M range now)

I think Cease if definitely an overpay by the Blue Jays. He has the "stuff" to maybe be a #1 SP (like his 2024 season) for a couple of years, in which Toronto could hope for him to get them to a WS title.

But for the middle to back end of that contract, he's likely going to be a #2, or worse, SP. The only question is when will that contract go "underwater" based on his performance level.

Rogers Communications probably second only to the Guggenheim Gang/Dodgers in the size of their War Chest, coming as close as they'd did this season they seem to be willing to overpay in hopes of getting voer the hump.

And Cease certainly has the stuff (11+ SO9) but hasn't really taken that next step to being a true #1 ACE.

I don't consider him a #1 ACE, rather a top end #2 who by the end of that deal will be a low level #3 at best.

[ICCFIM2]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

Cease 2025
3.56 FiP

Mikolas 2025
5.03 Fip

I knew that and purposefully ignored it. FIP loves strike outs and Mikolas strikes out no one. Isn't it interesting that the overall ERA and WHIP are almost identical? I already admitted I fully understand Cease is the better pitcher. But, I do not understand how he can be worth 7/$210M.

I am a results orientated kind of guy. If you have a beautiful golf swing, drive it 320 yeards and shoot an 80 are you a better golfer than me if I hit it 210 straight down the middle every time and shoot an 80.

In any case, if we want to put up career numbers, and remember these are career numbers after Mikolas has just been awful the last 3 years,

Cease 65-58 W-L, 3.88 ERA 3.67 FIP 1.265 WHIP
Mikolas 72-75 W-L 4.24 ERA 4.18 FIP 1.216 WHIP

At the end of his 7 year contract, Dylan Cease will be the exact same age as Mikolas was at the end of this season. Do you think Cease will finish with a FIP under 4.18 at the end of that contract? Do you think he will improve his WHIP so it is better than 1.216? Cease strikes out a ton more people, FIP loves it. He walks a ton of people and it drags his results back down to mediocrity.

1)
We're in agreement that $210M is an overpay

2)
30 yrs old in a few weeks

3)
2021 -2024
3.52 ERA
3.32 FiP
1.21 WHiP
11.2 SO9 (This has to be why he's getting paid)
15.8 bWAR

Not a $30M "ACE" but a really solid $23-25M AAV #2

(Sadly that true "ACE" #1 is probably in the $40+M range now)

All fair points. I know I probably beat this dead horse too much. I am certain that 11.2 SO9 is getting him paid. That 3.8 BB9 is why this is an overpay and why his overall results dipped so close to Mikolas who has a lifetime 1.8 BB9. To Mattmitch's comment, if this signing helps the Jays win a WS, they won't care if it is an overpay. I am guessing most of us on this board won't care how much the Cards overpay a couple of players if it nets us a WS before we are all gone...

[mattmitchl44]

All fair points. I know I probably beat this dead horse too much. I am certain that 11.2 SO9 is getting him paid. That 3.8 BB9 is why this is an overpay and why his overall results dipped so close to Mikolas who has a lifetime 1.8 BB9. To Mattmitch's comment, if this signing helps the Jays win a WS, they won't care if it is an overpay. I am guessing most of us on this board won't care how much the Cards overpay a couple of players if it nets us a WS before we are all gone...

And, having reached the WS last year, as long as they can manage their losses (Bichette?) from last year's team, Toronto is definitely in "win now" mode.

So - as has been said before - this is the time when a "win now" team wants to have the payroll flexibility to go out and maybe "overpay" for a guy they need to get them over the top, while he's still close to his prime, in the next 1, 2, 3 years.

Chris Bassitt was a fine pitcher for them for years, but no doubt they are happy to be moving on from his $22 million contract at age 37 so they can use that money on Cease right now.

[rockondlouie]

I have seen many reports that the Yankees Atlanta Giants Padres Toronto Philly and all the contenders will try to go with 7 or more SP following the Dodgers program last year of having 10 and limiting all their IP. Any discomfort and a brief IL stint. That is going to make the mid tier SP market thin fast and go above market. Hope Dewitt realizes this and attacks early. I fear a Mikolas type is best they will add when they really need to add to top of rotation. Libertore the #1 is really a #3-4

The Cardinals were never going to add more than a Mikolas type this year or someone on a pillow deal. They have made that pretty clear with Bloom's comments. The SP prices are just sky high. If you look at Dylan Cease's statistics, he is Mikolas with a higher strike out rate. The sabre stats love him. The results sure are not different though. That guy got 7/$210M for very mediocre results...

Wow, c'mon. Lol

Pitcher A 31 Starts 8-11 W-L 4.84 ERA 156.1 innings 1.318 WHIP
Pitcher B 32 Starts 8-12 W-L 4.55 ERA 168 Innings 1.327 WHIP

Which one is which? One of those pitchers is getting 7/$210M, the other might be on the way out of baseball...I understand one of them is the better pitcher. But $210M worth of a better pitcher is my point. I don't think so.

Are those career numbers???
Comparing Mikolas to Cease is silly.
Its like comparing Gorman to Schwarber.

Cease 2025
3.56 FiP

Mikolas 2025
5.03 Fip

I knew that and purposefully ignored it. FIP loves strike outs and Mikolas strikes out no one. Isn't it interesting that the overall ERA and WHIP are almost identical? I already admitted I fully understand Cease is the better pitcher. But, I do not understand how he can be worth 7/$210M.

I am a results orientated kind of guy. If you have a beautiful golf swing, drive it 320 yeards and shoot an 80 are you a better golfer than me if I hit it 210 straight down the middle every time and shoot an 80.

In any case, if we want to put up career numbers, and remember these are career numbers after Mikolas has just been awful the last 3 years,

Cease 65-58 W-L, 3.88 ERA 3.67 FIP 1.265 WHIP
Mikolas 72-75 W-L 4.24 ERA 4.18 FIP 1.216 WHIP

At the end of his 7 year contract, Dylan Cease will be the exact same age as Mikolas was at the end of this season. Do you think Cease will finish with a FIP under 4.18 at the end of that contract? Do you think he will improve his WHIP so it is better than 1.216? Cease strikes out a ton more people, FIP loves it. He walks a ton of people and it drags his results back down to mediocrity.

1)
We're in agreement that $210M is an overpay

2)
30 yrs old in a few weeks

3)
2021 -2024
3.52 ERA
3.32 FiP
1.21 WHiP
11.2 SO9 (This has to be why he's getting paid)
15.8 bWAR

Not a $30M "ACE" but a really solid $23-25M AAV #2

(Sadly that true "ACE" #1 is probably in the $40+M range now)

All fair points. I know I probably beat this dead horse too much. I am certain that 11.2 SO9 is getting him paid. That 3.8 BB9 is why this is an overpay and why his overall results dipped so close to Mikolas who has a lifetime 1.8 BB9. To Mattmitch's comment, if this signing helps the Jays win a WS, they won't care if it is an overpay. I am guessing most of us on this board won't care how much the Cards overpay a couple of players if it nets us a WS before we are all gone...

Agree

I have no issue w/the Jays "overpaying" if they think it helps them get over the hump.

And I could care less if BDWJr overpays for a star player or two in 2027/2028, he owes the fan base after this 2024-2026 debacle.