Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.
Posted: 30 Sep 2025 14:45 pm
A nice read! The only place I differ is keep Saggese and trade Gorman while still looking for a big bat!Melville wrote: ↑30 Sep 2025 09:49 am It is too soon to determine the Bloom/DeWitt objective for 2026 and beyond.
Perhaps they drag payroll even lower, perhaps they want to scrape to the bare earth and start over.
But that isn't necessary.
If they desire for the team to win at least 85/86 games next year, and 90+ in years following, it can be accomplished quite easily.
The organization can be fixed in 30 days or less - and I am happy to provide the correct roadmap.
But strategic decision making can only be effective if based on current data.
So, let’s start there.
First, the adequate and the good.
The 2025 STL offense was almost exactly middle of the pack in both BA (.245 with .247 being the MLB midpoint) and OBP (.314 vs. .315 midpoint.)
Note concerning OBP – only Nootbaar (11%) and Gorman (12%) drew walks at an above average rate.
Strikeouts were not really an issue since the team was just 40 above the MLB midpoint for the entire season.
STL excelled at hitting doubles, ranking 10 best and a reason for optimism.
No significant issues in those metrics.
Now the bad.
29th in HR (only 4 players were on pace for 20+ HR per 600 PA’s (Contreras, Herrera, Gorman, Burleson).
30th in triples.
20th in SB, with only Scott surpassing 10 for the year.
Team was 7th worst at GIDP with 115 (Herrera worst by a wide margin with 20; Gorman best with just 1).
These facts dictate why the team was 19th in MLB in runs scored, and 12th out of 16 NL team.
The outfield was easily the primary issue for the offense: the 3 starters (Nootbaar/Scott/Walker) scored a pathetic 68, 54, and 40 runs, while “driving in” an even worse 48, 41, and 37.
As I alone was first and best to analyze and explain many years ago, the outfield is the area of horrific weakness and currently has zero adequate starters.
Next, let’s look at roster construction going into 2026, examining the 15 position players most likely under consideration for a roster spot.
LH – BURLESON, DONOVAN, WETHERHOLT, CROOKS, GORMAN, NOOTBAAR, SCOTT, CHURCH
RH – WALKER, PAGES, CONTRERAS, HERRERA, WINN, SAGGESE, FERMIN
4 outfielders, 8 infielders, 2 catchers, 1 with no real position.
What does the data establish?
The outfield is a disaster.
Overall, the lineup has not enough power, is too slow, has too many LH bats.
Here is the roster solution for 2026 and the correct off-season plan to achieve it:
The team simply cannot trade what little power it has, meaning Contreras (1B/DH), Burleson (1B, DH, RF), Gorman (3B/2B,1B), and Herrera (TBD) must be retained for 2026.
The team can ill afford to get even slower, so Scott must be retained in CF and be given another opportunity.
No discussion needed that Winn must return at SS - primarily for the glove but the bat is certainly more than adequate on a properly constructed roster.
A RH/LH tandem of Pages/Crooks at catcher is the most probable at that spot.
Herrera's power may or may not be real (he hit nearly 2/3 of his HR in just 4 weeks), but he needs to find a position, with outfield being the best option while rotating through DH appearances.
Wetherholt is going to play (2B is best option) and if he hits, he should belong at leadoff - but it will be wise to have insurance.
That leaves Nootbaar, Donovan, Church, Walker, Saggese, and Fermin as the question marks.
Here is the correct answer to each.
Trade Nootbaar.
Trade Walker.
Trade Saggese or Fermin, whichever is preferred by an acquiring team as part of a larger package.
Move Donovan to LF - and he doubles as infield insurance in the event of underperformance.
Church is a passable 5th outfielder - but a RH hitting bench CF option might be an upgrade (worth noting that Joshua Baez should get long looks in CF in Memphis to begin 2026).
This is the 100% correct answer with each of the current roster options.
But it leaves one critical need unmet.
The team simply must add a RH hitting, ASG quality, productive, middle order bat (3rd or 4th) outfield bat - as I alone have unerringly and consistently stated for 5+ years.
By shopping/packaging Nootbaar, Walker, Saggese or Fermin, as well as 40-man roster fillers Pozo, Prieto, Koperniak, & Siani, along with prospects such as Bernal and C. Davis, there are plenty of trade pieces available (pitchers will be discussed later) to make that acquisition.
Finally, depending on a number of factors, this would potentially leave the team with one extra LH bat (Burleson, Donovan, Gorman, Scott) to use as a trade piece in July to address needs which emerge before the trade deadline - but these 4 should be retained until then.
There you have it.
The 100% fully accurate plan (completely unbiased, of course), to address position player roster decisions for 2026 and beyond.
My 100% fully accurate plan for the pitching staff will likely be provided this evening.
If STL does precisely as I advise, the team will win 85+games next season.
I give my personal guarantee.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
