Would you make this blockbuster trade?

[russellhammond]

Serious question.....why trade Winn? I know you have to give to get, but Winn should be a centerpiece in the Cardinals rebuild.

You answered it russell (and the centerpiece of the rebuild is going to be JJW, not Winn)

To get a young, cost controlled for years stud RHHing OFer like Pages it has to hurt.

While JJW may not be Winn w/the glove he's going to more than make up for it by being a vastly superior offensive threat.

And accord to fangraphs he's no worse than a league average SS now (who most likely can improve under J. Oquendo's tutelage).

And for the other poster, Donovan doesn't work in this deal.

He's NOT a SS and that's what the Dodgers need to move Mookie back to the OF.

While I don't think Winn is going to be a "superstar" or anywhere close to "Ozzie territory" at SS, he will be a great player and a draw for fans. I'm just really reluctant to trade Winn.....I think he's the closest to untouchable as a position player in the organization.

None should be untouchable..

Hence the adjective, in the superlative form, "closest."

[JDW]

IF I read FGM's last reply right, he said Burly has better defensive OF numbers than Pages. If that's right, I don't want to trade for a poor defensive OF'er who is a sub .900 OPS guy. Now if he's the next coming of Manny Ramirez, then sure.
Also it isn't an advantage hitting RH in MLB. Strive for players who hit both LHP or RHP well. Baez is a RHH OF prospect for the Cards who is showing plus, plus power with some of his +450' bombs at Springfield. He may be knocking next year, and he can possibly play CF, let alone the corners.
It's an interesting idea, Rock, and a realistic offer the Dodgers might pull the trigger on, but I really value SS defense, heck, I value defense anywhere including the OF, but really, really value up the middle defense.
Also think JJW's best fit will be 2B, as some suggest he doesn't have the arm for 3B, so I don't see him making all the plus throws from SS that Winn does often.
Anyway, thanks for the OP, as it is an intriguing idea.

[renostl]

no thanks

Crazy how many people already want to move Winn

Jobu, it's not "wanting" to get rid of Winn (I'm a big fan) but rather it's structuring a trade idea that actually makes sense.

In this case the Dodgers benefit greatly by strengthening their infield defense and their bullpen.

The Cardinals benefit greatly by acquiring a stud, righthanded hitting OF they control for years.

The Cardinals have JJW playing SS so they have Winn's replacement.

The Dodgers can easily sign K. Tucker to replace Pages in the offseason as well as retain Helsley if they choose to.

You’re really trying to give away Winn.

OPS the last 2 years
Pages: .762
Winn: .723

One plays SS, the other is an OFer. And it’s not like Pages .813 OPS is all that much higher than Winn’s .713. Especially when you factor in elite defense at SS. Winn’s fWAR is 3.0, Pages is 3.2.

And Winn seems to be heating up with an .872 OPS over his last 14 days. Pages is at .709 OPS over his last 28 days and .833 OPS over his last 14.

No "giveaway" at all, fair offer.

2025
Pages
19 HR
.815 OPS
3.1 bWAR

Winn
7 HR
.713 OPS
2.4 bWAR

One plays SS, the other plays CF

And you're IGNORING the Cardinals have NO righthanded hitting OF'ers anywhere close to Pages while having a super talented hitter at Memphis in JJW who's playing SS.

Ok he may not be Winn level defensively but the odds are super strong Winn's not JJW level offensively either, wash.

Again, you can have inane KMOX open line "Let's trade J. Walker and Helsley for A. Pages" ideas

or

You can structure a fair trade.

This is a fair, win-win trade that makes both teams better (especially when you realize the Dodgers can sign K. Tucker if they want to this off season and the Cardinals have JJW ready to step in at SS).

Pages is not the kind of player that I would deal Winn for.

Very low walk rate (4.5%), not a good chase rate (34%), not a great EV (avg 88 mph), not a great barrel% (8%), and a low hard hit% (38%) for a guy that is going to be offense first. He had a great start to the year, other than that he hasn’t shown a ton IMO at the big league level.

So you have no interest in a 24 yr old, right handed hitting OF'er w/power who doesn't hit free agency until 2031

for a weak hitting (career: .257 .308 .386 .694 ), all glove SS who can't steal bases?

I'd make that deal 100 out of 100 times knowing I just added an outstanding hitting righthanded OFer (last one we had was M. Holiday years ago) + I can replace Winn with JJW.

IMO that would be a STEAL for the Cardinals.

Depends on what Pages turns into. If he becomes a .850-.900 OPS player, then that’s great. If he’s more like a .750-.800 OPS player as he has been during his MLB time and as his metrics look like they could be (his expected numbers are .275 avg and .460 SLG combined with probably a .315ish OBP), then I’ll take the 23 year old SS who has had a .723 OPS player over the last 2 years with stud defense. Put Wetherholt at 2B and have the MIF covered for the next decade. Trade Donovan for a power OFer.

Well his "major league time" refers to his rookie season in 2024 and 98 games this season where's he's blossomed into on of the best hitting OF'er (126 OPS+) in MLB.

And no offense but Donny would NEVER bring back a young, controlled for years power hitting OFer like Pages.

He’s basically Burleson (and Burleson’s metrics are actually better than Pages) with better defense.

Avg
Burly: .293 (xAVG: .288)
Pages: .285 (xAVG: .275)

OBP
Burly: .343
Pages: .326

SLG
Burly: .466 (xSLG: .488)
Pages: .489 (xSLG: .460)

BB%
Burly: 7.1%
Pages: 4.8%

K%
Burly: 13.1%
Pages: 21%

Chase rate
Burly: 32.8%
Pages: 34.8%

Contact%:
Burly: 85.9%
Pages: 79.2%

Zone Contact%:
Burly: 90.8%
Pages: 88.0%

Avg EV
Burly: 91.2 mph
Pages: 88.8 mph

Barrel%
Burleson: 9.3%
Pages: 8.0%

Hard hit%
Burleson: 42.5%
Pages: 38.1%


Is that worth Winn and Helsley?

It's interesting though.

IMO, Winn needs to improve a lot as a hitter or he is in the #8 or #9 spot in the lineup. IF that's his top
then is that good with a roster with so little offense coming from positions that offense is part of the job
description.
To me it more to do with what the Cards have. Do they have anyone with .750 + OPS in the system for CF?
IF so a hard pass. Along with JJ what is he? 2B, 3B, SS or that CFer?
Then which do you like better JJ + Winn or JJ + Pages. But you don't just lose Winn in this,
VS2 is becoming available too unless Pages develops more SLG.

[Futuregm2]

no thanks

Crazy how many people already want to move Winn

Jobu, it's not "wanting" to get rid of Winn (I'm a big fan) but rather it's structuring a trade idea that actually makes sense.

In this case the Dodgers benefit greatly by strengthening their infield defense and their bullpen.

The Cardinals benefit greatly by acquiring a stud, righthanded hitting OF they control for years.

The Cardinals have JJW playing SS so they have Winn's replacement.

The Dodgers can easily sign K. Tucker to replace Pages in the offseason as well as retain Helsley if they choose to.

You’re really trying to give away Winn.

OPS the last 2 years
Pages: .762
Winn: .723

One plays SS, the other is an OFer. And it’s not like Pages .813 OPS is all that much higher than Winn’s .713. Especially when you factor in elite defense at SS. Winn’s fWAR is 3.0, Pages is 3.2.

And Winn seems to be heating up with an .872 OPS over his last 14 days. Pages is at .709 OPS over his last 28 days and .833 OPS over his last 14.

No "giveaway" at all, fair offer.

2025
Pages
19 HR
.815 OPS
3.1 bWAR

Winn
7 HR
.713 OPS
2.4 bWAR

One plays SS, the other plays CF

And you're IGNORING the Cardinals have NO righthanded hitting OF'ers anywhere close to Pages while having a super talented hitter at Memphis in JJW who's playing SS.

Ok he may not be Winn level defensively but the odds are super strong Winn's not JJW level offensively either, wash.

Again, you can have inane KMOX open line "Let's trade J. Walker and Helsley for A. Pages" ideas

or

You can structure a fair trade.

This is a fair, win-win trade that makes both teams better (especially when you realize the Dodgers can sign K. Tucker if they want to this off season and the Cardinals have JJW ready to step in at SS).

Pages is not the kind of player that I would deal Winn for.

Very low walk rate (4.5%), not a good chase rate (34%), not a great EV (avg 88 mph), not a great barrel% (8%), and a low hard hit% (38%) for a guy that is going to be offense first. He had a great start to the year, other than that he hasn’t shown a ton IMO at the big league level.

So you have no interest in a 24 yr old, right handed hitting OF'er w/power who doesn't hit free agency until 2031

for a weak hitting (career: .257 .308 .386 .694 ), all glove SS who can't steal bases?

I'd make that deal 100 out of 100 times knowing I just added an outstanding hitting righthanded OFer (last one we had was M. Holiday years ago) + I can replace Winn with JJW.

IMO that would be a STEAL for the Cardinals.

Depends on what Pages turns into. If he becomes a .850-.900 OPS player, then that’s great. If he’s more like a .750-.800 OPS player as he has been during his MLB time and as his metrics look like they could be (his expected numbers are .275 avg and .460 SLG combined with probably a .315ish OBP), then I’ll take the 23 year old SS who has had a .723 OPS player over the last 2 years with stud defense. Put Wetherholt at 2B and have the MIF covered for the next decade. Trade Donovan for a power OFer.

Well his "major league time" refers to his rookie season in 2024 and 98 games this season where's he's blossomed into on of the best hitting OF'er (126 OPS+) in MLB.

And no offense but Donny would NEVER bring back a young, controlled for years power hitting OFer like Pages.

He’s basically Burleson (and Burleson’s metrics are actually better than Pages) with better defense.

Avg
Burly: .293 (xAVG: .288)
Pages: .285 (xAVG: .275)

OBP
Burly: .343
Pages: .326

SLG
Burly: .466 (xSLG: .488)
Pages: .489 (xSLG: .460)

BB%
Burly: 7.1%
Pages: 4.8%

K%
Burly: 13.1%
Pages: 21%

Chase rate
Burly: 32.8%
Pages: 34.8%

Contact%:
Burly: 85.9%
Pages: 79.2%

Zone Contact%:
Burly: 90.8%
Pages: 88.0%

Avg EV
Burly: 91.2 mph
Pages: 88.8 mph

Barrel%
Burleson: 9.3%
Pages: 8.0%

Hard hit%
Burleson: 42.5%
Pages: 38.1%


Is that worth Winn and Helsley?

Is Burleson a righthanded hitting, 24 year old who can actually play the OF?

NOPE

Or is he................

How this for a comp?

Player A
2024 - Rookie season
10 HR
47 RBI
.237 .286 .384 .670

2025
26 HR
73 RBI
.270 .305 .555 .860

-vs-

A. Pages
2024 - Rookie season
13 HR
46 RBI
.248 .305 .407 .712

2025
19 HR
63 RBI (and this RBI total is w/Ohtani-Betts-Freeman-Smith-Hernandez and all their RBI's in front of him!)
.285 .326 .489 .815

Player A = P. Crow-Armstrong

A) Why does it matter what he hits? Walker bats RH, Baez bats RH, those are two of what should have been/should be our better OFers talent wise. And Burleson is the only legit LH bat that can hit in the middle of the order and even that is borderline. The other legit MOTOB’s (Contreras/Herrera) that we have are RH. So if anything we should be looking for a LH bat that can hit 4th.

B) Yes, Burleson has played OF more than any other position this year.

C) Yes, Pages has benefitted from hitting in a stacked lineup, thanks for pointing that out.

[12xu]

I don't think it is a terrible idea, but I liked the trade you brought up yesterday better. In that one, the Dodgers would send Pages to St. Louis for Helsley and Nootbaar. I thought that would not be enough, and suggested adding Maton or Arenado to LA. I would rather give up Noot and Maton or Arenado instead of Winn.

Yeah, they don't want our garbage. Noots injured too

You calling Maton and Helsley garbage is just you showing your ignorance. They may be FA at the end of the year, but both could give LA a solid bullpen for their playoff push. Arenado is not what he was 3 years ago, but he is still a better defensive 3rd baseman than anyone currently on the Dodgers' roster. He could also come alive at the plate for the rest of this season if moved to LA. Noot is injured again, but he it is also possible for him to fill in some for the absence of Pages.

[rockondlouie]

no thanks

Crazy how many people already want to move Winn

Jobu, it's not "wanting" to get rid of Winn (I'm a big fan) but rather it's structuring a trade idea that actually makes sense.

In this case the Dodgers benefit greatly by strengthening their infield defense and their bullpen.

The Cardinals benefit greatly by acquiring a stud, righthanded hitting OF they control for years.

The Cardinals have JJW playing SS so they have Winn's replacement.

The Dodgers can easily sign K. Tucker to replace Pages in the offseason as well as retain Helsley if they choose to.

You’re really trying to give away Winn.

OPS the last 2 years
Pages: .762
Winn: .723

One plays SS, the other is an OFer. And it’s not like Pages .813 OPS is all that much higher than Winn’s .713. Especially when you factor in elite defense at SS. Winn’s fWAR is 3.0, Pages is 3.2.

And Winn seems to be heating up with an .872 OPS over his last 14 days. Pages is at .709 OPS over his last 28 days and .833 OPS over his last 14.

No "giveaway" at all, fair offer.

2025
Pages
19 HR
.815 OPS
3.1 bWAR

Winn
7 HR
.713 OPS
2.4 bWAR

One plays SS, the other plays CF

And you're IGNORING the Cardinals have NO righthanded hitting OF'ers anywhere close to Pages while having a super talented hitter at Memphis in JJW who's playing SS.

Ok he may not be Winn level defensively but the odds are super strong Winn's not JJW level offensively either, wash.

Again, you can have inane KMOX open line "Let's trade J. Walker and Helsley for A. Pages" ideas

or

You can structure a fair trade.

This is a fair, win-win trade that makes both teams better (especially when you realize the Dodgers can sign K. Tucker if they want to this off season and the Cardinals have JJW ready to step in at SS).

Pages is not the kind of player that I would deal Winn for.

Very low walk rate (4.5%), not a good chase rate (34%), not a great EV (avg 88 mph), not a great barrel% (8%), and a low hard hit% (38%) for a guy that is going to be offense first. He had a great start to the year, other than that he hasn’t shown a ton IMO at the big league level.

So you have no interest in a 24 yr old, right handed hitting OF'er w/power who doesn't hit free agency until 2031

for a weak hitting (career: .257 .308 .386 .694 ), all glove SS who can't steal bases?

I'd make that deal 100 out of 100 times knowing I just added an outstanding hitting righthanded OFer (last one we had was M. Holiday years ago) + I can replace Winn with JJW.

IMO that would be a STEAL for the Cardinals.

Depends on what Pages turns into. If he becomes a .850-.900 OPS player, then that’s great. If he’s more like a .750-.800 OPS player as he has been during his MLB time and as his metrics look like they could be (his expected numbers are .275 avg and .460 SLG combined with probably a .315ish OBP), then I’ll take the 23 year old SS who has had a .723 OPS player over the last 2 years with stud defense. Put Wetherholt at 2B and have the MIF covered for the next decade. Trade Donovan for a power OFer.

Well his "major league time" refers to his rookie season in 2024 and 98 games this season where's he's blossomed into on of the best hitting OF'er (126 OPS+) in MLB.

And no offense but Donny would NEVER bring back a young, controlled for years power hitting OFer like Pages.

He’s basically Burleson (and Burleson’s metrics are actually better than Pages) with better defense.

Avg
Burly: .293 (xAVG: .288)
Pages: .285 (xAVG: .275)

OBP
Burly: .343
Pages: .326

SLG
Burly: .466 (xSLG: .488)
Pages: .489 (xSLG: .460)

BB%
Burly: 7.1%
Pages: 4.8%

K%
Burly: 13.1%
Pages: 21%

Chase rate
Burly: 32.8%
Pages: 34.8%

Contact%:
Burly: 85.9%
Pages: 79.2%

Zone Contact%:
Burly: 90.8%
Pages: 88.0%

Avg EV
Burly: 91.2 mph
Pages: 88.8 mph

Barrel%
Burleson: 9.3%
Pages: 8.0%

Hard hit%
Burleson: 42.5%
Pages: 38.1%


Is that worth Winn and Helsley?

Is Burleson a righthanded hitting, 24 year old who can actually play the OF?

NOPE

Or is he................

How this for a comp?

Player A
2024 - Rookie season
10 HR
47 RBI
.237 .286 .384 .670

2025
26 HR
73 RBI
.270 .305 .555 .860

-vs-

A. Pages
2024 - Rookie season
13 HR
46 RBI
.248 .305 .407 .712

2025
19 HR
63 RBI (and this RBI total is w/Ohtani-Betts-Freeman-Smith-Hernandez and all their RBI's in front of him!)
.285 .326 .489 .815

Player A = P. Crow-Armstrong

A) Why does it matter what he hits? Walker bats RH, Baez bats RH, those are two of what should have been/should be our better OFers talent wise. And Burleson is the only legit LH bat that can hit in the middle of the order and even that is borderline. The other legit MOTOB’s (Contreras/Herrera) that we have are RH. So if anything we should be looking for a LH bat that can hit 4th.

B) Yes, Burleson has played OF more than any other position this year.

C) Yes, Pages has benefitted from hitting in a stacked lineup, thanks for pointing that out.

Why?

A)
Because you know as well as I do this team LACKS a quality righthanded hitting OF'er.

(Walker is a bust thus far, Baez isn't even in the conversation yet)

B)
Why are we even discussing Bumbles, he wasn't in the trade?

C)
Not my point one bit.

My point was his RBI total would've been even greater if those great hitters weren't pouching RBI's from him.

The Pages to PCA comp is compelling.

You're overrating Winn's trade value.

I make that trade 100/100 times and never look back.

[Futuregm2]

Crazy how many people already want to move Winn

Jobu, it's not "wanting" to get rid of Winn (I'm a big fan) but rather it's structuring a trade idea that actually makes sense.

In this case the Dodgers benefit greatly by strengthening their infield defense and their bullpen.

The Cardinals benefit greatly by acquiring a stud, righthanded hitting OF they control for years.

The Cardinals have JJW playing SS so they have Winn's replacement.

The Dodgers can easily sign K. Tucker to replace Pages in the offseason as well as retain Helsley if they choose to.

You’re really trying to give away Winn.

OPS the last 2 years
Pages: .762
Winn: .723

One plays SS, the other is an OFer. And it’s not like Pages .813 OPS is all that much higher than Winn’s .713. Especially when you factor in elite defense at SS. Winn’s fWAR is 3.0, Pages is 3.2.

And Winn seems to be heating up with an .872 OPS over his last 14 days. Pages is at .709 OPS over his last 28 days and .833 OPS over his last 14.

No "giveaway" at all, fair offer.

2025
Pages
19 HR
.815 OPS
3.1 bWAR

Winn
7 HR
.713 OPS
2.4 bWAR

One plays SS, the other plays CF

And you're IGNORING the Cardinals have NO righthanded hitting OF'ers anywhere close to Pages while having a super talented hitter at Memphis in JJW who's playing SS.

Ok he may not be Winn level defensively but the odds are super strong Winn's not JJW level offensively either, wash.

Again, you can have inane KMOX open line "Let's trade J. Walker and Helsley for A. Pages" ideas

or

You can structure a fair trade.

This is a fair, win-win trade that makes both teams better (especially when you realize the Dodgers can sign K. Tucker if they want to this off season and the Cardinals have JJW ready to step in at SS).

Pages is not the kind of player that I would deal Winn for.

Very low walk rate (4.5%), not a good chase rate (34%), not a great EV (avg 88 mph), not a great barrel% (8%), and a low hard hit% (38%) for a guy that is going to be offense first. He had a great start to the year, other than that he hasn’t shown a ton IMO at the big league level.

So you have no interest in a 24 yr old, right handed hitting OF'er w/power who doesn't hit free agency until 2031

for a weak hitting (career: .257 .308 .386 .694 ), all glove SS who can't steal bases?

I'd make that deal 100 out of 100 times knowing I just added an outstanding hitting righthanded OFer (last one we had was M. Holiday years ago) + I can replace Winn with JJW.

IMO that would be a STEAL for the Cardinals.

Depends on what Pages turns into. If he becomes a .850-.900 OPS player, then that’s great. If he’s more like a .750-.800 OPS player as he has been during his MLB time and as his metrics look like they could be (his expected numbers are .275 avg and .460 SLG combined with probably a .315ish OBP), then I’ll take the 23 year old SS who has had a .723 OPS player over the last 2 years with stud defense. Put Wetherholt at 2B and have the MIF covered for the next decade. Trade Donovan for a power OFer.

Well his "major league time" refers to his rookie season in 2024 and 98 games this season where's he's blossomed into on of the best hitting OF'er (126 OPS+) in MLB.

And no offense but Donny would NEVER bring back a young, controlled for years power hitting OFer like Pages.

He’s basically Burleson (and Burleson’s metrics are actually better than Pages) with better defense.

Avg
Burly: .293 (xAVG: .288)
Pages: .285 (xAVG: .275)

OBP
Burly: .343
Pages: .326

SLG
Burly: .466 (xSLG: .488)
Pages: .489 (xSLG: .460)

BB%
Burly: 7.1%
Pages: 4.8%

K%
Burly: 13.1%
Pages: 21%

Chase rate
Burly: 32.8%
Pages: 34.8%

Contact%:
Burly: 85.9%
Pages: 79.2%

Zone Contact%:
Burly: 90.8%
Pages: 88.0%

Avg EV
Burly: 91.2 mph
Pages: 88.8 mph

Barrel%
Burleson: 9.3%
Pages: 8.0%

Hard hit%
Burleson: 42.5%
Pages: 38.1%


Is that worth Winn and Helsley?

Is Burleson a righthanded hitting, 24 year old who can actually play the OF?

NOPE

Or is he................

How this for a comp?

Player A
2024 - Rookie season
10 HR
47 RBI
.237 .286 .384 .670

2025
26 HR
73 RBI
.270 .305 .555 .860

-vs-

A. Pages
2024 - Rookie season
13 HR
46 RBI
.248 .305 .407 .712

2025
19 HR
63 RBI (and this RBI total is w/Ohtani-Betts-Freeman-Smith-Hernandez and all their RBI's in front of him!)
.285 .326 .489 .815

Player A = P. Crow-Armstrong

A) Why does it matter what he hits? Walker bats RH, Baez bats RH, those are two of what should have been/should be our better OFers talent wise. And Burleson is the only legit LH bat that can hit in the middle of the order and even that is borderline. The other legit MOTOB’s (Contreras/Herrera) that we have are RH. So if anything we should be looking for a LH bat that can hit 4th.

B) Yes, Burleson has played OF more than any other position this year.

C) Yes, Pages has benefitted from hitting in a stacked lineup, thanks for pointing that out.

Why?

A)
Because you know as well as I do this team LACKS a quality righthanded hitting OF'er.

(Walker is a bust thus far, Baez isn't even in the conversation yet)

B)
Why are we even discussing Bumbles, he wasn't in the trade?

C)
Not my point one bit.

My point was his RBI total would've been even greater if those great hitters weren't pouching RBI's from him.

The Pages to PCA comp is compelling.

You're overrating Winn's trade value.

I make that trade 100/100 times and never look back.

And you’re underrating a 23 year old SS that is among the league’s elite defensively and is at least average with the bat. I wouldn’t be looking to get rid of him. The moment we actually have a player live up to what we expect, we’re looking to deal him.

[scoutyjones2]

Jobu, it's not "wanting" to get rid of Winn (I'm a big fan) but rather it's structuring a trade idea that actually makes sense.

In this case the Dodgers benefit greatly by strengthening their infield defense and their bullpen.

The Cardinals benefit greatly by acquiring a stud, righthanded hitting OF they control for years.

The Cardinals have JJW playing SS so they have Winn's replacement.

The Dodgers can easily sign K. Tucker to replace Pages in the offseason as well as retain Helsley if they choose to.

You’re really trying to give away Winn.

OPS the last 2 years
Pages: .762
Winn: .723

One plays SS, the other is an OFer. And it’s not like Pages .813 OPS is all that much higher than Winn’s .713. Especially when you factor in elite defense at SS. Winn’s fWAR is 3.0, Pages is 3.2.

And Winn seems to be heating up with an .872 OPS over his last 14 days. Pages is at .709 OPS over his last 28 days and .833 OPS over his last 14.

No "giveaway" at all, fair offer.

2025
Pages
19 HR
.815 OPS
3.1 bWAR

Winn
7 HR
.713 OPS
2.4 bWAR

One plays SS, the other plays CF

And you're IGNORING the Cardinals have NO righthanded hitting OF'ers anywhere close to Pages while having a super talented hitter at Memphis in JJW who's playing SS.

Ok he may not be Winn level defensively but the odds are super strong Winn's not JJW level offensively either, wash.

Again, you can have inane KMOX open line "Let's trade J. Walker and Helsley for A. Pages" ideas

or

You can structure a fair trade.

This is a fair, win-win trade that makes both teams better (especially when you realize the Dodgers can sign K. Tucker if they want to this off season and the Cardinals have JJW ready to step in at SS).

Pages is not the kind of player that I would deal Winn for.

Very low walk rate (4.5%), not a good chase rate (34%), not a great EV (avg 88 mph), not a great barrel% (8%), and a low hard hit% (38%) for a guy that is going to be offense first. He had a great start to the year, other than that he hasn’t shown a ton IMO at the big league level.

So you have no interest in a 24 yr old, right handed hitting OF'er w/power who doesn't hit free agency until 2031

for a weak hitting (career: .257 .308 .386 .694 ), all glove SS who can't steal bases?

I'd make that deal 100 out of 100 times knowing I just added an outstanding hitting righthanded OFer (last one we had was M. Holiday years ago) + I can replace Winn with JJW.

IMO that would be a STEAL for the Cardinals.

Depends on what Pages turns into. If he becomes a .850-.900 OPS player, then that’s great. If he’s more like a .750-.800 OPS player as he has been during his MLB time and as his metrics look like they could be (his expected numbers are .275 avg and .460 SLG combined with probably a .315ish OBP), then I’ll take the 23 year old SS who has had a .723 OPS player over the last 2 years with stud defense. Put Wetherholt at 2B and have the MIF covered for the next decade. Trade Donovan for a power OFer.

Well his "major league time" refers to his rookie season in 2024 and 98 games this season where's he's blossomed into on of the best hitting OF'er (126 OPS+) in MLB.

And no offense but Donny would NEVER bring back a young, controlled for years power hitting OFer like Pages.

He’s basically Burleson (and Burleson’s metrics are actually better than Pages) with better defense.

Avg
Burly: .293 (xAVG: .288)
Pages: .285 (xAVG: .275)

OBP
Burly: .343
Pages: .326

SLG
Burly: .466 (xSLG: .488)
Pages: .489 (xSLG: .460)

BB%
Burly: 7.1%
Pages: 4.8%

K%
Burly: 13.1%
Pages: 21%

Chase rate
Burly: 32.8%
Pages: 34.8%

Contact%:
Burly: 85.9%
Pages: 79.2%

Zone Contact%:
Burly: 90.8%
Pages: 88.0%

Avg EV
Burly: 91.2 mph
Pages: 88.8 mph

Barrel%
Burleson: 9.3%
Pages: 8.0%

Hard hit%
Burleson: 42.5%
Pages: 38.1%


Is that worth Winn and Helsley?

Is Burleson a righthanded hitting, 24 year old who can actually play the OF?

NOPE

Or is he................

How this for a comp?

Player A
2024 - Rookie season
10 HR
47 RBI
.237 .286 .384 .670

2025
26 HR
73 RBI
.270 .305 .555 .860

-vs-

A. Pages
2024 - Rookie season
13 HR
46 RBI
.248 .305 .407 .712

2025
19 HR
63 RBI (and this RBI total is w/Ohtani-Betts-Freeman-Smith-Hernandez and all their RBI's in front of him!)
.285 .326 .489 .815

Player A = P. Crow-Armstrong

A) Why does it matter what he hits? Walker bats RH, Baez bats RH, those are two of what should have been/should be our better OFers talent wise. And Burleson is the only legit LH bat that can hit in the middle of the order and even that is borderline. The other legit MOTOB’s (Contreras/Herrera) that we have are RH. So if anything we should be looking for a LH bat that can hit 4th.

B) Yes, Burleson has played OF more than any other position this year.

C) Yes, Pages has benefitted from hitting in a stacked lineup, thanks for pointing that out.

Why?

A)
Because you know as well as I do this team LACKS a quality righthanded hitting OF'er.

(Walker is a bust thus far, Baez isn't even in the conversation yet)

B)
Why are we even discussing Bumbles, he wasn't in the trade?

C)
Not my point one bit.

My point was his RBI total would've been even greater if those great hitters weren't pouching RBI's from him.

The Pages to PCA comp is compelling.

You're overrating Winn's trade value.

I make that trade 100/100 times and never look back.

And you’re underrating a 23 year old SS that is among the league’s elite defensively and is at least average with the bat. I wouldn’t be looking to get rid of him. The moment we actually have a player live up to what we expect, we’re looking to deal him.

Two things

First, it's not undermining Winn. It's getting a piece the Cards need and have none within the organization to play OF, and hit with power from the right side. Cards have JJ playing SS.

Second, Rock hates Winn

[rockondlouie]

Jobu, it's not "wanting" to get rid of Winn (I'm a big fan) but rather it's structuring a trade idea that actually makes sense.

In this case the Dodgers benefit greatly by strengthening their infield defense and their bullpen.

The Cardinals benefit greatly by acquiring a stud, righthanded hitting OF they control for years.

The Cardinals have JJW playing SS so they have Winn's replacement.

The Dodgers can easily sign K. Tucker to replace Pages in the offseason as well as retain Helsley if they choose to.

You’re really trying to give away Winn.

OPS the last 2 years
Pages: .762
Winn: .723

One plays SS, the other is an OFer. And it’s not like Pages .813 OPS is all that much higher than Winn’s .713. Especially when you factor in elite defense at SS. Winn’s fWAR is 3.0, Pages is 3.2.

And Winn seems to be heating up with an .872 OPS over his last 14 days. Pages is at .709 OPS over his last 28 days and .833 OPS over his last 14.

No "giveaway" at all, fair offer.

2025
Pages
19 HR
.815 OPS
3.1 bWAR

Winn
7 HR
.713 OPS
2.4 bWAR

One plays SS, the other plays CF

And you're IGNORING the Cardinals have NO righthanded hitting OF'ers anywhere close to Pages while having a super talented hitter at Memphis in JJW who's playing SS.

Ok he may not be Winn level defensively but the odds are super strong Winn's not JJW level offensively either, wash.

Again, you can have inane KMOX open line "Let's trade J. Walker and Helsley for A. Pages" ideas

or

You can structure a fair trade.

This is a fair, win-win trade that makes both teams better (especially when you realize the Dodgers can sign K. Tucker if they want to this off season and the Cardinals have JJW ready to step in at SS).

Pages is not the kind of player that I would deal Winn for.

Very low walk rate (4.5%), not a good chase rate (34%), not a great EV (avg 88 mph), not a great barrel% (8%), and a low hard hit% (38%) for a guy that is going to be offense first. He had a great start to the year, other than that he hasn’t shown a ton IMO at the big league level.

So you have no interest in a 24 yr old, right handed hitting OF'er w/power who doesn't hit free agency until 2031

for a weak hitting (career: .257 .308 .386 .694 ), all glove SS who can't steal bases?

I'd make that deal 100 out of 100 times knowing I just added an outstanding hitting righthanded OFer (last one we had was M. Holiday years ago) + I can replace Winn with JJW.

IMO that would be a STEAL for the Cardinals.

Depends on what Pages turns into. If he becomes a .850-.900 OPS player, then that’s great. If he’s more like a .750-.800 OPS player as he has been during his MLB time and as his metrics look like they could be (his expected numbers are .275 avg and .460 SLG combined with probably a .315ish OBP), then I’ll take the 23 year old SS who has had a .723 OPS player over the last 2 years with stud defense. Put Wetherholt at 2B and have the MIF covered for the next decade. Trade Donovan for a power OFer.

Well his "major league time" refers to his rookie season in 2024 and 98 games this season where's he's blossomed into on of the best hitting OF'er (126 OPS+) in MLB.

And no offense but Donny would NEVER bring back a young, controlled for years power hitting OFer like Pages.

He’s basically Burleson (and Burleson’s metrics are actually better than Pages) with better defense.

Avg
Burly: .293 (xAVG: .288)
Pages: .285 (xAVG: .275)

OBP
Burly: .343
Pages: .326

SLG
Burly: .466 (xSLG: .488)
Pages: .489 (xSLG: .460)

BB%
Burly: 7.1%
Pages: 4.8%

K%
Burly: 13.1%
Pages: 21%

Chase rate
Burly: 32.8%
Pages: 34.8%

Contact%:
Burly: 85.9%
Pages: 79.2%

Zone Contact%:
Burly: 90.8%
Pages: 88.0%

Avg EV
Burly: 91.2 mph
Pages: 88.8 mph

Barrel%
Burleson: 9.3%
Pages: 8.0%

Hard hit%
Burleson: 42.5%
Pages: 38.1%


Is that worth Winn and Helsley?

Is Burleson a righthanded hitting, 24 year old who can actually play the OF?

NOPE

Or is he................

How this for a comp?

Player A
2024 - Rookie season
10 HR
47 RBI
.237 .286 .384 .670

2025
26 HR
73 RBI
.270 .305 .555 .860

-vs-

A. Pages
2024 - Rookie season
13 HR
46 RBI
.248 .305 .407 .712

2025
19 HR
63 RBI (and this RBI total is w/Ohtani-Betts-Freeman-Smith-Hernandez and all their RBI's in front of him!)
.285 .326 .489 .815

Player A = P. Crow-Armstrong

A) Why does it matter what he hits? Walker bats RH, Baez bats RH, those are two of what should have been/should be our better OFers talent wise. And Burleson is the only legit LH bat that can hit in the middle of the order and even that is borderline. The other legit MOTOB’s (Contreras/Herrera) that we have are RH. So if anything we should be looking for a LH bat that can hit 4th.

B) Yes, Burleson has played OF more than any other position this year.

C) Yes, Pages has benefitted from hitting in a stacked lineup, thanks for pointing that out.

Why?

A)
Because you know as well as I do this team LACKS a quality righthanded hitting OF'er.

(Walker is a bust thus far, Baez isn't even in the conversation yet)

B)
Why are we even discussing Bumbles, he wasn't in the trade?

C)
Not my point one bit.

My point was his RBI total would've been even greater if those great hitters weren't pouching RBI's from him.

The Pages to PCA comp is compelling.

You're overrating Winn's trade value.

I make that trade 100/100 times and never look back.

And you’re underrating a 23 year old SS that is among the league’s elite defensively and is at least average with the bat. I wouldn’t be looking to get rid of him. The moment we actually have a player live up to what we expect, we’re looking to deal him.

Who wore down in September last season (.196 .234 .382 .616).

Elite defense?

Absolutely

Average offense?

Absolutely

Poor base stealer?

Absolutely


Again, what is this bull c r a p that I'm "trying to get rid of him" like he's Miles Mikolas or the former Cardinal Eric Fedde?

I'm making a baseball trade where I'm gaining an elite RHHing OFer w/control until 2031 knowing good and well it would cost us a good player too.

Again, J. Walker and Helsley would get the phone slammed down in your ear.

Winn + Helsley would at least make them think.

[makesnosense]

no thanks

Crazy how many people already want to move Winn

Jobu, it's not "wanting" to get rid of Winn (I'm a big fan) but rather it's structuring a trade idea that actually makes sense.

In this case the Dodgers benefit greatly by strengthening their infield defense and their bullpen.

The Cardinals benefit greatly by acquiring a stud, righthanded hitting OF they control for years.

The Cardinals have JJW playing SS so they have Winn's replacement.

The Dodgers can easily sign K. Tucker to replace Pages in the offseason as well as retain Helsley if they choose to.

You’re really trying to give away Winn.

OPS the last 2 years
Pages: .762
Winn: .723

One plays SS, the other is an OFer. And it’s not like Pages .813 OPS is all that much higher than Winn’s .713. Especially when you factor in elite defense at SS. Winn’s fWAR is 3.0, Pages is 3.2.

And Winn seems to be heating up with an .872 OPS over his last 14 days. Pages is at .709 OPS over his last 28 days and .833 OPS over his last 14.

No "giveaway" at all, fair offer.

2025
Pages
19 HR
.815 OPS
3.1 bWAR

Winn
7 HR
.713 OPS
2.4 bWAR

One plays SS, the other plays CF

And you're IGNORING the Cardinals have NO righthanded hitting OF'ers anywhere close to Pages while having a super talented hitter at Memphis in JJW who's playing SS.

Ok he may not be Winn level defensively but the odds are super strong Winn's not JJW level offensively either, wash.

Again, you can have inane KMOX open line "Let's trade J. Walker and Helsley for A. Pages" ideas

or

You can structure a fair trade.

This is a fair, win-win trade that makes both teams better (especially when you realize the Dodgers can sign K. Tucker if they want to this off season and the Cardinals have JJW ready to step in at SS).

Pages is not the kind of player that I would deal Winn for.

Very low walk rate (4.5%), not a good chase rate (34%), not a great EV (avg 88 mph), not a great barrel% (8%), and a low hard hit% (38%) for a guy that is going to be offense first. He had a great start to the year, other than that he hasn’t shown a ton IMO at the big league level.

So you have no interest in a 24 yr old, right handed hitting OF'er w/power who doesn't hit free agency until 2031

for a weak hitting (career: .257 .308 .386 .694 ), all glove SS who can't steal bases?

I'd make that deal 100 out of 100 times knowing I just added an outstanding hitting righthanded OFer (last one we had was M. Holiday years ago) + I can replace Winn with JJW.

IMO that would be a STEAL for the Cardinals.

Depends on what Pages turns into. If he becomes a .850-.900 OPS player, then that’s great. If he’s more like a .750-.800 OPS player as he has been during his MLB time and as his metrics look like they could be (his expected numbers are .275 avg and .460 SLG combined with probably a .315ish OBP), then I’ll take the 23 year old SS who has had a .723 OPS player over the last 2 years with stud defense. Put Wetherholt at 2B and have the MIF covered for the next decade. Trade Donovan for a power OFer.

Well his "major league time" refers to his rookie season in 2024 and 98 games this season where's he's blossomed into on of the best hitting OF'er (126 OPS+) in MLB.

And no offense but Donny would NEVER bring back a young, controlled for years power hitting OFer like Pages.

He’s basically Burleson (and Burleson’s metrics are actually better than Pages) with better defense.

Avg
Burly: .293 (xAVG: .288)
Pages: .285 (xAVG: .275)

OBP
Burly: .343
Pages: .326

SLG
Burly: .466 (xSLG: .488)
Pages: .489 (xSLG: .460)

BB%
Burly: 7.1%
Pages: 4.8%

K%
Burly: 13.1%
Pages: 21%

Chase rate
Burly: 32.8%
Pages: 34.8%

Contact%:
Burly: 85.9%
Pages: 79.2%

Zone Contact%:
Burly: 90.8%
Pages: 88.0%

Avg EV
Burly: 91.2 mph
Pages: 88.8 mph

Barrel%
Burleson: 9.3%
Pages: 8.0%

Hard hit%
Burleson: 42.5%
Pages: 38.1%


Is that worth Winn and Helsley?

Without a doubt it is.

[knttiger]

I'd like this trade if you substituted Noot for Winn. Not sure we can afford to give up a .270 hitter when we struggle on offense as much as we do. Only reason I'd move him would be for a solid #2 starting pitcher or packaged for a horse.

[Quincy Varnish]

Is Burleson a righthanded hitting, 24 year old who can actually play the OF?

NOPE

Or is he................

How this for a comp?

Player A
2024 - Rookie season
10 HR
47 RBI
.237 .286 .384 .670

2025
26 HR
73 RBI
.270 .305 .555 .860

-vs-

A. Pages
2024 - Rookie season
13 HR
46 RBI
.248 .305 .407 .712

2025
19 HR
63 RBI (and this RBI total is w/Ohtani-Betts-Freeman-Smith-Hernandez and all their RBI's in front of him!)
.285 .326 .489 .815

Player A = P. Crow-Armstrong

[Youboughtit]

Serious question.....why trade Winn? I know you have to give to get, but Winn should be a centerpiece in the Cardinals rebuild.

Currently ranked SS22. Stop with the centerpiece talk. He’s a below average hitter and an above average fielder. Nothing more.

[Youboughtit]

I'd like this trade if you substituted Noot for Winn. Not sure we can afford to give up a .270 hitter when we struggle on offense as much as we do. Only reason I'd move him would be for a solid #2 starting pitcher or packaged for a horse.

Then who you adding because Noot has half the value of Winn. No way they take that deal. Noot has maxed as a 4th OF

[rockondlouie]

Currently ranked SS22. Stop with the centerpiece talk. He’s a below average hitter and an above average fielder. Nothing more.

+1

[Futuregm2]

Serious question.....why trade Winn? I know you have to give to get, but Winn should be a centerpiece in the Cardinals rebuild.

Currently ranked SS22. Stop with the centerpiece talk. He’s a below average hitter and an above average fielder. Nothing more.

SS22 in what? In fWAR he is the 7th best SS in baseball this season. He is an average hitter and elite defender, his defensive rating is the best among SS’s. He’s #1 in fielding% and T-2nd in OAA.