2025 MLB Draft Room ~ Thread, Mocks, Discussion, Draft Boards

[swatski]

Hasn’t Arnold experienced some arm soreness lately leading to lack of precise control which is one of his strengths?

[RunSup]

Hjerpe, Hence out for surgery. Mathews down with shoulder soreness. Roby always a concern...

Maybe just draft best pitcher available and go early and often on pitching. I know go best player available, but...

Curious: What pitchers have developed from Flores drafts?

[craviduce]

Hjerpe, Hence out for surgery. Mathews down with shoulder soreness. Roby always a concern...

Maybe just draft best pitcher available and go early and often on pitching. I know go best player available, but...

Curious: What pitchers have developed from Flores drafts?

Thompson, Leahy, McGreevy, Graceffo. He was head of scouting in 2016...so you can give him some credit for the 2016 pitching haul which included major leaguers Hudson and Gallen

[craviduce]

Hasn’t Arnold experienced some arm soreness lately leading to lack of precise control which is one of his strengths?

the only thing I have on him this season is a finger issue back in February during a Lab session, and He was sick with the Flu back in March. If a pundit said/wrote about this, I missed it. If it's true we'll be hearing more about it as the draft nears. As it stands now, he's 1-1 or 1-2 in the draft, maybe 1-3 based off wonky teams making wonky decisions come draft day (here's toasting you Angels)

[billybaseball]

I think the Rockies take Hernandez at 4 no matter who is on the board. Who else needs a generational type pitcher than the Rockies. I think his FB/CH combo could work better than most pitchers at Coors too.

Seattle has me concerned....they love to make trends....they're on that High School SS trend at the moment, but that might've ran its course. They used to draft college pitcher only before the HS SS trend. I think they start a new one...

HS pitchers. They have the R&D and Tool department to go ham on a pick like Hernandez

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And if the Rox draft Hernandez, he would need to really considering honoring his Vandy commitment . I wouldn't want to pitch in Denver

I just think Seattle needs a bat really bad and they are in the position where they can afford to draft on need. Even if it's not a college bat I could see them taking the top prep bat on the board.

I wonder why anyone would agree to play for Colorado. But do you risk 10m? How much NIL are baseball players getting in college?

[ramfandan]

Billy Carlson SS Corona HS (California) .. 5th pick to Cardinals

It's April 17th and at this date don't see the early mocks with Carlson to Cardinals at 5 .. Feel he may be the best athlete on the board at Cardinals slot. He may surprise some draft experts that he was taken at 5 but not me. If Holliday is gone and a couple of the top pitchers off the board too, he may be the guy.

First, I realize some will say . Why would Cardinals pick a SS ? We have Masyn Winn. Well, my philosophy in drafting is taking the 'best player' .
Just have a hunch , Carlson may be the very best player 'on the board' when Flores has his selection,

Here is a profile on Carlson :
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (HS) — 60 FV

Carlson is every scout’s dream. At 6’1 175 it’s a thin, projectable build with strength to come. He’s consistently put up some of the best athletic testing numbers in the class, posting plus run times and possessing premium jump testing data. The athleticism is on full display at SS, where he’s got elite actions, range, and instincts to match his plus-plus arm. He’s firmly the best SS in the class, and will likely be a perennial gold-glove caliber defender at his peak. I’ve got a 60 hit tool here. It’s 15% whiffs to 7% chase, with steady results vs. both 90+ and breaking-balls. This is a kid who can manipulate the barrel and has the pitch-tracking skills to hold up against higher-quality stuff. While the in-game power has yet to come on in full, he’ll flash it with his top EV of 105 mph coming on a 27 degree HR. There’s also bat speed in there, peaking at 81.1 mph with a 22.8 mph average hand speed. I’ve got him at 60 future game power. He’s very much of that Dansby Swanson archetype, granted the tools are louder. It’s 60 hit, 60 power, 60 run, 70 field, 70 arm for me… he’s a true five-tool player and when you say it out loud it’s a 6 WAR guy. Easy slam dunk 1.1.

PS. Masyn Winn four years from now will be free agent . Carlson will be 19 yrs. old on July 29th so he would be 23 years old when Winn reaches free agency .

[craviduce]

If anyone still has ESPN+, could you copy/paste the MLB Mock draft rankings by Kiley McDaniels?

Thanks

[craviduce]

If anyone still has ESPN+, could you copy/paste the MLB Mock draft rankings by Kiley McDaniels?

Thanks

both Midseason Mock Draft and Draft rankings....thanks

[cardinalsfever44]

Midseason ESPN Draft Rankings:

I'm not going to sugarcoat it: This year's draft class is not as good as last year's college-heavy crop and certainly not as good as the historic 2023 draft group featuring Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford near the top.

There isn't a clear No. 1 overall prospect separating from the pack, so the intrigue is especially high about what the Washington Nationals will do with the top pick and the associated bonus pool considering there are about a half-dozen defensible choices they could make. The Los Angeles Angels have the No. 2 pick and tend to take the prospect who will be quickest to the majors.

Instead of bemoaning an underwhelming top of the draft, I choose to embrace the chaos and razor-thin margins separating these players, especially once you get into the teens and twenties, where scouts think the draft is quite deep. There are going to be some stars from this draft, even if it isn't obvious who they are right now.

So, as we get deep into conference play for colleges and the season is either winding down in the south or getting going up north at the high school level, here is how I and the scouts I've been speaking with line up the 2025 draft class right now.

These players were ranked using the FV (future value) system that I applied for pro prospects. Here are my preseason MLB prospect rankings to see where these players would rank if they turned pro now, though the grades will change (and generally improve as we gain more information and certainty) throughout the spring.

50 FV tier
1. Jamie Arnold (21.2), LHP, Florida State

Arnold isn't the slam-dunk top player on every board, but he's probably the easiest player to take in this draft with the most universal support. He's a high-probability, quick-moving big league starter -- and that is always in demand. As a prospect at draft time, he fits for me between Chase Burns (No. 2 pick to the Reds) and Hagen Smith (No. 5 to the White Sox) from last year's draft, but some teams have him over Burns. Arnold's above-average to plus stuff and low release height is especially appealing to analytical types.

45+ FV tier
2. Eli Willits (17.6), SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK), Oklahoma commit
3. Billy Carlson (19.0), SS, Corona HS (CA), Tennessee commit
4. Ethan Holliday (18.3), 3B, Stillwater HS (OK), Oklahoma State commit
5. Aiva Arquette (21.7), SS, Oregon State
6. Kyson Witherspoon (20.9), RHP, Oklahoma
7. Seth Hernandez (19.0), RHP, Corona HS (CA), Vanderbilt commit
8. Gavin Fien (18.2), 3B, Great Oak HS (CA), Texas commit

The three players at the top of this tier are where all of the intrigue is when I talk to scouts at the ballpark. Every team has their own take on the order for Willits, Carlson and Holliday, but the three prep position players are widely seen as the only other viable options at the No. 1 pick. Teams really want to pick accomplished, toolsy prep position players at the top of the draft, and none of these three are perfect, as you'd assume from this ranking and FV grade, but they all appeal to slightly different teams and I think all will become 50 FV players at some point in the next year. I saw Carlson last week and will see Willits play against Holliday in a few days, so my opinion on how to line them up is still forming.

Willits is the easiest to draft as he lights up draft models by being the youngest player on this entire list (a fantastic historical indicator) along with being a clear shortstop with a standout bat, strong hitting performances and big league family (father Reggie played parts of six seasons for the Los Angeles Angels). He isn't the biggest player and doesn't have the most power of this group, but he is sneaky solid in both categories, and we've seen power emerge later in careers for players like this.

Carlson has real similarities to Bobby Witt Jr. (who went No. 2 overall in the 2019 draft) as a dynamic performer in athletic testing with above-average tools across the board. Some scouts think Carlson's swing is in need of a real adjustment and he is the oldest of this group, which has historically been a negative -- particularly for prep position players. In comparison to Konnor Griffin (the ninth pick last year), Carlson's swing needs much less work, his overall toolset is similar, and he's a much better shortstop defender.

Holliday is the worst athlete, runner and defender of the three prep stars, but he's athletic in the batter's box and has the most power of this group with 30-homer potential from the left side. Holliday also was the worst summer performer of the group but has made some swing adjustments this spring that some teams see as addressing that concern. Teams regularly mention that they think Holliday can make whatever adjustments are needed because his father Matt (the former big league outfielder) is still especially good at coaching that sort of thing, and the family history with him and brother Jackson helps scouts feel at ease rounding up on what they're seeing.

From my conversations, analytically focused teams tend to prefer Willits and eyeball-scouting-oriented teams tend to prefer Holliday -- but it isn't as black and white as one camp vs. the other because the relative lack of information on high school players allows teams to fill in the gaps in a number of ways.

Hernandez, Carlson's teammate on a loaded Corona High School squad, had a dominating performance this week in front of hundreds of evaluators at USA Baseball's NHSI tournament in North Carolina. There is plenty to like: He sat in the 95-98 mph range and hit 99 mph in the seventh inning, his curveball is now average to above average, his changeup is a 70-grade pitch, and he'd also be a potential Day 1 pick as a third baseman. There is some buzz he could be in play to go No. 1 overall, but the demographic of hard-throwing prep righties at the top of the draft is so fraught that he's believed to be more realistically in play at other spots in the top 10. That said, that is the range where teams have drafted prep aces such as Hunter Greene, Clayton Kershaw, Max Fried, Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler, which is a good reason to keep coming back for more.

45 FV tier
9. Marek Houston (21.2), SS, Wake Forest
10. Wehiwa Aloy (21.4), SS, Arkansas
11. Kade Anderson (21.0), LHP, LSU
12. Liam Doyle (21.0), LHP, Tennessee
13. Steele Hall (17.9), SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL), Tennessee commit
14. Josh Hammond (18., 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC), Wake Forest commit
15. Kayson Cunningham (19.0), SS, Johnson HS (TX), Texas commit
16. JoJo Parker (18., SS, Purvis HS (MS), Mississippi State commit
17. Daniel Pierce (18.9), SS, Mill Creek HS (GA), Georgia commit
18. Jace LaViolette (21.6), RF, Texas A&M
19. Xavier Neyens (18.7), 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA), Oregon State commit
20. Gavin Kilen (21.2), 2B, Tennessee
21. Zach Root (21.4), LHP, Arkansas
22. Tyler Bremner (21.2), RHP, UC Santa Barbara
23. Cam Appenzeller (18.5), LHP, Glenwood HS (IL), Tennessee commit
24. Alex Lodise (21.4), SS, Florida State
25. Brendan Summerhill (21.7), CF, Arizona
26. Marcus Phillips (21.0), RHP, Tennessee
27. Slater de Brun (18.1), CF, Summit HS (OR), Vanderbilt commit
28. Ethan Conrad (21.0), RF, Wake Forest
29. Luke Stevenson (21.0), C, North Carolina
30. Jordan Yost (18.5), SS, Sickles HS (FL), Florida commit
31. Sean Gamble (18.9), 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit
32. Tate Southisene (18., SS, Basic HS (NV), USC commit
33. Charles Davalan (21.6), CF, Arkansas
34. Aaron Watson (18.5), RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL), Virginia commit
35. Mason Neville (21.5), CF, Oregon
36. Dean Curley (21.1), SS, Tennessee
37. Matthew Fisher (19.3), RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN), Indiana commit

You're probably wondering how LaViolette ended up in the middle of this tier, less than three months after opening the season No. 1 in our initial rankings. He started the season slow -- 6-for-28 with 14 strikeouts against middling competition -- and his swing was too uphill, but has righted the ship now, with an OPS of 1.062 in conference play. Scouts are hesitant about his long levers at 6-foot-6 and aren't convinced he will be able to avoid streakiness like this. He won't have much margin for error in pro ball as a power-over-hit corner outfielder. Opinions still vary from team to team, but this represents where the industry has him as a whole.

This is obviously a deep and diverse group of players, and the tiering system lets you know there isn't a huge difference from the top to the bottom here. Houston and Aloy are slam-dunk shortstops with some level of college performance, so they might sneak up a tier by draft time and should definitely go in the top dozen or so picks.

As with the previous tier, sorting out the prep position players is key because that's likely where the stars will come from in this draft. Steele Hall reminds me of Jett Williams and Anthony Volpe, but others have mentioned Trea Turner -- which is also a common name to come up when talking about Daniel Pierce.

Josh Hammond is a spitting image of Josh Donaldson and was seen more as a pitcher until this spring, a strikingly similar narrative to Austin Riley before the Braves drafted him. Parker is a late riser, and Neyens has all of the fun upside but also the bat-to-ball concerns of Joey Gallo. Slater de Brun, a short but toolsy center fielder from the Pacific Northwest, gets obvious Corbin Carroll mentions.

40+ FV tier
38. Cam Cannarella (21., CF, Clemson
39. Ike Irish (21.6), C, Auburn
40. Patrick Forbes (20.9), RHP, Louisville
41. Caden Bodine (21.6), C, Coastal Carolina
42. Jaden Fauske (18.7), RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL), LSU commit
43. Jack Bauer (18.5), LHP, Lincoln Way East HS (IL), Virginia commit
44. Nick Becker (18.6), SS, Don Bosco HS (NJ), Virginia commit
45. Riley Quick (21.1), RHP, Alabama
46. Max Belyeu (21.5), RF, Texas
47. Landon Harmon (18., RHP, East Union HS (MS), Mississippi State commit

I saw Bauer hit 102 mph a few weeks ago (confirmed by TrackMan), among the hardest pitches any high school athlete has ever thrown in a game. And yes, Bauer wears No. 24. His sweeping breaking ball is plus, sometimes plus-plus, but his command is well behind: He walked three batters in 43 pitches the day I saw him, and he got hit around a bit Monday in a rivalry game. Some teams might have him in the 20s on their boards, and others have him lower than this, so there's a real chance he ends up at school if things don't fall just right on draft day.

40 FV tier
48. J.D. Thompson (21., LHP, Vanderbilt
49. R.J. Austin (21.6), CF, Vanderbilt
50. Korbyn Dickerson (21.7), CF, Indiana
51. Kane Kepley (21.3), CF, North Carolina
52. Dax Kilby (18.6), SS, Newnan HS (GA), Clemson commit
53. Andrew Fischer (21.0), 3B, Tennessee
54. Trent Caraway (21.2), 3B, Oregon State
55. Lucas Franco (18.1), SS, Cinco Ranch HS (TX), TCU commit
56. Taitn Gray (17., C, Grimes Community HS (IA), Oregon commit
57. Drew Faurot (21.7), 2B, Florida State
58. Daniel Dickinson (21.5), 2B, LSU
59. Joseph Dzierwa (21.1), LHP, Michigan State
60. Kyle Lodise (21., SS, Georgia Tech
61. J.B. Middleton (21.6), RHP, Southern Miss
62. Kruz Schoolcraft (18.2), LHP, Sunset HS (OR), Tennessee commit
63. Ethan Petry (21.0), 1B, South Carolina
64. Brandon Compton (21.7), LF, Arizona State
65. Jared Spencer (22.0), LHP, Texas

This was already supposed to just be a top 50 that I stretched a bit to get some college performers on here, but this tier goes on for literally another 80-100 players, so if you're mad someone from your school isn't here, they might actually be in the next few slots in my spreadsheet. It's interesting but not surprising in the current game that half of the college players in this tier (Dickerson, Kepley, Fischer, Faurot, Dickinson, Lodise and Spencer) have transferred since they got to college.

[Shady]

Wonder how Carlson's potential, overall, as a MLB shortstop compares to Winn's and Wetherholt's.

[craviduce]

@Cardinalsfever44

Thank you so much for the the copy/paste

McDaniel's analysis is usually pretty good....seems to be line with how Collazo (BA) is seeing the overall draft....Really Weak at the top, and strong in the middle tiers.

[craviduce]

@Cardinalsfever44

Thank you so much for the the copy/paste

McDaniel's analysis is usually pretty good....seems to be line with how Collazo (BA) is seeing the overall draft....Really Weak at the top, and strong in the middle tiers.

makes one wish we could pull off a trade with a team in the Competitive Balance Round A (After the Compensatory Round, before the 2nd Round)

[NYCardsFan]

@Cardinalsfever44

Thank you so much for the the copy/paste

McDaniel's analysis is usually pretty good....seems to be line with how Collazo (BA) is seeing the overall draft....Really Weak at the top, and strong in the middle tiers.

Sounds like this year's NFL draft. As one scout put it, it's a good "starter," not "star" draft.

[craviduce]

@Cardinalsfever44

Thank you so much for the the copy/paste

McDaniel's analysis is usually pretty good....seems to be line with how Collazo (BA) is seeing the overall draft....Really Weak at the top, and strong in the middle tiers.

Sounds like this year's NFL draft. As one scout put it, it's a good "starter," not "star" draft.

setting up to be a pretty wonky draft...I'd say the entire 1st round will be extremely "wonky".... Highschool bats are on the menu it seems. There might be a run on them in the 1st round. That'll push a lot of mid tier bats/arms out of the 1st round...we might benefit in the 2nd

[craviduce]

I don't get the pundits love for Aiva Arquette, but he's really come on strong the last 3 weeks....his wRC+ is now 179...that's top tier, getting up there with the likes of Wetherholt and Kurtz from last season

my problem is that's not quite what he did the first 2 years with Washington....not even close. While he hit for a highly respectable .350 avg last season, his OPS was .300 points lower than this season. He also ONLY produced .790 OPS in the Cape Cod league.

Is this season an outlier? I don't know.

What I do know, is that Kilen, Arquette and the Hawaiian from Arkansas are the best hitters in the Top of the draft....from College.


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Arquette https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aiva- ... osition=IF

Aloy https://www.fangraphs.com/players/wehiw ... osition=IF

Kilen https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gavin ... osition=IF

[craviduce]

I don't get the pundits love for Aiva Arquette, but he's really come on strong the last 3 weeks....his wRC+ is now 179...that's top tier, getting up there with the likes of Wetherholt and Kurtz from last season

my problem is that's not quite what he did the first 2 years with Washington....not even close. While he hit for a highly respectable .350 avg last season, his OPS was .300 points lower than this season. He also ONLY produced .790 OPS in the Cape Cod league.

Is this season an outlier? I don't know.

What I do know, is that Kilen, Arquette and the Hawaiian from Arkansas are the best hitters in the Top of the draft....from College.


-----------------------

Arquette https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aiva- ... osition=IF

Aloy https://www.fangraphs.com/players/wehiw ... osition=IF

Kilen https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gavin ... osition=IF

and for whatever it's worth... Jace LaViolette decided to wake up nearly 3 full months into the season...he's on a bit of a heater the last 2 weeks...and it's against SEC competition, instead D-Team Colleges in Texas

I think his draft stock is too damaged to get back to 1-1, but he could make a legit stab at the top 10 again with a good postseason.....A&M is heating up, they need a GREAT SEC tourney, though

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jace- ... osition=OF