Fans live in a fantasy world

[2ninr]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

No, they didn't. They spent some $$$

Eventually they did.

Yes, they did. Not much in the first year though. I think the new CBA and the outcome of the tv deal will dictate spending in year two. 2028 is when I expect our MLB payroll to surpass $150M-$175M. Not next week, like some in here expect. I hope no ones head explodes while waiting for this process to unfold.

Too late

[Horseradish]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

No, they didn't. They spent some $$$

Houston's payroll was 20th or lower for six straight seasons, Atlanta's was 19th or lower for four straight, and Philadelphia was 18th or lower for three straight.

And all three started winning when they spent $$$.

You’re being intentionally obtuse. Those teams cut payroll to reset their rosters, which is what the cards are now doing.

You don’t spend during a reset/rebuild.

You criticize others for their knowledge but seem completely clueless about how other teams have rebuilt in a similar fashion to what the cards are doing right now.

[Horseradish]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

Isn’t it possible they’re doing both at the same time?

[An Old Friend]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

At this point we don't know where the Cardinals spending will rebound to in ~2030.

If it remains low like during the rebuild, then developing young talent is even more important.

If it rebounds to about 12th in MLB, then they will have the young talent in place to fill in with players they can add with that payroll.

If it rebounds even more than that, all the better.

I expect the second scenario.

But why? Where is the revenue coming from to close the gap?

But any conceivable path involves them doing what they are doing now.

Without a doubt. But they’re doing this because they’re small market now.

[An Old Friend]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

Isn’t it possible they’re doing both at the same time?

I think there is a distinction and that their behavior is specifically that which aligns with a small market model. Their revenue advantage over other small market teams is now gone because their media deal (and their equity with it) went up in smoke. A "rebuild" implies that they'll hit an inflection point where they determine they're ready to move their payroll back into the top 10ish range.

I don't expect that to happen... so I think calling this a rebuild is missing what they're actually doing. It's adjacent, so I get it, but that theory relies on them moving spending back up. Considering their revenue model has markedly changed for the worse, I don't know why one would reasonably expect that ownership will pony up, anyway.

They'd need someone like Mark Cuban to buy them.

[mattmitchl44]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

At this point we don't know where the Cardinals spending will rebound to in ~2030.

If it remains low like during the rebuild, then developing young talent is even more important.

If it rebounds to about 12th in MLB, then they will have the young talent in place to fill in with players they can add with that payroll.

If it rebounds even more than that, all the better.

I expect the second scenario.

But why? Where is the revenue coming from to close the gap?

But any conceivable path involves them doing what they are doing now.

Without a doubt. But they’re doing this because they’re small market now.

IMO - they will be a mid- market team over the long run.

Small market would be more like in the bottom 10 in payroll, IMO

[An Old Friend]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

At this point we don't know where the Cardinals spending will rebound to in ~2030.

If it remains low like during the rebuild, then developing young talent is even more important.

If it rebounds to about 12th in MLB, then they will have the young talent in place to fill in with players they can add with that payroll.

If it rebounds even more than that, all the better.

I expect the second scenario.

But why? Where is the revenue coming from to close the gap?

But any conceivable path involves them doing what they are doing now.

Without a doubt. But they’re doing this because they’re small market now.

IMO - they will be a mid- market team over the long run.

Small market would be more like in the bottom 10 in payroll, IMO

I'm asking you "why" you believe that, though.

They're not mid-market by any measure. But previously they had an advantage over small market teams because their brand value (i.e. media / cable / streaming) was immensely more valuable than it's like-market peers, but now that value has been wiped out. And I expect that the revenue they'll receive going forward will effectively mirror that of other small market teams.

I'm interested to know why you think otherwise. Where is the revenue bump coming from?

[hugeCardfan]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

What? We aren't winning this year? Dam.n you Red; you're sucking all the hopes and dreams right out of my soul.... Can't we just win a few games. Once a week or something? You're no fun.

Couldn't we just get a little excited to see JJ play this year. What about one or two pitching surprises? Can't I watch the farm teams with a little hope. You're no fun at all...you curmudgeon you....

I knew Cranny would stop by and comment . . . LOL!

Did he? Try to stay on track and quitcherdoddering. You've got dreams to squash.

I believe you mean quash.

That would also fit. But, you seem intent on squashing dreams like a bug.

[Absolut]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Who said it’s going to be a good team?

[mattmitchl44]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

At this point we don't know where the Cardinals spending will rebound to in ~2030.

If it remains low like during the rebuild, then developing young talent is even more important.

If it rebounds to about 12th in MLB, then they will have the young talent in place to fill in with players they can add with that payroll.

If it rebounds even more than that, all the better.

I expect the second scenario.

But why? Where is the revenue coming from to close the gap?

But any conceivable path involves them doing what they are doing now.

Without a doubt. But they’re doing this because they’re small market now.

IMO - they will be a mid- market team over the long run.

Small market would be more like in the bottom 10 in payroll, IMO

I'm asking you "why" you believe that, though.

They're not mid-market by any measure. But previously they had an advantage over small market teams because their brand value (i.e. media / cable / streaming) was immensely more valuable than it's like-market peers, but now that value has been wiped out. And I expect that the revenue they'll receive going forward will effectively mirror that of other small market teams.

I'm interested to know why you think otherwise. Where is the revenue bump coming from?

The Cardinals didn't just become a mid-market team because of the recent media deal. They've always been in the upper mid-market range for the last three decades.

I expect they will get their local media rights sorted and get back to having 3.3, 3.4 million in attendance and be able to get back to the range of 12 to 15 in payroll.

I think their attendance advantage keeps them out of small market range.

[An Old Friend]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

At this point we don't know where the Cardinals spending will rebound to in ~2030.

If it remains low like during the rebuild, then developing young talent is even more important.

If it rebounds to about 12th in MLB, then they will have the young talent in place to fill in with players they can add with that payroll.

If it rebounds even more than that, all the better.

I expect the second scenario.

But why? Where is the revenue coming from to close the gap?

But any conceivable path involves them doing what they are doing now.

Without a doubt. But they’re doing this because they’re small market now.

IMO - they will be a mid- market team over the long run.

Small market would be more like in the bottom 10 in payroll, IMO

I'm asking you "why" you believe that, though.

They're not mid-market by any measure. But previously they had an advantage over small market teams because their brand value (i.e. media / cable / streaming) was immensely more valuable than it's like-market peers, but now that value has been wiped out. And I expect that the revenue they'll receive going forward will effectively mirror that of other small market teams.

I'm interested to know why you think otherwise. Where is the revenue bump coming from?

The Cardinals didn't just become a mid-market team because of the recent media deal. They've always been in the upper mid-market range for the last three decades.

Sure... but cities change. Cleveland was once that, too.

St. Louis is a declining city overall. The metro area population is stagnant or in slight decline.

Their ability behave like a middle market team was reliant on their gate / attendance strength, and then buoyed over the last decade or so by their overall brand value (i.e. viewership ratings). Attendance has dropped and their media value has evaporated (along with their own slug of equity).

So what attributes do you see that KEEP them anywhere near the 'upper mid-market' range?

I expect they will get their local media rights sorted and get back to having 3.3, 3.4 million in attendance and be able to get back to the range of 12 to 15 in payroll.

I think their attendance advantage keeps them out of small market range.

Their local media rights aren't worth nearly as much as they used to be. And they've lost a lot of their national fanbase that they used to be able to count on.

I'm not as bullish on their attendance bumping back up. There could be flashes, but I don't expect 3 million+ to come back if the Cardinals don't have star power. The Indians once had 455 consecutive home sellouts.

[mattmitchl44]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

At this point we don't know where the Cardinals spending will rebound to in ~2030.

If it remains low like during the rebuild, then developing young talent is even more important.

If it rebounds to about 12th in MLB, then they will have the young talent in place to fill in with players they can add with that payroll.

If it rebounds even more than that, all the better.

I expect the second scenario.

But why? Where is the revenue coming from to close the gap?

But any conceivable path involves them doing what they are doing now.

Without a doubt. But they’re doing this because they’re small market now.

IMO - they will be a mid- market team over the long run.

Small market would be more like in the bottom 10 in payroll, IMO

I'm asking you "why" you believe that, though.

They're not mid-market by any measure. But previously they had an advantage over small market teams because their brand value (i.e. media / cable / streaming) was immensely more valuable than it's like-market peers, but now that value has been wiped out. And I expect that the revenue they'll receive going forward will effectively mirror that of other small market teams.

I'm interested to know why you think otherwise. Where is the revenue bump coming from?

The Cardinals didn't just become a mid-market team because of the recent media deal. They've always been in the upper mid-market range for the last three decades.

Sure... but cities change. Cleveland was once that, too.

St. Louis is a declining city overall. The metro area population is stagnant or in slight decline.

Their ability behave like a middle market team was reliant on their gate / attendance strength, and then buoyed over the last decade or so by their overall brand value (i.e. viewership ratings). Attendance has dropped and their media value has evaporated (along with their own slug of equity).

So what attributes do you see that KEEP them anywhere near the 'upper mid-market' range?

I expect they will get their local media rights sorted and get back to having 3.3, 3.4 million in attendance and be able to get back to the range of 12 to 15 in payroll.

I think their attendance advantage keeps them out of small market range.

Their local media rights aren't worth nearly as much as they used to be. And they've lost a lot of their national fanbase that they used to be able to count on.

I'm not as bullish on their attendance bumping back up. There could be flashes, but I don't expect 3 million+ to come back if the Cardinals don't have star power. The Indians once had 455 consecutive home sellouts.

You can be as pessimistic as you like.

From 1998 to 2023, the Cardinals drew 3+ million every year except for the 2020-2021 COVID seasons and 2003. In total, over 3+ million 25 times.

How many "small market" teams did that?

Cleveland has drawn 3+ million only six times, Milwaukee only three times, Baltimore only nine times, KC never, Minnesota only three times, Cincinnati never, Detroit only four times.

The Cardinals have drawn 3+ million as many times as Cleveland, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Detroit COMBINED.

When the Cardinals are good enough again to regularly win 90+ games a year, they'll draw 3+ million.

[Carp4Cy]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

Isn’t it possible they’re doing both at the same time?

I think there is a distinction and that their behavior is specifically that which aligns with a small market model. Their revenue advantage over other small market teams is now gone because their media deal (and their equity with it) went up in smoke. A "rebuild" implies that they'll hit an inflection point where they determine they're ready to move their payroll back into the top 10ish range.

I don't expect that to happen... so I think calling this a rebuild is missing what they're actually doing. It's adjacent, so I get it, but that theory relies on them moving spending back up. Considering their revenue model has markedly changed for the worse, I don't know why one would reasonably expect that ownership will pony up, anyway.

They'd need someone like Mark Cuban to buy them.

That last line - came here to say the same thing. Whether we technically should be a small market team or not, BDW seems to be operating scared and acting like its one. Which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy when the owner lacks vision. We need an agressive and creative owner who can restore the upper mid-market aura, thru wise spending, marketing, TV deals, hiring the right popular talent, including the manager who is the face of the team right now, and gets the most interview time after every game.

The fact that Oli is still here, and his coaching staff is still here, and Gorman is still here, and Fernandez and several other retreads, and the fact that no one really knows how long this rebuild is going to take or when it might start to work has turned a lot of fans off, at least for now, and BDW isn't doing much to create excitement (even raising ticket prices when demand is falling) or allay uncertainly over his willingness to actually invest at top 10/11 levels in the future.

[An Old Friend]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

At this point we don't know where the Cardinals spending will rebound to in ~2030.

If it remains low like during the rebuild, then developing young talent is even more important.

If it rebounds to about 12th in MLB, then they will have the young talent in place to fill in with players they can add with that payroll.

If it rebounds even more than that, all the better.

I expect the second scenario.

But why? Where is the revenue coming from to close the gap?

But any conceivable path involves them doing what they are doing now.

Without a doubt. But they’re doing this because they’re small market now.

IMO - they will be a mid- market team over the long run.

Small market would be more like in the bottom 10 in payroll, IMO

I'm asking you "why" you believe that, though.

They're not mid-market by any measure. But previously they had an advantage over small market teams because their brand value (i.e. media / cable / streaming) was immensely more valuable than it's like-market peers, but now that value has been wiped out. And I expect that the revenue they'll receive going forward will effectively mirror that of other small market teams.

I'm interested to know why you think otherwise. Where is the revenue bump coming from?

The Cardinals didn't just become a mid-market team because of the recent media deal. They've always been in the upper mid-market range for the last three decades.

Sure... but cities change. Cleveland was once that, too.

St. Louis is a declining city overall. The metro area population is stagnant or in slight decline.

Their ability behave like a middle market team was reliant on their gate / attendance strength, and then buoyed over the last decade or so by their overall brand value (i.e. viewership ratings). Attendance has dropped and their media value has evaporated (along with their own slug of equity).

So what attributes do you see that KEEP them anywhere near the 'upper mid-market' range?

I expect they will get their local media rights sorted and get back to having 3.3, 3.4 million in attendance and be able to get back to the range of 12 to 15 in payroll.

I think their attendance advantage keeps them out of small market range.

Their local media rights aren't worth nearly as much as they used to be. And they've lost a lot of their national fanbase that they used to be able to count on.

I'm not as bullish on their attendance bumping back up. There could be flashes, but I don't expect 3 million+ to come back if the Cardinals don't have star power. The Indians once had 455 consecutive home sellouts.

You can be as pessimistic as you like.

From 1998 to 2023, the Cardinals drew 3+ million every year except for the 2020-2021 COVID seasons and 2003. In total, over 3+ million 25 times.

How many "small market" teams did that?

Cleveland has drawn 3+ million only six times, Milwaukee only three times, Baltimore only nine times, KC never, Minnesota only three times, Cincinnati never, Detroit only four times.

The Cardinals have drawn 3+ million as many times as Cleveland, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Detroit COMBINED.

When the Cardinals are good enough again to regularly win 90+ games a year, they'll draw 3+ million.

How many organizations are regularly winning 90+ games per year? How about that don't have a top-10 payroll?

Ownership has already shown that they're not spending. They're afraid to, and even said that they'll require attendance to get there. They have it backwards.

[mattmitchl44]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Houston, Atlanta and Philadelphia have all gone down a similar path and been successful on the other side.

3 large markets. St. Louis isn't that.

Cardinals aren't rebuilding. They're resetting to a small market model.

At this point we don't know where the Cardinals spending will rebound to in ~2030.

If it remains low like during the rebuild, then developing young talent is even more important.

If it rebounds to about 12th in MLB, then they will have the young talent in place to fill in with players they can add with that payroll.

If it rebounds even more than that, all the better.

I expect the second scenario.

But why? Where is the revenue coming from to close the gap?

But any conceivable path involves them doing what they are doing now.

Without a doubt. But they’re doing this because they’re small market now.

IMO - they will be a mid- market team over the long run.

Small market would be more like in the bottom 10 in payroll, IMO

I'm asking you "why" you believe that, though.

They're not mid-market by any measure. But previously they had an advantage over small market teams because their brand value (i.e. media / cable / streaming) was immensely more valuable than it's like-market peers, but now that value has been wiped out. And I expect that the revenue they'll receive going forward will effectively mirror that of other small market teams.

I'm interested to know why you think otherwise. Where is the revenue bump coming from?

The Cardinals didn't just become a mid-market team because of the recent media deal. They've always been in the upper mid-market range for the last three decades.

Sure... but cities change. Cleveland was once that, too.

St. Louis is a declining city overall. The metro area population is stagnant or in slight decline.

Their ability behave like a middle market team was reliant on their gate / attendance strength, and then buoyed over the last decade or so by their overall brand value (i.e. viewership ratings). Attendance has dropped and their media value has evaporated (along with their own slug of equity).

So what attributes do you see that KEEP them anywhere near the 'upper mid-market' range?

I expect they will get their local media rights sorted and get back to having 3.3, 3.4 million in attendance and be able to get back to the range of 12 to 15 in payroll.

I think their attendance advantage keeps them out of small market range.

Their local media rights aren't worth nearly as much as they used to be. And they've lost a lot of their national fanbase that they used to be able to count on.

I'm not as bullish on their attendance bumping back up. There could be flashes, but I don't expect 3 million+ to come back if the Cardinals don't have star power. The Indians once had 455 consecutive home sellouts.

You can be as pessimistic as you like.

From 1998 to 2023, the Cardinals drew 3+ million every year except for the 2020-2021 COVID seasons and 2003. In total, over 3+ million 25 times.

How many "small market" teams did that?

Cleveland has drawn 3+ million only six times, Milwaukee only three times, Baltimore only nine times, KC never, Minnesota only three times, Cincinnati never, Detroit only four times.

The Cardinals have drawn 3+ million as many times as Cleveland, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Detroit COMBINED.

When the Cardinals are good enough again to regularly win 90+ games a year, they'll draw 3+ million.

How many organizations are regularly winning 90+ games per year? How about that don't have a top-10 payroll?

Ownership has already shown that they're not spending. They're afraid to, and even said that they'll require attendance to get there. They have it backwards.

In the last five years, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay have averaged 89+ wins a year. Why not the Cardinals?

We'll have to wait and see how they exit this rebuild once they have reestablished a critical mass of young players.

As I've said before, if they are "saving" any money in these rebuilding years, they should be ready to advance spend by one season to start adding from outside the organization before attendance fully bounces back.

But no need to worry about that until they get there.

I can believe that the Cardinals may go from being 9th to 11th in ML payroll to more like 12th to 15th going forward, from "upper mid-market" to "mid-market," but I don't believe they are going to be a "small market" team.

[Stlcardsblues]

I'm shocked by the lack of knowledge some post. This will not be a good team. This was strictly a salary dump. If not, other teams would also be doing what the Cardinals are calling a re-build.

I'm not buying in the so-called re-build, and I imagine by ticket sales others are not also.

Most know this won’t be a good team. I don’t fully buy into the theory that this is a full salary dump with no vision to be stronger on the other side of it (2028 and beyond).

Curious why others think this will stay like it currently is long term (say 2028 and 2029 not 2027). I would also question why people wanted to keep the status quo that they ran under over a new direction after seeing the last five plus years of being stuck in mediocrity.