Predict the most surprising trade Bloom makes this offseason

[Dicktar2023]

Surprising would be any trade including Winn or Herrera. Both of those guys are young enough they can be core players and can improve.

Three years ago, I would have been salivating over getting Austin Riley as some suggested on this thread. Players that suffer injuries like he has the last two years may recover, they may not. Given the money he is owed, no way this ownership takes on that contract.

I expect Gray to be traded. Teams need pitching, even if he is not an ace. Arenado is 50/50 in my view. He is bad enough now, I am not certain any team really wants him without salary relief that will be unpalatable to owners.

I expect one of Pages or Crooks to be traded. I expect two of Gorman, Saggese, Fermin and Donovan to be traded. I expect 1 of Church or Scott to be traded. I expect Hence to be traded. I think Walker is 50/50. If all that happens, that is a lot of roster reshaping, which will likely involve prospects in return. 2026 should give us a reasonable idea of how well Bloom did. If it looks good, people will still complain, but there will be hope. If it looks bad, the Bloom honeymoon will be short...

Gray will be an interesting case. This is a guy who would be happy to waive his NTC, he has a big contract, decent trade value...there is zero reason a rebuilding team should want to keep him.

And when he isn't traded, what will that tell us?

If the right team is found , he would be traded as DeWitt's have indicated (to Bloom) that they are ready to 'eat more $$$ on the NTC guys in order to get them traded and Bloom has told them that the more $$ they eat, the better return he can get for a Sonny Gray . Last go round, Mo didn't wish to eat much on the contracts. That backfired and Cards could not trade any of the big boys . DeWitts now understand with Bloom what it will take to get rid of the high priced guys and get something in return.

It's BDW who doesn't want to eat contracts. We'll see if anything has really changed since last winter. I suspect it hasn't.

[JohnnyMO]

I don’t see any bug surprises. I think he’ll add a top 50 prospect type, but that wouldn’t shock anyone. I guess I’d be shocked if he got a top 15 prospect back.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

I don’t see any bug surprises. I think he’ll add a top 50 prospect type, but that wouldn’t shock anyone. I guess I’d be shocked if he got a top 15 prospect back.

I think he does bring back either a top 20 pitcher and/or OF prospect by dealing Donovan and/or Walker. And I hope he does. Next year is another rebuild and Donovan is a FA in 2028. Look I like Donovan and he is a valuable complimentary player in a playoff team. He is not the kind of player that can lift a team into the playoffs. To a team looking to upgrade at 2B or 3B and hit him leadoff or 7-9 for a really deep team he is valuable. For a rebuild team like STL not so much.

Donovan should return something in the top 20 ranked prospects. Walker as an added piece would assure a top 20 AND a top 100 addition.

Yeah I know I'm giving up on and selling low on Walker. He has over 1000 ABs and has regressed 2 straight years. I do not believe he has the talent to be a starting caliber OFer in the majors. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe another team will unlock something but I'm happy to move on.

[ICCFIM2]

Surprising would be any trade including Winn or Herrera. Both of those guys are young enough they can be core players and can improve.

Three years ago, I would have been salivating over getting Austin Riley as some suggested on this thread. Players that suffer injuries like he has the last two years may recover, they may not. Given the money he is owed, no way this ownership takes on that contract.

I expect Gray to be traded. Teams need pitching, even if he is not an ace. Arenado is 50/50 in my view. He is bad enough now, I am not certain any team really wants him without salary relief that will be unpalatable to owners.

I expect one of Pages or Crooks to be traded. I expect two of Gorman, Saggese, Fermin and Donovan to be traded. I expect 1 of Church or Scott to be traded. I expect Hence to be traded. I think Walker is 50/50. If all that happens, that is a lot of roster reshaping, which will likely involve prospects in return. 2026 should give us a reasonable idea of how well Bloom did. If it looks good, people will still complain, but there will be hope. If it looks bad, the Bloom honeymoon will be short...

Gray will be an interesting case. This is a guy who would be happy to waive his NTC, he has a big contract, decent trade value...there is zero reason a rebuilding team should want to keep him.

And when he isn't traded, what will that tell us?

If the right team is found , he would be traded as DeWitt's have indicated (to Bloom) that they are ready to 'eat more $$$ on the NTC guys in order to get them traded and Bloom has told them that the more $$ they eat, the better return he can get for a Sonny Gray . Last go round, Mo didn't wish to eat much on the contracts. That backfired and Cards could not trade any of the big boys . DeWitts now understand with Bloom what it will take to get rid of the high priced guys and get something in return.

It's BDW who doesn't want to eat contracts. We'll see if anything has really changed since last winter. I suspect it hasn't.

Trading one of or both of Arenado and Gray is complicated. Last season MO had pulled off the Arenado trade until Arenado nixed it. Since then, Arenado tanked his value even more. With Gray's option, the Cards owe Gray $40M total, $35M in 26 plus $5M in 27. They owe Arenado $25M in 26 and $15M in 27 for a total of $40M. 101.1 has been suggesting the Cards have to eat at least 50% and probably more on each contract to move them. I am guessing BDW doesn't want to eat more than $15M each. I think Sonny will be easier to move eating $15M than Arenado. That was the only basis of my comment that I expect Gray to be traded and Arenado is 50/50.

I doubt much is different with the Dewitt's other than they want to put the MO era and the baggage behind them. Probably they won't eat $50M to do that, but maybe they will surprise us.

[Dicktar2023]

Surprising would be any trade including Winn or Herrera. Both of those guys are young enough they can be core players and can improve.

Three years ago, I would have been salivating over getting Austin Riley as some suggested on this thread. Players that suffer injuries like he has the last two years may recover, they may not. Given the money he is owed, no way this ownership takes on that contract.

I expect Gray to be traded. Teams need pitching, even if he is not an ace. Arenado is 50/50 in my view. He is bad enough now, I am not certain any team really wants him without salary relief that will be unpalatable to owners.

I expect one of Pages or Crooks to be traded. I expect two of Gorman, Saggese, Fermin and Donovan to be traded. I expect 1 of Church or Scott to be traded. I expect Hence to be traded. I think Walker is 50/50. If all that happens, that is a lot of roster reshaping, which will likely involve prospects in return. 2026 should give us a reasonable idea of how well Bloom did. If it looks good, people will still complain, but there will be hope. If it looks bad, the Bloom honeymoon will be short...

Gray will be an interesting case. This is a guy who would be happy to waive his NTC, he has a big contract, decent trade value...there is zero reason a rebuilding team should want to keep him.

And when he isn't traded, what will that tell us?

If the right team is found , he would be traded as DeWitt's have indicated (to Bloom) that they are ready to 'eat more $$$ on the NTC guys in order to get them traded and Bloom has told them that the more $$ they eat, the better return he can get for a Sonny Gray . Last go round, Mo didn't wish to eat much on the contracts. That backfired and Cards could not trade any of the big boys . DeWitts now understand with Bloom what it will take to get rid of the high priced guys and get something in return.

It's BDW who doesn't want to eat contracts. We'll see if anything has really changed since last winter. I suspect it hasn't.

Trading one of or both of Arenado and Gray is complicated. Last season MO had pulled off the Arenado trade until Arenado nixed it. Since then, Arenado tanked his value even more. With Gray's option, the Cards owe Gray $40M total, $35M in 26 plus $5M in 27. They owe Arenado $25M in 26 and $15M in 27 for a total of $40M. 101.1 has been suggesting the Cards have to eat at least 50% and probably more on each contract to move them. I am guessing BDW doesn't want to eat more than $15M each. I think Sonny will be easier to move eating $15M than Arenado. That was the only basis of my comment that I expect Gray to be traded and Arenado is 50/50.

I doubt much is different with the Dewitt's other than they want to put the MO era and the baggage behind them. Probably they won't eat $50M to do that, but maybe they will surprise us.

'Putting the Mo era behind them' is clearly NOT the plan. The plan is to talk about change, but stay the course.

So, yes, NA and Gray probably aren't going anywhere.

[sikeston bulldog2]

The question was most surprising. Trading Winn would be most shocking. Can that count.

[renostl]

If you had to pick one trade this winter by Bloom that will surprise most MLB observers, what might that be ?

A deal that MLB TV analyst/ insiders (Heyman, Olney, etc.)
may call a ‘blockbuster’ deal

The most surprising might well be Gray.
He is owed so much money, and the team is so vacant with pitching as
of today.

The blockbuster criteria is a bit different. Any name going either direction would get that title.

Winn, Herrera, WC, BD, NA, Gray would do that from the Cards side. But
of that group only being able to move Gray surprises.

How about Donovan+ for Cantillo or Bibee?

That’s not how Cleveland operates.

My position has been and remains that Bloom could move Winn for pitching and slot Wetherholt at SS

They usually don't.
Donovan isn't ideal for them either but that lineup could use him and the plus would need to be good..

It does play to both teams needs

[Bomber1]

Surprising would be any trade including Winn or Herrera. Both of those guys are young enough they can be core players and can improve.

Three years ago, I would have been salivating over getting Austin Riley as some suggested on this thread. Players that suffer injuries like he has the last two years may recover, they may not. Given the money he is owed, no way this ownership takes on that contract.

I expect Gray to be traded. Teams need pitching, even if he is not an ace. Arenado is 50/50 in my view. He is bad enough now, I am not certain any team really wants him without salary relief that will be unpalatable to owners.

I expect one of Pages or Crooks to be traded. I expect two of Gorman, Saggese, Fermin and Donovan to be traded. I expect 1 of Church or Scott to be traded. I expect Hence to be traded. I think Walker is 50/50. If all that happens, that is a lot of roster reshaping, which will likely involve prospects in return. 2026 should give us a reasonable idea of how well Bloom did. If it looks good, people will still complain, but there will be hope. If it looks bad, the Bloom honeymoon will be short...

Just my opinion, the only major problem with your take is that it means Nootbaar is back.

He needs to be gone yesterday.

Otherwise I agree.

[Bomber1]

The biggest "surprise" this off-season will be that Arenado isn't going anywhere. So Gorman will be traded for a pitching prospect who will never be heard from again.

I’d rather they do that than have to hear from Gorman all year.

[ramfandan]

Surprising would be any trade including Winn or Herrera. Both of those guys are young enough they can be core players and can improve.

Three years ago, I would have been salivating over getting Austin Riley as some suggested on this thread. Players that suffer injuries like he has the last two years may recover, they may not. Given the money he is owed, no way this ownership takes on that contract.

I expect Gray to be traded. Teams need pitching, even if he is not an ace. Arenado is 50/50 in my view. He is bad enough now, I am not certain any team really wants him without salary relief that will be unpalatable to owners.

I expect one of Pages or Crooks to be traded. I expect two of Gorman, Saggese, Fermin and Donovan to be traded. I expect 1 of Church or Scott to be traded. I expect Hence to be traded. I think Walker is 50/50. If all that happens, that is a lot of roster reshaping, which will likely involve prospects in return. 2026 should give us a reasonable idea of how well Bloom did. If it looks good, people will still complain, but there will be hope. If it looks bad, the Bloom honeymoon will be short...

Gray will be an interesting case. This is a guy who would be happy to waive his NTC, he has a big contract, decent trade value...there is zero reason a rebuilding team should want to keep him.

And when he isn't traded, what will that tell us?

If the right team is found , he would be traded as DeWitt's have indicated (to Bloom) that they are ready to 'eat more $$$ on the NTC guys in order to get them traded and Bloom has told them that the more $$ they eat, the better return he can get for a Sonny Gray . Last go round, Mo didn't wish to eat much on the contracts. That backfired and Cards could not trade any of the big boys . DeWitts now understand with Bloom what it will take to get rid of the high priced guys and get something in return.

It's BDW who doesn't want to eat contracts. We'll see if anything has really changed since last winter. I suspect it hasn't.

Trading one of or both of Arenado and Gray is complicated. Last season MO had pulled off the Arenado trade until Arenado nixed it. Since then, Arenado tanked his value even more. With Gray's option, the Cards owe Gray $40M total, $35M in 26 plus $5M in 27. They owe Arenado $25M in 26 and $15M in 27 for a total of $40M. 101.1 has been suggesting the Cards have to eat at least 50% and probably more on each contract to move them. I am guessing BDW doesn't want to eat more than $15M each. I think Sonny will be easier to move eating $15M than Arenado. That was the only basis of my comment that I expect Gray to be traded and Arenado is 50/50.

I doubt much is different with the Dewitt's other than they want to put the MO era and the baggage behind them. Probably they won't eat $50M to do that, but maybe they will surprise us.

From all indications, the DeWitts have signaled to Bloom that they will eat a lot more money to deal the vets away . For 1) I am sure Bloom has convinced them that is the only way Gray and Arenado can be traded ( they saw what happened last year ) and 2) Bloom has probably convinced them that the more $$ that are eaten, the better prospect he can get in return. So its the best route to go . Gray especially will have suitors if the trading team doesn't have to pay a big salary for him. Gray is a solid starter in MLB terms. Several teams would want him. Just get his price tag down.

[RunSup]

Will it be a surprise if we name it here?

Nado for anything
WC for a SP prospect
Gray for SP prospect
Burleson for a SP prospect
Donovan for a SP prospect
Herrera for a SP prospect
Noot for a SP prospect
Gorman for a SP prospect
Walker for a SP prospect
Scott for...

Or any combination of the above.

[RunSup]

The most surprising move would be for Bloom to sign Kyle(s) Tucker or Schwarber. Or any high profile FA. Nobody sees that coming

[ramfandan]

The most surprising move would be for Bloom to sign Kyle(s) Tucker or Schwarber. Or any high profile FA. Nobody sees that coming

While signing free agents does not apply to the OP question, the ‘move’ as you described it would certainly surprise many CT posters.

[ICCFIM2]

Surprising would be any trade including Winn or Herrera. Both of those guys are young enough they can be core players and can improve.

Three years ago, I would have been salivating over getting Austin Riley as some suggested on this thread. Players that suffer injuries like he has the last two years may recover, they may not. Given the money he is owed, no way this ownership takes on that contract.

I expect Gray to be traded. Teams need pitching, even if he is not an ace. Arenado is 50/50 in my view. He is bad enough now, I am not certain any team really wants him without salary relief that will be unpalatable to owners.

I expect one of Pages or Crooks to be traded. I expect two of Gorman, Saggese, Fermin and Donovan to be traded. I expect 1 of Church or Scott to be traded. I expect Hence to be traded. I think Walker is 50/50. If all that happens, that is a lot of roster reshaping, which will likely involve prospects in return. 2026 should give us a reasonable idea of how well Bloom did. If it looks good, people will still complain, but there will be hope. If it looks bad, the Bloom honeymoon will be short...

Just my opinion, the only major problem with your take is that it means Nootbaar is back.

He needs to be gone yesterday.

Otherwise I agree.

I forgot to include Nootbar. I agree, I expect him to be traded.

[ICCFIM2]

Surprising would be any trade including Winn or Herrera. Both of those guys are young enough they can be core players and can improve.

Three years ago, I would have been salivating over getting Austin Riley as some suggested on this thread. Players that suffer injuries like he has the last two years may recover, they may not. Given the money he is owed, no way this ownership takes on that contract.

I expect Gray to be traded. Teams need pitching, even if he is not an ace. Arenado is 50/50 in my view. He is bad enough now, I am not certain any team really wants him without salary relief that will be unpalatable to owners.

I expect one of Pages or Crooks to be traded. I expect two of Gorman, Saggese, Fermin and Donovan to be traded. I expect 1 of Church or Scott to be traded. I expect Hence to be traded. I think Walker is 50/50. If all that happens, that is a lot of roster reshaping, which will likely involve prospects in return. 2026 should give us a reasonable idea of how well Bloom did. If it looks good, people will still complain, but there will be hope. If it looks bad, the Bloom honeymoon will be short...

Gray will be an interesting case. This is a guy who would be happy to waive his NTC, he has a big contract, decent trade value...there is zero reason a rebuilding team should want to keep him.

And when he isn't traded, what will that tell us?

If the right team is found , he would be traded as DeWitt's have indicated (to Bloom) that they are ready to 'eat more $$$ on the NTC guys in order to get them traded and Bloom has told them that the more $$ they eat, the better return he can get for a Sonny Gray . Last go round, Mo didn't wish to eat much on the contracts. That backfired and Cards could not trade any of the big boys . DeWitts now understand with Bloom what it will take to get rid of the high priced guys and get something in return.

It's BDW who doesn't want to eat contracts. We'll see if anything has really changed since last winter. I suspect it hasn't.

Trading one of or both of Arenado and Gray is complicated. Last season MO had pulled off the Arenado trade until Arenado nixed it. Since then, Arenado tanked his value even more. With Gray's option, the Cards owe Gray $40M total, $35M in 26 plus $5M in 27. They owe Arenado $25M in 26 and $15M in 27 for a total of $40M. 101.1 has been suggesting the Cards have to eat at least 50% and probably more on each contract to move them. I am guessing BDW doesn't want to eat more than $15M each. I think Sonny will be easier to move eating $15M than Arenado. That was the only basis of my comment that I expect Gray to be traded and Arenado is 50/50.

I doubt much is different with the Dewitt's other than they want to put the MO era and the baggage behind them. Probably they won't eat $50M to do that, but maybe they will surprise us.

From all indications, the DeWitts have signaled to Bloom that they will eat a lot more money to deal the vets away . For 1) I am sure Bloom has convinced them that is the only way Gray and Arenado can be traded ( they saw what happened last year ) and 2) Bloom has probably convinced them that the more $$ that are eaten, the better prospect he can get in return. So its the best route to go . Gray especially will have suitors if the trading team doesn't have to pay a big salary for him. Gray is a solid starter in MLB terms. Several teams would want him. Just get his price tag down.

I have heard those comments as well. I just don't know what it means or how much money. I assume the Card's owners should be happy to eat $20M of the $40M owed to Gray, then go sign a pitcher like Quintana for $6M and get some prospect back that is in the 10-15 range for Gray. They save $14M net. They get a pitcher who should be able to cover 130 innings or so. They also get a borderline prospect in return. I think the deal has to look something like this where they have a clear savings, fix the hole in the ML roster and get something else.

[An Old Friend]

If you had to pick one trade this winter by Bloom that will surprise most MLB observers, what might that be ?

A deal that MLB TV analyst/ insiders (Heyman, Olney, etc.)
may call a ‘blockbuster’ deal

The most surprising might well be Gray.
He is owed so much money, and the team is so vacant with pitching as
of today.

The blockbuster criteria is a bit different. Any name going either direction would get that title.

Winn, Herrera, WC, BD, NA, Gray would do that from the Cards side. But
of that group only being able to move Gray surprises.

How about Donovan+ for Cantillo or Bibee?

That’s not how Cleveland operates.

My position has been and remains that Bloom could move Winn for pitching and slot Wetherholt at SS

They usually don't.
Donovan isn't ideal for them either but that lineup could use him and the plus would need to be good..

It does play to both teams needs

Cleveland needs power. Donovan doesn’t fit that
Cleveland had 4 players on their playoff roster with 3 years of service time or more. Donovan is nearing free agency
Jose Ramirez plays 3B. They have a host of middle infielders to shuttle through 2B and Travis Bazzana will end up there. Donovan doesn’t fit.

I can’t see a single reason Cleveland would be interested in Donovan.