Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

[mattmitchl44]

But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.

BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).

I don't believe "austerity" is a permanent fixture of the Cardinals model. It's a phase they are going through to rebuild and then come out of when they have the foundation in place to compete again.

And their bad deals included extensions for Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc. before they needed to be made. And they also didn't get out from under other deals (Goldschmidt, Arenado) when they should have back in 2023. Those are the mistakes that have done the Cardinals in, not an extension for DeJong, etc.

It certainly is austerity time until the team starts winning division titles or at the very least making the playoffs as I've explained before, St. Louis will NOT support a mediocre or even average team.

BDWJr has ALWAYS tied payroll to attendance, something else we've discussed before.

This is no "phase", it's reality.

Dewitt will only "come out" of this payroll reduction phase WHEN attendance picks up and not before no matter how many contracts come off the books.

I hope I'm 100% wrong matt but a $120M payroll could be the ceiling for some time unless Bloom can perform a miracle and 1) build a great farm system and 2) field a winning team thru smart trades and small FA signings.

But they are also operating differently right now than they ever have. So past correlations may not strictly apply in the future.

As I have pointed out, the plan should be:

1) reduce payroll now, and focus on rebuilding the minor league system/the young talent on the ML roster
2) accept the fact that attendance will drop by 1 - 1.5 million while they are executing (1)
3) once a new critical mass of young talent is on the ML roster, start raising payroll to prior levels and spending again to fill holes and get back to a 90+ win roster
4) attendance picks back up to 3+ million when they start producing 90+ win seasons

So they will likely need to start raising payroll ~1 year in advance of attendance rebounding.

[rockondlouie]

But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.

BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).

I don't believe "austerity" is a permanent fixture of the Cardinals model. It's a phase they are going through to rebuild and then come out of when they have the foundation in place to compete again.

And their bad deals included extensions for Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc. before they needed to be made. And they also didn't get out from under other deals (Goldschmidt, Arenado) when they should have back in 2023. Those are the mistakes that have done the Cardinals in, not an extension for DeJong, etc.

It certainly is austerity time until the team starts winning division titles or at the very least making the playoffs as I've explained before, St. Louis will NOT support a mediocre or even average team.

BDWJr has ALWAYS tied payroll to attendance, something else we've discussed before.

This is no "phase", it's reality.

Dewitt will only "come out" of this payroll reduction phase WHEN attendance picks up and not before no matter how many contracts come off the books.

I hope I'm 100% wrong matt but a $120M payroll could be the ceiling for some time unless Bloom can perform a miracle and 1) build a great farm system and 2) field a winning team thru smart trades and small FA signings.

But they are also operating differently right now than they ever have. So past correlations may not strictly apply in the future.

As I have pointed out, the plan should be:

1) reduce payroll now, and focus on rebuilding the minor league system/the young talent on the ML roster
2) accept the fact that attendance will drop by 1 - 1.5 million while they are executing (1)
3) once a new critical mass of young talent is on the ML roster, start raising payroll to prior levels and spending again to fill holes and get back to a 90+ win roster
4) attendance picks back up to 3+ million when they start producing 90+ win seasons

So they will likely need to start raising payroll ~1 year in advance of attendance rebounding.

Well they've already been.......

1) Rebuilding the farm system since Bloom's hiring in 2024
2) Seen actual attendance fall to well under 20,000/game and yes I'm at 3/4 home games so I know.
3) You HOPE there's a "mass of young talent" on the ML roster. Right now there's very little and not much down below either so payroll won't be anywhere near prior levels ($180M) for years unless Bloom can somehow patch together a winner.
4) Attendance won't come close to 3+ million until the team has acquired or developed multiple star players and are winning NLC titles.

[mattmitchl44]

But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.

BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).

I don't believe "austerity" is a permanent fixture of the Cardinals model. It's a phase they are going through to rebuild and then come out of when they have the foundation in place to compete again.

And their bad deals included extensions for Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc. before they needed to be made. And they also didn't get out from under other deals (Goldschmidt, Arenado) when they should have back in 2023. Those are the mistakes that have done the Cardinals in, not an extension for DeJong, etc.

It certainly is austerity time until the team starts winning division titles or at the very least making the playoffs as I've explained before, St. Louis will NOT support a mediocre or even average team.

BDWJr has ALWAYS tied payroll to attendance, something else we've discussed before.

This is no "phase", it's reality.

Dewitt will only "come out" of this payroll reduction phase WHEN attendance picks up and not before no matter how many contracts come off the books.

I hope I'm 100% wrong matt but a $120M payroll could be the ceiling for some time unless Bloom can perform a miracle and 1) build a great farm system and 2) field a winning team thru smart trades and small FA signings.

But they are also operating differently right now than they ever have. So past correlations may not strictly apply in the future.

As I have pointed out, the plan should be:

1) reduce payroll now, and focus on rebuilding the minor league system/the young talent on the ML roster
2) accept the fact that attendance will drop by 1 - 1.5 million while they are executing (1)
3) once a new critical mass of young talent is on the ML roster, start raising payroll to prior levels and spending again to fill holes and get back to a 90+ win roster
4) attendance picks back up to 3+ million when they start producing 90+ win seasons

So they will likely need to start raising payroll ~1 year in advance of attendance rebounding.

Well they've already been.......

1) Rebuilding the farm system since Bloom's hiring in 2024
2) Seen actual attendance fall to well under 20,000/game and yes I'm at 3/4 home games so I know.
3) You HOPE there's a "mass of young talent" on the ML roster. Right now there's very little and not much down below either so payroll won't be anywhere near prior levels ($180M) for years unless Bloom can somehow patch together a winner.
4) Attendance won't come close to 3+ million until the team has acquired or developed multiple star players and are winning NLC titles.

And other teams that have done a "deep rebuild" successfully have taken 4+ years. So it might be 2028 or 2029 before a critical mass of young players is in place to start spending to build around. And attendance may not go up sharply again until 2029 or 2030.

[Absolut]

Only
One on roster to consider is Winn. His back issues would have me wait.

Wetherholt, let’s let him cross the line at Busch in a game before we start throwing 200m his way.

[Youboughtit]

But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.

BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).

I don't believe "austerity" is a permanent fixture of the Cardinals model. It's a phase they are going through to rebuild and then come out of when they have the foundation in place to compete again.

And their bad deals included extensions for Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc. before they needed to be made. And they also didn't get out from under other deals (Goldschmidt, Arenado) when they should have back in 2023. Those are the mistakes that have done the Cardinals in, not an extension for DeJong, etc.

It certainly is austerity time until the team starts winning division titles or at the very least making the playoffs as I've explained before, St. Louis will NOT support a mediocre or even average team.

BDWJr has ALWAYS tied payroll to attendance, something else we've discussed before.

This is no "phase", it's reality.

Dewitt will only "come out" of this payroll reduction phase WHEN attendance picks up and not before no matter how many contracts come off the books.

I hope I'm 100% wrong matt but a $120M payroll could be the ceiling for some time unless Bloom can perform a miracle and 1) build a great farm system and 2) field a winning team thru smart trades and small FA signings.

And I've railed ad nauseam about the horrible extensions.

The problem (bad FA signings and extensions plus not dealing Helsley, Fedde, Maton and Matz in the offseason) is out the door soon, hopefully taking his pitiful Manager w/him.

Profit before investment is not how business works. You must invest to see a profit. I will not rerun until I see the payroll back to $178m plus like it should have been. I go to watch superstars in their prime. So go buy a [shirt]ty product so it can get better is an idiotic thing to do. What about the excessive profit from these 20 years? Let him use that to finance the loss now

[Cardly]

The Cards presently have zero talent above or below that deserves an 8 year contract! Please, no!

[Melville]

Momma use to say. “ if Johnny jumped off the roof would you?”

That would depend on the roof, wouldn't it?

[rockondlouie]

But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.

BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).

I don't believe "austerity" is a permanent fixture of the Cardinals model. It's a phase they are going through to rebuild and then come out of when they have the foundation in place to compete again.

And their bad deals included extensions for Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc. before they needed to be made. And they also didn't get out from under other deals (Goldschmidt, Arenado) when they should have back in 2023. Those are the mistakes that have done the Cardinals in, not an extension for DeJong, etc.

It certainly is austerity time until the team starts winning division titles or at the very least making the playoffs as I've explained before, St. Louis will NOT support a mediocre or even average team.

BDWJr has ALWAYS tied payroll to attendance, something else we've discussed before.

This is no "phase", it's reality.

Dewitt will only "come out" of this payroll reduction phase WHEN attendance picks up and not before no matter how many contracts come off the books.

I hope I'm 100% wrong matt but a $120M payroll could be the ceiling for some time unless Bloom can perform a miracle and 1) build a great farm system and 2) field a winning team thru smart trades and small FA signings.

But they are also operating differently right now than they ever have. So past correlations may not strictly apply in the future.

As I have pointed out, the plan should be:

1) reduce payroll now, and focus on rebuilding the minor league system/the young talent on the ML roster
2) accept the fact that attendance will drop by 1 - 1.5 million while they are executing (1)
3) once a new critical mass of young talent is on the ML roster, start raising payroll to prior levels and spending again to fill holes and get back to a 90+ win roster
4) attendance picks back up to 3+ million when they start producing 90+ win seasons

So they will likely need to start raising payroll ~1 year in advance of attendance rebounding.

Well they've already been.......

1) Rebuilding the farm system since Bloom's hiring in 2024
2) Seen actual attendance fall to well under 20,000/game and yes I'm at 3/4 home games so I know.
3) You HOPE there's a "mass of young talent" on the ML roster. Right now there's very little and not much down below either so payroll won't be anywhere near prior levels ($180M) for years unless Bloom can somehow patch together a winner.
4) Attendance won't come close to 3+ million until the team has acquired or developed multiple star players and are winning NLC titles.

And other teams that have done a "deep rebuild" successfully have taken 4+ years. So it might be 2028 or 2029 before a critical mass of young players is in place to start spending to build around. And attendance may not go up sharply again until 2029 or 2030.

You other point out the "outlier" few that it worked for, conveniently ignoring those where it failed.

Wow

So six-seven years (beginning in 2024) of horrible baseball and low attendance............HELLO 1970's.

And NO GUARANTEE of success then either!

BDWJr will be long gone by then, sure hope he accelerates that time table by about three years w/a solid payroll.

[rockondlouie]

But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.

BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).

I don't believe "austerity" is a permanent fixture of the Cardinals model. It's a phase they are going through to rebuild and then come out of when they have the foundation in place to compete again.

And their bad deals included extensions for Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc. before they needed to be made. And they also didn't get out from under other deals (Goldschmidt, Arenado) when they should have back in 2023. Those are the mistakes that have done the Cardinals in, not an extension for DeJong, etc.

It certainly is austerity time until the team starts winning division titles or at the very least making the playoffs as I've explained before, St. Louis will NOT support a mediocre or even average team.

BDWJr has ALWAYS tied payroll to attendance, something else we've discussed before.

This is no "phase", it's reality.

Dewitt will only "come out" of this payroll reduction phase WHEN attendance picks up and not before no matter how many contracts come off the books.

I hope I'm 100% wrong matt but a $120M payroll could be the ceiling for some time unless Bloom can perform a miracle and 1) build a great farm system and 2) field a winning team thru smart trades and small FA signings.

And I've railed ad nauseam about the horrible extensions.

The problem (bad FA signings and extensions plus not dealing Helsley, Fedde, Maton and Matz in the offseason) is out the door soon, hopefully taking his pitiful Manager w/him.

Profit before investment is not how business works. You must invest to see a profit. I will not rerun until I see the payroll back to $178m plus like it should have been. I go to watch superstars in their prime. So go buy a [shirt]ty product so it can get better is an idiotic thing to do. What about the excessive profit from these 20 years? Let him use that to finance the loss now

For sure!

Too bad BDWJr isn't on the same page as us.

[mattmitchl44]

But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.

BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).

I don't believe "austerity" is a permanent fixture of the Cardinals model. It's a phase they are going through to rebuild and then come out of when they have the foundation in place to compete again.

And their bad deals included extensions for Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc. before they needed to be made. And they also didn't get out from under other deals (Goldschmidt, Arenado) when they should have back in 2023. Those are the mistakes that have done the Cardinals in, not an extension for DeJong, etc.

It certainly is austerity time until the team starts winning division titles or at the very least making the playoffs as I've explained before, St. Louis will NOT support a mediocre or even average team.

BDWJr has ALWAYS tied payroll to attendance, something else we've discussed before.

This is no "phase", it's reality.

Dewitt will only "come out" of this payroll reduction phase WHEN attendance picks up and not before no matter how many contracts come off the books.

I hope I'm 100% wrong matt but a $120M payroll could be the ceiling for some time unless Bloom can perform a miracle and 1) build a great farm system and 2) field a winning team thru smart trades and small FA signings.

But they are also operating differently right now than they ever have. So past correlations may not strictly apply in the future.

As I have pointed out, the plan should be:

1) reduce payroll now, and focus on rebuilding the minor league system/the young talent on the ML roster
2) accept the fact that attendance will drop by 1 - 1.5 million while they are executing (1)
3) once a new critical mass of young talent is on the ML roster, start raising payroll to prior levels and spending again to fill holes and get back to a 90+ win roster
4) attendance picks back up to 3+ million when they start producing 90+ win seasons

So they will likely need to start raising payroll ~1 year in advance of attendance rebounding.

Well they've already been.......

1) Rebuilding the farm system since Bloom's hiring in 2024
2) Seen actual attendance fall to well under 20,000/game and yes I'm at 3/4 home games so I know.
3) You HOPE there's a "mass of young talent" on the ML roster. Right now there's very little and not much down below either so payroll won't be anywhere near prior levels ($180M) for years unless Bloom can somehow patch together a winner.
4) Attendance won't come close to 3+ million until the team has acquired or developed multiple star players and are winning NLC titles.

And other teams that have done a "deep rebuild" successfully have taken 4+ years. So it might be 2028 or 2029 before a critical mass of young players is in place to start spending to build around. And attendance may not go up sharply again until 2029 or 2030.

You other point out the "outlier" few that it worked for, conveniently ignoring those where it failed.

Wow

So six-seven years (beginning in 2024) of horrible baseball and low attendance............HELLO 1970's.

And NO GUARANTEE of success then either!

BDWJr will be long gone by then, sure hope he accelerates that time table by about three years w/a solid payroll.

It has worked for Houston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, etc.

Nothing guarantees success, but this approach at least gives a team like the Cardinals the potential to develop a roster that can compete with the big market teams.

[rockondlouie]

But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.

BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).

I don't believe "austerity" is a permanent fixture of the Cardinals model. It's a phase they are going through to rebuild and then come out of when they have the foundation in place to compete again.

And their bad deals included extensions for Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc. before they needed to be made. And they also didn't get out from under other deals (Goldschmidt, Arenado) when they should have back in 2023. Those are the mistakes that have done the Cardinals in, not an extension for DeJong, etc.

It certainly is austerity time until the team starts winning division titles or at the very least making the playoffs as I've explained before, St. Louis will NOT support a mediocre or even average team.

BDWJr has ALWAYS tied payroll to attendance, something else we've discussed before.

This is no "phase", it's reality.

Dewitt will only "come out" of this payroll reduction phase WHEN attendance picks up and not before no matter how many contracts come off the books.

I hope I'm 100% wrong matt but a $120M payroll could be the ceiling for some time unless Bloom can perform a miracle and 1) build a great farm system and 2) field a winning team thru smart trades and small FA signings.

But they are also operating differently right now than they ever have. So past correlations may not strictly apply in the future.

As I have pointed out, the plan should be:

1) reduce payroll now, and focus on rebuilding the minor league system/the young talent on the ML roster
2) accept the fact that attendance will drop by 1 - 1.5 million while they are executing (1)
3) once a new critical mass of young talent is on the ML roster, start raising payroll to prior levels and spending again to fill holes and get back to a 90+ win roster
4) attendance picks back up to 3+ million when they start producing 90+ win seasons

So they will likely need to start raising payroll ~1 year in advance of attendance rebounding.

Well they've already been.......

1) Rebuilding the farm system since Bloom's hiring in 2024
2) Seen actual attendance fall to well under 20,000/game and yes I'm at 3/4 home games so I know.
3) You HOPE there's a "mass of young talent" on the ML roster. Right now there's very little and not much down below either so payroll won't be anywhere near prior levels ($180M) for years unless Bloom can somehow patch together a winner.
4) Attendance won't come close to 3+ million until the team has acquired or developed multiple star players and are winning NLC titles.

And other teams that have done a "deep rebuild" successfully have taken 4+ years. So it might be 2028 or 2029 before a critical mass of young players is in place to start spending to build around. And attendance may not go up sharply again until 2029 or 2030.

You other point out the "outlier" few that it worked for, conveniently ignoring those where it failed.

Wow

So six-seven years (beginning in 2024) of horrible baseball and low attendance............HELLO 1970's.

And NO GUARANTEE of success then either!

BDWJr will be long gone by then, sure hope he accelerates that time table by about three years w/a solid payroll.

It has worked for Houston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, etc.

Nothing guarantees success, but this approach at least gives a team like the Cardinals the potential to develop a roster that can compete with the big market teams.

And it's failed for the Rockies, Pirates, Reds, O's, ChiSox, ect...

Bloom has been hard at work revamping the minor leagues and his system is now in place.

It will be stocked yearly via the draft and trades.

But now he must focus on the Cardinals roster.

He can't sit around and wait six-seven years for the CARDINALS to (hopefully) reap the rewards.

Plus BDWJr will be in his 90's by then and (likely) BDWIII running the show and he's a moron.

BDWJr has to up the payroll to a reasonable level ($160M is not too much to ask) in 2026 so Bloom can field a competitive team while waiting on those minor league assets.

That will keep fan interest and attendance at a solid level.

If Dewitt fails to do that, then you're looking at 1970's level attendance and increased fan apathy.

It's easy to gain a customer, much harder to win them back if you disappoint them.

Failure to give Bloom the payroll he needs will not lead the team back to that 3M level.

And sitting around w/losing season after losing season while HOPING your system develops a couple star players is a risky business plan that guarantees no more success than spending money does.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

Momma use to say. “ if Johnny jumped off the roof would you?”

This is more like, "if Johnny bought Microsoft stock 30 years ago, would you?"

I have loved to ape in back then.