Cubs overrrated

[illiniriles]

Hi Rock. That's interesting. I know one thing. 3 of those wins against the not so magnificent seven by the Cubs were 3 close 1 run decisions at home vs the Rockies. I was hoping they'd lose all of them. Still, I've got to admit, I fear the Cubs. Y'all are more in tune with the modern stats and metrics than I am. But I have compared the gold standard of OPS in most offenses, and the Cub Starters dwarf us just about every position. Seriously, compare them. Then, at the key position of closer, I really like Helsley and am pulling for him to turn it around, but he's really been walking the tightrope, as of late and not as great as last year. The Cubs got their closer back (can't think of his name, but he's a real hard thrower, like Helsley), and he's looking great. Also, they came in to Busch, and their fans were very vocal. Cubs felt WAY to at home in our house. We're going in to Wrigley and we'll see what a REAL home field advantage is like.
Yep, I really fear the Cubs. Bernie Micilaus (Sp?) is a terrific writer and a good baseball man, like most of us on this board. His question "Are the Cubs over rated?" is fair based on his data. But I wouldn't count on it. Still think we needed to win at least one of the last 2 in the series at home to get in their heads. Sorry for the long reply.
GO REDBIRDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Futuregm2]

Hi Rock. That's interesting. I know one thing. 3 of those wins against the not so magnificent seven by the Cubs were 3 close 1 run decisions at home vs the Rockies. I was hoping they'd lose all of them. Still, I've got to admit, I fear the Cubs. Y'all are more in tune with the modern stats and metrics than I am. But I have compared the gold standard of OPS in most offenses, and the Cub Starters dwarf us just about every position. Seriously, compare them. Then, at the key position of closer, I really like Helsley and am pulling for him to turn it around, but he's really been walking the tightrope, as of late and not as great as last year. The Cubs got their closer back (can't think of his name, but he's a real hard thrower, like Helsley), and he's looking great. Also, they came in to Busch, and their fans were very vocal. Cubs felt WAY to at home in our house. We're going in to Wrigley and we'll see what a REAL home field advantage is like.
Yep, I really fear the Cubs. Bernie Micilaus (Sp?) is a terrific writer and a good baseball man, like most of us on this board. His question "Are the Cubs over rated?" is fair based on his data. But I wouldn't count on it. Still think we needed to win at least one of the last 2 in the series at home to get in their heads. Sorry for the long reply.
GO REDBIRDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why would you fear the Cubs? They haven’t been good in years and a big part of their team (Tucker) will likely be gone after this year. And again they are the Cubs.

They continued their struggles vs good teams today losing 7-4 to the Astros. They can beat up on the bad teams but put them against a competent team and they haven’t been good.

[ramfandan]

Lot of talk about Cubs .. very little about Brewers.
In the last 10 games, Milwaukee is 8-2 (Cards 7-3) and Cubs 4-6 .
Brewers are just 2 games out if first.
Look for Brewers to make major trade for added starting pitcher.
Each year the Brewers get underestimated .

[sikeston bulldog2]

Lot of talk about Cubs .. very little about Brewers.
In the last 10 games, Milwaukee is 8-2 (Cards 7-3) and Cubs 4-6 .
Brewers are just 2 games out if first.
Look for Brewers to make major trade for added starting pitcher.
Each year the Brewers get underestimated .

That’s another reason I’d trade for Sandy if healthy and available. To keep the Brewers and Cubs from getting him. If he rebounds could be years of frustration.

[rockondlouie]

This is some very interesting info from Bernie, should make Cardinal fans feel a lot better about where we stand vs the Scrubs.

Note:
This article was written two days ago, before the Cards lost two to the scrubs so adjust some numbers

CUBS: OVERRATED?

Through Tuesday night only 2 and ½ games separated Chicago and St. Louis in the standings. That reflects well on the Cardinals because the Cubs have played a much easier schedule.

I looked at each team’s record against the MLB teams that are in the bottom seven in overall winning percentage.

Those stinky teams are the Rockies, White Sox, A’s, Pirates, Marlins, Nationals and Orioles. Through Tuesday, that group of seven were collectively 143 games under .500. The Orioles were nine games under .500. The other six ranged from 13 games under .500 to 43 games under .500.

The Cubs have had a lot of games, 25, against the seven weakest teams in the majors. And it’s no surprise to see the Cubs with a 15-5 record against the bottom seven. The .800 winning percentage in those games looks good for the Cubs. The good teams are supposed to beat up the bad teams.

But here’s the thing. The Cardinals have the same .800 winning percentage against the seven worst teams in MLB. But unlike the Cubs, who stacked victories in 25 games against the losingest teams, the Cardinals have played only 15 games against the sorriest assortment of teams in the majors. And the Cardinals have done very well against them, going 12-3.

The point: considering that St. Louis has played 10 fewer games than the Cubs in the matchups against the most hapless teams, the Cardinals have done a (drat) good job to be only 2 and ½ games in back of the Cubs.

OK, but what about the records against opponents that currently rank in the top 10 in MLB for winning percentage? Actually, it’s the top 11 because the Cardinals and Brewers are tied for 10th with a .550 winning percentage.

Here’s what I learned about the Cubs and the Cardinals when they’ve gone up against the teams that have a top 11 winning percentage so far in 2025.

Cubs: 12-17

Cardinals: 16-15

To recap: the Cubs have beaten the drivel out of the seven most pathetic teams this season … and have had 25 games to do so. The Cardinals have also roughed up the gang of the worst seven … but have had 10 fewer games than the Cubs against the weak-link teams.

But when the Cubs and Cardinals match up against opponents that rank among the top 11 in winning percentage through June 24, it looks like this: St. Louis, .516 winning percentage. Chicago: .414 winning pct.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Looking at it closer, it’s not just the Cardinals vs the Cubs. We’ve played considerably less games against the really bad teams than most of the current playoff contenders.

Games vs bottom 7 teams
Phillies: 29 games (+48)
Mets: 25 games (+60)
Cubs: 25 games (+87)
Dodgers: 24 games (+65)
Padres: 21 games (+38)
Brewers: 16 games (+37)
Cardinals: 15 games (+38)

This bodes really well for the Cardinals if they can continue to dominate lesser teams!

[Goldfan]

They have also lost two starting pitchers to injury and against the "good " teams that's going to matter.

Cardinals haven't had to deal with that thank goodness.

And the Cardinals have lost I. Hererra, their best hitter.

Injuries happen to all teams 11WSC.

I guarantee you if we had loss that many starters in the rotation we'd be a lot worse off.

McGreevy would've taken one spot, he's a s good or better than Pallante, Mikolas and Fedde.

Let see what the scrubbies look like if they lost Tucker or Crow-Armstrong.

The OF separates these teams.

[ScotchMIrish]

Good article. Thanks for posting.

I'd say the Cubs aren't great but are currently tied for 2nd best record in the NL at the midway point of the season and I don't know where they are getting the money but they have a $60 million higher payroll than the Cards and likely have the ability to add payroll prior to July 31 if needed.

Not sure we have the ability to take on more salary.

Cubs currently $57 million more total payroll and $47 million active payroll (factoring injuries).

I'm guessing their tv deal must bring in more money. They also have better attendance at that old ballpark.

[rockondlouie]

They have also lost two starting pitchers to injury and against the "good " teams that's going to matter.

Cardinals haven't had to deal with that thank goodness.

And the Cardinals have lost I. Hererra, their best hitter.

Injuries happen to all teams 11WSC.

I guarantee you if we had loss that many starters in the rotation we'd be a lot worse off.

McGreevy would've taken one spot, he's a s good or better than Pallante, Mikolas and Fedde.

Let see what the scrubbies look like if they lost Tucker or Crow-Armstrong.

The OF separates these teams.

No doubt

Cardinals OF has been the weak spot on this team for way, way too long.

[11WSChamps]

They have also lost two starting pitchers to injury and against the "good " teams that's going to matter.

Cardinals haven't had to deal with that thank goodness.

And the Cardinals have lost I. Hererra, their best hitter.

Injuries happen to all teams 11WSC.

I guarantee you if we had loss that many starters in the rotation we'd be a lot worse off.

McGreevy would've taken one spot, he's a s good or better than Pallante, Mikolas and Fedde.

Let see what the scrubbies look like if they lost Tucker or Crow-Armstrong.

We don't know how good or not so good McGreevy is going to be.

His peripherals don't play as far as I'm concerned for more than a back end starter.

Comparing those pitchers to Tucker or Crow-Armstrong is ridiculous.

If the Cardinals had lost that many rotation starts with three starters the season would be over.

[Futuregm2]

They have also lost two starting pitchers to injury and against the "good " teams that's going to matter.

Cardinals haven't had to deal with that thank goodness.

And the Cardinals have lost I. Hererra, their best hitter.

Injuries happen to all teams 11WSC.

I guarantee you if we had loss that many starters in the rotation we'd be a lot worse off.

McGreevy would've taken one spot, he's a s good or better than Pallante, Mikolas and Fedde.

Let see what the scrubbies look like if they lost Tucker or Crow-Armstrong.

We don't know how good or not so good McGreevy is going to be.

His peripherals don't play as far as I'm concerned for more than a back end starter.

Comparing those pitchers to Tucker or Crow-Armstrong is ridiculous.

If the Cardinals had lost that many rotation starts with three starters the season would be over.

McGreevy has a 2.95 FIP in 44 big league innings so far. He has a 6.80 K/BB ratio, a 7.1 H/9, and 0.6 HR/9. How do his peripherals not play? You're talking about Assad being a big loss and he has a career 4.49 FIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 2.00 K/BB ratio.

[11WSChamps]

They have also lost two starting pitchers to injury and against the "good " teams that's going to matter.

Cardinals haven't had to deal with that thank goodness.

And the Cardinals have lost I. Hererra, their best hitter.

Injuries happen to all teams 11WSC.

I guarantee you if we had loss that many starters in the rotation we'd be a lot worse off.

McGreevy would've taken one spot, he's a s good or better than Pallante, Mikolas and Fedde.

Let see what the scrubbies look like if they lost Tucker or Crow-Armstrong.

We don't know how good or not so good McGreevy is going to be.

His peripherals don't play as far as I'm concerned for more than a back end starter.

Comparing those pitchers to Tucker or Crow-Armstrong is ridiculous.

If the Cardinals had lost that many rotation starts with three starters the season would be over.

McGreevy has a 2.95 FIP in 44 big league innings so far. He has a 6.80 K/BB ratio, a 7.1 H/9, and 0.6 HR/9. How do his peripherals not play? You're talking about Assad being a big loss and he has a career 4.49 FIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 2.00 K/BB ratio.

I guess you forgot to look at his minor league peripherals.

I didn't say Assad was a big loss...Where did I say that?

I mentioned him as one of the starters that's all.

McGreevy will be nothing more than a backend starter..and there's noting wrong with that if he can stay healthy and eat innings which has value.

And you guys are also forgetting there's two more spots in the rotation to fill..Matz would be available but then that leaves a huge hole in the BP a role ha has been invaluable in. Who fills the the third spot..? Graceffo? LOL

[Futuregm2]

They have also lost two starting pitchers to injury and against the "good " teams that's going to matter.

Cardinals haven't had to deal with that thank goodness.

And the Cardinals have lost I. Hererra, their best hitter.

Injuries happen to all teams 11WSC.

I guarantee you if we had loss that many starters in the rotation we'd be a lot worse off.

McGreevy would've taken one spot, he's a s good or better than Pallante, Mikolas and Fedde.

Let see what the scrubbies look like if they lost Tucker or Crow-Armstrong.

We don't know how good or not so good McGreevy is going to be.

His peripherals don't play as far as I'm concerned for more than a back end starter.

Comparing those pitchers to Tucker or Crow-Armstrong is ridiculous.

If the Cardinals had lost that many rotation starts with three starters the season would be over.

McGreevy has a 2.95 FIP in 44 big league innings so far. He has a 6.80 K/BB ratio, a 7.1 H/9, and 0.6 HR/9. How do his peripherals not play? You're talking about Assad being a big loss and he has a career 4.49 FIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 2.00 K/BB ratio.

I guess you forgot to look at his minor league peripherals.

I didn't say Assad was a big loss...Where did I say that?

I mentioned him as one of the starters that's all.

McGreevy will be nothing more than a backend starter..and there's noting wrong with that if he can stay healthy and eat innings which has value.

And you guys are also forgetting there's two more spots in the rotation to fill..Matz would be available but then that leaves a huge hole in the BP a role ha has been invaluable in. Who fills the the third spot..? Graceffo? LOL

9.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, and 5.33 K/BB ratio in AAA this year in 61 IP. I would imagine his defense is much better in the MLB than it is in AAA with guys like Winn, Arenado, and Donovan on the infield.

And the Assad injury was midway through spring training so if that happened to one of our guys maybe they would have been able to sign a guy cheap. Or it's possible Mathews may have had a better chance at going north with the club. And it's possible. Graceffo is no funnier than the Cubs having a guy like Colin Rea (4.55 career MLB ERA) in their rotation. One of their best starters to this point, Matthew Boyd, hasn't made more than 16 starts since 2019. So while they've been unlucky with the injuries overall, they've been lucky so far with Boyd.

Again, I would rather have pitching injuries than an injury to one of my best hitters. Maybe it's just me, but I would rather lose a guy that will have 5 starts in a month than a guy that can impact every game for that month.

[11WSChamps]

They have also lost two starting pitchers to injury and against the "good " teams that's going to matter.

Cardinals haven't had to deal with that thank goodness.

And the Cardinals have lost I. Hererra, their best hitter.

Injuries happen to all teams 11WSC.

I guarantee you if we had loss that many starters in the rotation we'd be a lot worse off.

McGreevy would've taken one spot, he's a s good or better than Pallante, Mikolas and Fedde.

Let see what the scrubbies look like if they lost Tucker or Crow-Armstrong.

We don't know how good or not so good McGreevy is going to be.

His peripherals don't play as far as I'm concerned for more than a back end starter.

Comparing those pitchers to Tucker or Crow-Armstrong is ridiculous.

If the Cardinals had lost that many rotation starts with three starters the season would be over.

McGreevy has a 2.95 FIP in 44 big league innings so far. He has a 6.80 K/BB ratio, a 7.1 H/9, and 0.6 HR/9. How do his peripherals not play? You're talking about Assad being a big loss and he has a career 4.49 FIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 2.00 K/BB ratio.

I guess you forgot to look at his minor league peripherals.

I didn't say Assad was a big loss...Where did I say that?

I mentioned him as one of the starters that's all.

McGreevy will be nothing more than a backend starter..and there's noting wrong with that if he can stay healthy and eat innings which has value.

And you guys are also forgetting there's two more spots in the rotation to fill..Matz would be available but then that leaves a huge hole in the BP a role ha has been invaluable in. Who fills the the third spot..? Graceffo? LOL

9.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, and 5.33 K/BB ratio in AAA this year in 61 IP. I would imagine his defense is much better in the MLB than it is in AAA with guys like Winn, Arenado, and Donovan on the infield.

And the Assad injury was midway through spring training so if that happened to one of our guys maybe they would have been able to sign a guy cheap. Or it's possible Mathews may have had a better chance at going north with the club. And it's possible. Graceffo is no funnier than the Cubs having a guy like Colin Rea (4.55 career MLB ERA) in their rotation. One of their best starters to this point, Matthew Boyd, hasn't made more than 16 starts since 2019. So while they've been unlucky with the injuries overall, they've been lucky so far with Boyd.

Again, I would rather have pitching injuries than an injury to one of my best hitters. Maybe it's just me, but I would rather lose a guy that will have 5 starts in a month than a guy that can impact every game for that month.

You're reaching with Mathews and Graceffo and McGreevy won't miss enough at bats at this level. He gave up a hit per inning and yes the defense will be better but the hitters will be exponentially better.

Losing three starters and what they could expect to bring to the table in holding down opponents not to mention the strain on the bullpen will outweigh what IH's two IL stints does, a short stint for Winn which Saggese substituted for very well or Walker who's been a non factor.

[Northsider76]

I love the "IF the Cubs lost Tucker or PCA...", but they haven't. Every team that makes a World Series run is blessed with health. Any major league club that loses their difference makers would struggle. So, I don't get the point.

In terms of not being able to add salary... wrong. The Cubs are printing money. Whether they will spend it or not is another conversation. Cubs fans have been waiting for management to drop the salary hammer on the rest of the division like a big market team should. It hasn't happened. Tucker walking isn't a sure thing and it will be the first big test for ownership on whether they are willing to put their money where their mouth is now that the team has exited the rebuild. With Cam Smith raking, they should be well motivated to close that deal if Tucker is willing and the $$ is right.

[Northsider76]

They have also lost two starting pitchers to injury and against the "good " teams that's going to matter.

Cardinals haven't had to deal with that thank goodness.

And the Cardinals have lost I. Hererra, their best hitter.

Injuries happen to all teams 11WSC.

I guarantee you if we had loss that many starters in the rotation we'd be a lot worse off.

McGreevy would've taken one spot, he's a s good or better than Pallante, Mikolas and Fedde.

Let see what the scrubbies look like if they lost Tucker or Crow-Armstrong.

We don't know how good or not so good McGreevy is going to be.

His peripherals don't play as far as I'm concerned for more than a back end starter.

Comparing those pitchers to Tucker or Crow-Armstrong is ridiculous.

If the Cardinals had lost that many rotation starts with three starters the season would be over.

McGreevy has a 2.95 FIP in 44 big league innings so far. He has a 6.80 K/BB ratio, a 7.1 H/9, and 0.6 HR/9. How do his peripherals not play? You're talking about Assad being a big loss and he has a career 4.49 FIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 2.00 K/BB ratio.

I guess you forgot to look at his minor league peripherals.

I didn't say Assad was a big loss...Where did I say that?

I mentioned him as one of the starters that's all.

McGreevy will be nothing more than a backend starter..and there's noting wrong with that if he can stay healthy and eat innings which has value.

And you guys are also forgetting there's two more spots in the rotation to fill..Matz would be available but then that leaves a huge hole in the BP a role ha has been invaluable in. Who fills the the third spot..? Graceffo? LOL

9.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, and 5.33 K/BB ratio in AAA this year in 61 IP. I would imagine his defense is much better in the MLB than it is in AAA with guys like Winn, Arenado, and Donovan on the infield.

And the Assad injury was midway through spring training so if that happened to one of our guys maybe they would have been able to sign a guy cheap. Or it's possible Mathews may have had a better chance at going north with the club. And it's possible. Graceffo is no funnier than the Cubs having a guy like Colin Rea (4.55 career MLB ERA) in their rotation. One of their best starters to this point, Matthew Boyd, hasn't made more than 16 starts since 2019. So while they've been unlucky with the injuries overall, they've been lucky so far with Boyd.

Again, I would rather have pitching injuries than an injury to one of my best hitters. Maybe it's just me, but I would rather lose a guy that will have 5 starts in a month than a guy that can impact every game for that month.

Luck has nothing to do with it. Their pitch lab worked with Boyd. Rea too along with Keller and Pomeranz. The Cubs have invested in their pitching infrastructure with the hire of Tyler Zombro as a special assistant and paying Hottovy.

[Cusecards]

Drinking coffee and thinking.....”hey maybe I’ll go to a Cubs Forum and talk about the Cardinals”?????

On second thought.....that is senseless so never mind!