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Not a sexy answer but it ultimately doesn't matter all that much.

If they have a losing record by the deadline then yeah they should trade him bc they can definitely get more (though not necessarily a lot more) than a QO pick.

If they have a good chance at playoffs they might as well keep him because a QO pick plus a potential playoff run isn't all that much less than whatever they can get for him in trade.

He's not Hader level of dominant, especially this year with uncharacteristic control issues and an almost 1.5 WHIP... so that comp is a little off imo.

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 10:27 am Not a sexy answer but it ultimately doesn't matter all that much.

If they have a losing record by the deadline then yeah they should trade him bc they can definitely get more (though not necessarily a lot more) than a QO pick.

If they have a good chance at playoffs they might as well keep him because a QO pick plus a potential playoff run isn't all that much less than whatever they can get for him in trade.

He's not Hader level of dominant, especially this year with uncharacteristic control issues and an almost 1.5 WHIP... so that comp is a little off imo.

Yep. They probably missed their chance at a big return not doing it last trade deadline or last offseason. Probably should have tried for a good prospect from the Dodgers instead of Fedde as well for Edman, but can't do much about that now.

I think you're right, it's QO if we're contending by trade deadline, trade if not.

Ronnie Dobbs wrote: ↑21 May 2025 10:33 am

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 10:27 am Not a sexy answer but it ultimately doesn't matter all that much.

If they have a losing record by the deadline then yeah they should trade him bc they can definitely get more (though not necessarily a lot more) than a QO pick.

If they have a good chance at playoffs they might as well keep him because a QO pick plus a potential playoff run isn't all that much less than whatever they can get for him in trade.

He's not Hader level of dominant, especially this year with uncharacteristic control issues and an almost 1.5 WHIP... so that comp is a little off imo.

Yep. They probably missed their chance at a big return not doing it last trade deadline or last offseason. Probably should have tried for a good prospect from the Dodgers instead of Fedde as well for Edman, but can't do much about that now.

I think you're right, it's QO if we're contending by trade deadline, trade if not.

Yes, it’s not necessarily a slam dunk to go the trade route.
Example: The Brewers would have traded SS Willy Adames if they preferred a package but the kept him and were OK receiving thr 34th bonus pick.
The level of pick factors into the decision. If you have a $50M and over type player, you receive the highest tier pick possible.
Cards would get that level just like Brewers did for Adames departure.
Obtaining the 30th best player in the country is quite valuable to baseball draft guys like Flores.

ramfandan wrote: ↑21 May 2025 10:19 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑21 May 2025 09:53 am

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑21 May 2025 09:23 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑21 May 2025 08:43 am

ramfandan wrote: ↑21 May 2025 07:00 am

stormtime wrote: ↑21 May 2025 06:51 am There is no universe that exists where a comp pick would even come remotely close to what a bidding war could look like.

The bidding war sounds good . The Brewers had a similar situation with All Star closer Josh Hader a few years ago . They traded Hader in a 4 for 1 deal to the Padres . That trade did not materialize what a lot people thought. Ask Brewer fans today if they got such a haul for Hader . They remain ticked today . I have Brewer buddies in Wis. The bidding war didn't result in what they thought.

Bingo

And at that time Hader was way more desirable than Helsley is today.

Fans who act like the Cardinals will get this awesome player(s) in return for Helsley (or Fedde or Matz or NADO) are dreaming.

It's nothing more than a lotto ticket prospect for those guys.

Then what’s the answer. You trade you get nothing; you let walk you get nothing.

Yea it's a c r a p shoot when you aren't dealing premium talent other than Helsley and even he might not bring back anyone of value.

Perhaps you get lucky, who knows?

It sure is a crapshoot. Using my example of Josh Hader. You are correct his value was higher then than Helsley now especially since he had additional year left on contract unlike Helsley who becomes free agent right away.
One would think a 4 for 1 trade would always be better than a single draft pick (comp) but if you compared those 4 guys vs. one pick..better thsn2nd rounder. ..would you rather have those 4 or 1 Masyn Winn.(was 2nd rounder )
Baseball execs would say. OMG Give me Winn over those 4 !
That 30th some extra pick may be gold !

Plus Hader was younger (28 -vs- 31 in July) and didn't have as extensive an injury history.

Ronnie Dobbs wrote: ↑21 May 2025 10:33 am

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 10:27 am Not a sexy answer but it ultimately doesn't matter all that much.

If they have a losing record by the deadline then yeah they should trade him bc they can definitely get more (though not necessarily a lot more) than a QO pick.

If they have a good chance at playoffs they might as well keep him because a QO pick plus a potential playoff run isn't all that much less than whatever they can get for him in trade.

He's not Hader level of dominant, especially this year with uncharacteristic control issues and an almost 1.5 WHIP... so that comp is a little off imo.

Yep. They probably missed their chance at a big return not doing it last trade deadline or last offseason. Probably should have tried for a good prospect from the Dodgers instead of Fedde as well for Edman, but can't do much about that now.

I think you're right, it's QO if we're contending by trade deadline, trade if not.

The good news is that the Cards don’t need to make that decision for a couple of months. This question will answer itself by mid July.

I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

An Old Friend wrote: ↑21 May 2025 13:59 pm I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 14:19 pm

An Old Friend wrote: ↑21 May 2025 13:59 pm I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

An Old Friend wrote: ↑21 May 2025 14:21 pm

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 14:19 pm

An Old Friend wrote: ↑21 May 2025 13:59 pm I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Sure it does...

$145M starting (2025 payroll)
-17.6M Mikolas
-11M Matz
-7.5M Fedde
+20M Helsley

= $129M 2026 payroll, before arb increases

I guess I'm not sure what you mean by "reset payroll floor"... they already reset it this year to the tune of $30M less than continuation. Has it been reported they're planning to "reset it" further?

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 14:28 pm

An Old Friend wrote: ↑21 May 2025 14:21 pm

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 14:19 pm

An Old Friend wrote: ↑21 May 2025 13:59 pm I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Sure it does...

$145M starting (2025 payroll)
-17.6M Mikolas
-11M Matz
-7.5M Fedde
+20M Helsley

= $129M 2026 payroll, before arb increases

I guess I'm not sure what you mean by "reset payroll floor"... they already reset it this year to the tune of $30M less than continuation. Has it been reported they're planning to "reset it" further?

I've gathered that their intent is a new operating model with a lower payroll than we're accustomed to at least until the next CBA is completed. Their revenues are far too uncertain. I do not anticipate them moving it back up meaningfully.

An Old Friend wrote: ↑21 May 2025 15:11 pm

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 14:28 pm I guess I'm not sure what you mean by "reset payroll floor"... they already reset it this year to the tune of $30M less than continuation. Has it been reported they're planning to "reset it" further?

I've gathered that their intent is a new operating model with a lower payroll than we're accustomed to at least until the next CBA is completed. Their revenues are far too uncertain. I do not anticipate them moving it back up meaningfully.

Thanks for clarifying... I consider it outrageous but I would definitely not put it past this F.O.

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 15:20 pm

An Old Friend wrote: ↑21 May 2025 15:11 pm

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 14:28 pm I guess I'm not sure what you mean by "reset payroll floor"... they already reset it this year to the tune of $30M less than continuation. Has it been reported they're planning to "reset it" further?

I've gathered that their intent is a new operating model with a lower payroll than we're accustomed to at least until the next CBA is completed. Their revenues are far too uncertain. I do not anticipate them moving it back up meaningfully.

Thanks for clarifying... I consider it outrageous but I would definitely not put it past this F.O.

Think about what we know:
- declining attendance
- declining viewership
- drastically reduced cable/TV deal
- unknown equity loss in Bally bankruptcy
- CBA expiring after 2026 --> reluctance to commit long-term dollars
- wishy washy messaging about "resets" and "transitions". They just are hoping fans don't see through their intentional ambiguity
- hired guys with roots in Cleveland and Tampa - organizations that are built to compete with bottom 3rd payrolls

I don't see a near term path towards higher payroll numbers

An Old Friend wrote: ↑21 May 2025 15:25 pm

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 15:20 pm

An Old Friend wrote: ↑21 May 2025 15:11 pm

3dender wrote: ↑21 May 2025 14:28 pm I guess I'm not sure what you mean by "reset payroll floor"... they already reset it this year to the tune of $30M less than continuation. Has it been reported they're planning to "reset it" further?

I've gathered that their intent is a new operating model with a lower payroll than we're accustomed to at least until the next CBA is completed. Their revenues are far too uncertain. I do not anticipate them moving it back up meaningfully.

Thanks for clarifying... I consider it outrageous but I would definitely not put it past this F.O.

Think about what we know:
- declining attendance
- declining viewership
- drastically reduced cable/TV deal
- unknown equity loss in Bally bankruptcy
- CBA expiring after 2026 --> reluctance to commit long-term dollars
- wishy washy messaging about "resets" and "transitions". They just are hoping fans don't see through their intentional ambiguity
- hired guys with roots in Cleveland and Tampa - organizations that are built to compete with bottom 3rd payrolls

I don't see a near term path towards higher payroll numbers

Yeah I don't doubt that's the direction they're choosing, I just still find it outrageous and even more than that misguided. LIke they will not recuperate attendance down that path and they're basically relegating the franchise to exist in the Pirate/Reds tier, which seems like criminal negligence with an asset as valuable as this franchise (and that lets alone the immoral mistreatment of the fans).

Especially when you consider data points like this for example:

If the Cardinals are more than five games out at the trade deadline and they can get a pitcher on some team''s top five prospect list for Helsley. They need to do it.

AnExParrot wrote: ↑21 May 2025 07:41 am

ramfandan wrote: ↑21 May 2025 07:00 am

stormtime wrote: ↑21 May 2025 06:51 am There is no universe that exists where a comp pick would even come remotely close to what a bidding war could look like.

The bidding war sounds good . The Brewers had a similar situation with All Star closer Josh Hader a few years ago . They traded Hader in a 4 for 1 deal to the Padres . That trade did not materialize what a lot people thought. Ask Brewer fans today if they got such a haul for Hader . They remain ticked today . I have Brewer buddies in Wis. The bidding war didn't result in what they thought.

Milwaukee got Esteury Ruiz in the Hader trade, who was then pushed into the Atlanta/Oakland Sean Murphy trade to net William Contreras, the Brewers' best hitter(by OPS+) in '23 and '24. What the hell are they mad about?

I don't think Ruiz (now in AAA) was the key part of the 3-team big trade, as the A's wanted LHP Kyle Muller - the Braves' #1 prospect (not done well in MLB) and RHP Freddy Tarnok (Braves # 6-ranked prospect). Ruiz was the Brewers' 8th-ranked and is now in AAA.

Milwaukee received Contreras, Joel Payamps, and Justin Yeager from Atlanta
Oakland received Ruiz, Manny Piña, Kyle Muller, Freddy Tarnok, and Royber Salinas from Atlanta and the Brewers.
Atlanta acquired Sean Murphy from Oakland.
https://www.mlb.com/news/william-contre ... wers-trade

World Series teams until the Dodgers decided to buy every top player the last couple years usually emerged when a young nucleus came together and just won. The Braves are a good example in 2021. The Cards are now getting that with Scott II, Herrera and Winn who are emerging as stars with a strong supporting cast. It they are in contention, you let them play. It sends the entirely wrong message to trade off the team at the trading deadline. The chances of the Cards getting to the trading deadline without an injury to a SP such that they need to call up McGreevy is probably not that high. At which point, who are you going to trade? The Cards literally have no one else in the system ready to start at the ML level.

As far as 2026, Mikolas is pitching well. He would probably take a 20% reduction and pitch for the Cards again in 2026. If Fedde keeps pitching well, a QO could be attached to him as well as Helsley. If Helsley takes it next year, fine, perhaps he makes them a true contender in 2026 as well. This team has a chance and they should be given the opportunity. They just played 4 very good teams and went 8-4. They swept the Twins to open the season who are a very good team. Besides that early rough patch against the Red Sox and the Mets, this team has looked more than good. Are they going to win the WS? Not likely. Is there chance > than 0% to win the WS this year? Yes.