What would be a "breakout season" for Lars Nootbaar

[hullie]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

Donovan is not an everyday corner OF, either. Not enough power and has zero power vs. LHP -- no career HRs vs. lefties. He's a platoon guy for a corner OF spot at best. Still not enough power overall.

Yet he’s being used as a cleanup hitter.

[imadangman]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

Donovan is not an everyday corner OF, either. Not enough power and has zero power vs. LHP -- no career HRs vs. lefties. He's a platoon guy for a corner OF spot at best. Still not enough power overall.

Yet he’s being used as a cleanup hitter.

I've said before that I wouldn't be surprised if Donovan had something similar to a Daniel Murphy type of career arc.

[Melville]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

Largely correct.
Though extremely unlikely that Lars The Human Sushi-baar will ever reach 18 HR in a season, let alone actually average that amount.
He should have been traded a couple of years ago as I was first to correctly analyze and advise.

[Bushiro]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

Yeah stay on the field...curious what a full season would look like...definitely has talent and a drive to get better

[Basil Shabazz]

As I have always stated when this convo arises.... Noot is a fine player to have while cost controlled. He is fine as a starting corner OF (when healthy) on an average to below average MLB team. He is nice piece (when healthy) as a 4th OF on a contending MLB team.

People will show you where he rans in percentile for hard hit balls, launch angles, OPS+, or whatever cherry picked metric they can find to show you that he is an upper echelon MLB OFer. All of these metrics are fine, but they are limited in sample size because he never plays a full season. He is compared in these metrics to players that have full bodies of work, thus higher counting stats and production.

The fact is that in parts of 4 MLB seasons, he has enough PAs to constitute 2 MLB seasons. In 1173 PAs he has a .246 batting average. His numbers would translate well if he were a CF, but he is not. A full season of Noot in CF would translate to -10+ DRS or worse.

[rockondlouie]

Hitting lead-off:

600 PA
18-20 HR
50-60 RBI
90-100 Runs
10-15 SB's
.275 .365 .460 .825

[imadangman]

Hitting lead-off:

600 PA
18-20 HR
50-60 RBI
90-100 Runs
10-15 SB's
.275 .365 .460 .825

Those are definitely serviceable numbers for a leadoff hitter

[imadangman]

As I have always stated when this convo arises.... Noot is a fine player to have while cost controlled. He is fine as a starting corner OF (when healthy) on an average to below average MLB team. He is nice piece (when healthy) as a 4th OF on a contending MLB team.

People will show you where he rans in percentile for hard hit balls, launch angles, OPS+, or whatever cherry picked metric they can find to show you that he is an upper echelon MLB OFer. All of these metrics are fine, but they are limited in sample size because he never plays a full season. He is compared in these metrics to players that have full bodies of work, thus higher counting stats and production.

The fact is that in parts of 4 MLB seasons, he has enough PAs to constitute 2 MLB seasons. In 1173 PAs he has a .246 batting average. His numbers would translate well if he were a CF, but he is not. A full season of Noot in CF would translate to -10+ DRS or worse.

This sums up how I view him. Good leadoff hitter for now but by the time his salary starts going up, I hope we have more options for a corner outfielder.

[imetsatchelpaige]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

If he does stay healthy I don't doubt the numbers would be solid (enough). Would you expect him to repeat it for multiple years. I still think we are talking about just a fine player, not some super star that is just too hot to handle.

So Ryan Ludwick ?

We should be so lucky.

[rockondlouie]

Hitting lead-off:

600 PA
18-20 HR
50-60 RBI
90-100 Runs
10-15 SB's
.275 .365 .460 .825

Those are definitely serviceable numbers for a leadoff hitter

IF, big IF, he can just get those 600 PA's, then I think he can reach those types of numbers.

[ClassicO]

Does it looks like this?
It’s early but it’s nice that he’s penciled in every day at LO and healthy.

[Futuregm2]

Does it looks like this?
It’s early but it’s nice that he’s penciled in every day at LO and healthy.

Yep

Pacing for 27 HRs
15 BB-12 K
OBP over .400

[rockondlouie]

Does it looks like this?
It’s early but it’s nice that he’s penciled in every day at LO and healthy.

[ClassicO]

What would a breakout season look like?
.250, with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 65 runs.
His "breakout" would be therefore an improvement to "mediocre".

Can you just stop making predictions that are 95% wrong? It's an embarrassment.

You've maligned Noot for years and said it was "utter foolishness" to rely on him -- or Donovan - as left-handed hitters to help the team.

And let's not forget this gem: "Herrera or Knizner will be traded - and the choice might be determined by the the needs or "fit" of the trade partner. Herrera is the more likely to go."

[Futuregm2]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

[thetank2]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

Largely correct.
Though extremely unlikely that Lars The Human Sushi-baar will ever reach 18 HR in a season, let alone actually average that amount.
He should have been traded a couple of years ago as I was first to correctly analyze and advise.

He only needs 13 more HRs this season, right?