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do we really want a high school pitcher?

82birds wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 12:08 pm do we really want a high school pitcher?

I believe only 3 HS pitchers have gone Top 5 in the last 10-15 years, Jackson Jobe (Tigers), and he just made the Majors 2 weeks ago,so he's a success. Organizations tend steer clear from them at the top of the draft, plus there's usually better options this high up....but there's slim pickings it seems this year. We're not getting Jamie Arnold and we're likely not getting Ethan Holliday. The next tier down is, if it is only 1 tier, is Houston, Arquette (which I can't see how he's 2nd or 3rd tier, I'm not sold on him at all) Carlson, and Hernandez (HS pitcher). Hernadez has earned his way into the Top 5 discussion, I believe more so than any of the others I've listed. I'd take him at #5...he's that good of a pitcher, I'd call him the best RHP in the draft, that includes college...like Witherspoon.

Anyways....this draft is going to fun to watch....last year, we knew the Top 8 or so...not the order, but we knew all the Top Tier players, and they all went in the Top 8...it was that way all season long....we all saw the Mocks, only few players fell out of the Top 10.

This year is different....while the Tier 3 and 4 players are more than plentiful, which will get us through the 4th and 5th rounds (making this draft deep in that aspect)....Tier 1 and Tier 2 are thin....It's going to be a volatile draft, which will cause teams to draft all over the place....it's 2021 all over again, that PreDraft Board didn't match the actual draft...not even close.

If we drafted Hernandez at #5, I'd be more than ecstatic.... I can only think of 2 or 3 players that fit that mold. I can't overwhelmingly happy about the rest, but I guess I could live with them.

The ELITE college bats don't exist this season....I can't name a single Bazzana, Wetherholt, Kurtz, Cags or Condon....none of them wowed you with their glove or speed, but they were the best Hitter/Power combo group to come along in years.

We can't be picky is my point....gotta pick the best available player. I've talked with quite a few people who want another run at a championship and they want it in short order, and they feel we need a big bat this draft to make this happen...well, unfortunately, you're not getting that this draft...and I really don't want to waste a Top 5 pick on a Possible Power nsy who won't make contact at the next level.....or a contact bat, who won't have power at the next level....Those players are #18-22 pick players....we're not

If Hernandez isn't available, I'd strongly consider Carlson, SS, Corona HS....or Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma....or LHP Kade Anderson LSU. I still like Doyle, LHP, Tennesse (need some consistent outings the rest of the way)

Houston's bat has cooled off, Arquette's bat doesn't impress me as much as the professional pundits...I can't get over the BB/K rate...his Rate is bothersome. I like Devin Taylor and Ethan Petry's with their bats, especially on the Summer Circuits with the Wooden Bats, they were elite vs. their competition...but their other tools are lacking (defense, speed, arm)

Kilen keeps having Hamstring setbacks each time he tries to run in pregames. Conrad has a bad shoulder injury, I don't think he returns. Cannarella can hit, but his shoulder has 100% recovered from surgery (September) , so any chance at power improvement is out the window this season...he has elite speed, but doesn't use it to steal bases

82birds wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 12:08 pm do we really want a high school pitcher?

excuse that diatribe...I was just trying to explain our very, very limited options.

I'm going to use a term that was coined in the NFL as far as I am aware. Best Available Player.

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:37 pm I'm going to use a term that was coined in the NFL as far as I am aware. Best Available Player.

that Pertains to most drafts and most years, but not every year. Every teams BAP list is going to be different by a Country MILE this season....Which will make for a Chaotic Draft....and I don't think a lot of people on Cards Talk will be happy with our pick....we can't create magic and produce a HOF Bat this draft ...they don't exist...pitcher (even HS) may be the best way to go....or a Highschool SS who just wows the pants off us.

Unless Kilen gets back for Tennessee and goes crazy in the SEC Tourney, Regionals and CWS, we're out of luck with the College Bats

craviduce wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:36 pm

82birds wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 12:08 pm do we really want a high school pitcher?

excuse that diatribe...I was just trying to explain our very, very limited options.

5. St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS (CA)

The first high school pitcher was not selected last year until Cam Caminiti went to the Atlanta Braves at No. 24 overall, and a prep arm has not been taken inside the top five since Jackson Jobe went No. 2 overall in 2021. With a highly projectable 6'4", 190-pound frame, three present plus pitches and good overall command, Hernandez is the type of pitcher who could buck that trend.

Bleacher has your dream coming true.

craviduce wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:36 pm

82birds wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 12:08 pm do we really want a high school pitcher?

excuse that diatribe...I was just trying to explain our very, very limited options.

I rather enjoyed it and learned a lot.
Re: Carlson...
if we draft him, pray he doesn't turn out like our last 1st rounder named Carlson

craviduce wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:42 pm

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:37 pm I'm going to use a term that was coined in the NFL as far as I am aware. Best Available Player.

that Pertains to most drafts and most years, but not every year. Every teams BAP list is going to be different by a Country MILE this season....Which will make for a Chaotic Draft....and I don't think a lot of people on Cards Talk will be happy with our pick....we can't create magic and produce a HOF Bat this draft ...they don't exist...pitcher (even HS) may be the best way to go....or a Highschool SS who just wows the pants off us.

Unless Kilen gets back for Tennessee and goes crazy in the SEC Tourney, Regionals and CWS, we're out of luck with the College Bats

If the season continues to trend as it has, they might get another shot in 2026.

"very, very limited options" sounds bad bad bad considering we pick #5

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:49 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:42 pm

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:37 pm I'm going to use a term that was coined in the NFL as far as I am aware. Best Available Player.

that Pertains to most drafts and most years, but not every year. Every teams BAP list is going to be different by a Country MILE this season....Which will make for a Chaotic Draft....and I don't think a lot of people on Cards Talk will be happy with our pick....we can't create magic and produce a HOF Bat this draft ...they don't exist...pitcher (even HS) may be the best way to go....or a Highschool SS who just wows the pants off us.

Unless Kilen gets back for Tennessee and goes crazy in the SEC Tourney, Regionals and CWS, we're out of luck with the College Bats

If the season continues to trend as it has, they might get another shot in 2026.

the best we can pick is #10th in 2026. No lottery chance this time around.

82birds wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:50 pm "very, very limited options" sounds bad bad bad considering we pick #5

yeah...that's what I was trying to portray.

now, if you ignore the 1st round issues....the draft is deeper than last year from rounds 2-10....maybe we'll be able to draft taller players this year

craviduce wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:56 pm

82birds wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:50 pm "very, very limited options" sounds bad bad bad considering we pick #5

yeah...that's what I was trying to portray.

now, if you ignore the 1st round issues....the draft is deeper than last year from rounds 2-10....maybe we'll be able to draft taller players this year

This is depressing.

Alex Reyes Cy Young wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:59 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:56 pm

82birds wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:50 pm "very, very limited options" sounds bad bad bad considering we pick #5

yeah...that's what I was trying to portray.

now, if you ignore the 1st round issues....the draft is deeper than last year from rounds 2-10....maybe we'll be able to draft taller players this year

This is depressing.

if you deal with it now, you'll be able to accept the pick come July...

at least, that's what I keep telling myself. It's how I talked myself into the Carlson and Hernandez pick (I loathe picking HS Short Stops....I still have Kozma PTSD), and I listed the industry wide narrative on HS Pitchers....I'm fine with picking them now. I'm having trouble committing to other highschool SS outside of Carlson and Holliday....to raw, too much possible upside...big gamble.

I won't be fine with a # 25 type college player being selected 5th.....and the potential 1st round picks are mostly #25 ranked players....so that's the scary part....indeed....

If I was under the gun, and made to pick a "Reach" pick at # 5...I'd go Witherspoon, and I wouldn't be upset with the pick. I wouldn't be ecstatic...but still happy.

craviduce wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:56 pm

82birds wrote: ↑10 Apr 2025 13:50 pm "very, very limited options" sounds bad bad bad considering we pick #5

yeah...that's what I was trying to portray.

now, if you ignore the 1st round issues....the draft is deeper than last year from rounds 2-10....maybe we'll be able to draft taller players this year

okay, that had me ROFL

It was funny, going into last season all you heard was how bad the draft class at the top was going to be. Fast forward and it's looking like an all time great. It's like the exact reverse this year. It was getting hyped as looking great pre-season but it's looking awful now. I think weather has a lot to do with it though. It seems to be cold and wet everywhere all the time. Still a couple months to shake out though so we will see if there are any late movers.

I always read through this thread, but really don't comment, because i don't know much about college and HS players. But, i really do appreciate the insights in this thread (especially Duce). My only comment/observation is; isn't it WAY too early to project who the top 10 will be?