McMichael files for arbitration

[Frank Barone]

The McMichael trade to Seattle for Shane Wright idea intrigues me a bit. I don't know how Wright's name got into the rumor mill to begin with, although his goals/assists numbers were not great. But the Blues have too many LWs and not enough RWs and Seattle seems light on LWs, so a trade match may make sense on at least some level.

I know Wright's FO percentage is low, but at age 22 that should not mean he must be moved to RW. His pre-draft scouting analyses were excellent, although his skating speed has never been high end. If the contract negotiation with McMichael becomes difficult, would the Blues pivot to a trade like this?

[bluetunehead]

The McMichael trade to Seattle for Shane Wright idea intrigues me a bit. I don't know how Wright's name got into the rumor mill to begin with, although his goals/assists numbers were not great. But the Blues have too many LWs and not enough RWs and Seattle seems light on LWs, so a trade match may make sense on at least some level.

I know Wright's FO percentage is low, but at age 22 that should not mean he must be moved to RW. His pre-draft scouting analyses were excellent, although his skating speed has never been high end. If the contract negotiation with McMichael becomes difficult, would the Blues pivot to a trade like this?

I’d do that for sure. McMichael is a decent player but so is Wright, and he’d give us another RH option in the forward group. They’re both questionable as centers, but Wright probably warrants a longer leash there than McMichael. Washington fans were pretty adamant that he’s not cut out for it at a high level.

[TruBlueFan_1970]

The McMichael trade to Seattle for Shane Wright idea intrigues me a bit. I don't know how Wright's name got into the rumor mill to begin with, although his goals/assists numbers were not great. But the Blues have too many LWs and not enough RWs and Seattle seems light on LWs, so a trade match may make sense on at least some level.

I know Wright's FO percentage is low, but at age 22 that should not mean he must be moved to RW. His pre-draft scouting analyses were excellent, although his skating speed has never been high end. If the contract negotiation with McMichael becomes difficult, would the Blues pivot to a trade like this?

I’d do that for sure. McMichael is a decent player but so is Wright, and he’d give us another RH option in the forward group. They’re both questionable as centers, but Wright probably warrants a longer leash there than McMichael. Washington fans were pretty adamant that he’s not cut out for it at a high level.

I’d do it too, but with assurances on signing. I would guess Seattle would want CM locked up before they trade for him, and the Blues a commitment or signed contract from Wright coming the other way. If I were either GM, I would want assurances I’m getting a signed player.

[skilles]

If they do a one year deal now on McMichael, they will have Neighbours, Mailloux, McMichael, Hofer and Snuggurud all RFAs after this season. Steen will have his work cut out for him.

The Blues have 10.2MM in space now. Likely drops to around 4MM after they do something with McMichael. So about 100MM in contract commitments so far for this season after McMichael signs.

Cap goes up likely from 104 to 120MM next year is that what they are saying? Is that right?

Only expiring contracts out of the Blues 100MM is Suter at 4, Carlo at 4, Berggren at 2, Dube at 1, Binnington at 6. Round numbers. So going into the season a year from now the Blues will have 83MM in contracts committed.

Therefore Blues would have about 36-37MM in space next offseason to ink deals with McMichael, Neighbours, Hofer, Mailloux, Snuggy.

Obviously a few other things can change. But that's the current situation very roughly laid out.

113 next year

[TruBlueFan_1970]

If they do a one year deal now on McMichael, they will have Neighbours, Mailloux, McMichael, Hofer and Snuggurud all RFAs after this season. Steen will have his work cut out for him.

The Blues have 10.2MM in space now. Likely drops to around 4MM after they do something with McMichael. So about 100MM in contract commitments so far for this season after McMichael signs.

Cap goes up likely from 104 to 120MM next year is that what they are saying? Is that right?

Only expiring contracts out of the Blues 100MM is Suter at 4, Carlo at 4, Berggren at 2, Dube at 1, Binnington at 6. Round numbers. So going into the season a year from now the Blues will have 83MM in contracts committed.

Therefore Blues would have about 36-37MM in space next offseason to ink deals with McMichael, Neighbours, Hofer, Mailloux, Snuggy.

Obviously a few other things can change. But that's the current situation very roughly laid out.

113 next year

And I think UMR forgot about Krug in his expiring contracts. Maybe the math is right, but I didn’t see Krug above. Not including whatever McMichael signs for, Puckpedia shows us with $52.5m for next season.

[UMR-alum-05]

If they do a one year deal now on McMichael, they will have Neighbours, Mailloux, McMichael, Hofer and Snuggurud all RFAs after this season. Steen will have his work cut out for him.

The Blues have 10.2MM in space now. Likely drops to around 4MM after they do something with McMichael. So about 100MM in contract commitments so far for this season after McMichael signs.

Cap goes up likely from 104 to 120MM next year is that what they are saying? Is that right?

Only expiring contracts out of the Blues 100MM is Suter at 4, Carlo at 4, Berggren at 2, Dube at 1, Binnington at 6. Round numbers. So going into the season a year from now the Blues will have 83MM in contracts committed.

Therefore Blues would have about 36-37MM in space next offseason to ink deals with McMichael, Neighbours, Hofer, Mailloux, Snuggy.

Obviously a few other things can change. But that's the current situation very roughly laid out.

113 next year

Ok so the Blues will have about 30MM in space give or take to sign those 5 RFA players plus make whatever other moves they want/need to make.

McMichael at 6, Neighbours at 5, Snuggerud at 8, Hofer at 6, Mailloux at 5. That's 30. Those are wild guesses at this time, but just goes to show, Blues don't have a ton of cap space to throw around here. They need to be ready for next off-season.

I definitely don't have every number perfect.

[UMR-alum-05]

If they do a one year deal now on McMichael, they will have Neighbours, Mailloux, McMichael, Hofer and Snuggurud all RFAs after this season. Steen will have his work cut out for him.

The Blues have 10.2MM in space now. Likely drops to around 4MM after they do something with McMichael. So about 100MM in contract commitments so far for this season after McMichael signs.

Cap goes up likely from 104 to 120MM next year is that what they are saying? Is that right?

Only expiring contracts out of the Blues 100MM is Suter at 4, Carlo at 4, Berggren at 2, Dube at 1, Binnington at 6. Round numbers. So going into the season a year from now the Blues will have 83MM in contracts committed.

Therefore Blues would have about 36-37MM in space next offseason to ink deals with McMichael, Neighbours, Hofer, Mailloux, Snuggy.

Obviously a few other things can change. But that's the current situation very roughly laid out.

113 next year

And I think UMR forgot about Krug in his expiring contracts. Maybe the math is right, but I didn’t see Krug above. Not including whatever McMichael signs for, Puckpedia shows us with $52.5m for next season.

Yeah my math isn't right. It assumes the contracts for all the RFAs in a year are all additive. The increase for those players year over year is the only thing that's additive.

My numbers paint a tighter picture than it really is by 20-25 million in cap.

My bad. Disregard. I'll make a new post and clean it up

[TruBlueFan_1970]

If they do a one year deal now on McMichael, they will have Neighbours, Mailloux, McMichael, Hofer and Snuggurud all RFAs after this season. Steen will have his work cut out for him.

The Blues have 10.2MM in space now. Likely drops to around 4MM after they do something with McMichael. So about 100MM in contract commitments so far for this season after McMichael signs.

Cap goes up likely from 104 to 120MM next year is that what they are saying? Is that right?

Only expiring contracts out of the Blues 100MM is Suter at 4, Carlo at 4, Berggren at 2, Dube at 1, Binnington at 6. Round numbers. So going into the season a year from now the Blues will have 83MM in contracts committed.

Therefore Blues would have about 36-37MM in space next offseason to ink deals with McMichael, Neighbours, Hofer, Mailloux, Snuggy.

Obviously a few other things can change. But that's the current situation very roughly laid out.

113 next year

And I think UMR forgot about Krug in his expiring contracts. Maybe the math is right, but I didn’t see Krug above. Not including whatever McMichael signs for, Puckpedia shows us with $52.5m for next season.

Yeah my math isn't right. It assumes the contracts for all the RFAs in a year are all additive. The increase for those players year over year is the only thing that's additive.

My numbers paint a tighter picture than it really is by 20-25 million in cap.

My bad. Disregard. I'll make a new post and clean it up

And the $52.5m I saw was not for this season, but for 27/28, which I think is what you were looking at.

[UMR-alum-05]

Let me try this again here. Going to keep it round numbers.

This season upcoming:

Thomas 8
Buch 8
Holloway 7.75
McTavish 7
McMichael (unknown, assume 6.25)
Suter 4
Neighbours 3.75
Torp 2.5
Johnston 2
Berggren 2
Snuggurud 1
Dvorsky 1
Walker 1
Finley 1

54.25MM for forwards.

Broberg 8
Parayko 6.5
Krug 6.5
Fowler 6
Carlo 4
Mailloux 1
Tucker 1
Lindstein 1

35MM for defense.

Hofer 4
Binnington 6

10MM for goalies.

That's basically 100MM as we sit here today with a cap of 104MM.

Main contracts that would drop in a year are Suter, Berggren, Binner, Krug and Carlo. That's 22.5MM removed, pending resigning or other maneuvers. Leaving 77.5 committed.

Then will come next offseason the RFA adjustments a year from now...

Neighbours likely goes 3.75 to 5
McMichael from 6.25 to 7
Mailloux from 1 to 5
Snuggurud from 1 to 8
Hofer from 4 to 7

The '26-'27 numbers for these guys are all in the 77.5MM figure above. Total increase next offseason for them is 16MM.

The Blues can keep/extend all their RFAs as I have it shown and they will be sitting with about a 94MM roster against a 113MM cap exactly a year from now. Plenty of space to maneuver if Stillman and co. want to spend money.

[TruBlueFan_1970]

Let me try this again here. Going to keep it round numbers.

This season upcoming:

Thomas 8
Buch 8
Holloway 7.75
McTavish 7
McMichael (unknown, assume 6.25)
Suter 4
Neighbours 3.75
Torp 2.5
Johnston 2
Berggren 2
Snuggurud 1
Dvorsky 1
Walker 1
Finley 1

54.25MM for forwards.

Broberg 8
Parayko 6.5
Krug 6.5
Fowler 6
Carlo 4
Mailloux 1
Tucker 1
Lindstein 1

35MM for defense.

Hofer 4
Binnington 6

10MM for goalies.

That's basically 100MM as we sit here today with a cap of 104MM.

Main contracts that would drop in a year are Suter, Berggren, Binner, Krug and Carlo. That's 22.5MM removed, pending resigning or other maneuvers. Leaving 77.5 committed.

Then will come next offseason the RFA adjustments a year from now...

Neighbours likely goes 3.75 to 5
McMichael from 6.25 to 7
Mailloux from 1 to 5
Snuggurud from 1 to 8
Hofer from 4 to 7

The '26-'27 numbers for these guys are all in the 77.5MM figure above. Total increase next offseason for them is 16MM.

The Blues can keep/extend all their RFAs as I have it shown and they will be sitting with about a 94MM roster against a 113MM cap exactly a year from now. Plenty of space to maneuver if Stillman and co. want to spend money.

The only thing to remember in your math is that they will need to fill the vacated roster spots (5-6) players. You would hope a couple would be with young, cost controlled players like Stenberg, Jiricek and maybe a Carbs. But they would still have close to $15-16m per your numbers to fill 3-4 spots if the young players come on board. I think the Blues are in good shape cap wise. Talent wise to become a contender again….not so sure the lineup above accomplishes that. Lots can happen between now and then though.

[zoiks]

Let me try this again here. Going to keep it round numbers.

This season upcoming:

Thomas 8
Buch 8
Holloway 7.75
McTavish 7
McMichael (unknown, assume 6.25)
Suter 4
Neighbours 3.75
Torp 2.5
Johnston 2
Berggren 2
Snuggurud 1
Dvorsky 1
Walker 1
Finley 1

54.25MM for forwards.

Broberg 8
Parayko 6.5
Krug 6.5
Fowler 6
Carlo 4
Mailloux 1
Tucker 1
Lindstein 1

35MM for defense.

Hofer 4
Binnington 6

10MM for goalies.

That's basically 100MM as we sit here today with a cap of 104MM.

Main contracts that would drop in a year are Suter, Berggren, Binner, Krug and Carlo. That's 22.5MM removed, pending resigning or other maneuvers. Leaving 77.5 committed.

Then will come next offseason the RFA adjustments a year from now...

Neighbours likely goes 3.75 to 5
McMichael from 6.25 to 7
Mailloux from 1 to 5
Snuggurud from 1 to 8
Hofer from 4 to 7

The '26-'27 numbers for these guys are all in the 77.5MM figure above. Total increase next offseason for them is 16MM.

The Blues can keep/extend all their RFAs as I have it shown and they will be sitting with about a 94MM roster against a 113MM cap exactly a year from now. Plenty of space to maneuver if Stillman and co. want to spend money.

Thanks for this. The Blues definitely don’t have any cap issues coming up. I’d argue the team also doesn’t have any bad contracts. Buchnevich would get around $7m as a UFA forward with a history of scoring at least 20 goals per season, so he’s only slightly overpaid. I guess Binnington’s contract isn’t ideal, but it only has 1 year left.

[skilles]

If you guys go to puckpedia and use Gmail mode it has a pretty cool layout for this kind of thing.

[UMR-alum-05]

I was just trying to look a year ahead and make sure that if the Blues weren't careful now that they would have a problem in a year with all these RFAs.

Looks like they can easily keep them all and have cash to fill out the roster based on what I pulled together.

[STL fan in MN]

I hope this is just stalling to get the deal done because arb is just for a one year deal. He'll be more expesive next year if he's as good as we hoped.

Arbitration can result in a 1 or 2 year contract. The party that doesn’t file gets to choose the length. That said, McMichael is 2 years away from UFA status so the Blues would clearly choose 1 year.

But around 90-95% of players that file for arbitration come to an agreement before the hearing. This will just give him and the Blues a drop dead date they need to come to a deal by to avoid an arbitration hearing.

If the party that doesn't file gets to choose the length why wouldn't the Blues choose two years?

I would hope either submitted number would be less than multiple years at $6-7+ mil being speculated about.

If I'm the Blues there's not enough of a track record with McM to feel good about handing out a long-term extention largely on faith.

MN already said it - 2 years takes him straight to UFA. By selecting 1 year, McMichael would be an RFA after next season.

Six of one, half a dozen of the other then.

I want to see him prove it here before tying up significant dollars in him.

What? No. A team would always take the 1 year over 2 in that situation.

That said, I doubt it actually gets to arbitration. But I also doubt they do just a 1 year deal. I can see the desire to see how he looks in a Bluenote first before committing but that was basically part of the deal when they made the trade. And is why WSH was good with moving him.

Kick the can down the road and he likely just costs even more. He looks like he’s going to probably fit on our 2nd line and the Cap will just be higher a year from now.

[Cahokanut]

This is one that I think could make it to Arbitration. If McMichael's is expecting 7 mil a year.

I think the motive of picking him up was to move Kyrou without being laughed at by the return. Like Barbs to Vegas.

I can't see the Blues offering over 5. I really think over 4 is to much and I don't see McM. in the future plans of the Blues

All that can change if he comes out hitting, grinding and scoring while playing a third line role.
But I don't see this player doing that.

[TAFKAP]

I hope this is just stalling to get the deal done because arb is just for a one year deal. He'll be more expesive next year if he's as good as we hoped.

Arbitration can result in a 1 or 2 year contract. The party that doesn’t file gets to choose the length. That said, McMichael is 2 years away from UFA status so the Blues would clearly choose 1 year.

But around 90-95% of players that file for arbitration come to an agreement before the hearing. This will just give him and the Blues a drop dead date they need to come to a deal by to avoid an arbitration hearing.

That's kind of what I figured, that he was buying time with an end date. I thought he was 1 year away from UFA, thanks for clarifying.