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sp25 wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 16:49 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 12:11 pm “Comparing minor league K rates among former + current
@Cardinals
top prospects:

Nolan Gorman — 27.3%
Jordan Walker — 22.1%
Dylan Carlson — 21.3%
Oscar Taveras — 13.1%

Current top prospects:

JJ Wetherholt — 14.1%
Rainiel Rodriguez — 16.3%”

Would not have expected that K rate for Taveras. What might have been

Even Taveras was a dud in his short showing in the majors. In 248 plate appearances, he hit .239 with a .590 OPS while also playing pretty poor defense. He did only strike out in 14.9% of his MLB at bats though, so that was consistent with his minor league stats.

The Cards could really use a guy that just hits the ground running and turns into an absolute stud. It has been a long time and we are certainly due.

I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:42 pm I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?

He’s not a Pujols….but he appears to be much better than most of the posers we’ve been bringing up for a decade.

Goldfan wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:47 pm

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:42 pm I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?

He’s not a Pujols….but he appears to be much better than most of the posers we’ve been bringing up for a decade.

100% agree there, Goldfan

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 13:05 pm Careful. Shady might fall in love

He only seems to pull for the underdog or long-shot for some odd reason.

Goldfan wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 12:11 pm “Comparing minor league K rates among former + current
@Cardinals
top prospects:

Nolan Gorman — 27.3%
Jordan Walker — 22.1%
Dylan Carlson — 21.3%
Oscar Taveras — 13.1%

Current top prospects:

JJ Wetherholt — 14.1%
Rainiel Rodriguez — 16.3%”

Of all the complex metrics thrown out around here, these simple numbers might end up being more telling than any of the others.

For context: miLB strikeout rates for players on Cards 40-man roster

10.2% Fermin
10.4% Arenado
11.0% Church
12.4% Prieto
12.5% Torres
14.1% Wetherholt
16.0% Scott
17.3% Burleson
17.8% Donovan
17.9% Nootbar
18.4% Bernal
19.9% Herrera
20.2% Winn
22.1% Walker
22.9% Pages
22.9% Crooks
23.7% Saggese
27.3% Gorman
29.5% Baez (20.6% in 2025)

Goldfan wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:47 pm

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:42 pm I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?

He’s not a Pujols….but he appears to be much better than most of the posers we’ve been bringing up for a decade.

I agree. I am no professional scout but I prefer seeing the hit tool rating higher than the power number. Both of course is wonderful. JJ is 65 hit 55 power.

I really hope that holds.

I’m almost as excited to see how Rainel performs this year as JJ.
If Walker can just figure it out and Scott II can become at least a league average hitter our future looks bright.

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:42 pm I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?

Pedroia averaged 5 bWAR per year and won rookie of the year & an MVP.

Zobrist wasn’t a regular until he was 28. That would be an awful outcome. That would mean he’s a really good player for someone else after being a bust for the Cardinals.

Knoblauch also averaged 5 bWAR per season from age 22-30

So yeah, pretty sure people would be thrilled if JJ wins rookie of the year, makes 4 All Star teams, and maybe a title or two along the way!

AZ_Cardsfan wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:42 pm I am also excited to see what JJ can do in the majors. And I am not making any predictions. I just wonder if he isn't the second coming of Pujols will this forum be OK? Is it OK if he plays a solid 2B/3B and hits 270/345/450 795 OPS for a career line? Maybe a 3 WAR per year player for 12 years?

Say a Ben Zobrist or Chuck Knoblauch type of player? Pedroia?

You can bet the first time he has a slump the we hate prospects and love over priced mid tier aging veterans crowd will be swarming in to say he’s another over hyped cardinals prospect the cheap ownership are trying to sell the rebuild around

Batting titles and George Brett HOF comparisons.
Right on.

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:52 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 13:05 pm Careful. Shady might fall in love

He only seems to pull for the underdog or long-shot for some odd reason.

He got burned on the Dylan Carlson train.

AnExParrot wrote: ↑31 Dec 2025 09:37 am

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:52 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 13:05 pm Careful. Shady might fall in love

He only seems to pull for the underdog or long-shot for some odd reason.

He got burned on the Dylan Carlson train.

Haha I guess so. Must’ve been heartbreaking.

I’ll admit I was fooled by DC myself.

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑31 Dec 2025 09:45 am

AnExParrot wrote: ↑31 Dec 2025 09:37 am

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:52 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 13:05 pm Careful. Shady might fall in love

He only seems to pull for the underdog or long-shot for some odd reason.

He got burned on the Dylan Carlson train.

Haha I guess so. Must’ve been heartbreaking.

I’ll admit I was fooled by DC myself.

DC looked the part, but was physically weak and no drive

Goldfan wrote: ↑31 Dec 2025 09:58 am

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑31 Dec 2025 09:45 am

AnExParrot wrote: ↑31 Dec 2025 09:37 am

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 18:52 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑30 Dec 2025 13:05 pm Careful. Shady might fall in love

He only seems to pull for the underdog or long-shot for some odd reason.

He got burned on the Dylan Carlson train.

Haha I guess so. Must’ve been heartbreaking.

I’ll admit I was fooled by DC myself.

DC looked the part, but was physically weak and no drive

The “no drive” infers mental weakness too. That’s why I find it hard to get overly excited about prospects in general. There are plenty of metrics and peripherals that suggest high level success, but without a metric that measures mental toughness, resiliency, and drive to succeed, the other stuff can be completely meaningless. It’s why Donovan is a solid player and DC and Walker are busts.

I know they have to evaluate physical prowess and skillset somehow, but maybe they need to invest more of that scouting money into more advanced psychological analysis. Every job has talented people that don’t perform to their capabilities or intelligence but are instead carried by the harder working mentally stable people.