Cardinals Spending in 2030 - A poll

[An Old Friend]

They were 6th in payroll in 2019, right around 162M

Other than that, they've been consistently in the 9-15 range with a handful of years between 15-20.

In 2024, they upped the payroll to 175M, but by then, that was only good for 12th.

In terms of ranking I'd guess they'll work their way back to 12-18 with a few outlier years here and there. And 12-18 might be a 170-190m payroll by then. Like others have said we'll have to see what happens after the cba.

6 in 2019
10 in 2018
10 in 2013
9 in 2012
6 in 2005
8 in 2003
9 in 2001

Two decades basically bouncing between a top 6-12 payroll.

[mattmitchl44]

Do you really think BDWJr, who will be nearing 90 yrs old then, will wait until 2030 to start spending?

I did not intend to imply that it would take until 2030 to start spending.

I just set it at 2030 to be, I think, well clear of the rebuilding phase and when their spending will be at some new steady state, whatever that is.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

Which of these choices best describes where you think the Cardinals' spending on the ML payroll will be in 2030:

1) They'll be spending like the Dodgers (maybe because you think the team will have been sold to another Steve Cohen?)!

2) They'll be spending well over $200 million and have a payroll in the Top 10 in MLB (10th in 2025 was $210 million).

3) They'll be back to spending consistent with their historical highs (~$180 million) wherever that ranks them.

4) Due to revenue issues, they'll be spending a bit less than their historical highs (e.g., ~$140-$150 million).

5) They'll be spending down with the small market teams (like the Guardians or less).

FWIW - I'll take #3.

IMO

Number 4. DeWitt III mentioned on Slaten a few years back about putting in what they get or something to that effect, so I personally took that as a direct communication to fans lower payroll.

Couple that with Bloom who was developed and learned under the Rays ownership and leadership to manage through minors, etc.. All signs to the Cardinals trending to a lower payroll team.

I think under Bloom you'll see more early trades especially players who start to hit arb, building a flywheel to continually infuse talent back in. In the event they hit a generational player they will identify early and lock up to a long-term deal.

If the event they are surging that year, you may see them take on modest salary for low talented prospect. Like what the Rays did with Cruz a few years back, well more than a few lol.

[rockondlouie]

Do you really think BDWJr, who will be nearing 90 yrs old then, will wait until 2030 to start spending?

I did not intend to imply that it would take until 2030 to start spending.

I just set it at 2030 to be, I think, well clear of the rebuilding phase and when their spending will be at some new steady state, whatever that is.

Gotcha

I think he'll start gradually upping payroll once the new CBA is in place and attendance rebounds.

But getting back to that $180+M range will only occur if the team is winning (re: back to making the playoffs) which will result in fans coming back and attendance once again approaching 3M.

[Imperial Capitalist]

The average of payroll positions 8-12 was ~ $207 for 2025, which was about 17% higher than 2022's numbers (~$177). Applying that to the future...

Even if rampant uncertainty somewhat stifles payroll growth this off-season and in 2027, should the game end up resembling a just slightly less cra$y version of itself by 2030, the cover charge to enter the top 10 or 12 could, nonetheless, push beyond $240MM.

If that comes to pass, the days of Top 10 payrolls for STL are finished. A p/r of ~ $170 - 180MM in five years [my vote] likely has us 15th - 18th in the sport, with Bloom's minor league machine hopefully allowing us to punch well above our weight.

The true Wild Card in all of this is the continued health of BDW Jr. When we think of "the Cardinals" spending to a given level, it's Jr we're thinking of agreeing to do that. If III is in control...?

[Goldfan]

2024
Baseball Event
347,925
Broadcast
166,094
Retail
47,754
Other
33, 657

This is from the Braves Earning report as a public company
As you see the Baseball Event(81 home games) is by far the largest contribution
The National TV distribution is roughly 90-100mil of the total Broadcast contribution

The bottom line is the Butt need to be back in Busch for BDW to achieve his lofty max revenues and those butts aren’t coming back to Busch without stars and winning. So whatever year BDW wants to start paying for stars and winning again is when his financial house will correct itself.

[juan good eye]

Do you really think BDWJr, who will be nearing 90 yrs old then, will wait until 2030 to start spending?

I did not intend to imply that it would take until 2030 to start spending.

I just set it at 2030 to be, I think, well clear of the rebuilding phase and when their spending will be at some new steady state, whatever that is.

Gotcha

I think he'll start gradually upping payroll once the new CBA is in place and attendance rebounds.

But getting back to that $180+M range will only occur if the team is winning (re: back to making the playoffs) which will result in fans coming back and attendance once again approaching 3M.

They don’t need to dish out big dollars until they have players worth spending it on. Mo never got that figured out.

Spending on decline phase stars (Nado) or average-good talent (Contreras) is not the best use of somewhat limited funds.

[clemonsonroots]

I choose f- the world as we know it won't be here, but if it somehow is...they are going the ways of the low market teams...hence the Bloom hire.

[Cardinals1964]

Which of these choices best describes where you think the Cardinals' spending on the ML payroll will be in 2030:

1) They'll be spending like the Dodgers (maybe because you think the team will have been sold to another Steve Cohen?)!

2) They'll be spending well over $200 million and have a payroll in the Top 10 in MLB (10th in 2025 was $210 million).

3) They'll be back to spending consistent with their historical highs (~$180 million) wherever that ranks them.

4) Due to revenue issues, they'll be spending a bit less than their historical highs (e.g., ~$140-$150 million).

5) They'll be spending down with the small market teams (like the Guardians or less).

FWIW - I'll take #3.

I say middle of the pact. Your $$$ don’t mean anything. $200 million might be middle of the pact by 2030.

[mattmitchl44]

The count so far is about:

1) - 0
2) - 3
3) - 10
4) - 3
5) - 2

[sikeston bulldog2]

The count so far is about:

1) - 0
2) - 3
3) - 10
4) - 3
5) - 2

I misspoke. I meant 2b.

Does that skew the results any.

[mattmitchl44]

The count so far is about:

1) - 0
2) - 3
3) - 10
4) - 3
5) - 2

I misspoke. I meant 2b.

Does that skew the results any.

Nah. What you described I think was more in line with my intent with #3 anyway. $200 million isn't going to be Top 10 in 2030 anyway, so it is more like #3 than #2.

[Boooyah]

#1 for sure

[sikeston bulldog2]

The count so far is about:

1) - 0
2) - 3
3) - 10
4) - 3
5) - 2

I misspoke. I meant 2b.

Does that skew the results any.

Nah. What you described I think was more in line with my intent with #3 anyway. $200 million isn't going to be Top 10 in 2030 anyway, so it is more like #3 than #2.

Ok thanx. I think in five spending years, going from where we are now, 200 M will be in the ball park. I expect minimal spending till after the negotiations. Then I see a strong uptick towards 200 M.

[ScotchMIrish]

With this tv deal and mediocre attendance how can they spend at a high level?

[Goldfan]

With this tv deal and mediocre attendance how can they spend at a high level?

BDW gets a loan, spends on some stars and winning, and FANS return. Fans aren’t returning to watch a AAA club