A prospect ranked around #50 in MLB has an estimated 5% to 10% chance of becoming an MLB All-Star.

[mattmitchl44]

Just something to keep in mind when risk adjusted for projected future production of "prospects".

"A prospect ranked around #50 in MLB has an estimated 5% to 10% chance of becoming an MLB All-Star. While the chance of a prospect becoming a regular MLB player is relatively high, the probability of reaching "All-Star" status is much lower and drops significantly outside the top 20.
Breakdown of Success Rates
Becoming an All-Star: Historically, only about 11-13% of all Top 100 prospects become everyday players, and less than 10% become "stars" or perennial All-Stars. For the specific range around rank #50, the odds are likely closer to a 5-10% chance of one or more All-Star seasons in their career.
Becoming a Solid MLB Player: The #50 rank is often associated with a "50 Future Value (FV)" grade, which Baseball America defines as a "solid regular for a competitive team". One study indicated position players with 50 FV grades turned into stars only 9.9% of the time, though they had a good chance of having some form of MLB career.
Overall Top 100 Rates: About 70% of all top 100 prospects ultimately fail to have a sustained, impactful MLB career. The success rate drops off noticeably after the top 20, with prospects ranked 41-100 having fairly similar, lower success rates. "

I've always wondered what a 50 or 45 or 70 FV prospect looked like. I know those numbers mean something, and the higher the better, but where did say...Aaron Judge rate on the FV scale. Or Brendan Donovan.

The last time Judge was ranked on FG in 2017, he was FV 55. Donovan, in 2022, was FV 45.

FG on FV:

What is FV?

FV stands for Future Value, and it’s the way we distill each player’s scouting evaluation into a single expression. Broadly stated, Future Value is a grade on the 20-80 scale that maps to anticipated annual WAR production during the player’s first six years of service. But there’s also quite a bit of nuance underlying that definition, so let’s break down its components.

The 20-80 scale is used by scouts and team analysts to evaluate prospects’ individual tools, as well as their entire future projection. The center of the scale (50) represents major-league average with each whole grade away from 50 representing a standard deviation away from it. The industry also uses grades of 45 and 55 as a means of assessment because there are so many players, fastballs, throwing arms, etc. hovering right around average that it’s necessary to be more granular at that point on the talent curve. It’s rare for a scout to use grades like 65 or 35 because that level of visual precision on those parts of the curve isn’t all that feasible. Analysts are more likely to use those grades since they’re looking at a Trackman readout or some other form of objective measure and that is literally where someone’s exit velos or curveball spin might be on the curve.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-fan ... ng-primer/

[Strummer Jones]

Just something to keep in mind when risk adjusted for projected future production of "prospects".

"A prospect ranked around #50 in MLB has an estimated 5% to 10% chance of becoming an MLB All-Star. While the chance of a prospect becoming a regular MLB player is relatively high, the probability of reaching "All-Star" status is much lower and drops significantly outside the top 20.
Breakdown of Success Rates
Becoming an All-Star: Historically, only about 11-13% of all Top 100 prospects become everyday players, and less than 10% become "stars" or perennial All-Stars. For the specific range around rank #50, the odds are likely closer to a 5-10% chance of one or more All-Star seasons in their career.
Becoming a Solid MLB Player: The #50 rank is often associated with a "50 Future Value (FV)" grade, which Baseball America defines as a "solid regular for a competitive team". One study indicated position players with 50 FV grades turned into stars only 9.9% of the time, though they had a good chance of having some form of MLB career.
Overall Top 100 Rates: About 70% of all top 100 prospects ultimately fail to have a sustained, impactful MLB career. The success rate drops off noticeably after the top 20, with prospects ranked 41-100 having fairly similar, lower success rates. "

I've always wondered what a 50 or 45 or 70 FV prospect looked like. I know those numbers mean something, and the higher the better, but where did say...Aaron Judge rate on the FV scale. Or Brendan Donovan.

The last time Judge was ranked on FG in 2017, he was FV 55. Donovan, in 2022, was FV 45.

FG on FV:

What is FV?

FV stands for Future Value, and it’s the way we distill each player’s scouting evaluation into a single expression. Broadly stated, Future Value is a grade on the 20-80 scale that maps to anticipated annual WAR production during the player’s first six years of service. But there’s also quite a bit of nuance underlying that definition, so let’s break down its components.

The 20-80 scale is used by scouts and team analysts to evaluate prospects’ individual tools, as well as their entire future projection. The center of the scale (50) represents major-league average with each whole grade away from 50 representing a standard deviation away from it. The industry also uses grades of 45 and 55 as a means of assessment because there are so many players, fastballs, throwing arms, etc. hovering right around average that it’s necessary to be more granular at that point on the talent curve. It’s rare for a scout to use grades like 65 or 35 because that level of visual precision on those parts of the curve isn’t all that feasible. Analysts are more likely to use those grades since they’re looking at a Trackman readout or some other form of objective measure and that is literally where someone’s exit velos or curveball spin might be on the curve.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-fan ... ng-primer/

That helps some. I still want more information about it. In a "I would genuinely like to know more" way and not a skeptical way.

So if Judge was last ranked as a 55, what would he grade at now, on 12/5/25? Is that something that can be measured? Like...who in the major leagues now would, as a "finished" player, be considered a 55?

[Carp4Cy]

That's why you need to have more prospects rather than fewer.

You simply cannot balance the ML payroll budget without having a lot of young, cost controlled talent.

So however many spins of the wheel you need to accumulate enough such talent, because not all of them will succeed, is how many you have to take.

not sure you can ever collect enough to come out ahead. Trading 1 all star like Donovan would likely require a return of 10-20 50-100 ranked prospects to result in 1 future all star.

Trading talent for prospects saves money but also reduces risk adjusted expected future annual production. Trading a Donovan for another similar All-star caliber player (maybe adding another prospect to the trade to get someone with more years of control like Pages) has a much higher chance of getting us future All star production.

What we ultimately need is MLB All Star caliber players. They don't have to arrive as prospects. Also the best prospects will still come thru superior drafting and intl signings.

There is a significantly higher chance of high level success in the top 20 vs the 40-100 rankings. But teams rarely trade top 20s before they reach the majors. We have to draft them ourselves or trade for the as existing MLB players.

Of course you can - Milwaukee, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, etc. have all done so. That's fundamentally the only way they could be in the Top 10 in regular season wins over the last decade. They also added some talent by trading for pre-ARB/ARB players from other teams, but generally not ones that were recognized as budding "stars" but more ones that had been overlooked by their teams.

Covered here:

viewtopic.php?t=1518055

But you need what they have shown can be done coupled to the Cardinals ability to eventually spend $170, $175, $180 million in payroll in order to build even better rosters to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, etc.

Bingo. Which begs the question of whether Donovan best falls into the trading for low A level prospects with a 5% chance of becoming an All Star or if Donovan falls into the category of paying him part of that $180M payroll? Or if he falls into a 3rd option of swapping for a similar player worth paying part of that $180M payroll?

There are pros and cons of each scenario. And each comes with its own risk profile.

Well, I've said that I would trade him for the highest-ceilinged, ML-ready or near-ML-ready (AA/AAA) prospect I could get, and I consider that to include guys who may have gotten a brief run in MLB in 2025.

That would be a lot better than the proposal just below this thread showing Donovan for 2 very young Seattle prospects with about 15 combined AA games between them.

[ICCFIM2]

Just something to keep in mind when risk adjusted for projected future production of "prospects".

"A prospect ranked around #50 in MLB has an estimated 5% to 10% chance of becoming an MLB All-Star. While the chance of a prospect becoming a regular MLB player is relatively high, the probability of reaching "All-Star" status is much lower and drops significantly outside the top 20.
Breakdown of Success Rates
Becoming an All-Star: Historically, only about 11-13% of all Top 100 prospects become everyday players, and less than 10% become "stars" or perennial All-Stars. For the specific range around rank #50, the odds are likely closer to a 5-10% chance of one or more All-Star seasons in their career.
Becoming a Solid MLB Player: The #50 rank is often associated with a "50 Future Value (FV)" grade, which Baseball America defines as a "solid regular for a competitive team". One study indicated position players with 50 FV grades turned into stars only 9.9% of the time, though they had a good chance of having some form of MLB career.
Overall Top 100 Rates: About 70% of all top 100 prospects ultimately fail to have a sustained, impactful MLB career. The success rate drops off noticeably after the top 20, with prospects ranked 41-100 having fairly similar, lower success rates. "

I've always wondered what a 50 or 45 or 70 FV prospect looked like. I know those numbers mean something, and the higher the better, but where did say...Aaron Judge rate on the FV scale. Or Brendan Donovan.

The last time Judge was ranked on FG in 2017, he was FV 55. Donovan, in 2022, was FV 45.

FG on FV:

What is FV?

FV stands for Future Value, and it’s the way we distill each player’s scouting evaluation into a single expression. Broadly stated, Future Value is a grade on the 20-80 scale that maps to anticipated annual WAR production during the player’s first six years of service. But there’s also quite a bit of nuance underlying that definition, so let’s break down its components.

The 20-80 scale is used by scouts and team analysts to evaluate prospects’ individual tools, as well as their entire future projection. The center of the scale (50) represents major-league average with each whole grade away from 50 representing a standard deviation away from it. The industry also uses grades of 45 and 55 as a means of assessment because there are so many players, fastballs, throwing arms, etc. hovering right around average that it’s necessary to be more granular at that point on the talent curve. It’s rare for a scout to use grades like 65 or 35 because that level of visual precision on those parts of the curve isn’t all that feasible. Analysts are more likely to use those grades since they’re looking at a Trackman readout or some other form of objective measure and that is literally where someone’s exit velos or curveball spin might be on the curve.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-fan ... ng-primer/

That helps some. I still want more information about it. In a "I would genuinely like to know more" way and not a skeptical way.

So if Judge was last ranked as a 55, what would he grade at now, on 12/5/25? Is that something that can be measured? Like...who in the major leagues now would, as a "finished" player, be considered a 55?

They rate these guys on a scale up to 80, hit, power, run, arm, field, overall. There are not many 80s. For example, Victor Scott is an 80 on run and Masyin Winn is an 80 on arm. I would have to say Judge is going to be 80 hit, 80 power, he was 50 on run in 2017 not sure why that would be better now, so 50 He was a 60 arm and 50 field in the prospect rankings. Since he has a slightly negative defensive WAR at the MLB level, that seems to be a proper ranking for him now. So he would be 80 80 50 60 50. I don't think you just average them out to say what he is overall. Obviously his hit tool is so good, it almost outweighs the other factors entirely. Every team would take him. But, he is not an 80 overall because he is not a gold glove fielder. I would say he would grade out at a 70. But every single team would drool to have him. In 2017, his hit tool was graded 45. He obviously got a lot better...

[Ozziesfan41]

That's why you need to have more prospects rather than fewer.

You simply cannot balance the ML payroll budget without having a lot of young, cost controlled talent.

So however many spins of the wheel you need to accumulate enough such talent, because not all of them will succeed, is how many you have to take.

+1 it’s a smart strategy. The cardinals problem was they would only occasionally develop one starter in the minors with top of the rotation stuff and they would have injury problems and flame out. With the cardinals trying to load up on multiple prospects with top of the rotation stuff it increases the chances one of them develops into a top of the rotation starter. Anyone who is against the cardinals current strategy are pro sustained mediocrity that wins nothing

[juan good eye]

That's why you need to have more prospects rather than fewer.

You simply cannot balance the ML payroll budget without having a lot of young, cost controlled talent.

So however many spins of the wheel you need to accumulate enough such talent, because not all of them will succeed, is how many you have to take.

not sure you can ever collect enough to come out ahead. Trading 1 all star like Donovan would likely require a return of 10-20 50-100 ranked prospects to result in 1 future all star.

Trading talent for prospects saves money but also reduces risk adjusted expected future annual production. Trading a Donovan for another similar All-star caliber player (maybe adding another prospect to the trade to get someone with more years of control like Pages) has a much higher chance of getting us future All star production.

What we ultimately need is MLB All Star caliber players. They don't have to arrive as prospects. Also the best prospects will still come thru superior drafting and intl signings.

There is a significantly higher chance of high level success in the top 20 vs the 40-100 rankings. But teams rarely trade top 20s before they reach the majors. We have to draft them ourselves or trade for the as existing MLB players.

Honestly it won’t matter much until the Cards develop their next generational talent (which is insanely difficult to predict).

Lots of mediocre players are elected to the All Star game once…ahem PDJ

[Jatalk]

So Donovan and all star should return too 20 or higher.

[ScotchMIrish]

Just something to keep in mind when risk adjusted for projected future production of "prospects".

"A prospect ranked around #50 in MLB has an estimated 5% to 10% chance of becoming an MLB All-Star. While the chance of a prospect becoming a regular MLB player is relatively high, the probability of reaching "All-Star" status is much lower and drops significantly outside the top 20.
Breakdown of Success Rates
Becoming an All-Star: Historically, only about 11-13% of all Top 100 prospects become everyday players, and less than 10% become "stars" or perennial All-Stars. For the specific range around rank #50, the odds are likely closer to a 5-10% chance of one or more All-Star seasons in their career.
Becoming a Solid MLB Player: The #50 rank is often associated with a "50 Future Value (FV)" grade, which Baseball America defines as a "solid regular for a competitive team". One study indicated position players with 50 FV grades turned into stars only 9.9% of the time, though they had a good chance of having some form of MLB career.
Overall Top 100 Rates: About 70% of all top 100 prospects ultimately fail to have a sustained, impactful MLB career. The success rate drops off noticeably after the top 20, with prospects ranked 41-100 having fairly similar, lower success rates. "

That's why rebuilds are difficult. After the Royals went to the world series twice they had 8 consecutive seasons without a winning record. Those prospects don't always develop as projected.

[11WSChamps]

Sounds like another (bleep) shoot.

And how many WS have Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa Bay played in let alone won?

[mattmitchl44]

Sounds like another (bleep) shoot.

And how many WS have Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa Bay played in let alone won?

When have Milwaukee, Cleveland, or Tampa Bay been able to spend $170, $175, $180 million on their ML payroll?

How many times does this conversation have to be had.

[11WSChamps]

Sounds like another (bleep) shoot.

And how many WS have Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa Bay played in let alone won?

When have Milwaukee, Cleveland, or Tampa Bay been able to spend $170, $175, $180 million on their ML payroll?

How many times does this conversation have to be had.

How many times are you going to defend something that may never happen.

The OP are hard numbers.

We don't know what the payroll numbers are going to be and neither do the owners until some sort of resolution is made if any with the coming CBA.

Who knows. If the CBA isnt favorable I can see this ownership group looking ro sell and then its anybodys guess.

[mattmitchl44]

Sounds like another (bleep) shoot.

And how many WS have Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa Bay played in let alone won?

When have Milwaukee, Cleveland, or Tampa Bay been able to spend $170, $175, $180 million on their ML payroll?

How many times does this conversation have to be had.

How many times are you going to defend something that may never happen.

The OP are hard numbers.

We don't know what the payroll numbers are going to be and neither do the owners until some sort of resolution is made if any with the coming CBA.

Who knows. If the CBA isnt favorable I can see this ownership group looking ro sell and then its anybodys guess.

Sure, we don't know what the owners are going to do. You can never know the future.

But what we DO KNOW is that - even WITH a $170, $175, $180 million payroll - the Cardinals can't compete on anything approaching a remotely even playing field with the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Mets, Astros, Braves, etc. without having A LOT of young, talented, cost controlled players.

If you assume that they aren't going to have a $170, $175, $180 million payroll, that just means that need EVEN MORE young, talented, cost controlled players in order to actually compete.

So, either way, the answer right now is still the same - an all-out effort to rebuild their depth in young, talented, cost controlled players.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

It feels like OP doesn't want to trade Donovan because the odds are prospects we receive won't become AS caliber. The odds too low. Well, lets consider:

What is Donovans value to us? In reality as far as comopeting for a title he is of no value to STL. This team will not be in contention most likely any sooner than he will be a free agent. So we are trading nothing of value to US.

Prospects - are potential value. That is more than no value. And rolling the dice maybe we land a true star with years of control.

So we deal something that is no value to us for possible massive value if we are lucky. Kinda a no brainer and why everyone is behind this idea.

[Carp4Cy]

It feels like OP doesn't want to trade Donovan because the odds are prospects we receive won't become AS caliber. The odds too low. Well, lets consider:

What is Donovans value to us? In reality as far as comopeting for a title he is of no value to STL. This team will not be in contention most likely any sooner than he will be a free agent. So we are trading nothing of value to US.

Prospects - are potential value. That is more than no value. And rolling the dice maybe we land a true star with years of control.

So we deal something that is no value to us for possible massive value if we are lucky. Kinda a no brainer and why everyone is behind this idea.

Wrong. I’d like to trade Donny for a proven 2nd or 3rd year player like Pages. Who has value now and is more of a sure thing and could be worth extending because his window lasts as long as any prospects might.

[Ozziesfan41]

It feels like OP doesn't want to trade Donovan because the odds are prospects we receive won't become AS caliber. The odds too low. Well, lets consider:

What is Donovans value to us? In reality as far as comopeting for a title he is of no value to STL. This team will not be in contention most likely any sooner than he will be a free agent. So we are trading nothing of value to US.

Prospects - are potential value. That is more than no value. And rolling the dice maybe we land a true star with years of control.

So we deal something that is no value to us for possible massive value if we are lucky. Kinda a no brainer and why everyone is behind this idea.

Wrong. I’d like to trade Donny for a proven 2nd or 3rd year player like Pages. Who has value now and is more of a sure thing and could be worth extending because his window lasts as long as any prospects might.

lol there’s zero chance the dodgers would trade pages for Donovan

[The Nard]

So, it may be better to hold on to a Donovan, than trade him for just 2 top-100 prospects.