STLtoday.com

hugeCardfan wrote: ↑05 Dec 2025 10:22 am

craviduce wrote: ↑04 Dec 2025 18:48 pm I won't be upset if we draft 13th, it's that good of a class.

What's the worst we could draft? The best?

Worst is 17th, but that's nearly impossible....that would require 6 teams with worse records that us to win the all 6 draft lottery spots.

The Best is 1st.

We can't draft 7th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 18th......those 5 spots are taken (10-12) or impossible for us to obtain (7th ~ we can only move up to 1-6th. 18th ~ We can't drop that low, see explanation on 17th above)

If we don't win the lottery (1-6th), we'll likely slot into 8th-14th....13th would be if 2 teams with worse records when the lottery...that happened last year with Mariners and Cardinals (3rd and 5th). 14th with 3 teams.

imetsatchelpaige wrote: ↑04 Dec 2025 18:53 pm Thanks Duce.
Your posts are a holiday present in general, but no one here covers prospects like you.

Shady doesn't call him a guru for nothing

Appreciate craviduce. The most knowledgeable posts on this forum.

Thanks as always Crav. While looking fwd to draft, just making sure when you say you wont be around when college season time frame, that is by choice, right and not anything health wise? Just making sure it is cause you are busy you doing fun things.

craviduce wrote: ↑04 Dec 2025 18:49 pm Cholowsky can stick at SS, so that gives him the leg up on most of the class.

He led UCLA to the CWS last year. Incredible bat...likely 30/30 Double/HR bat in the majors.


I guess we should Win the entire Lottery on Tuesday

I second that. Right after I buy my winning Powerball and Megamillions tickets.

Approximate percentage chance for each pick based on 100,000 simulations. Accurate to better than .1%

1st 2.33% --- 9th most likely --- yes I know the real chance is 2.35% but accurate to better than .1% still fits.
2nd 2.84% --- 8th most likely
3rd 3.47% --- 7th most likely
4th 4.46% --- 6th most likely
5th 5.78% --- 5th most likely
6th 7.34% --- 4th most likely
7th 0.00% --- not gonna happen
8th 19.30% --- 2nd most likely
9th 38.59% --- 1st most likely
10th 0.00% --- not gonna happen
11th 0.00% --- not gonna happen
12th 0.00% --- not gonna happen
13th 14.43% --- 3rd most likely
14th 1.42% --- 10th most likely
15th 0.04% --- 11th most likely
16th 0.00% --- 12th most likely
17th 0.00% --- 13th most likely
18th 0.00% --- not gonna happen

So...
84% chance of a top ten pick.
26% chance of winning a lottery pick --- making us ineligible next year for what promises to be a horrific season in 2026.

Since 2026 and 2027 look dismal, it might be best to pick 8th or 9th. 58% chance of that!

Othawhitemeat wrote: ↑06 Dec 2025 01:59 am Thanks as always Crav. While looking fwd to draft, just making sure when you say you wont be around when college season time frame, that is by choice, right and not anything health wise? Just making sure it is cause you are busy you doing fun things.

quite a bit of traveling, family stuff, a smidge of business.....we haven't traveled outside of visiting the kids since before CoVid. Taking some good R & R time in the Spring into early Summer.

craviduce wrote: ↑06 Dec 2025 11:10 am

Othawhitemeat wrote: ↑06 Dec 2025 01:59 am Thanks as always Crav. While looking fwd to draft, just making sure when you say you wont be around when college season time frame, that is by choice, right and not anything health wise? Just making sure it is cause you are busy you doing fun things.

quite a bit of traveling, family stuff, a smidge of business.....we haven't traveled outside of visiting the kids since before CoVid. Taking some good R & R time in the Spring into early Summer.

Good news, Crav. Def use that

craviduce wrote: ↑06 Dec 2025 11:10 am

Othawhitemeat wrote: ↑06 Dec 2025 01:59 am Thanks as always Crav. While looking fwd to draft, just making sure when you say you wont be around when college season time frame, that is by choice, right and not anything health wise? Just making sure it is cause you are busy you doing fun things.

quite a bit of traveling, family stuff, a smidge of business.....we haven't traveled outside of visiting the kids since before CoVid. Taking some good R & R time in the Spring into early Summer.

I hear ya…. But you’re addicted. This may be your passion. You will still follow the farm. You will want to report it. It excites you.

You may draw down a bit, especially initially, but.. one, you will miss it too much, or two, when we get good again, can you stay silent.

I look forward to your future works.