Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?

[ggnoobs]

Dakota Hudson was close in 2019, going 16-7 in his second year.

Michael Wacha was close, going 17-7 in his second FULL year, 3rd overall.

Shelby Miller won 15 in his second year.

Lance Lynn went 18-7 in his second year. He's probably the winner for this comparison.

[RamFan08NY]

It’s not likely, but what if…

-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?

It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.

No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol

Yea, thats whats holding them back from having an 18 game winner.

He has a point. If yanked in 5-6 innings of a game, leading, chances are the pen will give up enough runs to turn the decision into a no decision. Thus lowering the win total.

Well, let's be fair here. The "65 pich count" was grossly exaggerated. Cardinal pitchers are typically around the 90-100 pitch count by the 5th inning, and they also typically got rocked the third time through the lineup. You can blame Marmi if you want, but I dont know if we wanted to see any of those guys out there another inning or two after they'd already thrown 95 pitches into the 5th inning.

[Cardinals4Life]

It’s not likely, but what if…

-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?

It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.

No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol

Yea, thats whats holding them back from having an 18 game winner.

He has a point. If yanked in 5-6 innings of a game, leading, chances are the pen will give up enough runs to turn the decision into a no decision. Thus lowering the win total.

Well, let's be fair here. The "65 pich count" was grossly exaggerated. Cardinal pitchers are typically around the 90-100 pitch count by the 5th inning, and they also typically got rocked the third time through the lineup. You can blame Marmi if you want, but I dont know if we wanted to see any of those guys out there another inning or two after they'd already thrown 95 pitches into the 5th inning.

Yes, 65 was an exaggeration, but making a point nonetheless. Sure there are times when pulling a guy early makes sense, but far too many times Marmol pulls a guy for no apparent reason (other than "that's what we do"). He doesn't have a clue.

High school pitchers routinely pitch more than our starters making millions a year. Insane.

[Cardinals4Life]

It’s not likely, but what if…

-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?

It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.

No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol

Yea, thats whats holding them back from having an 18 game winner.

It certainly doesn't help. Sonny Gray, our ace, routinely get pulled early after 5. Too many 5 and dive guys. Marmol has the say on that.

[ggnoobs]

It’s not likely, but what if…

-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?

It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.

No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol

Yea, thats whats holding them back from having an 18 game winner.

It certainly doesn't help. Sonny Gray, our ace, routinely get pulled early after 5. Too many 5 and dive guys. Marmol has the say on that.

Gray's stuff did seem to drop off pretty significantly after 5 innings.

[NotAFathersDay9871]

Given that there were three pitchers who won 18+ games in 2025, with Max Fried leading the Majors with 19, I doubt any rebuilding club has an 18 game winner next season

[Cardinals4Life]

It’s not likely, but what if…

-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?

It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.

No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol

Yea, thats whats holding them back from having an 18 game winner.

It certainly doesn't help. Sonny Gray, our ace, routinely get pulled early after 5. Too many 5 and dive guys. Marmol has the say on that.

Gray's stuff did seem to drop off pretty significantly after 5 innings.

Yep. It's amazing what your body does when it gets conditioned a certain way. Ace, my rear. Gibson is somewhere rolling over in his grave!

[ICCFIM2]

It’s not likely, but what if…

-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?

It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.

Its a good question. I think the more relevant statistics these days are getting 150+ innings, an ERA under 4 and WHIP in the 1.2 or under range. If you can get 2 guys that are in the 180 IP range, ERA under 3.25 and a WHIP under 1.05, you have 2 aces. Given that the Cards highest upside pitchers have a MLB ETA of 2027, your question becomes more relevant in 2028, which is likely there next open window year. That also is one of the reasons why I think they are actively considering the trade of Donovan, he becomes a FA after 2027. Also, if they can add a pitcher from that trade that fits the definition of a potential ace, it makes sense.

I don't think it is impossible for this team to have upside surprises and make the playoffs in 2026. But, a lot of ifs have to go right. I think they are trying to put themselves in position so by 2028 they have a high percentage chance of getting in not only in 2028, but for the foreseeable future thereafter.

[alw80]

It’s not likely, but what if…

-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?

It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.

No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol

Yea, thats whats holding them back from having an 18 game winner.

It certainly doesn't help. Sonny Gray, our ace, routinely get pulled early after 5. Too many 5 and dive guys. Marmol has the say on that.

Sonny Gray, our ace, was dogsh*t this year. Guy can't pitch if its too hot out.

[An Old Friend]

It’s not likely, but what if…

-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?

It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.

There were 3 18 game winners in baseball this year and they make on average about $27MM each per year.

You’re quite the dreamer.

[ilcubuffs]

1976 - Mark Fidrych: 19-9. ERA: 2.34 WAR 9.6 24 CG. 1976 was Fidrych 1st year.

Still looking.