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This goes the point I've been trying to make elsewhere about - where uncertainty exists is where being smarter than everyone else can provide the greatest benefit.

When it comes to scouting and assessing these really young international prospects, and then envisioning what they have the potential to develop into 5, 6, 7 years down the road - this is about the conditions of "maximum uncertainty" when it comes to decision making in baseball.

If you can be smarter than everyone else in getting more of these decisions right (e.g., like Atlanta got signing Acuna for just $100,000 right years ago), the payoff in terms of how much it will help your team down the road is ENORMOUS.

Being smarter (and therefore right more often) about this kind of "high uncertainty" decision is much more valuable than being smarter about identifying whether a certain FA will be a 2 WAR, 2.5 WAR, or 3 WAR player next year if you sign them - a relatively low uncertainty decision. You want to be smarter about those decisions too, but when the range of outcomes is relatively small (the uncertainty is relatively low) the benefit of being smarter is much less.

Whatashame wrote: ↑18 Nov 2025 20:53 pm Not trying to be pessimistic but sounds like a guy that we will be having Rule 5 discussions about when he’s 21 and we are saying he’s too young to be ready yet.

Maybe but Brewers signed Jackson Chourio at age 16 .
No Rule 5 discussions for them as at age 20 , Chourio was playing in big leagues. No Brewer fans saying he was too young .
Voted 3rd for Rookie of Year .
In 2025 season, Chourio became one of games youngest ever to make thr 20/20 club.. 20HR/20 stolen bases.
Upcoming 2026, will be his 3rd big league year at age 22.
He is not only ready but a blossoming star.
Just trying to be optimistic since you stated you were not trying to be pessimistic.

Melville wrote: ↑18 Nov 2025 20:34 pm 16????
Hmmm.....
Maybe in "Pujols years".....

Latin American countries often measure age in dog years. At least it sometimes seems so.

BrummerStealsHome wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 09:31 am

Melville wrote: ↑18 Nov 2025 20:34 pm 16????
Hmmm.....
Maybe in "Pujols years".....

Latin American countries often measure age in dog years. At least it sometimes seems so.

hopefully verbal agreements are solid/firm

Talkin' Baseball wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 06:02 am

woofy25 wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 00:44 am There is no way that man is 16

Don't know if he can hit, but dude's got some serious arms.

I could have sworn I was looking into a mirror.

What's his actual size? height and weight?

TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 12:07 pm What's his actual size? height and weight?

MLBpipeline lists him as the #9 International Prospect...and he comes in at 6'2", 195lbs...good size for a 16yo. They're usually very wiry in frame, but strong....he's not thin for sure...and there's good possibility of more growth. Yairo Padilla grew 4 inches in 2024...so the possibility is real for Luna.

And Luna's birthday is on the same day as the start of International Signing Period....1/15. I hope this news is real, we'll find out in 2 months if it is.

craviduce wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 12:22 pm

TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 12:07 pm What's his actual size? height and weight?

MLBpipeline lists him as the #9 International Prospect...and he comes in at 6'2", 195lbs...good size for a 16yo. They're usually very wiry in frame, but strong....he's not thin for sure...and there's good possibility of more growth. Yairo Padilla grew 4 inches in 2024...so the possibility is real for Luna.

And Luna's birthday is on the same day as the start of International Signing Period....1/15. I hope this news is real, we'll find out in 2 months if it is.

Not the frame and arms of a 16 year old...maybe 18 or 19....

Great signing. I'm guessing whatever baseball academy he is living in has a gym. Let's hope he didn't get that strong using the method Tatis Jr did.

craviduce wrote: ↑18 Nov 2025 21:29 pm

Ronnie Dobbs wrote: ↑18 Nov 2025 20:42 pm Gave him $2.3 million. I tried looking, butcan’t find it, but does anyone know what the largest amateur signing bonus they have ever given is and also how that compares to the rest of the league?

Jonatan Machado, 2016...signed for $2.35million back when there was free spending (no allotment bonus for teams). The OF didn't work out too well.

Next, would Jonathan Mejia, SS...signed for $2.00million in 2001. Too much swing and miss...still trying to escape Low A. The thought was he had grand pitch recognition...that's not the case. And he could stick at SS. That's not the case, though he does back up SS at times. Plays 2B when healthy and in the lineup. If he's still in Low A this year, he won't play SS...not with Yairo Padilla expected in Palm Beach for 2026.

Royelny Strop signed for $1.4million last year. Pedro's son... OF, 16yo, played sparingly with the DSL team last year while fighting unknown injuries much of the summer. His 17yo season, 2026, should be a major test to see if he can be ready to come stateside in 2017.

Signed in 2001 and still in A ball, what is he 40 year old virgin?

HorseTrader wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 15:47 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑18 Nov 2025 21:29 pm

Ronnie Dobbs wrote: ↑18 Nov 2025 20:42 pm Gave him $2.3 million. I tried looking, butcan’t find it, but does anyone know what the largest amateur signing bonus they have ever given is and also how that compares to the rest of the league?

Jonatan Machado, 2016...signed for $2.35million back when there was free spending (no allotment bonus for teams). The OF didn't work out too well.

Next, would Jonathan Mejia, SS...signed for $2.00million in 2001. Too much swing and miss...still trying to escape Low A. The thought was he had grand pitch recognition...that's not the case. And he could stick at SS. That's not the case, though he does back up SS at times. Plays 2B when healthy and in the lineup. If he's still in Low A this year, he won't play SS...not with Yairo Padilla expected in Palm Beach for 2026.

Royelny Strop signed for $1.4million last year. Pedro's son... OF, 16yo, played sparingly with the DSL team last year while fighting unknown injuries much of the summer. His 17yo season, 2026, should be a major test to see if he can be ready to come stateside in 2017.

Signed in 2001 and still in A ball, what is he 40 year old virgin?

2017 he's 20 now.
I think not sure he was once on the teams top 30 list.

Superman's baby.
made it a no brainer.

Sorry, you two....I made two big blunders. I'll eat that.

2021 and 2027

I'll try to do better...but it likely won't fix the brain farts in the evening.

craviduce wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 16:52 pm Sorry, you two....I made two big blunders. I'll eat that.

2021 and 2027

I'll try to do better...but it likely won't fix the brain farts in the evening.

I knew what you meant.

craviduce wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 16:52 pm Sorry, you two....I made two big blunders. I'll eat that.

2021 and 2027

I'll try to do better...but it likely won't fix the brain farts in the evening.

just having a tiny bit of fun

renostl wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 17:51 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑19 Nov 2025 16:52 pm Sorry, you two....I made two big blunders. I'll eat that.

2021 and 2027

I'll try to do better...but it likely won't fix the brain farts in the evening.

just having a tiny bit of fun

zero worries, Renostl. I deserved that razzing