The trades that matter are not the ones we are talking about

[ICCFIM2]

The comfort, for me at least, in entering the trading season is that we aren’t going to win next year and probably the next. Strange statement, right. The comfort is this: According to a couple of Internet sites that follow minor league baseball, the Cards have the No. 1 or No. 2 farm system. We don’t need to bring back a ton on starters or “on the cusp” players. We need to build an even better farm system, one that will inject strong starters one or two or three years into the future. We need players who other teams will desperately want and are willing to trade what we need for that player. We need to rid ourselves of no-trade contracts on aging players who have little value. We need to get some right handed power hitters and a bunch of pitchers who will be 15-20 game winners at some point in the near future.

I just made the point that we’re not getting any of those level prospects for Nado or even gray. They don’t have that surplus trade value. Maybe Donovan does if we package him with a lesser prospect.

I’d like to hear more discussion on the return for our younger players because that’s the only way we’re going to get a high-level return. Nado situation will take care of itself one way or another but the return will be very disappointing so it seems pointless to anticipate that trade so highly.

Seriously, you don't think Donovan has prospect value? Baseball Trade Value now has him up to $32M. Liam Doyle, our top pitching prospect is at $23M and Wetherholdt is at $55M as points of reference. If the Cards trade Donovan, the expectation should be that they get another Liam Doyle, plus. If we trade Donovan, and it seems increasingly likely we will, the Cards better walk out of that deal with at least 2 prospects, one of which is a 55 Grade and the other is at least a 50 grade in areas of need. Anything less and Bloom is off to a rough start.

I don't care about the Arenado trade as nothing will be coming back. The Gray trade is more interesting. Sonny Gray is currently listed as -$9M on Baseball Trade Value. If the price of starting pitching is sky high on the free agent market, I wonder if that valuation changes to slightly positive by January. If yes, perhaps they get a 45 Grade prospect for him, which would put that prospect around #10 for us.

They will likely make at least 2 other trades, at least 1 will be surprising. A catcher for another need. Gorman or Walker if a team over pays relative to their expected value. Bloom has to come away from this offseason with at least 1 high end pitching prospect and 1 high end OF prospect if they trade away Donovan, Gray and a Catcher.

So do you think a Donovan trade to the Mariners could bring back Kade Anderson? To me that seems crazy! But as a fan, that would be insane!!!

The baseball trade values website has been pretty accurate over the years. Obviously, the teams involved in the trades have their own views of the value of a player. Baseball Trade Value has Kade Anderson at $30.1M and Donovan and $32.1M. So, the answer is yes, that is what Donovan should bring back in return. Would either team do that deal? I don't know. Seattle has several years control over all 6 of the SP that pitched for them last year. I don't know the health of their SPs. I also don't know where they view Anderson as fitting into their rotation. He is likely at least 2 years out and it is an area of surplus for Seattle. If Seattle thinks Donovan is a piece that gets him over the top, yes, I make that deal. It may not look good 10 years from now. But, if they win a championship, I don't think they will care. Does anyone care that we traded Colby Rasmus for 3 guys that didn't stick around too long?

BTV's value is that it is more consistent and objective, IMO.
For some reason nobody is as objective as me.

Anderson would be nice.
Where would Sloan be on BTV objective list and your own subjective one?
He's further away so that won't appeal to many.

BTV has Sloan at $14.1M. He is a long way out. There is a proposed trade on the BTV board as of today, Donovan for both Sloan and Lazaro Montes, $21.8M. My only point above is that Donovan has a lot more trade value than Carp4Cy is giving him.

It is always difficult with prospects because of the lack of certainty. The Cards have been the poster child for the lack of certainty the last several years with Walker, Gorman etc. In my own subjective view, that means if you trade away a player like Donovan, the prospect value coming back based on BTV, should be a bit higher than the value Donovan has. Donovan provides more certainty.

There seems to be enough smoke coming up out of Donovan trade it is likely to happen. We should probably trade a catcher as well. My view is pretty simple out of this offseason, Bloom needs to come out of this offseason with a SP prospect with a ceiling that is at least at a #3. He needs to get another OF prospect that grades out at a 55. Both of these prospects need to be ready by 2027. He needs to clear out the 3 NTC guys. If he accomplishes all of that That should put this team into a competitive window again by 2027/2028. All the payroll should be cleared such that to the extent the prospects are not working out, there should be plenty of dry powder to add for 2028 and no excuse to not be a 90+ win team by then.