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Posted: **05 Oct 2025 14:46 pm**

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:21 am When they were rebuilding, the Phillies' payroll dropped to $95 million (2018) and now stands at $284 million; Atlanta's dropped to $86 million (2016) and now stands at $216 million; and Houston's dropped to $26 million (2013) and now stands at $220 million.

Especially if they eat $30, $40, $50 million to trade Gray, Arenado, and Contreras, I don't know why one would be surprised if they had an actual roster payroll under $100 million.

The only reason to do that is to all in TANK….is that the plan here.
As I’ve written they have productive starters NOW but need a boost
A bats in the OF and a SP can have this team in Playoffs
AND they can STILL draft and develop…..spending $$$ on ML roster doesn’t prevent drafting and developing.
This “Rebuild” always printed here means,…payroll dump and tank to get highest draft picks possible for years…..by that time
Donovan, Burly, and even Winn will be out the door and then you need to replace those positions…..

Posted: **05 Oct 2025 15:26 pm**

rockondlouie wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:32 amYou keep posting this matt knowing good and well that #1) Philly, Atlanta and Houston are MASSIVELY bigger markets w/owners willing to spend and #2) that BDWJr has and is never going to spend anywhere close to $200+M on the 26 man roster which he didn't do even when he was drawing 3.4M!

And the Cardinals having a payroll under $100M is for one reason and one reason only as I've been telling you for months:

LOW ATTENDANCE

Since BDWJr has ALWAYS tied Payroll to ATTENDANCE.

I don’t think his point is that the Cardinals are going to shed a bunch of payroll and then eventually spend $200+ million as the rebuild is finishing up. I think the point is that in a rebuild you are going to see the team shed some payroll initially, but then the team will return to their normal spending habits. He used those large market teams as examples that even those markets saw a payroll drop to under $100 million, so fans should not be surprised when the same happens here. It’s not because DeWitt is cheap. It’s a normal part of the rebuild process.

Now if they are lying and they don’t return to that top third overall payroll figure, and I don’t think that it should take them too long to get back there, then we have some problems.

Posted: **05 Oct 2025 17:40 pm**

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:21 am When they were rebuilding, the Phillies' payroll dropped to $95 million (2018) and now stands at $284 million; Atlanta's dropped to $86 million (2016) and now stands at $216 million; and Houston's dropped to $26 million (2013) and now stands at $220 million.

Especially if they eat $30, $40, $50 million to trade Gray, Arenado, and Contreras, I don't know why one would be surprised if they had an actual roster payroll under $100 million.

Your argument doesn't hold water 2018 -- 8 years ago dollars ---2016 -- 10 years ago dollars -- 2013-- 13 years ago dollars

Posted: **05 Oct 2025 18:20 pm**

Goldfan wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:28 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:19 am Depends on how much BDWJr has to eat.

Just for fun let's assume:

-NADO

$42M left on his 2 yr deal
$-5M coming in 2026 from Rockies
$37M actually on Cardinals payroll
($6M deferred)

BDWJr eats $20M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring teams gets NADO for $22M/2 yrs $6M is deferred)

-Gray

$35M left on deal
$5M buyout
$40M actually on Cardinals payroll

BDWJr eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets Gray for $25M/1 yr + $5M buyout if they decline)

-WillyC

$36.5M left on 2yr deal
$5M buyout

BDWJr shouldn't have to eat much given Willy is still an excellent hitter and a solid 1st baseman who can also still catch

But let's say he eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets WillyC for $26.5M/2yrs + $5M buyout)

So BDWJr is responsible for $40M ($35M in 2026 and $5M in 2027)

With estimates for ARB cases that would leave the 2026 payroll at:

$50+M est. 2026 payroll if all the above occurs.

(Before Bloom deals anyone else (re: Donny or Noot or Burly or a catcher?) and adds thru free agency and trades for major league players)

So Bloom could easily add
Bellinger 30mil
SCHwarber 30mil
Top SP
AND STILL BE UNDER 150MIL

We’ll have none of that! We have to lose for 4 or 5 more years and put all hope in prospects before we can win again.

Posted: **05 Oct 2025 19:27 pm**

At this point anyone who thinks any businessman is going to spend more after losing 33% of one of their revenue streams after losing 25% of another the previous year is delusional. Additionally, there is considerably more money going into player development.

Posted: **05 Oct 2025 20:11 pm**

The payroll without those guys? Enough to lower ticket prices instead of raising them!

Posted: **05 Oct 2025 20:14 pm**

JuanAgosto wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 20:11 pm The payroll without those guys? Enough to lower ticket prices instead of raising them!

Ticket prices will go up only if you choose to buy them..

Posted: **05 Oct 2025 21:20 pm**

45s wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 20:14 pm
JuanAgosto wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 20:11 pm The payroll without those guys? Enough to lower ticket prices instead of raising them!
Ticket prices will go up only if you choose to buy them..

They are going up. But no, nobody has to buy them.

Posted: **06 Oct 2025 06:42 am**

JuanAgosto wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 21:20 pm
45s wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 20:14 pm
JuanAgosto wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 20:11 pm The payroll without those guys? Enough to lower ticket prices instead of raising them!
Ticket prices will go up only if you choose to buy them..
They are going up. But no, nobody has to buy them.

yes.....the club can charge whatever they wish ....

for those who refuse to pay that price, their cost has gone down...

but...mark my words.....some of our friends on this board who are complaining about ticket prices, will regale us with stories of their opening day experiences at the ballpark next year...

you can't make it up..

Posted: **06 Oct 2025 07:02 am**

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:21 am When they were rebuilding, the Phillies' payroll dropped to $95 million (2018) and now stands at $284 million; Atlanta's dropped to $86 million (2016) and now stands at $216 million; and Houston's dropped to $26 million (2013) and now stands at $220 million.

Especially if they eat $30, $40, $50 million to trade Gray, Arenado, and Contreras, I don't know why one would be surprised if they had an actual roster payroll under $100 million.

I think most expect a roster under 100 in 2026

Posted: **06 Oct 2025 07:33 am**

stanw wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 17:40 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:21 am When they were rebuilding, the Phillies' payroll dropped to $95 million (2018) and now stands at $284 million; Atlanta's dropped to $86 million (2016) and now stands at $216 million; and Houston's dropped to $26 million (2013) and now stands at $220 million.

Especially if they eat $30, $40, $50 million to trade Gray, Arenado, and Contreras, I don't know why one would be surprised if they had an actual roster payroll under $100 million.
Your argument doesn't hold water 2018 -- 8 years ago dollars ---2016 -- 10 years ago dollars -- 2013-- 13 years ago dollars

If you prefer:

Houston declined from $103M in 2009 to $26M in 2013, a 75% decline.
Philadelphia declined from $177M in 2014 to $89M in 2016, a 50% decline.
Atlanta declined from $112M in 2014 to $87M in 2016, a 22% decline.

At even a 40% decline, the Cardinals would drop from $177M in 2023 to $106M, but if $30M-$50M is packaged with Gray/Arenado/Contreras to trade them, then their actual MLB payroll would be $56M to $76M.

Posted: **06 Oct 2025 07:39 am**

rockondlouie wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:19 am Depends on how much BDWJr has to eat.

Just for fun let's assume:

-NADO

$42M left on his 2 yr deal
$-5M coming in 2026 from Rockies
$37M actually on Cardinals payroll
($6M deferred)

BDWJr eats $20M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring teams gets NADO for $22M/2 yrs $6M is deferred)

-Gray

$35M left on deal
$5M buyout
$40M actually on Cardinals payroll

BDWJr eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets Gray for $25M/1 yr + $5M buyout if they decline)

-WillyC

$36.5M left on 2yr deal
$5M buyout

BDWJr shouldn't have to eat much given Willy is still an excellent hitter and a solid 1st baseman who can also still catch

But let's say he eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets WillyC for $26.5M/2yrs + $5M buyout)

So BDWJr is responsible for $40M ($35M in 2026 and $5M in 2027)

With estimates for ARB cases that would leave the 2026 payroll at:

$50+M est. 2026 payroll if all the above occurs.

(Before Bloom deals anyone else (re: Donny or Noot or Burly or a catcher?) and adds thru free agency and trades for major league players)

It’s more like $25M to eat for Arenado and $15M for Gray just to break even on the contract cost.

Posted: **06 Oct 2025 07:44 am**

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 07:33 am
stanw wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 17:40 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:21 am When they were rebuilding, the Phillies' payroll dropped to $95 million (2018) and now stands at $284 million; Atlanta's dropped to $86 million (2016) and now stands at $216 million; and Houston's dropped to $26 million (2013) and now stands at $220 million.

Especially if they eat $30, $40, $50 million to trade Gray, Arenado, and Contreras, I don't know why one would be surprised if they had an actual roster payroll under $100 million.
Your argument doesn't hold water 2018 -- 8 years ago dollars ---2016 -- 10 years ago dollars -- 2013-- 13 years ago dollars
If you prefer:

Houston declined from $103M in 2009 to $26M in 2013, a 75% decline.
Philadelphia declined from $177M in 2014 to $89M in 2016, a 50% decline.
Atlanta declined from $112M in 2014 to $87M in 2016, a 22% decline.

At even a 40% decline, the Cardinals would drop from $177M in 2023 to $106M, but if $30M-$50M is packaged with Gray/Arenado/Contreras to trade them, then their actual MLB payroll would be $56M to $76M.

They are at $110M with the 3 veterans. Also the ML minimum is $60M. It would be crazy if we were near that.

Posted: **06 Oct 2025 07:48 am**

Goldfan wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 08:56 am Has to be well under 100mil
C Crooks/Pages
1B Burly
2b JJ
SS Winn
3B Donovan
DH Herrera
LF NEED
CF Scott
RF NEED

Bloom could sign a 2x30mil/yr and a 20-30mil AND still be under 175mil.

You killed off Noot?

Posted: **06 Oct 2025 08:43 am**

Ronnie Dobbs wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 15:26 pm
rockondlouie wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:32 amYou keep posting this matt knowing good and well that #1) Philly, Atlanta and Houston are MASSIVELY bigger markets w/owners willing to spend and #2) that BDWJr has and is never going to spend anywhere close to $200+M on the 26 man roster which he didn't do even when he was drawing 3.4M!

And the Cardinals having a payroll under $100M is for one reason and one reason only as I've been telling you for months:

LOW ATTENDANCE

Since BDWJr has ALWAYS tied Payroll to ATTENDANCE.
I don’t think his point is that the Cardinals are going to shed a bunch of payroll and then eventually spend $200+ million as the rebuild is finishing up. I think the point is that in a rebuild you are going to see the team shed some payroll initially, but then the team will return to their normal spending habits. He used those large market teams as examples that even those markets saw a payroll drop to under $100 million, so fans should not be surprised when the same happens here. It’s not because DeWitt is cheap. It’s a normal part of the rebuild process.

Now if they are lying and they don’t return to that top third overall payroll figure, and I don’t think that it should take them too long to get back there, then we have some problems.

Oh yes it is what he's been saying ronnie

Matt's said many times that after the rebuild is complete and the system is funneling prospects to the roster that BDWJr will take the payroll into the top 10-12 26 man roster range, that's way over $200M.

Of course once the team sheds payroll down to or near the $100M range the only way to go is UP, that's a given.

But (IMO) "up" will never, ever come close to $200M.

I'd expect BDWJr to increase payroll yearly ONLY as attendance starts to increase.

JMO but I see it topping out at $180+M, nowhere near a Top 10-12 payroll in (say) 2028.

Posted: **06 Oct 2025 09:57 am**

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 07:48 am
Goldfan wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 08:56 am Has to be well under 100mil
C Crooks/Pages
1B Burly
2b JJ
SS Winn
3B Donovan
DH Herrera
LF NEED
CF Scott
RF NEED

Bloom could sign a 2x30mil/yr and a 20-30mil AND still be under 175mil.
You killed off Noot?

You want Noot? You can have him. Perhaps ship him out to LA to be Ohtani’s pet…..

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Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?

Re: What’s ‘26 payroll without Gray, NA, WC?