"What does breakout season for Nootbaar look like?"

[Goldfan]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

But but but those rates stats are ALWAYS exactly extrapolated to 162……book it
Them boys need a chance to play a full season……we Owe them that much…..it’s only fair
Mouth hurts from saying “I told you so” so often

[Cusecards]

Breakout? No
Break Wind???? Yes!
The guy is the epitome of a choker and total nitwit.

Please please please unload this bum!

[CorneliusWolfe]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

Burleson barely eclipses those production numbers and he’s a midwestern folklore hero.

[LewisL]

I remember when the Cardinals organization and the fans were high on Nootbar. I remember reading or hearing of his reputation of being good fastball hitter, and being selective with a good batting eye.

While I was reading this thread, I got curious, and just looked up his minor league numbers on baseball reference. I was surprised over how unimpressive they were. Look at these career numbers: 7 minor league seasons, 230 games, 912 AB's, only 23 HR's, .728 OPS.

So why was Nootbar ever promoted to the majors after those mediocre numbers? Heck, Gorman and Walker were much better than that. Why were there any expectations for him to begin with?

[blackinkbiz]

I'd like to give him (and others on the team) the benefit of the doubt and say part of the reason they're all struggling is because there's no cohesive back-to-back-to-back-to-blah-blah threat with this lineup, but they're all so depressing to watch, I don't even think I can give him that.

Of course, he'd probably be more productive in a real lineup where he could be utilized properly, but who knows. It literally feels like I'm having the life sucked out of me anytime I watch this team nowadays so I'll just say Noot is what he's produced.

Sadly, of course, this has been his worst season, so of course trade value's at an all-time-low, just like most of them.

[Cardinalss4Ever]

Nooooooot! Is a slightly better John Mabry. He is what he is.

[Cusecards]

Ok...I admit I’m probably being a bit too rough on Noot!
But....he is majorly overrated.
He plays good corner OF defense and in a pinch can cover CF.
He hits LH and if you need a platoon LH bat for OF he’s your guy.
Not an everyday player as he is awful vs LH pitching.
He’s not clutch and is mentally soft.
And usually he can’t stay healthy.
Moving forward you have other superior LH bats already on this team.
Nice guy but trade him for something of value!

[3dender]

I remember when the Cardinals organization and the fans were high on Nootbar. I remember reading or hearing of his reputation of being good fastball hitter, and being selective with a good batting eye.

While I was reading this thread, I got curious, and just looked up his minor league numbers on baseball reference. I was surprised over how unimpressive they were. Look at these career numbers: 7 minor league seasons, 230 games, 912 AB's, only 23 HR's, .728 OPS.

So why was Nootbar ever promoted to the majors after those mediocre numbers? Heck, Gorman and Walker were much better than that. Why were there any expectations for him to begin with?

1) Those are the same skills Carpenter had in the minors.
2) He had a .900 OPS in his first taste of AAA in 2021
3) He had a 1.000+ OPS in the Arizona Fall League that winter
4) He rose from low-A to AA in 2019 and his OBP got better along the way.
5) He missed a year of development in 2020 but by all accounts had made the most of it by training on his own, which was proven the following year in AAA.

It was not a reach at all to think he would be able to turn into a solid starting OF based on those accomplishments.

[imadangman]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

I was pretty high on Nootbaar after 2022.
.228 .340 .448 looked like a good statline to build on. He drew walks, and he posted a .220 ISO that season which indicated good power. He sure looked like he could one day achieve a lot more than 15 hr and 55 rbi.
I also remember comparing some pitch charts. I saw that all of Gorman's HRs for 2022 were on middle-middle pitches. Nootbaar, on the other hand, had hit home runs on pitches all over the zone. So there was reason for true optimism. However, he hasn't posted an ISO anywhere near .220 since then. The limitations in his game have stayed the same. Can't hit lefties, inconsistent, and doesn't play CF all that well. Let's start with the first one. Corner OFs who can't hit lefties (Jesse Winker comes to mind) seem to lose trade value pretty quickly, especially once they are a year or two removed from their big season.

IF Nootbaar had been able to maintain his 2022 production with some consistency over a full season (a .112 split between his avg and obp, and a .220 ISO... so let's up his average to .245 and give him a .245/.357/.465 line, which probably would have easily translated to 20-25 homers), AND if he had been able to play a passable CF on a regular basis, I think he could have been a nice mainstay atop the lineup for several years. But, because of the limitations cited, he is not that player.

[stormtime]

Remember that thread from the beginning of the season?
Can't locate it now.

He learns to hit.

[Bomber1]

Remember that thread from the beginning of the season?
Can't locate it now.

Somebody in that thread said something like:
140 games
20+ HR (Lol)
75-80 RBI (Lol)
.400 OBP (Lol)
.780-.800 OPS

I hope everybody now realizes just how average Nootbaar is.

Except for base running - in that category Noot is a moron.

[Bomber1]

.236 .323 .366 .689 is not it.

.AVG .OBP .SLG .OPS Year Sprint Speed.
.239 .317 .422 .739 2021 28.4
.228 .340 .448 .788 2022 28.2
.261 .367 .418 .784 2023 27.8
.244 .342 .417 .758 2024 27.0
.236 .323 .366 .689 2025 27.0

It is time to trade him.

The longer he is in the league the worse he gets.

Still hasn’t eclipsed the very reasonable job of hitting 15 HR or driving in 50 runs despite playing the most games of his career.

Should have already been traded when some people thought he was good.

[Bomber1]

Remember that thread from the beginning of the season?
Can't locate it now.

You and I don't agree on everything, but I remember agreeing with you on that thread. We were both past wanting to trade him then. According to Baseball Trade Values, his trade value was about 3 times greater at that point than it is now. Some wouldn't hear it.

Just another in a long line of failed prospects that were held onto until their value plummeted.

[Bomber1]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

I certainly didn’t think your numbers were low.

[Bomber1]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

Burleson barely eclipses those production numbers and he’s a midwestern folklore hero.

Burleson hasn’t had 4 years as a full-time starter. Also Burleson drove in 78 last year. Nooty’s been unable to get 50 rbi.

[CorneliusWolfe]

It was my original thread

I was on the fence about Nootbaar. I knew he was a darling of the analytic-leaning crowd because of his OB% and that he could post a high WAR/162 during the time he stayed healthy. Many posters were even calling on Noot to be a breakout player, before the season. They were acting like he was indispensable.

So my goal was to really press these people what they think he could actually do. First, could he even stay healthy. And second, give me some hard numbers of what would have warranted a "breakout season." For me, if he could have hit .250/.350/.460+ with 25 homers, I would have called it a breakout. I'm not saying I expected that. I'm saying that's the baseline he would have to reach for me to recognize a breakout season. Otherwise, he's a 4th OF / platoon piece as he has been all along.

Beyond that, would be the question of if he could even rattle off a string of 5 consistent seasons. I think that always looked very far-fetched, even moreso now.

Thank you for reclaiming that original thread.
A lot of folks were projecting Nootbaar to hit 20 HR.
Others 25.
As I recall, there was also a generally optimistic range concerning runs scored and RBI - 80's & 90's.
I said otherwise.
I said it would be a breakout year if he could score 70 runs, drive in 55, and hit 15 HR.
I pointed out he had never reached any of those numbers.
Said it would be a huge breakout if he did it in 2025.
Everyone without exception said I was wrong, and my numbers were too low.
Looks like they were too high.

Burleson barely eclipses those production numbers and he’s a midwestern folklore hero.

Burleson hasn’t had 4 years as a full-time starter. Also Burleson drove in 78 last year. Nooty’s been unable to get 50 rbi.

Don’t get me wrong, Noot sucks too. But when comparing these should-be career bench players:

.748 to 744 career OPS and .320 to .340 OBP and 248 to 163 Runs scored, 184 to 194 RBI. All in favor of Nootbaar who is also the superior defender. Less than 140 PAs difference. Nootbaar also hit a lot of lead-off while Burleson always slotted in an RBI spot. Yet Nootbaar is trash and Burleson is great.