STLtoday.com

rbirules wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 12:54 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 12:48 pm

rbirules wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 12:39 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 11:51 am Who would you want in your OF/LIneup?

2015
J. Heyward
7.0 bWAR
13 HR
60 RBI's
.293 .359 .439 .797

OR

2010
M. Holliday
5.9 bWAR
28 HR
103 RBI
.312 .390 .532 .922

I know who I'd want and it isn't the guy w/the "higher" bWAR.

From 2010 to 2015 these are the two best seasons by a Cardinals OF according to fangraphs WAR model, fWAR . . .
Holliday 2010 - 6.2 fWAR
Heyward 2015 - 5.6 fWAR

bWAR has some crazy defensive values sometimes, but for some reason it's still the more widely used WAR model (probably because ESPN carried it for a while, maybe they still do). I did a deep dive into Heyward's 2015 season a while back and showed as much (I think it was in comparison to another OF in 2015, Bautista maybe).

FYI, Zeile's 1993 season was worth 1.6 fWAR.

Yes it does indeed have some crazy defensive values, I've never been able to figure out how they value defense.

(ESPN) probably why I (foolishly) keep using bWAR instead of fWAR as I just got use to going to BR.

No worries rocko.

About 90% of the time when I see a thread titled "so and so-s WAR in XXXX" I know it's going to a post about how "the WAR total doesn't make sense at all, especially when compared to this other player's WAR in XXXX, and can somebody explain this to me?" Then I look at it and they are inevitably using bWAR and I show the fWAR values and say "does that look closer to what you expected?" The answer is almost always "yes", sometimes it's still not quite what they were expecting but it's still closer. And usually the original WAR value in question had an outlier dWAR due to bWAR's use of DRS, or whatever they used prior to DRS, like in Ziele's case.

Bingo

I just got to comfortable using BR, even though I almost always still look at fWAR too.

1990 Joe Carter - 24 HR, 115 RBI, 22 SB, -1.7 bWAR

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 11:51 am Who would you want in your OF/LIneup?

2015
J. Heyward
7.0 bWAR
13 HR
60 RBI's
.293 .359 .439 .797

OR

2010
M. Holliday
5.9 bWAR
28 HR
103 RBI
.312 .390 .532 .922

I know who I'd want and it isn't the guy w/the "higher" bWAR.

I know who I'd rather have in LF in the 9th inning against the Dodgers in the NLDS.....

Not bashing Holliday. Another great year or two and he'd be in the hall of fame, but Heyward was terrific that year defensively and on the bases. It may be overstated by WAR, but you also can't just ignore it because it's harder to quantify than offensive stats.

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:05 pm 1990 Joe Carter - 24 HR, 115 RBI, 22 SB, -1.7 bWAR

fWAR hated his 1990 season even more: -2.0.

Then again, an 80 wRC+ and ungodly -29 TZ in the field will tend to do that to you.

NYCardsFan wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:20 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:05 pm 1990 Joe Carter - 24 HR, 115 RBI, 22 SB, -1.7 bWAR

fWAR hated his 1990 season even more: -2.0.

Then again, an 80 wRC+ and ungodly -29 TZ in the field will tend to do that to you.

He also got some MVP votes!

NYCardsFan wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:20 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:05 pm 1990 Joe Carter - 24 HR, 115 RBI, 22 SB, -1.7 bWAR

fWAR hated him even more: -2.0.

Then again, an 80 wRC+ and ungodly -29 TZ in the field will tend to do that to you.

Joe Carter is a good example of how WAR clarifies a player’s value… the back of his baseball card might suggest he’s a HOF candidate - 396 HR, 1445 RBI, 231 SB.

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:05 pm 1990 Joe Carter - 24 HR, 115 RBI, 22 SB, -1.7 bWAR

1999 Dante Bichette: 34 HR, 133 RBI, .298 .354 .541, 100 wRC+ (Colorado lol), -2.1 fWar

lordoffatness wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:08 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 11:51 am Who would you want in your OF/LIneup?

2015
J. Heyward
7.0 bWAR
13 HR
60 RBI's
.293 .359 .439 .797

OR

2010
M. Holliday
5.9 bWAR
28 HR
103 RBI
.312 .390 .532 .922

I know who I'd want and it isn't the guy w/the "higher" bWAR.

I know who I'd rather have in LF in the 9th inning against the Dodgers in the NLDS.....

Not bashing Holliday. Another great year or two and he'd be in the hall of fame, but Heyward was terrific that year defensively and on the bases. It may be overstated by WAR, but you also can't just ignore it because it's harder to quantify than offensive stats.

For that one inning, sure and no one is "ignoring it".

But for an entire season, it's Matt all the way.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 14:05 pm

lordoffatness wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:08 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 11:51 am Who would you want in your OF/LIneup?

2015
J. Heyward
7.0 bWAR
13 HR
60 RBI's
.293 .359 .439 .797

OR

2010
M. Holliday
5.9 bWAR
28 HR
103 RBI
.312 .390 .532 .922

I know who I'd want and it isn't the guy w/the "higher" bWAR.

I know who I'd rather have in LF in the 9th inning against the Dodgers in the NLDS.....

Not bashing Holliday. Another great year or two and he'd be in the hall of fame, but Heyward was terrific that year defensively and on the bases. It may be overstated by WAR, but you also can't just ignore it because it's harder to quantify than offensive stats.

For that one inning, sure and no one is "ignoring it".

But for an entire season, it's Matt all the way.

Yeah, but all of those "one innings" add up. Heyward was a much better defender and baserunner than Holliday by advanced metrics or the eye test. WAR may overinflate some of those contributions, but you have to try and account for that value somehow.

I'm not saying 2015 Heyward was better than 2010 Holliday. As someone pointed out Fangraphs has Holliday rated higher, but it's much closer than the offensive numbers would suggest.

2010 Holliday - Baserunning (-1.1) - Offense (38.9) - Defense (0.3) gets you to 6.2 WAR
2015 Heyward - Baserunning (7.2) - Offense (22.2) - Defense (11.3) gets you to 5.6 WAR

There are some other numbers that go into the formula (positional adjustment, league adjustment, etc), but I think that paints a pretty fair picture. Heyward won a gold glove, had 26 defensive runs saved, and a 89% stolen base rate. I would take Holliday (especially with our current roster), but Heyward had a very good season.

Just wondering where we think the horrific bWAR injustice lies.

bat basr dp fld P[ositively] O[bnoxious] S[impleton] repl total
39 -2 0 7 -6 21 60 2010 Holliday (5.9 bWAR) - teams scored 4.33 runs/game
14 6 5 28 -5 20 48 2015 Heyward (7.0 bWAR) - teams scored 4.11 runs/game

Holliday was 25 runs better at the plate. Holliday had ~99 r/rbi; Heyward had ~70 r/rbi.
Offense was down 0.22 runs/game in Heyward's league.

Heyward was 8 runs better on the bases. Heyward 23SB/3CS; Holliday 9SB/5CS.
How many runs is 14 SB worth or 2 CS worth? What about other baserunning advances?

Heyward was 5 runs better at avoiding GIDP. Holliday 13/127 GIDP; Heyward 13/145 GIDP.
5 runs seems too high for Heyward avoiding 1.5 GIDP. -- corrected this; had it wrong the first time.

Heyward was 21 runs better at fielding his position.
That is about one run every 7.5 games that he saved or Holiday allowed.
That means either Heyward had to save a run or Holliday had to blow a run almost every week. Not both.

lordoffatness wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 15:38 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 14:05 pm

lordoffatness wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:08 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 11:51 am Who would you want in your OF/LIneup?

2015
J. Heyward
7.0 bWAR
13 HR
60 RBI's
.293 .359 .439 .797

OR

2010
M. Holliday
5.9 bWAR
28 HR
103 RBI
.312 .390 .532 .922

I know who I'd want and it isn't the guy w/the "higher" bWAR.

I know who I'd rather have in LF in the 9th inning against the Dodgers in the NLDS.....

Not bashing Holliday. Another great year or two and he'd be in the hall of fame, but Heyward was terrific that year defensively and on the bases. It may be overstated by WAR, but you also can't just ignore it because it's harder to quantify than offensive stats.

For that one inning, sure and no one is "ignoring it".

But for an entire season, it's Matt all the way.

Yeah, but all of those "one innings" add up. Heyward was a much better defender and baserunner than Holliday by advanced metrics or the eye test. WAR may overinflate some of those contributions, but you have to try and account for that value somehow.

I'm not saying 2015 Heyward was better than 2010 Holliday. As someone pointed out Fangraphs has Holliday rated higher, but it's much closer than the offensive numbers would suggest.

2010 Holliday - Baserunning (-1.1) - Offense (38.9) - Defense (0.3) gets you to 6.2 WAR
2015 Heyward - Baserunning (7.2) - Offense (22.2) - Defense (11.3) gets you to 5.6 WAR

There are some other numbers that go into the formula (positional adjustment, league adjustment, etc), but I think that paints a pretty fair picture. Heyward won a gold glove, had 26 defensive runs saved, and a 89% stolen base rate. I would take Holliday (especially with our current roster), but Heyward had a very good season.

Yea well are of all those numbers.

And never intimated that JHey didn't have a good season w/the Cardinals.

But how many games do you really think Heyward was DIRECTLY responsible for saving w/his glove?

DRS add up in blowouts too.

I'd bet a lot Matt's bat won many multiples of games vs Heyward's glove.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Sep 2025 08:50 am

lordoffatness wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 15:38 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 14:05 pm

lordoffatness wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:08 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 11:51 am Who would you want in your OF/LIneup?

2015
J. Heyward
7.0 bWAR
13 HR
60 RBI's
.293 .359 .439 .797

OR

2010
M. Holliday
5.9 bWAR
28 HR
103 RBI
.312 .390 .532 .922

I know who I'd want and it isn't the guy w/the "higher" bWAR.

I know who I'd rather have in LF in the 9th inning against the Dodgers in the NLDS.....

Not bashing Holliday. Another great year or two and he'd be in the hall of fame, but Heyward was terrific that year defensively and on the bases. It may be overstated by WAR, but you also can't just ignore it because it's harder to quantify than offensive stats.

For that one inning, sure and no one is "ignoring it".

But for an entire season, it's Matt all the way.

Yeah, but all of those "one innings" add up. Heyward was a much better defender and baserunner than Holliday by advanced metrics or the eye test. WAR may overinflate some of those contributions, but you have to try and account for that value somehow.

I'm not saying 2015 Heyward was better than 2010 Holliday. As someone pointed out Fangraphs has Holliday rated higher, but it's much closer than the offensive numbers would suggest.

2010 Holliday - Baserunning (-1.1) - Offense (38.9) - Defense (0.3) gets you to 6.2 WAR
2015 Heyward - Baserunning (7.2) - Offense (22.2) - Defense (11.3) gets you to 5.6 WAR

There are some other numbers that go into the formula (positional adjustment, league adjustment, etc), but I think that paints a pretty fair picture. Heyward won a gold glove, had 26 defensive runs saved, and a 89% stolen base rate. I would take Holliday (especially with our current roster), but Heyward had a very good season.

Yea well are of all those numbers.

And never intimated that JHey didn't have a good season w/the Cardinals.

But how many games do you really think Heyward was DIRECTLY responsible for saving w/his glove?

DRS add up in blowouts too.

I'd bet a lot Matt's bat won many multiples of games vs Heyward's glove.

He was a bad fit for that team also they had no middle of the order bats carp was the only one who hit more than 20 home runs and he could only hit leadoff so they went out and traded for a light hitting defensive specialist just a dumb trade for what the cardinals needs were

Ozziesfan41 wrote: ↑23 Sep 2025 08:59 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Sep 2025 08:50 am

lordoffatness wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 15:38 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 14:05 pm

lordoffatness wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 13:08 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑22 Sep 2025 11:51 am Who would you want in your OF/LIneup?

2015
J. Heyward
7.0 bWAR
13 HR
60 RBI's
.293 .359 .439 .797

OR

2010
M. Holliday
5.9 bWAR
28 HR
103 RBI
.312 .390 .532 .922

I know who I'd want and it isn't the guy w/the "higher" bWAR.

I know who I'd rather have in LF in the 9th inning against the Dodgers in the NLDS.....

Not bashing Holliday. Another great year or two and he'd be in the hall of fame, but Heyward was terrific that year defensively and on the bases. It may be overstated by WAR, but you also can't just ignore it because it's harder to quantify than offensive stats.

For that one inning, sure and no one is "ignoring it".

But for an entire season, it's Matt all the way.

Yeah, but all of those "one innings" add up. Heyward was a much better defender and baserunner than Holliday by advanced metrics or the eye test. WAR may overinflate some of those contributions, but you have to try and account for that value somehow.

I'm not saying 2015 Heyward was better than 2010 Holliday. As someone pointed out Fangraphs has Holliday rated higher, but it's much closer than the offensive numbers would suggest.

2010 Holliday - Baserunning (-1.1) - Offense (38.9) - Defense (0.3) gets you to 6.2 WAR
2015 Heyward - Baserunning (7.2) - Offense (22.2) - Defense (11.3) gets you to 5.6 WAR

There are some other numbers that go into the formula (positional adjustment, league adjustment, etc), but I think that paints a pretty fair picture. Heyward won a gold glove, had 26 defensive runs saved, and a 89% stolen base rate. I would take Holliday (especially with our current roster), but Heyward had a very good season.

Yea well aware of all those numbers.

And never intimated that JHey didn't have a good season w/the Cardinals.

But how many games do you really think Heyward was DIRECTLY responsible for saving w/his glove?

DRS add up in blowouts too.

I'd bet a lot Matt's bat won many multiples of games vs Heyward's glove.

He was a bad fit for that team also they had no middle of the order bats carp was the only one who hit more than 20 home runs and he could only hit leadoff so they went out and traded for a light hitting defensive specialist just a dumb trade for what the cardinals needs were

I've never been a JHey fan