Sabermetrics can be interesting and fun, but it quickly becomes clear that folks who can't swim are diving into the deep end of the pool on statistics. The pythagorian expectation is a Bill James construct with a name fancier than it's output is reliable.
This Cardinal team has not overperformed. Their peak perhas was June 29 when they reached 9 games over .500. Extrapolating their record through that date comes to 89.5 wins. That's wildcard territory. They had reached that with a relativily low injury impact. Other than the negative nancies, the consense evaluation of the Cardinals going into this season was to finish a few games over .500. As they regressed towards the mean it looked like that was right about where a mediocre team would land. After the Cardinals realized they were sellers and traded some of their better pieces for prospects, their winning percentage dropped as expected.
Through all this, as to the topic of this thread, Marmol should be evaluated. My opinion is that Marmol has cost this team about five games. First, his pitching staff management is terrible. He operates by a playbook and seldom gives credence to in-the-moment decisions based on his feel for the moment. The stats might say that this lefty gives up a high hit rate to batters such as this, but insight says the lefty has great command tonight, this hitter is pressing, and momentum is building on our side so leave him in in spite of the playbook. TLR leaves him in; Marmol takes him out. If this needs more explanation I'll be more than happy to provide it. Also, this team has a lot of fundamental flaws. That isn't only on Marmol but the entire staff. It's September and the Cardinals are still making boneheaded mistakes more expeted to see in February and March. Lastly, do the players really have faith and trust in Marmol, not only for the team but their individual roles?
BrummerStealsHome wrote: ↑14 Sep 2025 11:16 am
Sabermetrics can be interesting and fun, but it quickly becomes clear that folks who can't swim are diving into the deep end of the pool on statistics. The pythagorian expectation is a Bill James construct with a name fancier than it's output is reliable.
This Cardinal team has not overperformed. Their peak perhas was June 29 when they reached 9 games over .500. Extrapolating their record through that date comes to 89.5 wins. That's wildcard territory. They had reached that with a relativily low injury impact. Other than the negative nancies, the consense evaluation of the Cardinals going into this season was to finish a few games over .500. As they regressed towards the mean it looked like that was right about where a mediocre team would land. After the Cardinals realized they were sellers and traded some of their better pieces for prospects, their winning percentage dropped as expected.
Through all this, as to the topic of this thread, Marmol should be evaluated. My opinion is that Marmol has cost this team about five games. First, his pitching staff management is terrible. He operates by a playbook and seldom gives credence to in-the-moment decisions based on his feel for the moment. The stats might say that this lefty gives up a high hit rate to batters such as this, but insight says the lefty has great command tonight, this hitter is pressing, and momentum is building on our side so leave him in in spite of the playbook. TLR leaves him in; Marmol takes him out. If this needs more explanation I'll be more than happy to provide it. Also, this team has a lot of fundamental flaws. That isn't only on Marmol but the entire staff. It's September and the Cardinals are still making boneheaded mistakes more expeted to see in February and March. Lastly, do the players really have faith and trust in Marmol, not only for the team but their individual roles?
more expected to be seen in the minors, the low minors
I do believe that one of the premises of having Marmot as teacher was his ability to "teach" players in the minors.
Based on performance of Gorman, Walker, Pallante, Fernandez, et al they have not progressed to ML quality players. IF not hitting, defense, pitching what is so frickin valuable he brings to the table??
Keeping Marmot and his incompetence means it is just another throw away year in 2026. It will take a competent manager at least 3 months to undo Marmots lack of MLB knowledge.
Bloom starts a new era of Cardinals baseball. I would like to see him start with a new Mgr. My picks would be Matt Holliday, Don Mattingly or Jason Varitek. I think Matt may be interested since both sons are professional now and Mo is gone. Marmol could move into the front office in some other capacity or just be released to find another job.
