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Posted: **23 Aug 2025 10:32 am**

In the midst of a rebuild, long term contracts reduce roster flexibility…….

and if the player doesn’t develop the club is stuck with it…

I should think the club would be weary of unproductive long term deals

when/if the club has built a quality roster with depth….that would be the time to consider a long term deal..

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 10:34 am**

Youboughtit wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:31 am
An Old Friend wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:06 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:44 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:11 am Not until the player has proven himself in MLB (too risky what the O's just did).
With risk comes reward.
Just my two cents - it would not shock me if Bloom looked for a big return from Winn and moved forward with Wetherholt at SS.

I don't EXPECT it... just think it's in the realm of possibilities.
If Bloom wants to land anything of significance it will require moving one of Winn Donovan or Hererra. The roster is loaded in DH LHOF and MI. There are like 46 players for 40 man and they rush loosing several if they don’t protect them. I think several moves need made and the only 2 not in talks are Doyle and Wetherholt

if by MI you mean 2nd basemen, then that's correct. Winn is not the one you should be moving. you move Winn and you're in the same situation you are today... one SS and a bunch of 2nd basemen pretending to be SS's

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 10:40 am**

Youboughtit wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:37 amWinn will not be an impossible guy to sign. He’s a defensive SS. Won’t demand a record breaking deal. Wetherholt on the other hand might be an elite hitter. That’s the type of player to sign to this type of deal.

No, and that's exactly why I think he's one that they should lock up asap. You have you're elite defensive SS that can hold down the position for years and is at least league average offensively. And he's only 23. There's a lot of room for upward mobility offensively. So lock him up while you can. And if he never hits better than he is now and you decide to trade him, then it's not hard to trade an elite defensive SS signed to a reasonable contract.

But I definitely agree on Wetherholt. Do it soon, because if he comes in and starts hitting like he's capable, you might end up paying a lot more next time you try. Or you might not get another shot because he's going to bet on himself.

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 10:41 am**

moose-and-squirrel wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:34 am
Youboughtit wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:31 am
An Old Friend wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:06 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:44 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:11 am Not until the player has proven himself in MLB (too risky what the O's just did).
With risk comes reward.
Just my two cents - it would not shock me if Bloom looked for a big return from Winn and moved forward with Wetherholt at SS.

I don't EXPECT it... just think it's in the realm of possibilities.
If Bloom wants to land anything of significance it will require moving one of Winn Donovan or Hererra. The roster is loaded in DH LHOF and MI. There are like 46 players for 40 man and they rush loosing several if they don’t protect them. I think several moves need made and the only 2 not in talks are Doyle and Wetherholt
if by MI you mean 2nd basemen, then that's correct. Winn is not the one you should be moving. you move Winn and you're in the same situation you are today... one SS and a bunch of 2nd basemen pretending to be SS's

Then don’t expect a quality player to be obtained in trade. Wetherholt projects as a plus SS. Not as good as Winn but a much better bat. I’m am fine Moving Winn if the return is a #2 SP or a power RH bat. Then you have a place for Wetherholt and Donovan and fill a huge void. The lack of power is real. 3 defense specialist only works with 3-4 superstar bats. Otherwise you need 9 2 WAR bats to compensate. Thats not how this roster is built. Too many 1 tool players.

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 10:41 am**

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:13 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:06 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:44 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:11 am Not until the player has proven himself in MLB (too risky what the O's just did).
With risk comes reward.
With smart risk comes even smarter rewards
But if you wait for them to "prove" themselves, you end up paying A LOT more. So you are trying to take little risk, but you'll be paying so much at that point that the "value" you might get will also be small.

But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

Example:
Thank goodness they didn't hand J. Walker an $80M/8 year deal after his rookie season!

At that time we had some in here clamoring to do it.

Sometime in their third season, like M. Winn will be entering in 2026, is the right time (IMO).

It may cost you a bit more but you're NOT buying a Pig in a Poke like these team did:

-Evan White, Seattle Mariners (6 years, $24 million)

-Luis Robert Jr. (6 years, $50 million)-----one great season, four "meh"

-Rusney Castillo, Boston Red Sox (7 years, $72.5 million)

-Scott Kingery, Philadelphia Phillies (6 years, $24 million)

-Yasmany Tomás, Arizona Diamondbacks (6 years, $68.5 million)

Unless you've got an A. Pujols like talent that you can see in their first/second season is going to be a star, I'm NOT in favor of handing unproven major league talent expensive, LT deals.

And the value for M. Winn, if he's given a LT deal by C. Bloom sometime in 2026 will NOT be small.

JMO

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 10:44 am**

Ronnie Dobbs wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:40 am
Youboughtit wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:37 amWinn will not be an impossible guy to sign. He’s a defensive SS. Won’t demand a record breaking deal. Wetherholt on the other hand might be an elite hitter. That’s the type of player to sign to this type of deal.
No, and that's exactly why I think he's one that they should lock up asap. You have you're elite defensive SS that can hold down the position for years and is at least league average offensively. And he's only 23. There's a lot of room for upward mobility offensively. So lock him up while you can. And if he never hits better than he is now and you decide to trade him, then it's not hard to trade an elite defensive SS signed to a reasonable contract.

But I definitely agree on Wetherholt. Do it soon, because if he comes in and starts hitting like he's capable, you might end up paying a lot more next time you try. Or you might not get another shot because he's going to bet on himself.

Or play it out and wait for development with bat. Defensive SS are cheap. If the bat doesn’t develop you’re not stuck. Even if it does he’s never going to be land a superstar deal because of lack of power. No reason to extend him. Not really franchise changing savings.

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 10:46 am**

Youboughtit wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:41 am
moose-and-squirrel wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:34 am
Youboughtit wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:31 am
An Old Friend wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:06 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:44 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:11 am Not until the player has proven himself in MLB (too risky what the O's just did).
With risk comes reward.
Just my two cents - it would not shock me if Bloom looked for a big return from Winn and moved forward with Wetherholt at SS.

I don't EXPECT it... just think it's in the realm of possibilities.
If Bloom wants to land anything of significance it will require moving one of Winn Donovan or Hererra. The roster is loaded in DH LHOF and MI. There are like 46 players for 40 man and they rush loosing several if they don’t protect them. I think several moves need made and the only 2 not in talks are Doyle and Wetherholt
if by MI you mean 2nd basemen, then that's correct. Winn is not the one you should be moving. you move Winn and you're in the same situation you are today... one SS and a bunch of 2nd basemen pretending to be SS's
Then don’t expect a quality player to be obtained in trade. Wetherholt projects as a plus SS. Not as good as Winn but a much better bat. I’m am fine Moving Winn if the return is a #2 SP or a power RH bat. Then you have a place for Wetherholt and Donovan and fill a huge void. The lack of power is real. 3 defense specialist only works with 3-4 superstar bats. Otherwise you need 9 2 WAR bats to compensate. Thats not how this roster is built. Too many 1 tool players.

Herrera is the guy to move,IF he has any kind of value. team has tons of guys to dh, which appears to be the only place for him

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 10:48 am**

IF JJW is the hitter he appears to be in 2026, then he's the guy I seriously consider extending that LT deal to early.

You could even do JJ + Winn both in/after 2026.

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 10:52 am**

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:13 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:06 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:44 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:11 am Not until the player has proven himself in MLB (too risky what the O's just did).
With risk comes reward.
With smart risk comes even smarter rewards
But if you wait for them to "prove" themselves, you end up paying A LOT more. So you are trying to take little risk, but you'll be paying so much at that point that the "value" you might get will also be small.

Exactly, these deal were made with players having played less 100 games. In Chourio’s case, he had played Zero MLB games . Brewers decision was base solely on his time since being signed at age 16. His play at Double A Biloxi at 19 years old ..only 6 games at AAA Nashville .
Based on what he had done his first two years , no way his agent would accept an 8 yr. $80M deal right now.
Brewers took risk and so far looks very good for them.
Small market team locking him up for 8 yrs and could be 10 if team exercised team option.

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 11:46 am**

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:41 am But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign an expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year for 5-7 years and they flop.

And, yes, you will almost certainly miss on some aggressive signings you make of young players. But if you are scouting your own organization and developing players well, your hits will just as certainly more than make up for your misses.

It's just like playing poker. If I can get all the money in as a 2-to-1 favorite, I want to do that every time, even if I end up losing 2 or 3 of those in a row. I know, eventually, it will pay off for me. You just have to have deep enough pockets to weather the occasional time you miss on 2 or 3 in a row.

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 11:55 am**

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 11:46 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:41 am But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.
A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.

BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 12:07 pm**

moose-and-squirrel wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:46 am
Youboughtit wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:41 am
moose-and-squirrel wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:34 am
Youboughtit wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:31 am
An Old Friend wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:06 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:44 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:11 am Not until the player has proven himself in MLB (too risky what the O's just did).
With risk comes reward.
Just my two cents - it would not shock me if Bloom looked for a big return from Winn and moved forward with Wetherholt at SS.

I don't EXPECT it... just think it's in the realm of possibilities.
If Bloom wants to land anything of significance it will require moving one of Winn Donovan or Hererra. The roster is loaded in DH LHOF and MI. There are like 46 players for 40 man and they rush loosing several if they don’t protect them. I think several moves need made and the only 2 not in talks are Doyle and Wetherholt
if by MI you mean 2nd basemen, then that's correct. Winn is not the one you should be moving. you move Winn and you're in the same situation you are today... one SS and a bunch of 2nd basemen pretending to be SS's
Then don’t expect a quality player to be obtained in trade. Wetherholt projects as a plus SS. Not as good as Winn but a much better bat. I’m am fine Moving Winn if the return is a #2 SP or a power RH bat. Then you have a place for Wetherholt and Donovan and fill a huge void. The lack of power is real. 3 defense specialist only works with 3-4 superstar bats. Otherwise you need 9 2 WAR bats to compensate. Thats not how this roster is built. Too many 1 tool players.
Herrera is the guy to move,IF he has any kind of value. team has tons of guys to dh, which appears to be the only place for him

Ok then which 4 of Donovan Gorman Wetherholt Segesse Winn and Arenado make the team and which 4 OF of Noot Burleson Scott Donovan (if not IF) Hererra Walker and now Church and Baez make the team? Several trades need to happen and most have limited value. Hererra can go for maybe a mid tier return but any other other except Winn or Donovan have much value. Not to mention the 40 man issue of not enough spots to protect everyone

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 12:10 pm**

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 11:55 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 11:46 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:41 am But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.
A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.
BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).

I don't believe "austerity" is a permanent fixture of the Cardinals model. It's a phase they are going through to rebuild and then come out of when they have the foundation in place to compete again.

And their bad deals included extensions for Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc. before they needed to be made. And they also didn't get out from under other deals (Goldschmidt, Arenado) when they should have back in 2023. Those are the mistakes that have done the Cardinals in, not an extension for DeJong, etc.

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 12:23 pm**

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:41 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:13 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:06 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:44 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:11 am Not until the player has proven himself in MLB (too risky what the O's just did).
With risk comes reward.
With smart risk comes even smarter rewards
But if you wait for them to "prove" themselves, you end up paying A LOT more. So you are trying to take little risk, but you'll be paying so much at that point that the "value" you might get will also be small.
But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

Example:
Thank goodness they didn't hand J. Walker an $80M/8 year deal after his rookie season!

At that time we had some in here clamoring to do it.

Sometime in their third season, like M. Winn will be entering in 2026, is the right time (IMO).

It may cost you a bit more but you're NOT buying a Pig in a Poke like these team did:

-Evan White, Seattle Mariners (6 years, $24 million)

-Luis Robert Jr. (6 years, $50 million)-----one great season, four "meh"

-Rusney Castillo, Boston Red Sox (7 years, $72.5 million)

-Scott Kingery, Philadelphia Phillies (6 years, $24 million)

-Yasmany Tomás, Arizona Diamondbacks (6 years, $68.5 million)

Unless you've got an A. Pujols like talent that you can see in their first/second season is going to be a star, I'm NOT in favor of handing unproven major league talent expensive, LT deals.

And the value for M. Winn, if he's given a LT deal by C. Bloom sometime in 2026 will NOT be small.

JMO

Think ‘expensive’ is in the eye of the beholder. Brewers would probably say what we will be paying Chourio for 6 years is what Sonny Gray and Arenado are each being paid for 3 years.
Plus they have 2 team option years past that . Who knows what salaries for top players may be in 2030. Top guys are gettin $40M range today.

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 12:29 pm**

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 12:10 pm
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 11:55 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 11:46 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:41 am But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.
A $6, $8, or $10 million AAV contract isn't going to be an albatross that hampers a team's payroll for years - at least not for any team able to support a $150, $175, or more million payroll.

What hampers a team for years is when you sign and expensive, veteran FA for $20, $25, etc. million per year and they flop.
BDWJr is now in a payroll-pinching mode.

I loathe it, it appears to be fact (re: the amount of payroll slashed in 2024/2025 w/little to nothing added).

The wrong contract handed out too early to a young, unproven player could hamstring C. Bloom given Dewitt's new austerity stance.

Even a $10M AAV over seven years or $70M to the wrong unproven young player will hurt.

I'm fine giving Winn an extension sometime in 2026 even though he's a glove only player w/limited offensive skills.

That's ok because he plays a premium position at the highest defensive level and just needs to be league average (100 wRC+) to have value.

And if JJW ends 2026 w/an .850-.900 OPS & ROY award (or top 2), then I'm okay locking him down too since (IMO) he will be THE FRANCHISE PLAYER that Bloom builds the team around.

But we're in agreement on this, Mo handed out some stupid deals to mediocre veteran players (Re: Leake, Fowler, Cecil, etal).
I don't believe "austerity" is a permanent fixture of the Cardinals model. It's a phase they are going through to rebuild and then come out of when they have the foundation in place to compete again.

And their bad deals included extensions for Carpenter, Mikolas, Molina, etc. before they needed to be made. And they also didn't get out from under other deals (Goldschmidt, Arenado) when they should have back in 2023. Those are the mistakes that have done the Cardinals in, not an extension for DeJong, etc.

It certainly is austerity time until the team starts winning division titles or at the very least making the playoffs as I've explained before, St. Louis will NOT support a mediocre or even average team.

BDWJr has ALWAYS tied payroll to attendance, something else we've discussed before.

This is no "phase", it's reality.

Dewitt will only "come out" of this payroll reduction phase WHEN attendance picks up and not before no matter how many contracts come off the books.

I hope I'm 100% wrong matt but a $120M payroll could be the ceiling for some time unless Bloom can perform a miracle and 1) build a great farm system and 2) field a winning team thru smart trades and small FA signings.

And I've railed ad nauseam about the horrible extensions.

The problem (bad FA signings and extensions plus not dealing Helsley, Fedde, Maton and Matz in the offseason) is out the door soon, hopefully taking his pitiful Manager w/him.

Posted: **23 Aug 2025 12:33 pm**

ramfandan wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 12:23 pm
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:41 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:13 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 10:06 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:44 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Aug 2025 09:11 am Not until the player has proven himself in MLB (too risky what the O's just did).
With risk comes reward.
With smart risk comes even smarter rewards
But if you wait for them to "prove" themselves, you end up paying A LOT more. So you are trying to take little risk, but you'll be paying so much at that point that the "value" you might get will also be small.
But if you hand a player with little or no proven MLB success a huge contract like the O's just did and he FLOPS, then you end up w/an albatross contract that you're stuck w/and could hamper your payroll for years.

Example:
Thank goodness they didn't hand J. Walker an $80M/8 year deal after his rookie season!

At that time we had some in here clamoring to do it.

Sometime in their third season, like M. Winn will be entering in 2026, is the right time (IMO).

It may cost you a bit more but you're NOT buying a Pig in a Poke like these team did:

-Evan White, Seattle Mariners (6 years, $24 million)

-Luis Robert Jr. (6 years, $50 million)-----one great season, four "meh"

-Rusney Castillo, Boston Red Sox (7 years, $72.5 million)

-Scott Kingery, Philadelphia Phillies (6 years, $24 million)

-Yasmany Tomás, Arizona Diamondbacks (6 years, $68.5 million)

Unless you've got an A. Pujols like talent that you can see in their first/second season is going to be a star, I'm NOT in favor of handing unproven major league talent expensive, LT deals.

And the value for M. Winn, if he's given a LT deal by C. Bloom sometime in 2026 will NOT be small.

JMO
Think ‘expensive’ is in the eye of the beholder. Brewers would probably say what we will be paying Chourio for 6 years is what Sonny Gray and Arenado are each being paid for 3 years.
Plus they have 2 team option years past that . Who knows what salaries for top players may be in 2030. Top guys are gettin $40M range today.

Churio is now = to Burleson

Chourio

17 HR
67 RBI
.276 .311 .474 .785

Bumbles

15 HR
59 RBI
.285 .337 .449 .786

Chourio makes $4.25M

Burleson makes $778K

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Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals

Re: Multiple MLB teams have signed young guys to 8 yr. deals