DG Says Cardinals Eligible For a Lottery (Top Six) Pick in 2026

[cardstatman]

I wonder if the $311M in Competitive Balance Payroll Taxes paid by the rich teams in 2024 had any effect on who is a net payor / payee.

Dodgers: $103MM
Mets: $97.1MM
Yankees: $62.5MM
Phillies: $14.4MM
Braves: $14MM
Rangers: $10.8MM
Astros: $6.5MM
Giants: $2.4MM
Cubs: $570K

[woofy25]

No rules change. The lottery is considered picks 1-6, so the Cards haven't had back-to-back lotto picks. That bad lotto luck in '24 may actually turn out to have been a lucky break after all.

rules are different for Payers in the revenue system. The Angels and Cardinals were revenue payers in 2023, thus when they won the lottery in December of 2024 for the 2025 draft, they immediately took on a penalty for 2026 draft. That's in the CBA

At least that's how it's been explained to me and almost every national media out there.

Something had to change....Did the Cards get an adjustment? Were they receivers in 2023?

Or have we've been wrong from the beginning and both the Angels and Cards get to be in the lottery this Winter Meeting?

I'm very confused by all of this now.

Apparently they are receivers now.

So what does it matter? Eligible in 2026 but not in 2027 vs the opposite. They are in a 5 year rebuild so will have to set out 2-3 times likely. I guess I would have to see the list of players to know if it’s a benefit of missing 26 vs 27

2026 college is supposed to be at the 2024 level....very deep. 2027 HS is supposed to be better than 2025 HS was, which was insanely good.

if you want established player then 2026 is better...if you want a copy of 2025 draft, then 2027 is your draft.

Please. Projecting HS kids for the draft two years out is so ridiculous. The kids are currently 15. Colleges are barely offering scholarships at this point.

[MrPostman01]

But the ever informative Tankathon shows the Cards as ineligible for top ten and worse, the position is ineligible to play in the lotto and perhaps grab a better pick. (It does not say ineligible to play lotto, but the Cards only move backwards.)

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

[JDW]

when did they change the rules for the Cardinals?

because I'm sorely confused

This is what Derrick posted in his chat. I have seen it being discussed here for awhile, and I sure as hell have no idea how it works, but I saw this in his chat. If that's the case, I'm hoping for some more luck.

Cardinals are eligible for a lottery (top six pick) in 2026 if they do not make the playoffs.

Again, the Cardinals ARE eligible for a lottery pick (top six) if they do not make the playoffs.

That is double-checked with MLB, the CBA, and the Cardinals, and I circled back on that just to be sure today. Hope that helps.

I do not know where the confusion began but it's possibly related to the Cardinals have access to the lottery in consecutive years. They did not get lottery picks (top six) in consecutive years, however as they "lost" the lottery in 2024 and picked 7th. They "won" the lottery in 2025 to pick 5th. Top six picks are considered lottery picks.


The CBA spells that out, and if the confusion comes from payor/payee stuff, then I get it. Cardinals are not a payor. So they are not limited to one lottery pick. They are entering payee for the first time this season and that would change their status. They're limited to two consecutive lottery picks. They have one, in Doyle. They can get another in 2026.

Well, bad news is in addition to being confused, also a bit conflicted.
Good news is while being conflicted, now confident to say the Cards aren't making the playoffs ...............
Life's weird.

[rockondlouie]

Any news that speeds up this re-build is good news.

[JDW]

Any news that speeds up this re-build is good news.

+1. Hope DG is right.

[RunSup]

when did they change the rules for the Cardinals?

because I'm sorely confused

This is what Derrick posted in his chat. I have seen it being discussed here for awhile, and I sure as hell have no idea how it works, but I saw this in his chat. If that's the case, I'm hoping for some more luck.

Cardinals are eligible for a lottery (top six pick) in 2026 if they do not make the playoffs.

Again, the Cardinals ARE eligible for a lottery pick (top six) if they do not make the playoffs.

That is double-checked with MLB, the CBA, and the Cardinals, and I circled back on that just to be sure today. Hope that helps.

I do not know where the confusion began but it's possibly related to the Cardinals have access to the lottery in consecutive years. They did not get lottery picks (top six) in consecutive years, however as they "lost" the lottery in 2024 and picked 7th. They "won" the lottery in 2025 to pick 5th. Top six picks are considered lottery picks.


The CBA spells that out, and if the confusion comes from payor/payee stuff, then I get it. Cardinals are not a payor. So they are not limited to one lottery pick. They are entering payee for the first time this season and that would change their status. They're limited to two consecutive lottery picks. They have one, in Doyle. They can get another in 2026.

Thanks for the post and update.

The lottery is still a roll of the dice or pick of a ping pong ball. The Cardinals are somewhere around the bottom 12. They don't tank well. Also I will find it difficult to root for them to lose, so may just not even watch.

So now their decision to not bring up JJW is a brilliant tank move and effort that they remain revenue share receivers?

The compensation round pick may be the most significant thing out of all this based on lottery chances.

[Ordinary Man]

when did they change the rules for the Cardinals?

because I'm sorely confused

This is what Derrick posted in his chat. I have seen it being discussed here for awhile, and I sure as hell have no idea how it works, but I saw this in his chat. If that's the case, I'm hoping for some more luck.

Cardinals are eligible for a lottery (top six pick) in 2026 if they do not make the playoffs.

Again, the Cardinals ARE eligible for a lottery pick (top six) if they do not make the playoffs.

That is double-checked with MLB, the CBA, and the Cardinals, and I circled back on that just to be sure today. Hope that helps.

I do not know where the confusion began but it's possibly related to the Cardinals have access to the lottery in consecutive years. They did not get lottery picks (top six) in consecutive years, however as they "lost" the lottery in 2024 and picked 7th. They "won" the lottery in 2025 to pick 5th. Top six picks are considered lottery picks.


The CBA spells that out, and if the confusion comes from payor/payee stuff, then I get it. Cardinals are not a payor. So they are not limited to one lottery pick. They are entering payee for the first time this season and that would change their status. They're limited to two consecutive lottery picks. They have one, in Doyle. They can get another in 2026.

Thanks for the post and update.

The lottery is still a roll of the dice or pick of a ping pong ball. The Cardinals are somewhere around the bottom 12. They don't tank well. Also I will find it difficult to root for them to lose, so may just not even watch.

So now their decision to not bring up JJW is a brilliant tank move and effort that they remain revenue share receivers?

The compensation round pick may be the most significant thing out of all this based on lottery chances.

No need to root for them to lose. They seem to have that covered without any help. So don't beat yourself up.

[imyourhuckleberry]

Here's an article breaking it down a little. Mostly the same info as what's already in the thread with a little bit extra

https://redbirdrants.com/it-turns-out-t ... -this-year

[HorseTrader]

But the ever informative Tankathon shows the Cards as ineligible for top ten and worse, the position is ineligible to play in the lotto and perhaps grab a better pick. (It does not say ineligible to play lotto, but the Cards only move backwards.)

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

MrPostman, I think you are reading the chart wrong. It shows the Cards as having .95% chance at the #1 pick. That's IF we finish 15th overall. The chart shows 3 teams as being ineligible, Rockies, Nationals and Angels.

That site also has a SOS (Schedule of Strength) chart for the remaining season. It shoulds the Cards as the 4th worst at .517, Dodgers as 2nd best at .466. Cubs have the 3rd best and Brewers 8th worst. We could easily move up to top 10 on the bad (worst record) list.

That's all IF I'm reading the crazy chart right.

[82birds]

If DG is correct, then being sub .500 is a good thing.
ten or so games under .500 even better.

settle down, that is just my opinion.

[craviduce]

But the ever informative Tankathon shows the Cards as ineligible for top ten and worse, the position is ineligible to play in the lotto and perhaps grab a better pick. (It does not say ineligible to play lotto, but the Cards only move backwards.)

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

MrPostman, I think you are reading the chart wrong. It shows the Cards as having .95% chance at the #1 pick. That's IF we finish 15th overall. The chart shows 3 teams as being ineligible, Rockies, Nationals and Angels.

That site also has a SOS (Schedule of Strength) chart for the remaining season. It shoulds the Cards as the 4th worst at .517, Dodgers as 2nd best at .466. Cubs have the 3rd best and Brewers 8th worst. We could easily move up to top 10 on the bad (worst record) list.

That's all IF I'm reading the crazy chart right.

Both of you read it correctly...at the time you read it. Tankathon didn't change their St. Louis Cardinals status until this morning. For the last 8 1/2 months it used to read the same as the Rockies, Nationals and Angels. Now it reads with an actual % chance to win the lottery.

Something changed very recently about our Receiving/Paying status with Revenue.

I was eventually wrong on this....good to know, and actually good for the Club.

We're not very far out of the Bottom 5 which would almost guarantee we land in the Top 7 or 8 after the lottery.

[cardinalsfever44]

So I guess we’re all in tank mode now?

Tank for Roch Cholowsky?

[craviduce]

So I guess we’re all in tank mode now?

Tank for Roch Cholowsky?

I would....get our team as close to 4th worse in the league....get into the Lottery or 1 out.

it's not like we've been putting a good product or effort out there this year.

it's just that some on here have an issue saying/admitting the word "tank". And that's understandable.

[cardinalsfever44]

So I guess we’re all in tank mode now?

Tank for Roch Cholowsky?

I would....get our team as close to 4th worse in the league....get into the Lottery or 1 out.

it's not like we've been putting a good product or effort out there this year.

Agree. I hate losing, but man would another top 5 pick help this team out.

[craviduce]

So I guess we’re all in tank mode now?

Tank for Roch Cholowsky?

I would....get our team as close to 4th worse in the league....get into the Lottery or 1 out.

it's not like we've been putting a good product or effort out there this year.

Agree. I hate losing, but man would another top 5 pick help this team out.

Best Player Available, that's my mantra to drafting, but a RHB bopper would be sweet. Even a LHB bopper. We need power in the batting order in a bad way.