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Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 07:23 am
by Jobu's Rum
Ronnie Dobbs wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:07 am
Goldfan wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:18 pm
I don’t like this for the St. Louis Cardinals, to put it mildly. Yes, Helsley’s a rental, so it won’t be hard for them to end up “winning” the deal in terms of value returned — if any of these guys gets to the majors, which is not a guarantee, they’ll probably come out ahead by WAR or your metric of choice. Helsley was one of the best relievers on the market, though, and this can’t have been the best possible return.
You saw what THE BEST reliever in the market got. He was younger, better, and had two full years of control.
This is a comparable deal.
Yeah, offseason Hels would have got more than this, people are not seeing that this was 2025 Hels and not 2024 Hels
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 07:47 am
by An Old Friend
woofy25 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:21 am
hmoss859 wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:25 pm
Keith Law can be petty and vicious in his analysis of certain players.
If he were that good of a talent evaluator, he would be a high-ranking MLB front office guy.
He is not.
Dude always seems bitter in any write up I see.
Does anybody track Keith Law’s success as a prospect prognosticator? I doubt he has an impressive record.
He's highly respected among his peers and has been paid to do this for a long time. He actually scouts players whereas a lot of prospect guys crowdsource and scout slash lines.
I question why you doubt his record.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 08:05 am
by Goldfan
An Old Friend wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:47 am
woofy25 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:21 am
hmoss859 wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:25 pm
Keith Law can be petty and vicious in his analysis of certain players.
If he were that good of a talent evaluator, he would be a high-ranking MLB front office guy.
He is not.
Dude always seems bitter in any write up I see.
Does anybody track Keith Law’s success as a prospect prognosticator? I doubt he has an impressive record.
He's highly respected among his peers and has been paid to do this for a long time. He actually scouts players whereas a lot of prospect guys crowdsource and scout slash lines.
I question why you doubt his record.
So you admit it was a bad deal…..what did Cards get out of this other then not paying the remainder of Helsley salary?
More minor league filler…….well bully for Springfield and Memphis….perhaps the orgs objective is to have minor league talent for their minor league teams…..Cranny will be happy
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 08:12 am
by woofy25
An Old Friend wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:47 am
woofy25 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:21 am
hmoss859 wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:25 pm
Keith Law can be petty and vicious in his analysis of certain players.
If he were that good of a talent evaluator, he would be a high-ranking MLB front office guy.
He is not.
Dude always seems bitter in any write up I see.
Does anybody track Keith Law’s success as a prospect prognosticator? I doubt he has an impressive record.
He's highly respected among his peers and has been paid to do this for a long time. He actually scouts players whereas a lot of prospect guys crowdsource and scout slash lines.
I question why you doubt his record.
Is he respected because of longevity or because of how spot on he is with his analyses? l I'd bet it's the former. His top 100 lists are behind The Athletic's paywall, so I don't have full access to them. I do know he had Walker ranked #5 at one point and Gorman at #17. I'd be willing to bet he's wrong more often than he's right, just like all these "experts" on prospects. No, it's not fair to cherry pick, but those are two examples of getting it completely wrong, at least to-date. He may have been right about Herrera who he had ranked 75 at one point. But, then there's Graceffo and Hence who made the top 100 at various points as well.
My overall point is to take all these trade grades that involve prospects with a grain of salt. Some gave the Cardinals an A or B. Some like Law didn't like the deal. The fact is, nobody really has much of a clue. So, go ahead and let Keith Law influence your opinion if you want. I wouldn't.
Plus, who is anyone to say what the Cardinals got couldn't possibly have been the best return? So, is he suggesting the Cardinals turned down a better deal? How stupid is that? Either that, or he's saying the Cardinals aren't competent enough to get a better deal. I don't know. This stuff isn't all that complicated. Every franchise knows every stat in every nook and cranny on all guys they're considering adding. They all can gain intel on the mental make up of a guy. There is not much the Cardinals can say about Ryan Helsley that other organizations don't know. There are only a handful of teams interested in any one guy. You field all the offers, you get to the point of having to make a decision, and you pull the trigger. The Cardinals had a QO as the only leverage to trade a relief rental whose 99mph fastball is giving up an over .400 AVG this season. What exactly did Keith Law expect the Cardinals to get in return? It doesn't appear he described what they should have gotten that would have been so much better. He's an armchair talking head. And he makes a heck of a living doing it. God bless him.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 08:38 am
by Ronnie Dobbs
I guess I would compare Keith Law to how I view prospect rankings.
I value Baseball America and some of the big ones who dedicate tons of money and resources to ranking prospects. I gives me, a regular guy who follows this stuff to an extent, some sort of baseline to judge these players. But even then, you're going to get (often times big) differences in rankings between Baseball America, MLB, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, some of the local Cardinals prospect guys, etc. Whether that is team rankings or Top 100 rankings or MLB draft rankings.
And then every MLB organization has their own rankings on top of that, which we never get to see, so who knows how those look? But I'm guessing that they're throwing a lot more money into it than any of those other organizations because they have way more to lose if they're wrong.
What I'm getting at is that, yea, I definitely respect what Keith Law has to say. And I can definately see his points. Just like I can see the points of other people who are saying this is a good haul. Most importantly, I believe in Chaim Bloom and his team, and the moves by the organization since the draft seem to have their fingerprints all over them. High ceiling, low floor, but at least these guys have potential to be something.
And the return seems basically equivilent to what the market is this deadline for relievers of Helsley's stature. So, I'm going with it's a good trade.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 08:47 am
by rockondlouie
I have no clue on any of these Mets prospects Mo acquired, nor do expect anything to come from them.
It's C. Bloom's deal w/Boston and Blaze Jordan that intrigues me.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 09:01 am
by rockondlouie
I will say Nate Dohm appears to fit the (C. Bloom) mold, another power arm added to the minor league system.
Could be a future BP arm.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 09:28 am
by An Old Friend
woofy25 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 08:12 am
An Old Friend wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:47 am
woofy25 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:21 am
hmoss859 wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:25 pm
Keith Law can be petty and vicious in his analysis of certain players.
If he were that good of a talent evaluator, he would be a high-ranking MLB front office guy.
He is not.
Dude always seems bitter in any write up I see.
Does anybody track Keith Law’s success as a prospect prognosticator? I doubt he has an impressive record.
He's highly respected among his peers and has been paid to do this for a long time. He actually scouts players whereas a lot of prospect guys crowdsource and scout slash lines.
I question why you doubt his record.
Is he respected because of longevity or because of how spot on he is with his analyses? l I'd bet it's the former. His top 100 lists are behind The Athletic's paywall, so I don't have full access to them. I do know he had Walker ranked #5 at one point and Gorman at #17. I'd be willing to bet he's wrong more often than he's right, just like all these "experts" on prospects. No, it's not fair to cherry pick, but those are two examples of getting it completely wrong, at least to-date. He may have been right about Herrera who he had ranked 75 at one point. But, then there's Graceffo and Hence who made the top 100 at various points as well.
My overall point is to take all these trade grades that involve prospects with a grain of salt. Some gave the Cardinals an A or B. Some like Law didn't like the deal. The fact is, nobody really has much of a clue. So, go ahead and let Keith Law influence your opinion if you want. I wouldn't.
Plus, who is anyone to say what the Cardinals got couldn't possibly have been the best return? So, is he suggesting the Cardinals turned down a better deal? How stupid is that? Either that, or he's saying the Cardinals aren't competent enough to get a better deal. I don't know. This stuff isn't all that complicated. Every franchise knows every stat in every nook and cranny on all guys they're considering adding. They all can gain intel on the mental make up of a guy. There is not much the Cardinals can say about Ryan Helsley that other organizations don't know. There are only a handful of teams interested in any one guy. You field all the offers, you get to the point of having to make a decision, and you pull the trigger. The Cardinals had a QO as the only leverage to trade a relief rental whose 99mph fastball is giving up an over .400 AVG this season. What exactly did Keith Law expect the Cardinals to get in return? It doesn't appear he described what they should have gotten that would have been so much better. He's an armchair talking head. And he makes a heck of a living doing it. God bless him.
I like Keith. He's one of the primary reasons I initially subscribed to the Athletic. I think he personally scouts more players than a lot of his peers, and he's candid & transparent in his summaries. He also goes back and publishes pieces on guys he really missed on or was wrong about. I don't know any other prospect guys that do that - he shows actual accountability which is sorely lacking in journalism overall.
So when I'm reading up on prospects, he's the first one I look at.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 09:40 am
by Red Bird Classic
An Old Friend wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:47 am
woofy25 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:21 am
hmoss859 wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:25 pm
Keith Law can be petty and vicious in his analysis of certain players.
If he were that good of a talent evaluator, he would be a high-ranking MLB front office guy.
He is not.
Dude always seems bitter in any write up I see.
Does anybody track Keith Law’s success as a prospect prognosticator? I doubt he has an impressive record.
He's highly respected among his peers and has been paid to do this for a long time. He actually scouts players whereas a lot of prospect guys crowdsource and scout slash lines.
I question why you doubt his record.
Being valued as a talent evaluator does not mean he's a good evaluator of talent. Look who's president.
Look at our own team president.
I don't see any evidence that Law is good at anything except self promotion. He does, at least take strong opinions which is good, but whether his opinions are worth anything to anyone but himself is debatable.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 09:41 am
by davdaddy
rockondlouie wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 08:47 am
I have no clue on any of these Mets prospects Mo acquired, nor do expect anything to come from them.
It's C. Bloom's deal w/Boston and Blaze Jordan that intrigues me.
Your prejudice continues to flare. Now you will assign one deal to your villain Mo because you "nor do expect anything to come from them"; and the other deal a couple hours later assigned to Bloom because "Blaze Jordan that intrigues me". You have spent months complaining about current management and pining for Bloom. This lack of objectivity is really hilarious. None of us "know" how these deals will turn out.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 09:44 am
by An Old Friend
Red Bird Classic wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 09:40 am
An Old Friend wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:47 am
woofy25 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:21 am
hmoss859 wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:25 pm
Keith Law can be petty and vicious in his analysis of certain players.
If he were that good of a talent evaluator, he would be a high-ranking MLB front office guy.
He is not.
Dude always seems bitter in any write up I see.
Does anybody track Keith Law’s success as a prospect prognosticator? I doubt he has an impressive record.
He's highly respected among his peers and has been paid to do this for a long time. He actually scouts players whereas a lot of prospect guys crowdsource and scout slash lines.
I question why you doubt his record.
Being valued as a talent evaluator does not mean he's a good evaluator of talent. Look who's president.
Look at our own team president.
I don't see any evidence that Law is good at anything except self promotion. He does, at least take strong opinions which is good, but whether his opinions are worth anything to anyone but himself is debatable.
Cool.
It has never been lost on me that you forever debated Yadier Molina's worth and value.
I think Keith does tremendous work in the field. You don't need to feel the same.
Your last statement is... not debatable. His opinions quite obviously have worth.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 09:47 am
by Carp4Cy
Baseball Savant wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:03 pm
Infielder Jesus Baez is the most talented of the three prospects the Cardinals received, easily top five in the Mets’ system just on raw tools, but he’s not a very good baseball player. His approach at the plate is just bad, he doesn’t play hard on either side of the ball, and he showed up out of shape this season. He has great bat speed and projects to plus power, although he gets ready so late at the plate, I’m surprised he can get to better velocity. He’(poop) .244/.334/.406 this year in High A as a 20-year-old after spending the first week in Low A, with just a 16.7 percent strikeout rate.
What the hell is the point of a 20 yo without a superstar ceiling who is 3-4 years away and doesn't look great when we've already got a gold glove level SS who can field and hit at a 4 WAR level AND a MLB ready 22 YO potential star SS?
Can we please trade Baez and Blaze and whoever else for a MLB player we need?
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 09:56 am
by Red Bird Classic
An Old Friend wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 09:44 am
Red Bird Classic wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 09:40 am
An Old Friend wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:47 am
woofy25 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:21 am
hmoss859 wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:25 pm
Keith Law can be petty and vicious in his analysis of certain players.
If he were that good of a talent evaluator, he would be a high-ranking MLB front office guy.
He is not.
Dude always seems bitter in any write up I see.
Does anybody track Keith Law’s success as a prospect prognosticator? I doubt he has an impressive record.
He's highly respected among his peers and has been paid to do this for a long time. He actually scouts players whereas a lot of prospect guys crowdsource and scout slash lines.
I question why you doubt his record.
Being valued as a talent evaluator does not mean he's a good evaluator of talent. Look who's president.
Look at our own team president.
I don't see any evidence that Law is good at anything except self promotion. He does, at least take strong opinions which is good, but whether his opinions are worth anything to anyone but himself is debatable.
Cool.
It has never been lost on me that you forever debated Yadier Molina's worth and value.
I think Keith does tremendous work in the field. You don't need to feel the same.
Your last statement is... not debatable. His opinions quite obviously have worth.
Just because you get paid to do something does not mean you are good at it. Law gets a return on his efforts-- his opinions have value to him personally -- but there's no evidence that his opinions provide value to anyone else.
Law knows a bit about baseball. But he's basically an opinion guy, like Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless but with a bit more tack and a background that provides a hint of legitimacy. Law is paid because he voices opinions pretty well, and dresses his words up some understanding of statistics. Bottom line: I don't see any evidence that Law is any better at evaluating talent than you are.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 10:07 am
by Clubmaker2
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 09:47 am
Baseball Savant wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:03 pm
Infielder Jesus Baez is the most talented of the three prospects the Cardinals received, easily top five in the Mets’ system just on raw tools, but he’s not a very good baseball player. His approach at the plate is just bad, he doesn’t play hard on either side of the ball, and he showed up out of shape this season. He has great bat speed and projects to plus power, although he gets ready so late at the plate, I’m surprised he can get to better velocity. He’(poop) .244/.334/.406 this year in High A as a 20-year-old after spending the first week in Low A, with just a 16.7 percent strikeout rate.
What the hell is the point of a 20 yo without a superstar ceiling who is 3-4 years away and doesn't look great when we've already got a gold glove level SS who can field and hit at a 4 WAR level AND a MLB ready 22 YO potential star SS?
Can we please trade Baez and Blaze and whoever else for a MLB player we need?
I feel a bit of this sentiment, and not collect the hundredth guy in line to DH only due to lack of everything else.. Low strikeout rate does sound hopeful, that was one thing that stuck out about Burly early.
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 10:22 am
by rockondlouie
davdaddy wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 09:41 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 08:47 am
I have no clue on any of these Mets prospects Mo acquired, nor do expect anything to come from them.
It's C. Bloom's deal w/Boston and Blaze Jordan that intrigues me.
Your prejudice continues to flare. Now you will assign one deal to your villain Mo because you "nor do expect anything to come from them"; and the other deal a couple hours later assigned to Bloom because "Blaze Jordan that intrigues me". You have spent months complaining about current management and pining for Bloom. This lack of objectivity is really hilarious. None of us "know" how these deals will turn out.
Ah, poor little davdaddy got his Mo loving feelings hurt again.
No dumb a z z like anyone w/half a brain it's pretty easy to reason Bloom makes the deal w/the Sox since he knows the system and especially this kid,
Moron
Re: Keith Law not impressed with Cards trade, breakdown of Baez
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 10:29 am
by woofy25
An Old Friend wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 09:28 am
woofy25 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 08:12 am
An Old Friend wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:47 am
woofy25 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:21 am
hmoss859 wrote: ↑30 Jul 2025 22:25 pm
Keith Law can be petty and vicious in his analysis of certain players.
If he were that good of a talent evaluator, he would be a high-ranking MLB front office guy.
He is not.
Dude always seems bitter in any write up I see.
Does anybody track Keith Law’s success as a prospect prognosticator? I doubt he has an impressive record.
He's highly respected among his peers and has been paid to do this for a long time. He actually scouts players whereas a lot of prospect guys crowdsource and scout slash lines.
I question why you doubt his record.
Is he respected because of longevity or because of how spot on he is with his analyses? l I'd bet it's the former. His top 100 lists are behind The Athletic's paywall, so I don't have full access to them. I do know he had Walker ranked #5 at one point and Gorman at #17. I'd be willing to bet he's wrong more often than he's right, just like all these "experts" on prospects. No, it's not fair to cherry pick, but those are two examples of getting it completely wrong, at least to-date. He may have been right about Herrera who he had ranked 75 at one point. But, then there's Graceffo and Hence who made the top 100 at various points as well.
My overall point is to take all these trade grades that involve prospects with a grain of salt. Some gave the Cardinals an A or B. Some like Law didn't like the deal. The fact is, nobody really has much of a clue. So, go ahead and let Keith Law influence your opinion if you want. I wouldn't.
Plus, who is anyone to say what the Cardinals got couldn't possibly have been the best return? So, is he suggesting the Cardinals turned down a better deal? How stupid is that? Either that, or he's saying the Cardinals aren't competent enough to get a better deal. I don't know. This stuff isn't all that complicated. Every franchise knows every stat in every nook and cranny on all guys they're considering adding. They all can gain intel on the mental make up of a guy. There is not much the Cardinals can say about Ryan Helsley that other organizations don't know. There are only a handful of teams interested in any one guy. You field all the offers, you get to the point of having to make a decision, and you pull the trigger. The Cardinals had a QO as the only leverage to trade a relief rental whose 99mph fastball is giving up an over .400 AVG this season. What exactly did Keith Law expect the Cardinals to get in return? It doesn't appear he described what they should have gotten that would have been so much better. He's an armchair talking head. And he makes a heck of a living doing it. God bless him.
I like Keith. He's one of the primary reasons I initially subscribed to the Athletic. I think he personally scouts more players than a lot of his peers, and he's candid & transparent in his summaries. He also goes back and publishes pieces on guys he really missed on or was wrong about. I don't know any other prospect guys that do that - he shows actual accountability which is sorely lacking in journalism overall.
So when I'm reading up on prospects, he's the first one I look at.
Fair enough and good on him for holding himself accountable to some extent. I just wouldn’t take what any of these guys say as gospel. It’s too hard. Time will tell.
One thing is for certain, Ryan helsley provided zero value to a losing cardinals team for the rest of 2025. As I’ve said a hundred times, he and fedde should have been traded over the winter. They got three prospects for him. The two pitchers seem to be performing well to me. Not sure why everybody thinks they’re garbage. Both have reasonable eras with over 10 SO9. Dohm needs to lower his whip. Elissalts whip is excellent. They seem intriguing to me.