STLtoday.com

82birds wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 10:56 am

bluecard04 wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 09:03 am I would think odds are the Cards won’t pitch him again.
Why would they chance injury or another blown save this close to the deadline?

if there is a save opportunity today and Oli brings in somebody else, you'll have your answer.

Mid. wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 09:43 am Still plenty of days to sit back & wait for contending teams to panick.

HOUCARD wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 11:14 am As usual, many things will be rumored, few, if any, things will be done. Moe has been talking and not doing for years.

Melville wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 11:56 am

ClassicO wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 10:28 am

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 10:05 am

Melville wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 09:57 am Fear and timidity have defined Super Slo Mo for a long time.
Allowing fear of injury over the next 4 or 5 days to define the timing of a trade, versus focusing on the best possible deal for STL, would be complete foolishness.
And, as others have noted, the decision to sell make not have been made yet.
STL can keep him and get a comp pick if they prefer.

More horse [shirt] from Smellville.

Yep. He advocated a 4-yr., $68M extension for a guy whose best years are behind him.

Truthful, accurate (well, not quite, but I am charitable and kind by nature) description of my position.
While this is quite the exception for you, it is limited progress of sorts, and has thereby earned a reply (which I graciously offer as encouragement for you to continue down this rather rare path.
Reality is, I did not advocate for a 4 yr / 68M deal to begin this off-season.
I actually stated (with perfectly correct analysis, of course) that they should offer to sign him for than LAST fall - buying out his wlk year and the 3 years following.
So, let's do the math.
He is making 8.2 M this year.
Sunk cost.
My approach would have added 59.8 M over 4 seasons.
That is a bit less than 15M per season.
Excellent value for one of the best closers in the game.
And would bring certainty to the role - as much as that can ever be achieved.
Is Helsey worth 15M this season?
By top 5 closer standards, yes.
Will he get 15M x 3 years on the open market this coming off-season?
Unless he blows out his arm, yes.
So, I do appreciate you reminding the board of the advice I provided last fall.
In retrospect, it appears my analysis was perfect.
You should expect nothing less.
Congrats on a quality contribution to the thread.
Perhaps this little, but genuine, pat on the back will persuade you do more of the same.

ClassicO wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 12:29 pm

Melville wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 11:56 am

ClassicO wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 10:28 am

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 10:05 am

Melville wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 09:57 am Fear and timidity have defined Super Slo Mo for a long time.
Allowing fear of injury over the next 4 or 5 days to define the timing of a trade, versus focusing on the best possible deal for STL, would be complete foolishness.
And, as others have noted, the decision to sell make not have been made yet.
STL can keep him and get a comp pick if they prefer.

More horse [shirt] from Smellville.

Yep. He advocated a 4-yr., $68M extension for a guy whose best years are behind him.

Truthful, accurate (well, not quite, but I am charitable and kind by nature) description of my position.
While this is quite the exception for you, it is limited progress of sorts, and has thereby earned a reply (which I graciously offer as encouragement for you to continue down this rather rare path.
Reality is, I did not advocate for a 4 yr / 68M deal to begin this off-season.
I actually stated (with perfectly correct analysis, of course) that they should offer to sign him for than LAST fall - buying out his wlk year and the 3 years following.
So, let's do the math.
He is making 8.2 M this year.
Sunk cost.
My approach would have added 59.8 M over 4 seasons.
That is a bit less than 15M per season.
Excellent value for one of the best closers in the game.
And would bring certainty to the role - as much as that can ever be achieved.
Is Helsey worth 15M this season?
By top 5 closer standards, yes.
Will he get 15M x 3 years on the open market this coming off-season?
Unless he blows out his arm, yes.
So, I do appreciate you reminding the board of the advice I provided last fall.
In retrospect, it appears my analysis was perfect.
You should expect nothing less.
Congrats on a quality contribution to the thread.
Perhaps this little, but genuine, pat on the back will persuade you do more of the same.

No. You said:
Melville wrote: ↑30 May 2025 08:41 am

Offer 4 year extension.
17M a year, with 3M deferred annually and payable beginning in 2030.

That's an "extension" = after 2025.
And the deferrals don't stop the luxury tax from using the FMV of those dollars, so it's over 2M/yr. added on = $16M+/yr.

82birds wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 12:23 pm

HOUCARD wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 11:14 am As usual, many things will be rumored, few, if any, things will be done. Moe has been talking and not doing for years.

^^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^^

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:04 pm Iglesias
Bautista
Duran
Finnegan
Fairbanks
Chapman
Jansen
Bednar
Clase
Pagan

…all likely available closers, and I’m probably missing a few. And how many teams are seriously hunting one?

Dodgers
Tigers
Blue Jays
Phillies

It might be challenging to find a good return for Helsley when there are so many available options.

They very well might end up paying a closer $20M+ next season.

82birds wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 10:56 am

bluecard04 wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 09:03 am I would think odds are the Cards won’t pitch him again.
Why would they chance injury or another blown save this close to the deadline?

if there is a save opportunity today and Oli brings in somebody else, you'll have your answer.

kyace wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:35 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:04 pm Iglesias
Bautista
Duran
Finnegan
Fairbanks
Chapman
Jansen
Bednar
Clase
Pagan

…all likely available closers, and I’m probably missing a few. And how many teams are seriously hunting one?

Dodgers
Tigers
Blue Jays
Phillies

It might be challenging to find a good return for Helsley when there are so many available options.

Clase and Duran have multiple years of control and will cost a ton. Chapman is not being moved by Red Sox and he hurt his back today, Red Sox may join the group looking for a closer. Fairbanks has another year of control and Rays would want a ton. Iglesias has an era of around 5.
Cubs and Rangers now looking for high leverage bullpen arm, also almost every team in the race is looking for bullpen help. Helsley will be in high demand.

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 18:08 pm

kyace wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:35 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:04 pm Iglesias
Bautista
Duran
Finnegan
Fairbanks
Chapman
Jansen
Bednar
Clase
Pagan

…all likely available closers, and I’m probably missing a few. And how many teams are seriously hunting one?

Dodgers
Tigers
Blue Jays
Phillies

It might be challenging to find a good return for Helsley when there are so many available options.

Clase and Duran have multiple years of control and will cost a ton. Chapman is not being moved by Red Sox and he hurt his back today, Red Sox may join the group looking for a closer. Fairbanks has another year of control and Rays would want a ton. Iglesias has an era of around 5.
Cubs and Rangers now looking for high leverage bullpen arm, also almost every team in the race is looking for bullpen help. Helsley will be in high demand.

There’s no doubt they’ll get a lot of calls on Helsley. The point is that there are more available closers than teams in need… so if they set the price for Helsley too high, teams will not hesitate to look elsewhere.

Bomber1 wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 11:17 am

Melville wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 09:57 am Fear and timidity have defined Super Slo Mo for a long time.
Allowing fear of injury over the next 4 or 5 days to define the timing of a trade, versus focusing on the best possible deal for STL, would be complete foolishness.
And, as others have noted, the decision to sell make not have been made yet.
STL can keep him and get a comp pick if they prefer.

Just like they would have gotten if they had given Goldschmidt a QO?

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 18:08 pm

kyace wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:35 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:04 pm Iglesias
Bautista
Duran
Finnegan
Fairbanks
Chapman
Jansen
Bednar
Clase
Pagan

…all likely available closers, and I’m probably missing a few. And how many teams are seriously hunting one?

Dodgers
Tigers
Blue Jays
Phillies

It might be challenging to find a good return for Helsley when there are so many available options.

Clase and Duran have multiple years of control and will cost a ton. Chapman is not being moved by Red Sox and he hurt his back today, Red Sox may join the group looking for a closer. Fairbanks has another year of control and Rays would want a ton. Iglesias has an era of around 5.
Cubs and Rangers now looking for high leverage bullpen arm, also almost every team in the race is looking for bullpen help. Helsley will be in high demand.

There’s no doubt they’ll get a lot of calls on Helsley. The point is that there are more available closers than teams in need… so if they set the price for Helsley too high, teams will not hesitate to look elsewhere.e

makesnosense wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 19:53 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 18:08 pm

kyace wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:35 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:04 pm Iglesias
Bautista
Duran
Finnegan
Fairbanks
Chapman
Jansen
Bednar
Clase
Pagan

…all likely available closers, and I’m probably missing a few. And how many teams are seriously hunting one?

Dodgers
Tigers
Blue Jays
Phillies

It might be challenging to find a good return for Helsley when there are so many available options.

Clase and Duran have multiple years of control and will cost a ton. Chapman is not being moved by Red Sox and he hurt his back today, Red Sox may join the group looking for a closer. Fairbanks has another year of control and Rays would want a ton. Iglesias has an era of around 5.
Cubs and Rangers now looking for high leverage bullpen arm, also almost every team in the race is looking for bullpen help. Helsley will be in high demand.

There’s no doubt they’ll get a lot of calls on Helsley. The point is that there are more available closers than teams in need… so if they set the price for Helsley too high, teams will not hesitate to look elsewhere.e

The Dodgers don't need a closer They for sure sure don't need a failing one who is no better than what they have. If it is throwing with Donovan that's different.

makesnosense wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 19:53 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 18:08 pm

kyace wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:35 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Jul 2025 17:04 pm Iglesias
Bautista
Duran
Finnegan
Fairbanks
Chapman
Jansen
Bednar
Clase
Pagan

…all likely available closers, and I’m probably missing a few. And how many teams are seriously hunting one?

Dodgers
Tigers
Blue Jays
Phillies

It might be challenging to find a good return for Helsley when there are so many available options.

Clase and Duran have multiple years of control and will cost a ton. Chapman is not being moved by Red Sox and he hurt his back today, Red Sox may join the group looking for a closer. Fairbanks has another year of control and Rays would want a ton. Iglesias has an era of around 5.
Cubs and Rangers now looking for high leverage bullpen arm, also almost every team in the race is looking for bullpen help. Helsley will be in high demand.

There’s no doubt they’ll get a lot of calls on Helsley. The point is that there are more available closers than teams in need… so if they set the price for Helsley too high, teams will not hesitate to look elsewhere.e

The Dodgers don't need a closer They for sure sure don't need a failing one who is no better than what they have. If it is throwing with Donovan that's different.