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woofy25 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 14:53 pm The math is wrong and the cardinals are currently on a 22 inning scoreless streak against the cubs. They’re on pace to beat the cardinals by 9 games in the standings. They’ve scored more runs and also given up fewer. But they’re overrated. Ok,I guess if you look at enough numbers one can string enough together to tell any story you want. But, looking at the surface level stats often tell you all you need to know.
Bernie also used his advanced numbers last offseason to try to convince people Paul Goldschmidt was poised for a great 2024. He also tried to make a case that Arenado was going to have a good season in ‘25 bc of a good slugging percentage at home last season. He didn’t realize that Arenado hit over .300 at Busch with a bunch of singles that increased his slg compared to his overall .242 BA
The cubs are, at present, a better team than the cardinals and it’s pretty obvious.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 08:47 am This is some very interesting info from Bernie, should make Cardinal fans feel a lot better about where we stand vs the Scrubs.

Note:
This article was written two days ago, before the Cards lost two to the scrubs so adjust some numbers

CUBS: OVERRATED?

Through Tuesday night only 2 and ½ games separated Chicago and St. Louis in the standings. That reflects well on the Cardinals because the Cubs have played a much easier schedule.

I looked at each team’s record against the MLB teams that are in the bottom seven in overall winning percentage.

Those stinky teams are the Rockies, White Sox, A’s, Pirates, Marlins, Nationals and Orioles. Through Tuesday, that group of seven were collectively 143 games under .500. The Orioles were nine games under .500. The other six ranged from 13 games under .500 to 43 games under .500.

The Cubs have had a lot of games, 25, against the seven weakest teams in the majors. And it’s no surprise to see the Cubs with a 15-5 record against the bottom seven. The .800 winning percentage in those games looks good for the Cubs. The good teams are supposed to beat up the bad teams.

But here’s the thing. The Cardinals have the same .800 winning percentage against the seven worst teams in MLB. But unlike the Cubs, who stacked victories in 25 games against the losingest teams, the Cardinals have played only 15 games against the sorriest assortment of teams in the majors. And the Cardinals have done very well against them, going 12-3.

The point: considering that St. Louis has played 10 fewer games than the Cubs in the matchups against the most hapless teams, the Cardinals have done a (drat) good job to be only 2 and ½ games in back of the Cubs.

OK, but what about the records against opponents that currently rank in the top 10 in MLB for winning percentage? Actually, it’s the top 11 because the Cardinals and Brewers are tied for 10th with a .550 winning percentage.

Here’s what I learned about the Cubs and the Cardinals when they’ve gone up against the teams that have a top 11 winning percentage so far in 2025.

Cubs: 12-17

Cardinals: 16-15

To recap: the Cubs have beaten the drivel out of the seven most pathetic teams this season … and have had 25 games to do so. The Cardinals have also roughed up the gang of the worst seven … but have had 10 fewer games than the Cubs against the weak-link teams.

But when the Cubs and Cardinals match up against opponents that rank among the top 11 in winning percentage through June 24, it looks like this: St. Louis, .516 winning percentage. Chicago: .414 winning pct.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

AtillaTheBlue1 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 15:55 pm MLB is not good

Another year of bad baseball and mediocrity.


Last year Cardinals should of been 30-40 under, instead because of how bad the league was, they could of gone on a couple runs and got to .500.This year same stuff, bad baseball, and the bad teams arent much worse than the middling 5-10 games over teams.

obviously rockies n such are the lowest of the low, but you have 20 mediocre to below average teams, cardinals included

AtillaTheBlue1 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 15:55 pm MLB is not good

Another year of bad baseball and mediocrity.


Last year Cardinals should of been 30-40 under, instead because of how bad the league was, they could of gone on a couple runs and got to .500.This year same stuff, bad baseball, and the bad teams arent much worse than the middling 5-10 games over teams.

obviously rockies n such are the lowest of the low, but you have 20 mediocre to below average teams, cardinals included

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 16:11 pm

AtillaTheBlue1 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 15:55 pm MLB is not good

Another year of bad baseball and mediocrity.


Last year Cardinals should of been 30-40 under, instead because of how bad the league was, they could of gone on a couple runs and got to .500.This year same stuff, bad baseball, and the bad teams arent much worse than the middling 5-10 games over teams.

obviously rockies n such are the lowest of the low, but you have 20 mediocre to below average teams, cardinals included

So who are the 3-5 atillatheblue approved good teams then? Because that would be all that’s left it seems.

AtillaTheBlue1 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 16:22 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 16:11 pm

AtillaTheBlue1 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 15:55 pm MLB is not good

Another year of bad baseball and mediocrity.


Last year Cardinals should of been 30-40 under, instead because of how bad the league was, they could of gone on a couple runs and got to .500.This year same stuff, bad baseball, and the bad teams arent much worse than the middling 5-10 games over teams.

obviously rockies n such are the lowest of the low, but you have 20 mediocre to below average teams, cardinals included

So who are the 3-5 atillatheblue approved good teams then? Because that would be all that’s left it seems.

I'm not sure there are 3-5 Good teams.

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 15:05 pm

woofy25 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 14:53 pm The math is wrong and the cardinals are currently on a 22 inning scoreless streak against the cubs. They’re on pace to beat the cardinals by 9 games in the standings. They’ve scored more runs and also given up fewer. But they’re overrated. Ok,I guess if you look at enough numbers one can string enough together to tell any story you want. But, looking at the surface level stats often tell you all you need to know.
Bernie also used his advanced numbers last offseason to try to convince people Paul Goldschmidt was poised for a great 2024. He also tried to make a case that Arenado was going to have a good season in ‘25 bc of a good slugging percentage at home last season. He didn’t realize that Arenado hit over .300 at Busch with a bunch of singles that increased his slg compared to his overall .242 BA
The cubs are, at present, a better team than the cardinals and it’s pretty obvious.

Unfortunately for the Cubs they are almost completely done with playing the terrible teams. They have 15 games left vs the bottom 7 teams. The Cardinals have 25 games left against the bottom 7 teams. If they both were to win at a .700 clip in the games against the terrible teams (Cards are 12-3 in the 15 games they already have, Cubs 20-5), that’s an extra 7-3 record. Even if the Cubs managed to go .500 in those extra 10 games against tougher competition, that’s brings us 2 games closer.

But as of right now, that extra 10 games is likely a big difference in the run differential that the Cubs have. Almost their entire positive run differential is from the really bad teams. Their run differential against the bottom 7 teams is +87 in 25 games.

woofy25 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 17:37 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 15:05 pm

woofy25 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 14:53 pm The math is wrong and the cardinals are currently on a 22 inning scoreless streak against the cubs. They’re on pace to beat the cardinals by 9 games in the standings. They’ve scored more runs and also given up fewer. But they’re overrated. Ok,I guess if you look at enough numbers one can string enough together to tell any story you want. But, looking at the surface level stats often tell you all you need to know.
Bernie also used his advanced numbers last offseason to try to convince people Paul Goldschmidt was poised for a great 2024. He also tried to make a case that Arenado was going to have a good season in ‘25 bc of a good slugging percentage at home last season. He didn’t realize that Arenado hit over .300 at Busch with a bunch of singles that increased his slg compared to his overall .242 BA
The cubs are, at present, a better team than the cardinals and it’s pretty obvious.

Unfortunately for the Cubs they are almost completely done with playing the terrible teams. They have 15 games left vs the bottom 7 teams. The Cardinals have 25 games left against the bottom 7 teams. If they both were to win at a .700 clip in the games against the terrible teams (Cards are 12-3 in the 15 games they already have, Cubs 20-5), that’s an extra 7-3 record. Even if the Cubs managed to go .500 in those extra 10 games against tougher competition, that’s brings us 2 games closer.

But as of right now, that extra 10 games is likely a big difference in the run differential that the Cubs have. Almost their entire positive run differential is from the really bad teams. Their run differential against the bottom 7 teams is +87 in 25 games.

I’ll concede the sos. Though, the cubs are done with the padres, Phillies and dodgers.
However, the cubs top 4 hitters, Tucker, Suzuki, pca, and Busch would all be the best hitter on the cardinals. And sonny gray would be the cubs third starter. Maybe that’s all a product of schedule. Maybe it’s not

AtillaTheBlue1 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 16:22 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 16:11 pm

AtillaTheBlue1 wrote: ↑27 Jun 2025 15:55 pm MLB is not good

Another year of bad baseball and mediocrity.


Last year Cardinals should of been 30-40 under, instead because of how bad the league was, they could of gone on a couple runs and got to .500.This year same stuff, bad baseball, and the bad teams arent much worse than the middling 5-10 games over teams.

obviously rockies n such are the lowest of the low, but you have 20 mediocre to below average teams, cardinals included

So who are the 3-5 atillatheblue approved good teams then? Because that would be all that’s left it seems.

I'm not sure there are 3-5 Good teams.