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Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 07:13 am
by renostl
2ninr wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 05:28 am
IndCard75 wrote: ↑16 Jun 2025 20:21 pm
Probably best case scenario the Yankees, because they are probably only team in contention that can afford to pay him what his contract is for that production, gets involved in trade talks with us.
We would probably have to give them Helsley Maton Fedde with Arenado to get Yankees to take him and the contract. Then hope Arenado accepts it.
In theory that's one way to move him-as a throw in. But you have to get something back in that scenario.
Any team trading for Arenado has to want him and see him as improvement over what they currently have as a full-time or nearly full-time 3B. I don't see teams rushing to the window to get him and employing him as their 3B simply because he's a bargain, JMO.
Those teams will have to be in contention or NA will have zero desire to go there.
The lubricant for most teams in contention will be money and or pitching. The Cardinals have both available. Matz or Fedde are attractive to most as does $10 -$14 million make NA a reasonable cost player.
Those 3 want to's of the team, the Cardinals, and NA just have to come together. I agree with Melville on this one.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 07:18 am
by Ike Hammett
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 05:18 am
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑16 Jun 2025 20:28 pm
The reality of Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal is this fanbase is nuts. Arenado has been a good Cardinal. According to baseball reference he has a WAR of 17.8 with the club in 4+ seasons. If you take the standard of $7 to $10 million for 1 WAR as a free agent, along with including the Rockies picking up some of that tab and his pay going down the next 2 seasons he is okay being an average to slightly above league average hitter 100- 110 ops+ with an above average glove. Hopefully he can squeeze out another 6-7 WAR in his last 2+ years.
He is a good deal when you take into account he really made the team the true contender everyone wanted a few years back when he was putting up MVP caliber numbers. Sad how so many loons took that for granted and still whine about those teams "not trying" and the club being cheap. Nado is great, you all suck and spoiled.
And it would have still been better for the Cardinals to have found a way to trade him and Goldschmidt for prospects back at the trading deadline in 2023 when they were on their way to limping to a 71-91 record.
You guys get everything backwards. You buy low and sell high. On paper that was a better team than the 2022 club that won the division and 90+ games. Nobody really knows what happened to end up with 71 wins. It was way better to try and run it back with some pitching pick ups like they did. Even Monday morning quarterbacking you can't really find and better deals than the ones that were got on Goldy and Nado. So just give up and not try to even be competitive?
You aren't getting rich buying lottery tickets and penny stocks. You invest Warren Buffett style. You find high quality players at good deals (like Goldy and Nado, Contreras etc). You're model no good.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 07:30 am
by mattmitchl44
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 07:18 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 05:18 am
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑16 Jun 2025 20:28 pm
The reality of Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal is this fanbase is nuts. Arenado has been a good Cardinal. According to baseball reference he has a WAR of 17.8 with the club in 4+ seasons. If you take the standard of $7 to $10 million for 1 WAR as a free agent, along with including the Rockies picking up some of that tab and his pay going down the next 2 seasons he is okay being an average to slightly above league average hitter 100- 110 ops+ with an above average glove. Hopefully he can squeeze out another 6-7 WAR in his last 2+ years.
He is a good deal when you take into account he really made the team the true contender everyone wanted a few years back when he was putting up MVP caliber numbers. Sad how so many loons took that for granted and still whine about those teams "not trying" and the club being cheap. Nado is great, you all suck and spoiled.
And it would have still been better for the Cardinals to have found a way to trade him and Goldschmidt for prospects back at the trading deadline in 2023 when they were on their way to limping to a 71-91 record.
You guys get everything backwards.
You buy low and sell high. On paper that was a better team than the 2022 club that won the division and 90+ games. Nobody really knows what happened to end up with 71 wins. It was way better to try and run it back with some pitching pick ups like they did. Even Monday morning quarterbacking you can't really find and better deals than the ones that were got on Goldy and Nado. So just give up and not try to even be competitive?
You aren't getting rich buying lottery tickets and penny stocks. You invest Warren Buffett style. You find high quality players at good deals (like Goldy and Nado, Contreras etc). You're model no good.
Trading two, expensive aging players when they still had value back in 2023 would have been selling high.
What happened do that 2023 team is that the productivity of their young, cost controlled players bottomed out (at ~15 fWAR) and there was no way to make up for it.
In July 2023, they should have traded Arenado and Goldschmidt to get quality prospects back to rectify that problem sooner.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 08:02 am
by 2ninr
3dender wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 07:01 am
2ninr wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 05:28 am
IndCard75 wrote: ↑16 Jun 2025 20:21 pm
Probably best case scenario the Yankees, because they are probably only team in contention that can afford to pay him what his contract is for that production, gets involved in trade talks with us.
We would probably have to give them Helsley Maton Fedde with Arenado to get Yankees to take him and the contract. Then hope Arenado accepts it.
In theory that's one way to move him-as a throw in. But you have to get something back in that scenario.
It would be much better just to eat as much salary as they want. The main gain for the Cards in moving him is totally independent of any return: the positional flexibility.
Oh I agree 100%. It just frustrating not being able to get that done. Right now he's costing them more than just money.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 08:04 am
by Ike Hammett
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 07:30 am
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 07:18 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 05:18 am
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑16 Jun 2025 20:28 pm
The reality of Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal is this fanbase is nuts. Arenado has been a good Cardinal. According to baseball reference he has a WAR of 17.8 with the club in 4+ seasons. If you take the standard of $7 to $10 million for 1 WAR as a free agent, along with including the Rockies picking up some of that tab and his pay going down the next 2 seasons he is okay being an average to slightly above league average hitter 100- 110 ops+ with an above average glove. Hopefully he can squeeze out another 6-7 WAR in his last 2+ years.
He is a good deal when you take into account he really made the team the true contender everyone wanted a few years back when he was putting up MVP caliber numbers. Sad how so many loons took that for granted and still whine about those teams "not trying" and the club being cheap. Nado is great, you all suck and spoiled.
And it would have still been better for the Cardinals to have found a way to trade him and Goldschmidt for prospects back at the trading deadline in 2023 when they were on their way to limping to a 71-91 record.
You guys get everything backwards.
You buy low and sell high. On paper that was a better team than the 2022 club that won the division and 90+ games. Nobody really knows what happened to end up with 71 wins. It was way better to try and run it back with some pitching pick ups like they did. Even Monday morning quarterbacking you can't really find and better deals than the ones that were got on Goldy and Nado. So just give up and not try to even be competitive?
You aren't getting rich buying lottery tickets and penny stocks. You invest Warren Buffett style. You find high quality players at good deals (like Goldy and Nado, Contreras etc). You're model no good.
Trading two, expensive aging players when they still had value back in 2023 would have been selling high.
What happened do that 2023 team is that the productivity of their young, cost controlled players bottomed out (at ~15 fWAR) and there was no way to make up for it.
In July 2023, they should have traded Arenado and Goldschmidt to get quality prospects back to rectify that problem sooner.
Once again just bad logic and analysis! So which were they? Old washed up expensive players or guys of good value? You can't really have it both ways! The other clubs that .might have been interested thought they were of good value and could help them win big. Don't you want to win big too?
You think you are getting young Paul Skenes or Garrit Cole types for that? Those clubs that have guys like that is because they suck and are not committed to winning (like what you want). The Cardinals want to win, which means they are not getting the best draft pick consistently and not willing to let them develop at the cost of 70 win seasons. The Cards ended up with 83 wins the next year. They did trade some of their players in 2023 like Flaherty, Monty etc. They might have been a .500 team if they didn't. The Cards had 93 wins in 2022, they didn't go from 93 to 71 because of development especially when adding a big upgrade.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 08:29 am
by mattmitchl44
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:04 am
Once again just bad logic and analysis! So which were they? Old washed up expensive players or guys of good value? You can't really have it both ways! The other clubs that .might have been interested thought they were of good value and could help them win big. Don't you want to win big too?
Without a much more solid foundation of cost controlled young players, the Cardinals were in no position to "win big" with, or without, Arenado and Goldschmidt. 2024 proved to be another exercise in mediocrity even with them.
The Cardinals could have interested teams who WERE in a position to win big in Arenado and Goldschmidt back in 2023, gotten quality prospects in return, and be further along in rebuilding their foundation.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 08:38 am
by ecleme22
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:29 am
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:04 am
Once again just bad logic and analysis! So which were they? Old washed up expensive players or guys of good value? You can't really have it both ways! The other clubs that .might have been interested thought they were of good value and could help them win big. Don't you want to win big too?
Without a much more solid foundation of cost controlled young players, the Cardinals were in no position to "win big" with, or without, Arenado and Goldschmidt. 2024 proved to be another exercise in mediocrity even with them.
The Cardinals could have interested teams who WERE in a position to win big in Arenado and Goldschmidt back in 2023, gotten quality prospects in return, and be further along in rebuilding their foundation.
A big reason 2024 was a dud was because both NA and PG fell off a cliff.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 08:56 am
by mattmitchl44
ecleme22 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:38 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:29 am
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:04 am
Once again just bad logic and analysis! So which were they? Old washed up expensive players or guys of good value? You can't really have it both ways! The other clubs that .might have been interested thought they were of good value and could help them win big. Don't you want to win big too?
Without a much more solid foundation of cost controlled young players, the Cardinals were in no position to "win big" with, or without, Arenado and Goldschmidt. 2024 proved to be another exercise in mediocrity even with them.
The Cardinals could have interested teams who WERE in a position to win big in Arenado and Goldschmidt back in 2023, gotten quality prospects in return, and be further along in rebuilding their foundation.
A big reason 2024 was a dud was because both NA and PG fell off a cliff.
Which, given their ages, was always a strong possibility and why they should have been traded in 2023.
"It is better to trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late." - Branch Rickey
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 09:37 am
by JDW
2ninr wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:02 am
3dender wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 07:01 am
2ninr wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 05:28 am
IndCard75 wrote: ↑16 Jun 2025 20:21 pm
Probably best case scenario the Yankees, because they are probably only team in contention that can afford to pay him what his contract is for that production, gets involved in trade talks with us.
We would probably have to give them Helsley Maton Fedde with Arenado to get Yankees to take him and the contract. Then hope Arenado accepts it.
In theory that's one way to move him-as a throw in. But you have to get something back in that scenario.
It would be much better just to eat as much salary as they want. The main gain for the Cards in moving him is totally independent of any return: the positional flexibility.
Oh I agree 100%. It just frustrating not being able to get that done. Right now he's costing them more than just money.
Yes, in addition to costing money, Arenado is blocking the chance for the Cards to move forward with their reset. He's also blocking the chance to compete at a higher level, not only into the future, but also potentially currently imo.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 09:39 am
by Adam2
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑16 Jun 2025 20:28 pm
The reality of Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal is this fanbase is nuts. Arenado has been a good Cardinal. According to baseball reference he has a WAR of 17.8 with the club in 4+ seasons. If you take the standard of $7 to $10 million for 1 WAR as a free agent, along with including the Rockies picking up some of that tab and his pay going down the next 2 seasons he is okay being an average to slightly above league average hitter 100- 110 ops+ with an above average glove. Hopefully he can squeeze out another 6-7 WAR in his last 2+ years.
He is a good deal when you take into account he really made the team the true contender everyone wanted a few years back when he was putting up MVP caliber numbers. Sad how so many loons took that for granted and still whine about those teams "not trying" and the club being cheap. Nado is great, you all suck and spoiled.
He WAS a good deal, now he is a ball and chain. But you take the good with the bad
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 09:40 am
by mattmitchl44
JDW wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 09:37 am
2ninr wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:02 am
3dender wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 07:01 am
2ninr wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 05:28 am
IndCard75 wrote: ↑16 Jun 2025 20:21 pm
Probably best case scenario the Yankees, because they are probably only team in contention that can afford to pay him what his contract is for that production, gets involved in trade talks with us.
We would probably have to give them Helsley Maton Fedde with Arenado to get Yankees to take him and the contract. Then hope Arenado accepts it.
In theory that's one way to move him-as a throw in. But you have to get something back in that scenario.
It would be much better just to eat as much salary as they want. The main gain for the Cards in moving him is totally independent of any return: the positional flexibility.
Oh I agree 100%. It just frustrating not being able to get that done. Right now he's costing them more than just money.
Yes, in addition to costing money, Arenado is blocking the chance for the Cards to move forward with their reset. He's also blocking the chance to compete at a higher level, not only into the future, but also potentially currently imo.
Yeah, being able to start Donovan and Gorman consistently at 2B and 3B, in one way or the other, would be better, along with seeing more of Saggese.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 09:40 am
by ecleme22
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:56 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:38 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:29 am
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:04 am
Once again just bad logic and analysis! So which were they? Old washed up expensive players or guys of good value? You can't really have it both ways! The other clubs that .might have been interested thought they were of good value and could help them win big. Don't you want to win big too?
Without a much more solid foundation of cost controlled young players, the Cardinals were in no position to "win big" with, or without, Arenado and Goldschmidt. 2024 proved to be another exercise in mediocrity even with them.
The Cardinals could have interested teams who WERE in a position to win big in Arenado and Goldschmidt back in 2023, gotten quality prospects in return, and be further along in rebuilding their foundation.
A big reason 2024 was a dud was because both NA and PG fell off a cliff.
Which, given their ages, was always a strong possibility and why they should have been traded in 2023.
"It is better to trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late." - Branch Rickey
Easy to say that now.
Also, I know Goldie is no longer here. Did he retire?
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 09:42 am
by mattmitchl44
ecleme22 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 09:40 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:56 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:38 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:29 am
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:04 am
Once again just bad logic and analysis! So which were they? Old washed up expensive players or guys of good value? You can't really have it both ways! The other clubs that .might have been interested thought they were of good value and could help them win big. Don't you want to win big too?
Without a much more solid foundation of cost controlled young players, the Cardinals were in no position to "win big" with, or without, Arenado and Goldschmidt. 2024 proved to be another exercise in mediocrity even with them.
The Cardinals could have interested teams who WERE in a position to win big in Arenado and Goldschmidt back in 2023, gotten quality prospects in return, and be further along in rebuilding their foundation.
A big reason 2024 was a dud was because both NA and PG fell off a cliff.
Which, given their ages, was always a strong possibility and why they should have been traded in 2023.
"It is better to trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late." - Branch Rickey
Easy to say that now.
Also, I know Goldie is no longer here. Did he retire?
Said it a lot back in July 2023. Goldschmidt had a couple of good months to start the year. He's now cratered in June. We'll see how he holds up of the year.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 09:42 am
by ecleme22
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 09:42 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 09:40 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:56 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:38 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:29 am
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:04 am
Once again just bad logic and analysis! So which were they? Old washed up expensive players or guys of good value? You can't really have it both ways! The other clubs that .might have been interested thought they were of good value and could help them win big. Don't you want to win big too?
Without a much more solid foundation of cost controlled young players, the Cardinals were in no position to "win big" with, or without, Arenado and Goldschmidt. 2024 proved to be another exercise in mediocrity even with them.
The Cardinals could have interested teams who WERE in a position to win big in Arenado and Goldschmidt back in 2023, gotten quality prospects in return, and be further along in rebuilding their foundation.
A big reason 2024 was a dud was because both NA and PG fell off a cliff.
Which, given their ages, was always a strong possibility and why they should have been traded in 2023.
"It is better to trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late." - Branch Rickey
Easy to say that now.
Also, I know Goldie is no longer here. Did he retire?
Said it a lot back in July 2023.
What's Goldie up to now?
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 09:45 am
by mattmitchl44
ecleme22 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 09:42 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 09:42 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 09:40 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:56 am
ecleme22 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:38 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:29 am
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑17 Jun 2025 08:04 am
Once again just bad logic and analysis! So which were they? Old washed up expensive players or guys of good value? You can't really have it both ways! The other clubs that .might have been interested thought they were of good value and could help them win big. Don't you want to win big too?
Without a much more solid foundation of cost controlled young players, the Cardinals were in no position to "win big" with, or without, Arenado and Goldschmidt. 2024 proved to be another exercise in mediocrity even with them.
The Cardinals could have interested teams who WERE in a position to win big in Arenado and Goldschmidt back in 2023, gotten quality prospects in return, and be further along in rebuilding their foundation.
A big reason 2024 was a dud was because both NA and PG fell off a cliff.
Which, given their ages, was always a strong possibility and why they should have been traded in 2023.
"It is better to trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late." - Branch Rickey
Easy to say that now.
Also, I know Goldie is no longer here. Did he retire?
Said it a lot back in July 2023.
What's Goldie up to now?
Fading a lot (wRC+ 50) in June.
But the Cardinals didn't have him signed for this year anyway, so it's moot when discussing whether they should have traded him in 2023.
Re: Nolan Arenado Reality
Posted: 17 Jun 2025 09:46 am
by Futuregm2
Ike Hammett wrote: ↑16 Jun 2025 20:28 pm
The reality of Nolan Arenado as a Cardinal is this fanbase is nuts. Arenado has been a good Cardinal. According to baseball reference he has a WAR of 17.8 with the club in 4+ seasons. If you take the standard of $7 to $10 million for 1 WAR as a free agent, along with including the Rockies picking up some of that tab and his pay going down the next 2 seasons he is okay being an average to slightly above league average hitter 100- 110 ops+ with an above average glove. Hopefully he can squeeze out another 6-7 WAR in his last 2+ years.
He is a good deal when you take into account he really made the team the true contender everyone wanted a few years back when he was putting up MVP caliber numbers. Sad how so many loons took that for granted and still whine about those teams "not trying" and the club being cheap. Nado is great, you all suck and spoiled.
He had one MVP caliber season. In 5 seasons with the Cardinals he has won 2 Gold gloves and had MVP votes in 1 season. For what we gave up in the trade, he was worth it. But we probably could have spent the money differently and been better off for it honestly. Now we still have 2 more years left on the contract and he’s already been in decline for 2 years. So he’ll spend more than half his time in St. Louis being at best an average bat with a good glove.
I would seriously consider platooning Arenado and Gorman the rest of this season. Arenado has an .800 OPS vs LHP and Gorman has a .760 OPS vs RHP.