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PadsFS07 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 12:01 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 11:01 am B) The Cardinals aren’t the only reason that Arenado is still here. He has to agree to a trade and there has to be someone actually interested in him that he’d agree to a trade to go to. If it were up to the Cardinals, he would have been gone in the offseason.

Along those lines too, Arenado is on pace for 3.5 WAR even with his slightly below-average hitting. We don't have any sunk contracts at this point with Mikolas and Matz turning things around, so we might as well keep him and worry about other positions.

No, he really isn't on pace for 3.5 WAR

While I've personally given up on Gorman, I don't think the Cardinals need to yet. I agree that this is still a runway season, and he really hasn't been given the runway to 500-600 ABs originally contemplated.

That said, I think the Cards need to trade, trade, trade from now to the deadline:
Arenado, Fedde and Mikolas if they can, and probably Helsley, which pains me but needed, assuming that Bloom is calling shots on prospects in return, not Mo.

The other guy to strongly consider trading, I hate to say it because I like him a lot, is Nootbaar, but it may be too late to get premium return for him. Donovan or even Burleson could play in left, Burly not as well but serviceably. A big question for me is where they play Wetherholt once he comes up. I'll assume 3B though I believe they continue to play him at SS in the minors.

What's left for this year and the near future, without taking into account return from those trades?
C - Pages, Pozo this year, Bernal, Crooks and more in the wings (Rodriguez down the line) -- lots of talent in the system
1B - Contreras and Burleson
2B - Donovan, Gorman this year and we'll see beyond, Saggesse
SS - Winn, Barrero
3B - Wetherholt, Saggesse
OF - Scott II, Walker, Donovan if moved from 2B, Burleson, Chase Davis
SP - Gray, Liberatore, Pallante, McGreevy, Mathews, Hence, Roby, many more
RP - too hard to predict at this point

The point is that there is plenty of good young talent to finish off the season decently, and there's got to be some good talent coming back from those trades. I'm hoping to see significant activity at the deadline.

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 13:18 pm

PadsFS07 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 12:01 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 11:01 am B) The Cardinals aren’t the only reason that Arenado is still here. He has to agree to a trade and there has to be someone actually interested in him that he’d agree to a trade to go to. If it were up to the Cardinals, he would have been gone in the offseason.

Along those lines too, Arenado is on pace for 3.5 WAR even with his slightly below-average hitting. We don't have any sunk contracts at this point with Mikolas and Matz turning things around, so we might as well keep him and worry about other positions.

No, he really isn't on pace for 3.5 WAR

1.2 WAR - 35% of games played - 3.47 WAR

PadsFS07 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 14:12 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 13:18 pm

PadsFS07 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 12:01 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 11:01 am B) The Cardinals aren’t the only reason that Arenado is still here. He has to agree to a trade and there has to be someone actually interested in him that he’d agree to a trade to go to. If it were up to the Cardinals, he would have been gone in the offseason.

Along those lines too, Arenado is on pace for 3.5 WAR even with his slightly below-average hitting. We don't have any sunk contracts at this point with Mikolas and Matz turning things around, so we might as well keep him and worry about other positions.

No, he really isn't on pace for 3.5 WAR

1.2 WAR - 35% of games played - 3.47 WAR

No...WAR isn't like that

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 12:19 pm

JohnnyMO wrote: ↑29 May 2025 12:12 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 11:01 am

JohnnyMO wrote: ↑29 May 2025 10:56 am

Eyelids64 wrote: ↑28 May 2025 10:49 am Nado is critical at 3B for playoff run. Gorman is a bust. Walker can play. Burly can play. Noot is iffy. Catcher is severely suspect. Starters are plenty good enough and so is middle relief. Closure is scary. Poor bench. Donovan is becoming the key to it all. Contreras, Herrera, Scott and Winn will determine how far this goes.

This is my point. I’m afraid this is becoming the thinking in the front office and it’s fools gold. This pitching staff cannot make a deep playoff run. The team needs to stick to the plan and trade the vets. Nado’s defense has been great and he’s had a few clutch hits, but he is not a plus for this team moving forward. Same goes for Mikolas and Fedde.

Let Gorman and Saggesse play third. Get Mcgreevy and Graceffo in the rotation. The team will have just as good a chance making a playoff run in 2025 and will be infinitely more prepared for the offseason and 2026.

A) If the SPs keep pitching like they have, I don’t see why they can’t make a deep playoff run. Liberatore has already beaten Skenes and Wheeler. Gray is a legit top of the rotation starter that I wouldn’t have any trouble putting up against other good competitive starters. Beyond that, you never know what a guy like Fedde or Pallante could do if they got hot. Both had sub 4 ERA’s last year and Fedde is currently sub 4 again. Pallante isn’t far off. I do think they should at some point replace Mikolas with McGreevy though.

B) The Cardinals aren’t the only reason that Arenado is still here. He has to agree to a trade and there has to be someone actually interested in him that he’d agree to a trade to go to. If it were up to the Cardinals, he would have been gone in the offseason.

This pitching staff isn’t going to keep pitching like they have. Mikolas, Fedde, and Pallante are all due for severe regression. I do believe Libby and Gray are a solid top two, but the guys beyond that need to be moved.

Why a huge regression?

Pallante
2024: 3.78 ERA 1.30 WHIP 8.2 H/9 0.6 HR/9 3.6 BB/9 7.0 K/9 1.96 K/BB
2025: 4.23 ERA 1.36 WHIP 8.9 H/9 1.3 HR/9 3.4 BB/9 6.1 K/9 1.83 K/BB

Fedde
2024 (STL): 3.70 ERA 1.20 WHIP 7.9 H/9 1.0 HR/9 2.9 BB/9 7.4 K/9 2.56 K/BB
2025: 3.90 ERA 1.29 WHIP 7.9 H/9 0.9 HR/9 3.8 BB/9 5.6 K/9 1.50 K/BB

Fedde, I get because of the walks and K’s, although he’s been much better in the month of May than he was in April. He has 22 K’s-10 BB’s in 29.2 IP this month, which is much closer to 2024 than his overall line would show and if he keeps doing that, then I don’t see why he should be due for a huge regression.

Fedde’s xera and fip are a run higher than his actual stats. Mostly due to an unsustainable babip of around .265. He is not going to be able to be successful with a k/9 under 8 and a swinging strike percentage that is bottom third of the game. Too many base runners will eventually bite him, especially in the playoffs against good teams.

Basically the same story for Pallante but even worse with a k/9 barely above 6.

I’m not saying strikeouts are the end all be all. Pitching to contact can work with a good defense, but not when you’re also walking too many batters, not getting swinging strikes, and living by getting out of self created jams.

JohnnyMO wrote: ↑29 May 2025 14:39 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 12:19 pm

JohnnyMO wrote: ↑29 May 2025 12:12 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 11:01 am

JohnnyMO wrote: ↑29 May 2025 10:56 am

Eyelids64 wrote: ↑28 May 2025 10:49 am Nado is critical at 3B for playoff run. Gorman is a bust. Walker can play. Burly can play. Noot is iffy. Catcher is severely suspect. Starters are plenty good enough and so is middle relief. Closure is scary. Poor bench. Donovan is becoming the key to it all. Contreras, Herrera, Scott and Winn will determine how far this goes.

This is my point. I’m afraid this is becoming the thinking in the front office and it’s fools gold. This pitching staff cannot make a deep playoff run. The team needs to stick to the plan and trade the vets. Nado’s defense has been great and he’s had a few clutch hits, but he is not a plus for this team moving forward. Same goes for Mikolas and Fedde.

Let Gorman and Saggesse play third. Get Mcgreevy and Graceffo in the rotation. The team will have just as good a chance making a playoff run in 2025 and will be infinitely more prepared for the offseason and 2026.

A) If the SPs keep pitching like they have, I don’t see why they can’t make a deep playoff run. Liberatore has already beaten Skenes and Wheeler. Gray is a legit top of the rotation starter that I wouldn’t have any trouble putting up against other good competitive starters. Beyond that, you never know what a guy like Fedde or Pallante could do if they got hot. Both had sub 4 ERA’s last year and Fedde is currently sub 4 again. Pallante isn’t far off. I do think they should at some point replace Mikolas with McGreevy though.

B) The Cardinals aren’t the only reason that Arenado is still here. He has to agree to a trade and there has to be someone actually interested in him that he’d agree to a trade to go to. If it were up to the Cardinals, he would have been gone in the offseason.

This pitching staff isn’t going to keep pitching like they have. Mikolas, Fedde, and Pallante are all due for severe regression. I do believe Libby and Gray are a solid top two, but the guys beyond that need to be moved.

Why a huge regression?

Pallante
2024: 3.78 ERA 1.30 WHIP 8.2 H/9 0.6 HR/9 3.6 BB/9 7.0 K/9 1.96 K/BB
2025: 4.23 ERA 1.36 WHIP 8.9 H/9 1.3 HR/9 3.4 BB/9 6.1 K/9 1.83 K/BB

Fedde
2024 (STL): 3.70 ERA 1.20 WHIP 7.9 H/9 1.0 HR/9 2.9 BB/9 7.4 K/9 2.56 K/BB
2025: 3.90 ERA 1.29 WHIP 7.9 H/9 0.9 HR/9 3.8 BB/9 5.6 K/9 1.50 K/BB

Fedde, I get because of the walks and K’s, although he’s been much better in the month of May than he was in April. He has 22 K’s-10 BB’s in 29.2 IP this month, which is much closer to 2024 than his overall line would show and if he keeps doing that, then I don’t see why he should be due for a huge regression.

Fedde’s xera and fip are a run higher than his actual stats. Mostly due to an unsustainable babip of around .265. He is not going to be able to be successful with a k/9 under 8 and a swinging strike percentage that is bottom third of the game. Too many base runners will eventually bite him, especially in the playoffs against good teams.

Basically the same story for Pallante but even worse with a k/9 barely above 6.

I’m not saying strikeouts are the end all be all. Pitching to contact can work with a good defense, but not when you’re also walking too many batters, not getting swinging strikes, and living by getting out of self created jams.

Fedde gave up a lot of walks in April, he’s been much better in May. My thought is maybe his worst month is behind him and he’s getting back to where he was last year. Same with Pallante who has a 21 K-7 BB ratio over his last 4 starts. If their peripherals get better, the other numbers will improve, too.

JohnnyMO wrote: ↑28 May 2025 10:29 am What this season was supposed to be about. It’s starting to pay off for Walker. Gorman deserves the same.

I’m glad the team is winning and they more legit all the time, but that doesn’t mean the plan to give young guys runway and trade the vets by the deadline should change.

Gorman has over 1,000 big league at bats. I never understood the term "runway" with him. He's older, too, at 25, so you're looking at less years of control even aside from ceiling and predicting whether he can reach it. (Luken Baker is/was 28, btw.)

Do you sit Brendan Donovan to get Gorman to Walker-levels of runway AB?

None of this would have happened if they had moved Arenado.

Its great that the team is playing so well that people really have to reach for complaints. If giving Nolan Gorman less at bats is the teams biggest issue, I will accept it as ling as they are playing this well. I really dont think he is a key to the future some thought he would be.

JohnnyMO wrote: ↑29 May 2025 12:12 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 11:01 am

JohnnyMO wrote: ↑29 May 2025 10:56 am

Eyelids64 wrote: ↑28 May 2025 10:49 am Nado is critical at 3B for playoff run. Gorman is a bust. Walker can play. Burly can play. Noot is iffy. Catcher is severely suspect. Starters are plenty good enough and so is middle relief. Closure is scary. Poor bench. Donovan is becoming the key to it all. Contreras, Herrera, Scott and Winn will determine how far this goes.

This is my point. I’m afraid this is becoming the thinking in the front office and it’s fools gold. This pitching staff cannot make a deep playoff run. The team needs to stick to the plan and trade the vets. Nado’s defense has been great and he’s had a few clutch hits, but he is not a plus for this team moving forward. Same goes for Mikolas and Fedde.

Let Gorman and Saggesse play third. Get Mcgreevy and Graceffo in the rotation. The team will have just as good a chance making a playoff run in 2025 and will be infinitely more prepared for the offseason and 2026.

A) If the SPs keep pitching like they have, I don’t see why they can’t make a deep playoff run. Liberatore has already beaten Skenes and Wheeler. Gray is a legit top of the rotation starter that I wouldn’t have any trouble putting up against other good competitive starters. Beyond that, you never know what a guy like Fedde or Pallante could do if they got hot. Both had sub 4 ERA’s last year and Fedde is currently sub 4 again. Pallante isn’t far off. I do think they should at some point replace Mikolas with McGreevy though.

B) The Cardinals aren’t the only reason that Arenado is still here. He has to agree to a trade and there has to be someone actually interested in him that he’d agree to a trade to go to. If it were up to the Cardinals, he would have been gone in the offseason.

This pitching staff isn’t going to keep pitching like they have. Mikolas, Fedde, and Pallante are all due for severe regression. I do believe Libby and Gray are a solid top two, but the guys beyond that need to be moved.

You need to show your work. It all sounds like opinion to me. If only one of the three aforementioned hangs in there that makes a playoff rotation. Moreover, if McGreevy steps into the breech, we've got all we need to make a good showing. When we lost to the Phillies in '22, we were in both games and our problem was NOT pitching. We couldn't score runs. That just doesn't appear to be our problem this year.

I'm not sure you have been constructive about this team enough to be taken seriously regarding postseason chances. Not saying you're trolling, only that you haven't been on the mark much. Took you quite a while to decide that Masyn Winn could carry his weight. That's OK, mind you, but now you want to put the pitching into the grinder for no apparent reason.

I don't want us to give up on the season. I think we are a better team than '22 and have a chance to go deep into the postseason. I'd like us to win the Central and have the advantage of some home field advantage, but, that's not essential. The Phillies were wild card in '22 and made it to the WS. We allowed fewer runs per game pitching than the Phillies did and our ERA plus in '22 was 2 points higher than Philly.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leag ... hing.shtml

hugeCardfan wrote: ↑29 May 2025 18:34 pm

JohnnyMO wrote: ↑29 May 2025 12:12 pm

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 11:01 am

JohnnyMO wrote: ↑29 May 2025 10:56 am

Eyelids64 wrote: ↑28 May 2025 10:49 am Nado is critical at 3B for playoff run. Gorman is a bust. Walker can play. Burly can play. Noot is iffy. Catcher is severely suspect. Starters are plenty good enough and so is middle relief. Closure is scary. Poor bench. Donovan is becoming the key to it all. Contreras, Herrera, Scott and Winn will determine how far this goes.

This is my point. I’m afraid this is becoming the thinking in the front office and it’s fools gold. This pitching staff cannot make a deep playoff run. The team needs to stick to the plan and trade the vets. Nado’s defense has been great and he’s had a few clutch hits, but he is not a plus for this team moving forward. Same goes for Mikolas and Fedde.

Let Gorman and Saggesse play third. Get Mcgreevy and Graceffo in the rotation. The team will have just as good a chance making a playoff run in 2025 and will be infinitely more prepared for the offseason and 2026.

A) If the SPs keep pitching like they have, I don’t see why they can’t make a deep playoff run. Liberatore has already beaten Skenes and Wheeler. Gray is a legit top of the rotation starter that I wouldn’t have any trouble putting up against other good competitive starters. Beyond that, you never know what a guy like Fedde or Pallante could do if they got hot. Both had sub 4 ERA’s last year and Fedde is currently sub 4 again. Pallante isn’t far off. I do think they should at some point replace Mikolas with McGreevy though.

B) The Cardinals aren’t the only reason that Arenado is still here. He has to agree to a trade and there has to be someone actually interested in him that he’d agree to a trade to go to. If it were up to the Cardinals, he would have been gone in the offseason.

This pitching staff isn’t going to keep pitching like they have. Mikolas, Fedde, and Pallante are all due for severe regression. I do believe Libby and Gray are a solid top two, but the guys beyond that need to be moved.

You need to show your work. It all sounds like opinion to me. If only one of the three aforementioned hangs in there that makes a playoff rotation. Moreover, if McGreevy steps into the breech, we've got all we need to make a good showing. When we lost to the Phillies in '22, we were in both games and our problem was NOT pitching. We couldn't score runs. That just doesn't appear to be our problem this year.

I'm not sure you have been constructive about this team enough to be taken seriously regarding postseason chances. Not saying you're trolling, only that you haven't been on the mark much. Took you quite a while to decide that Masyn Winn could carry his weight. That's OK, mind you, but now you want to put the pitching into the grinder for no apparent reason.

I don't want us to give up on the season. I think we are a better team than '22 and have a chance to go deep into the postseason. I'd like us to win the Central and have the advantage of some home field advantage, but, that's not essential. The Phillies were wild card in '22 and made it to the WS. We allowed fewer runs per game pitching than the Phillies did and our ERA plus in '22 was 2 points higher than Philly.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leag ... hing.shtml

I was totally wrong about Wynn. Knew the defense was there, but never thought he’d make it as a big league hitter. Happy to say I misjudged that one.

Definitely not trolling and i don’t want to give up on the season either. I’d consider holding onto Matz and/or Helsley if the team still looks like a contender at the deadline. But when it comes to, Mikolas, Fedde, and maybe even Arenado - I think the team may be as good without them. And, if not, the front office needs to find that out before going into 2026.

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 14:30 pm No...WAR isn't like that

How, exactly, is WAR not like that? It’s 100% can be extrapolated.

PadsFS07 wrote: ↑30 May 2025 11:44 am

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 14:30 pm No...WAR isn't like that

How, exactly, is WAR not like that? It’s 100% can be extrapolated.

So JW -0.5 means he will be a -1.5 at years end

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑30 May 2025 16:51 pm

PadsFS07 wrote: ↑30 May 2025 11:44 am

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 14:30 pm No...WAR isn't like that

How, exactly, is WAR not like that? It’s 100% can be extrapolated.

So JW -0.5 means he will be a -1.5 at years end

At his current pace, absolutely. He has a .583 OPS and negative defense at an easy position.