1/3 of season done

[Baseball Savant]

The next 54 wont be so kind in my opinion. Pitching will inevitably cave a little, and most hitters are showing signs of slowing.

26-28 is my guess and trading deadline is coming end of July,

Away 27: Baltimore, Texas, Milwaukee, White Sox, Indians, Pirates, Cubs, Arizona, Colorado

Home 29 : KC, Dodgers, Toronto, Reds, Cubs, Washington, Atlanta, SD, Miami

[sikeston bulldog2]

The next 54 wont be so kind in my opinion. Pitching will inevitably cave a little, and most hitters are showing signs of slowing.

26-28 is my guess and trading deadline is coming end of July,

Away 27: Baltimore, Texas, Milwaukee, White Sox, Indians, Pirates, Cubs, Arizona, Colorado

Home 29 : KC, Dodgers, Toronto, Reds, Cubs, Washington, Atlanta, SD, Miami

I don’t know. As for an away schedule, that’s pretty weak. One leader- Cubs, and one contender- Indians.

As for home, much more challenging with only a weak Miami Nats and Reds teams.

I’d think .500 is attainable.

[Futuregm2]

The next 54 wont be so kind in my opinion. Pitching will inevitably cave a little, and most hitters are showing signs of slowing.

26-28 is my guess and trading deadline is coming end of July,

Away 27: Baltimore, Texas, Milwaukee, White Sox, Indians, Pirates, Cubs, Arizona, Colorado

Home 29 : KC, Dodgers, Toronto, Reds, Cubs, Washington, Atlanta, SD, Miami

A) That’s 56, not 54.

B) I’ll go

2-0 Baltimore
2-1 Texas
1-2 Milwaukee
3-0 White Sox
2-1 Pirates
1-2 Cubs
1-2 Dbacks
3-0 Colorado

15-12 road

2-1 KC
1-2 LAD
1-2 Toronto
2-1 Cincy
2-2 Cubs
2-1 Was
3-0 Atlanta (surprise sweep)
2-2 SD
2-1 Miami

17-12 home

32-24 over their next 56

Gets us to 62-48 by the end of July.

[sikeston bulldog2]

The next 54 wont be so kind in my opinion. Pitching will inevitably cave a little, and most hitters are showing signs of slowing.

26-28 is my guess and trading deadline is coming end of July,

Away 27: Baltimore, Texas, Milwaukee, White Sox, Indians, Pirates, Cubs, Arizona, Colorado

Home 29 : KC, Dodgers, Toronto, Reds, Cubs, Washington, Atlanta, SD, Miami

A) That’s 56, not 54.

B) I’ll go

2-0 Baltimore
2-1 Texas
1-2 Milwaukee
3-0 White Sox
2-1 Pirates
1-2 Cubs
1-2 Dbacks
3-0 Colorado

15-12 road

2-1 KC
1-2 LAD
1-2 Toronto
2-1 Cincy
2-2 Cubs
2-1 Was
3-0 Atlanta (surprise sweep)
2-2 SD
2-1 Miami

17-12 home

32-24 over their next 56

Gets us to 62-48 by the end of July.

I’ll go 11-11 on the road, 16-13 at home me.

[Ike Hammett]

So that's 54 games, 1/3 of the season.

At the 1/4 mark, I noted we were 2 games above .500 which put us on track for 85 or 86 wins.

Now, at the 1/3 mark we are 6 games above 0.500 which would be on pace for 90 wins

So the question is, does that accurately reflect the talent level of the team?

Towards the end of April I thought our team talent-wise was better than it's record. They weren't supposed to be that bad. But are they this good?

As long as the pitching continues, we have a shot. But that means Fedde, Pallante and Mikolas all have to keep it up. And McGreevy will have to come through when he inevitably gets the call.

87-88 wins seems very realistic. To win 92-94, a lot would need to go right. Let's see what happens as we hit a softer stretch in the schedule. Can they turn a hot streak into a hot summer? I'm encouraged that they were able to come back with the AZ series sweep after the tough losses to Detroit. It shows that they were able to quickly refind their winning mojo instead of allowing it to be an isolated winning streak followed by a return to mediocrity. This team seems to have found an identity in itself that the last two seasons did not have.

These Cardinals are as good as they BELIEVE they are.

The lion knows he can take the gazelle, the gazelle knows the lion will take it. Like Sun Tzu stated the fight is determined before it is even fought. I had an interesting comment response to a post I made a few days ago. Someone told me, what you believe and reality are 2 totally different things. They are not.

The greatest Jedi of all time Yoda told Luke Skywalker once, whether you believe you can or cannot, you are right. The forces of the universe are funny like that.

I appreciate the remarks, Ike

I appreciate the thread as it is important to the success of this club. The answer to your questions is YES.

This team is that good, and they are also that bad. They can win 95+ they can also win 75 or less. The question(s) I think you are asking are more like, how do they become more of the 95 win team vs. 70 win team? How do they maintain the higher level of play and sustain it?

The formula is extremely complicated and the gazillion variables to calculate it are to great to quantify. To even try to do that math will probably create paralysis by analysis. Stick to the most basic of fundamentals of what it takes to win baseball games. Be in great shape, practice hard, stay focused on every play, inning, pitch and try to win the thing right in front of you, don't let the gazelle think he even has a chance to win, and of course probably the most important have fun.

[JDW]

So that's 54 games, 1/3 of the season.

At the 1/4 mark, I noted we were 2 games above .500 which put us on track for 85 or 86 wins.

Now, at the 1/3 mark we are 6 games above 0.500 which would be on pace for 90 wins

So the question is, does that accurately reflect the talent level of the team?

Towards the end of April I thought our team talent-wise was better than it's record. They weren't supposed to be that bad. But are they this good?

As long as the pitching continues, we have a shot. But that means Fedde, Pallante and Mikolas all have to keep it up. And McGreevy will have to come through when he inevitably gets the call.

87-88 wins seems very realistic. To win 92-94, a lot would need to go right. Let's see what happens as we hit a softer stretch in the schedule. Can they turn a hot streak into a hot summer? I'm encouraged that they were able to come back with the AZ series sweep after the tough losses to Detroit. It shows that they were able to quickly refind their winning mojo instead of allowing it to be an isolated winning streak followed by a return to mediocrity. This team seems to have found an identity in itself that the last two seasons did not have.

These Cardinals are as good as they BELIEVE they are.

The lion knows he can take the gazelle, the gazelle knows the lion will take it. Like Sun Tzu stated the fight is determined before it is even fought. I had an interesting comment response to a post I made a few days ago. Someone told me, what you believe and reality are 2 totally different things. They are not.

The greatest Jedi of all time Yoda told Luke Skywalker once, whether you believe you can or cannot, you are right. The forces of the universe are funny like that.

Yeah, that was me in your OP about being upset with Arenado getting moved down to 6th in the order, and that us "haters" caused it to happen.
Btw, I'll stick with my thought that what you believe and reality aren't in perfect alignment, which would be true for almost everybody.
Arrogance in your beliefs often gets you farther away from reality.

"Arrogance in your beliefs often gets you farther away from reality."

Lol, is that your belief or is that reality? Because according to your own logic and reasoning you proved yourself wrong. Or is that just my belief in reality?

It's more like an observation/opinion, subject to change if evidence to the contrary presented itself, w/o the attached arrogance.

[Ike Hammett]

So that's 54 games, 1/3 of the season.

At the 1/4 mark, I noted we were 2 games above .500 which put us on track for 85 or 86 wins.

Now, at the 1/3 mark we are 6 games above 0.500 which would be on pace for 90 wins

So the question is, does that accurately reflect the talent level of the team?

Towards the end of April I thought our team talent-wise was better than it's record. They weren't supposed to be that bad. But are they this good?

As long as the pitching continues, we have a shot. But that means Fedde, Pallante and Mikolas all have to keep it up. And McGreevy will have to come through when he inevitably gets the call.

87-88 wins seems very realistic. To win 92-94, a lot would need to go right. Let's see what happens as we hit a softer stretch in the schedule. Can they turn a hot streak into a hot summer? I'm encouraged that they were able to come back with the AZ series sweep after the tough losses to Detroit. It shows that they were able to quickly refind their winning mojo instead of allowing it to be an isolated winning streak followed by a return to mediocrity. This team seems to have found an identity in itself that the last two seasons did not have.

These Cardinals are as good as they BELIEVE they are.

The lion knows he can take the gazelle, the gazelle knows the lion will take it. Like Sun Tzu stated the fight is determined before it is even fought. I had an interesting comment response to a post I made a few days ago. Someone told me, what you believe and reality are 2 totally different things. They are not.

The greatest Jedi of all time Yoda told Luke Skywalker once, whether you believe you can or cannot, you are right. The forces of the universe are funny like that.

Yeah, that was me in your OP about being upset with Arenado getting moved down to 6th in the order, and that us "haters" caused it to happen.
Btw, I'll stick with my thought that what you believe and reality aren't in perfect alignment, which would be true for almost everybody.
Arrogance in your beliefs often gets you farther away from reality.

"Arrogance in your beliefs often gets you farther away from reality."

Lol, is that your belief or is that reality? Because according to your own logic and reasoning you proved yourself wrong. Or is that just my belief in reality?

It's more like an observation/opinion, subject to change if evidence to the contrary presented itself, w/o the attached arrogance.

You are all over the place with this. So, are your observations and opinions reality? Are your opinions facts? Are the facts in reality just opinions and observations of your beliefs? And how exactly do you quantify that if there is evidence to the contrary that presents itself?

I believe I'm not being arrogant, is that just your opinion or reality?

[rockondlouie]

Cardinals

54 GP

W/L
30-24

108 games remaining

From now till seasons end:

.500 ball = 84 - 78

Best Case and could/would = Playoff spot:

.550 ball = 89 - 73

.575 ball = 92 - 70

.600 ball = 95 - 67


Everything falls apart and they selloff Helsley, Fedde, Matz etal:

.450 ball = 79 - 83

[Talkin' Baseball]

I predict that the first 1/3 of the season probably represents the high-water mark for the Cardinals, as far as games above .500. There were a lot of things that not only exceeded expectations- but smashed them. There were very few disappointing performances. There have been no major injuries. I expect the second 1/3 of the season to be the next best. It's hard to imagine things continuing to go this smoothly on the injury front. Look for regression- especially among the starting pitchers. The second 1/3 of the season will take us right up to the deadline. I expect us to be out of the wildcard, and trailing the Braves to get in. I think we will be sellers. Immediately after the deadline the Cardinals hit the road to open the final 1/3 against the San Diego and the Dodgers, then come home to play the Cubs, Rockies, then the Yankees. I expect this to be the poorest 1/3 of the season for the wins and losses. That's what I think will happen. I am open to be pleasantly surprised.

[imadangman]

I predict that the first 1/3 of the season probably represents the high-water mark for the Cardinals, as far as games above .500. There were a lot of things that not only exceeded expectations- but smashed them. There were very few disappointing performances. There have been no major injuries. I expect the second 1/3 of the season to be the next best. It's hard to imagine things continuing to go this smoothly on the injury front. Look for regression- especially among the starting pitchers. The second 1/3 of the season will take us right up to the deadline. I expect us to be out of the wildcard, and trailing the Braves to get in. I think we will be sellers. Immediately after the deadline the Cardinals hit the road to open the final 1/3 against the San Diego and the Dodgers, then come home to play the Cubs, Rockies, then the Yankees. I expect this to be the poorest 1/3 of the season for the wins and losses. That's what I think will happen. I am open to be pleasantly surprised.

Let's see where they stand after this second 1/3. The schedule is conducive to where if they play as good as they've shown against some much tougher teams, we could be looking at 15-20 games above 0.500 by the 2/3 mark. Of course things would have to continue to go right.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I predict that the first 1/3 of the season probably represents the high-water mark for the Cardinals, as far as games above .500. There were a lot of things that not only exceeded expectations- but smashed them. There were very few disappointing performances. There have been no major injuries. I expect the second 1/3 of the season to be the next best. It's hard to imagine things continuing to go this smoothly on the injury front. Look for regression- especially among the starting pitchers. The second 1/3 of the season will take us right up to the deadline. I expect us to be out of the wildcard, and trailing the Braves to get in. I think we will be sellers. Immediately after the deadline the Cardinals hit the road to open the final 1/3 against the San Diego and the Dodgers, then come home to play the Cubs, Rockies, then the Yankees. I expect this to be the poorest 1/3 of the season for the wins and losses. That's what I think will happen. I am open to be pleasantly surprised.

Let's see where they stand after this second 1/3. The schedule is conducive to where if they play as good as they've shown against some much tougher teams, we could be looking at 15-20 games above 0.500 by the 2/3 mark. Of course things would have to continue to go right.

Agree. We argue about whether they should buy, or sell, but people in the profession make a plan and lay groundwork for both scenarios.

[imadangman]

I predict that the first 1/3 of the season probably represents the high-water mark for the Cardinals, as far as games above .500. There were a lot of things that not only exceeded expectations- but smashed them. There were very few disappointing performances. There have been no major injuries. I expect the second 1/3 of the season to be the next best. It's hard to imagine things continuing to go this smoothly on the injury front. Look for regression- especially among the starting pitchers. The second 1/3 of the season will take us right up to the deadline. I expect us to be out of the wildcard, and trailing the Braves to get in. I think we will be sellers. Immediately after the deadline the Cardinals hit the road to open the final 1/3 against the San Diego and the Dodgers, then come home to play the Cubs, Rockies, then the Yankees. I expect this to be the poorest 1/3 of the season for the wins and losses. That's what I think will happen. I am open to be pleasantly surprised.

Let's see where they stand after this second 1/3. The schedule is conducive to where if they play as good as they've shown against some much tougher teams, we could be looking at 15-20 games above 0.500 by the 2/3 mark. Of course things would have to continue to go right.

Agree. We argue about whether they should buy, or sell, but people in the profession make a plan and lay groundwork for both scenarios.

That's very interesting

[Futuregm2]

I predict that the first 1/3 of the season probably represents the high-water mark for the Cardinals, as far as games above .500. There were a lot of things that not only exceeded expectations- but smashed them. There were very few disappointing performances. There have been no major injuries. I expect the second 1/3 of the season to be the next best. It's hard to imagine things continuing to go this smoothly on the injury front. Look for regression- especially among the starting pitchers. The second 1/3 of the season will take us right up to the deadline. I expect us to be out of the wildcard, and trailing the Braves to get in. I think we will be sellers. Immediately after the deadline the Cardinals hit the road to open the final 1/3 against the San Diego and the Dodgers, then come home to play the Cubs, Rockies, then the Yankees. I expect this to be the poorest 1/3 of the season for the wins and losses. That's what I think will happen. I am open to be pleasantly surprised.

I love this phrase, specifically since the 1/3rd mark just ended yesterday. So at the end of yesterday, how many of these lines exceed, let alone “smash” expectations?

Nootbaar: .239/.344/.390
Winn: .257/.343/.414
Donovan: .328/.390/.463
Contreras: .245/.325/.388
Herrera: .370/.442/.658
Arenado: .234/.306/.378
Walker: .207/.264/.293
Pages: .217/.250/.372
Scott II: .273/.346/.373

Burleson: .283/.331/.413
Gorman: .188/.287/.282
Pozo: .320/.333/.440
Barrero: .176/.222/.412


Rotation:
1. Gray: 5-1 4.06 ERA 1.16 WHIP
2. Fedde: 3-4 3.90 ERA 1.30 WHIP
3. Pallante: 4-3 4.18 ERA 1.34 WHIP
4. Mikolas: 4-2 3.51 ERA 1.17 WHIP
5. Liberatore: 3-3 2.73 ERA 1.01 WHIP

CL: Helsley: 3.50 ERA 1.50 WHIP 10 saves
RHP Leahy: 2.15 ERA 0.82 WHIP
RHP Maton: 2.84 ERA 1.26 WHIP
LHP King: 3.93 ERA 1.64 WHIP
LHP Romero 3.63 ERA 1.50 WHIP
LHP Matz: 1.99 ERA 0.95 WHIP
RHP Graceffo 5.52 ERA 1.09 WHIP
RHP Swanson 2.35 ERA 0.78 WHIP

From my perspective, I would say

“smashing”:
Donovan
Herrera
Libby
Leahy
Matz

Exceeding:
VS2
Mikolas
Pozo (but it’s so few PAs)

In line:
Nootbaar
Winn
Pages
Burleson
Arenado-ish
Maton
Romero-ish
Fedde
Pallante
King
Gray-ish

Disappointing:
Contreras
Helsley

Disaster:
Walker
Gorman

All 3 of the “ish’s” are at best “in line” if not kind of “disappointing”, but they aren’t enough to the disappointing for me to put them there.

Overall, 3 “key” smashings/2 relievers and 2 “key” disasters. A couple “key” exceeding and a couple “key” disappointings. And most of the team is in line with what you expect. Which is why this team doesn’t surprise me at all and I do think they can continue to keep playing the way they are playing. They aren’t playing way above their heads individually or as a team.

[rockondlouie]

I predict that the first 1/3 of the season probably represents the high-water mark for the Cardinals, as far as games above .500. There were a lot of things that not only exceeded expectations- but smashed them. There were very few disappointing performances. There have been no major injuries. I expect the second 1/3 of the season to be the next best. It's hard to imagine things continuing to go this smoothly on the injury front. Look for regression- especially among the starting pitchers. The second 1/3 of the season will take us right up to the deadline. I expect us to be out of the wildcard, and trailing the Braves to get in. I think we will be sellers. Immediately after the deadline the Cardinals hit the road to open the final 1/3 against the San Diego and the Dodgers, then come home to play the Cubs, Rockies, then the Yankees. I expect this to be the poorest 1/3 of the season for the wins and losses. That's what I think will happen. I am open to be pleasantly surprised.

I love this phrase, specifically since the 1/3rd mark just ended yesterday. So at the end of yesterday, how many of these lines exceed, let alone “smash” expectations?

Nootbaar: .239/.344/.390
Winn: .257/.343/.414
Donovan: .328/.390/.463
Contreras: .245/.325/.388
Herrera: .370/.442/.658
Arenado: .234/.306/.378
Walker: .207/.264/.293
Pages: .217/.250/.372
Scott II: .273/.346/.373

Burleson: .283/.331/.413
Gorman: .188/.287/.282
Pozo: .320/.333/.440
Barrero: .176/.222/.412


Rotation:
1. Gray: 5-1 4.06 ERA 1.16 WHIP
2. Fedde: 3-4 3.90 ERA 1.30 WHIP
3. Pallante: 4-3 4.18 ERA 1.34 WHIP
4. Mikolas: 4-2 3.51 ERA 1.17 WHIP
5. Liberatore: 3-3 2.73 ERA 1.01 WHIP

CL: Helsley: 3.50 ERA 1.50 WHIP 10 saves
RHP Leahy: 2.15 ERA 0.82 WHIP
RHP Maton: 2.84 ERA 1.26 WHIP
LHP King: 3.93 ERA 1.64 WHIP
LHP Romero 3.63 ERA 1.50 WHIP
LHP Matz: 1.99 ERA 0.95 WHIP
RHP Graceffo 5.52 ERA 1.09 WHIP
RHP Swanson 2.35 ERA 0.78 WHIP

From my perspective, I would say

“smashing”:
Donovan
Herrera
Libby
Leahy
Matz

Exceeding:
VS2
Mikolas
Pozo (but it’s so few PAs)

In line:
Nootbaar
Winn
Pages
Burleson
Arenado-ish
Maton
Romero-ish
Fedde
Pallante
King
Gray-ish

Disappointing:
Contreras
Helsley

Disaster:
Walker
Gorman

All 3 of the “ish’s” are at best “in line” if not kind of “disappointing”, but they aren’t enough to the disappointing for me to put them there.

Overall, 3 “key” smashings and 2 “key” disasters. A couple “key” exceeding and a couple “key” disappointings. And most of the team is in line with what you expect. Which is why this team doesn’t surprise me at all and I do think they can continue to keep playing the way they are playing. They aren’t playing way above their heads individually or as a team.

Excellent breakdown.

Agreed, this team isn't overachieving at all.

[Talkin' Baseball]

I predict that the first 1/3 of the season probably represents the high-water mark for the Cardinals, as far as games above .500. There were a lot of things that not only exceeded expectations- but smashed them. There were very few disappointing performances. There have been no major injuries. I expect the second 1/3 of the season to be the next best. It's hard to imagine things continuing to go this smoothly on the injury front. Look for regression- especially among the starting pitchers. The second 1/3 of the season will take us right up to the deadline. I expect us to be out of the wildcard, and trailing the Braves to get in. I think we will be sellers. Immediately after the deadline the Cardinals hit the road to open the final 1/3 against the San Diego and the Dodgers, then come home to play the Cubs, Rockies, then the Yankees. I expect this to be the poorest 1/3 of the season for the wins and losses. That's what I think will happen. I am open to be pleasantly surprised.

I love this phrase, specifically since the 1/3rd mark just ended yesterday. So at the end of yesterday, how many of these lines exceed, let alone “smash” expectations?

Nootbaar: .239/.344/.390
Winn: .257/.343/.414
Donovan: .328/.390/.463
Contreras: .245/.325/.388
Herrera: .370/.442/.658
Arenado: .234/.306/.378
Walker: .207/.264/.293
Pages: .217/.250/.372
Scott II: .273/.346/.373

Burleson: .283/.331/.413
Gorman: .188/.287/.282
Pozo: .320/.333/.440
Barrero: .176/.222/.412


Rotation:
1. Gray: 5-1 4.06 ERA 1.16 WHIP
2. Fedde: 3-4 3.90 ERA 1.30 WHIP
3. Pallante: 4-3 4.18 ERA 1.34 WHIP
4. Mikolas: 4-2 3.51 ERA 1.17 WHIP
5. Liberatore: 3-3 2.73 ERA 1.01 WHIP

CL: Helsley: 3.50 ERA 1.50 WHIP 10 saves
RHP Leahy: 2.15 ERA 0.82 WHIP
RHP Maton: 2.84 ERA 1.26 WHIP
LHP King: 3.93 ERA 1.64 WHIP
LHP Romero 3.63 ERA 1.50 WHIP
LHP Matz: 1.99 ERA 0.95 WHIP
RHP Graceffo 5.52 ERA 1.09 WHIP
RHP Swanson 2.35 ERA 0.78 WHIP

From my perspective, I would say

“smashing”:
Donovan
Herrera
Libby
Leahy
Matz

Exceeding:
VS2
Mikolas
Pozo (but it’s so few PAs)

In line:
Nootbaar
Winn
Pages
Burleson
Arenado-ish
Maton
Romero-ish
Fedde
Pallante
King
Gray-ish

Disappointing:
Contreras
Helsley

Disaster:
Walker
Gorman

All 3 of the “ish’s” are at best “in line” if not kind of “disappointing”, but they aren’t enough to the disappointing for me to put them there.

Overall, 3 “key” smashings and 2 “key” disasters. A couple “key” exceeding and a couple “key” disappointings. And most of the team is in line with what you expect. Which is why this team doesn’t surprise me at all and I do think they can continue to keep playing the way they are playing. They aren’t playing way above their heads individually or as a team.

Can't say I disagree with anything you have written. In fact, I think I agree with all of that. I didn't see the SP pitching as deep into games as they have, or the ERA to date. I didn't see the MASSIVE improvement in hitting with RISP. Brant Brown has yielded more improvement than I thought possible in this time frame. While I knew we had some good defensive players- I didn't expect the Cardinals to have the best defense in all of MLB. I didn't think Oli capable of making a lineup (defensively, or offensively) and pretty much sticking to it. I didn't see Oli leaving pitchers in longer when they are doing well than he has in the past. Stuff like that.

[hmoss859]

They have been really clutch too during the 16-4 run which is hard to continue