Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025 14:36 pm
With Doval taking over closer duties in SF, Walker basically becomes useless.
I agree it’s a slight overpay, but it’s (usually) tough to pry away a top closer.
I do wonder how rational the closer market really is.
If you had 2 RPs who gave you the same IP, K, ERA, WHIP, but one closed and got 30 SVs vs. the non-closer getting 5 SVs, how much more is the closer really worth?
It would only depend on how much the extra 25 SVs were worth. If you were going to be first in saves anyway, they're worth nothing. If you were going to be near the top anyway, maybe they worth on 2-3 fantasy points. They would probably be worth the most if you were going to be 10th or 11th - near the bottom of what probably should be a bell curve - where the extra 25 SVs could move you up 5 or 6 points in the category.
So your sort of best case scenario is a closer being worth, maybe, 5-6 fantasy points, and likely a bit less than that. I'm not sure how much that worth overpaying for.
Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025 14:36 pm
With Doval taking over closer duties in SF, Walker basically becomes useless.
I agree it’s a slight overpay, but it’s (usually) tough to pry away a top closer.
I do wonder how rational the closer market really is.
If you had 2 RPs who gave you the same IP, K, ERA, WHIP, but one closed and got 30 SVs vs. the non-closer getting 5 SVs, how much more is the closer really worth?
It would only depend on how much the extra 25 SVs were worth. If you were going to be first in saves anyway, they're worth nothing. If you were going to be near the top anyway, maybe they worth on 2-3 fantasy points. They would probably be worth the most if you were going to be 10th or 11th - near the bottom of what probably should be a bell curve - where the extra 25 SVs could move you up 5 or 6 points in the category.
So your sort of best case scenario is a closer being worth, maybe, 5-6 fantasy points, and likely a bit less than that. I'm not sure how much that worth overpaying for.
Seems like good non-closers can help you in multiple categories. K's, whip, and occasionally wins.
All I have to add is the Red Sox are past due calling up Roman Anthony.
Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025 14:36 pm
With Doval taking over closer duties in SF, Walker basically becomes useless.
I agree it’s a slight overpay, but it’s (usually) tough to pry away a top closer.
I do wonder how rational the closer market really is.
If you had 2 RPs who gave you the same IP, K, ERA, WHIP, but one closed and got 30 SVs vs. the non-closer getting 5 SVs, how much more is the closer really worth?
It would only depend on how much the extra 25 SVs were worth. If you were going to be first in saves anyway, they're worth nothing. If you were going to be near the top anyway, maybe they worth on 2-3 fantasy points. They would probably be worth the most if you were going to be 10th or 11th - near the bottom of what probably should be a bell curve - where the extra 25 SVs could move you up 5 or 6 points in the category.
So your sort of best case scenario is a closer being worth, maybe, 5-6 fantasy points, and likely a bit less than that. I'm not sure how much that worth overpaying for.
Seems like good non-closers can help you in multiple categories. K's, whip, and occasionally wins.
All I have to add is the Red Sox are past due calling up Roman Anthony.
I think if you are going to roster a non-closer, you have to feel really sure that they are not going to hurt you. You have to believe they are going to be solidly above 1 K/IP with a WHIP and ERA that will be better than your team's average. As long as they are doing that, they are at something of a net positive even if they aren't getting you saves. I basically gave up on Ryan Pressly not because he wasn't getting saves, but because I didn't think I could trust him to be a net positive in those other categories over the innings he pitched.
Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025 14:36 pm
With Doval taking over closer duties in SF, Walker basically becomes useless.
I agree it’s a slight overpay, but it’s (usually) tough to pry away a top closer.
I do wonder how rational the closer market really is.
If you had 2 RPs who gave you the same IP, K, ERA, WHIP, but one closed and got 30 SVs vs. the non-closer getting 5 SVs, how much more is the closer really worth?
It would only depend on how much the extra 25 SVs were worth. If you were going to be first in saves anyway, they're worth nothing. If you were going to be near the top anyway, maybe they worth on 2-3 fantasy points. They would probably be worth the most if you were going to be 10th or 11th - near the bottom of what probably should be a bell curve - where the extra 25 SVs could move you up 5 or 6 points in the category.
So your sort of best case scenario is a closer being worth, maybe, 5-6 fantasy points, and likely a bit less than that. I'm not sure how much that worth overpaying for.
Seems like good non-closers can help you in multiple categories. K's, whip, and occasionally wins.
All I have to add is the Red Sox are past due calling up Roman Anthony.
I think if you are going to roster a non-closer, you have to feel really sure that they are not going to hurt you. You have to believe they are going to be solidly above 1 K/IP with a WHIP and ERA that will be better than your team's average. As long as they are doing that, they are at something of a net positive even if they aren't getting you saves. I basically gave up on Ryan Pressly not because he wasn't getting saves, but because I didn't think I could trust him to be a net positive in those other categories over the innings he pitched.
Very interesting. And the Cubs do not seem to be in a rush to get him back in save situation. On my end I finally cut Alexis Diaz then picked him back up 2 days later when the Dodgers picked him up. That was a surprising move, selling very low on the part of Cincy.
Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025 14:36 pm
With Doval taking over closer duties in SF, Walker basically becomes useless.
I agree it’s a slight overpay, but it’s (usually) tough to pry away a top closer.
I do wonder how rational the closer market really is.
If you had 2 RPs who gave you the same IP, K, ERA, WHIP, but one closed and got 30 SVs vs. the non-closer getting 5 SVs, how much more is the closer really worth?
It would only depend on how much the extra 25 SVs were worth. If you were going to be first in saves anyway, they're worth nothing. If you were going to be near the top anyway, maybe they worth on 2-3 fantasy points. They would probably be worth the most if you were going to be 10th or 11th - near the bottom of what probably should be a bell curve - where the extra 25 SVs could move you up 5 or 6 points in the category.
So your sort of best case scenario is a closer being worth, maybe, 5-6 fantasy points, and likely a bit less than that. I'm not sure how much that worth overpaying for.
Agree. There’s also very little difference between an “elite” closer and just a guy with the job… which is why I do not bother with closers in the early rounds.
Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025 14:36 pm
With Doval taking over closer duties in SF, Walker basically becomes useless.
I agree it’s a slight overpay, but it’s (usually) tough to pry away a top closer.
I do wonder how rational the closer market really is.
If you had 2 RPs who gave you the same IP, K, ERA, WHIP, but one closed and got 30 SVs vs. the non-closer getting 5 SVs, how much more is the closer really worth?
It would only depend on how much the extra 25 SVs were worth. If you were going to be first in saves anyway, they're worth nothing. If you were going to be near the top anyway, maybe they worth on 2-3 fantasy points. They would probably be worth the most if you were going to be 10th or 11th - near the bottom of what probably should be a bell curve - where the extra 25 SVs could move you up 5 or 6 points in the category.
So your sort of best case scenario is a closer being worth, maybe, 5-6 fantasy points, and likely a bit less than that. I'm not sure how much that worth overpaying for.
Seems like good non-closers can help you in multiple categories. K's, whip, and occasionally wins.
All I have to add is the Red Sox are past due calling up Roman Anthony.
No, not really unless they are K/9 machines. Non-closers are generally an inefficient use of innings.
Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025 14:36 pm
With Doval taking over closer duties in SF, Walker basically becomes useless.
I agree it’s a slight overpay, but it’s (usually) tough to pry away a top closer.
I do wonder how rational the closer market really is.
If you had 2 RPs who gave you the same IP, K, ERA, WHIP, but one closed and got 30 SVs vs. the non-closer getting 5 SVs, how much more is the closer really worth?
It would only depend on how much the extra 25 SVs were worth. If you were going to be first in saves anyway, they're worth nothing. If you were going to be near the top anyway, maybe they worth on 2-3 fantasy points. They would probably be worth the most if you were going to be 10th or 11th - near the bottom of what probably should be a bell curve - where the extra 25 SVs could move you up 5 or 6 points in the category.
So your sort of best case scenario is a closer being worth, maybe, 5-6 fantasy points, and likely a bit less than that. I'm not sure how much that worth overpaying for.
It served more needs than that. I used a couple of guys who aren't going to get me what I need to massively upgrade at the RP spot while freeing up roster spots I needed.
Getting a closer in my spot in the standings is more defensive than offensive. To compete, I need 10+ in as many categories as possible, so Hader raises my floor in saves while being additive on a micro level on ERA/WHIP & K/9. The move is worth it to not lose points... your reasoning above only considers the upside. There are only 8 saves separating 11 points from 6 points. I can't afford to leak 3-5 points.
Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑03 Jun 2025 14:36 pm
With Doval taking over closer duties in SF, Walker basically becomes useless.
I agree it’s a slight overpay, but it’s (usually) tough to pry away a top closer.
I do wonder how rational the closer market really is.
If you had 2 RPs who gave you the same IP, K, ERA, WHIP, but one closed and got 30 SVs vs. the non-closer getting 5 SVs, how much more is the closer really worth?
It would only depend on how much the extra 25 SVs were worth. If you were going to be first in saves anyway, they're worth nothing. If you were going to be near the top anyway, maybe they worth on 2-3 fantasy points. They would probably be worth the most if you were going to be 10th or 11th - near the bottom of what probably should be a bell curve - where the extra 25 SVs could move you up 5 or 6 points in the category.
So your sort of best case scenario is a closer being worth, maybe, 5-6 fantasy points, and likely a bit less than that. I'm not sure how much that worth overpaying for.
It served more needs than that. I used a couple of guys who aren't going to get me what I need to massively upgrade at the RP spot while freeing up roster spots I needed.
Getting a closer in my spot in the standings is more defensive than offensive. To compete, I need 10+ in as many categories as possible, so Hader raises my floor in saves while being additive on a micro level on ERA/WHIP & K/9. The move is worth it to not lose points... your reasoning above only considers the upside. There are only 8 saves separating 11 points from 6 points. I can't afford to leak 3-5 points.
Freeing up the roster spots is a fair point. There is some value in that as well.
Rodriguez was my 1st Round pick last year. Came to regret it BigTime.
As he dropped this year I was tempted snatch him a bit more cheaply.
Good Luck
Ya I’d like to see all the offers for J-Rod you rejected last year.
There weren't many. Other than you early on. Check of you have access. Curious myself and as to what I may have passed on
I don’t recall making an offer for Julio. Some of your asks for Semien early on bordered on insanity, so I don’t believe I made much of a push for J-Rod.
There is no “access” to rejected trade offers by other teams.
