The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

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zuck698
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by zuck698 »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:42 pm
zuck698 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:12 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 11:50 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 10:54 am Point 1 - “Less” leverage, not no leverage. It will cost more, but can be done at a non-crippling amount for the select few right players. Not EVERY single salary has to be extremely team friendly. It’s ok to pay a few guys fairly and maybe even one or two at market. The farm is there to offset such costs. There are many more roster slots to please you with league minimum salaries.
Yes, you can pay ~8 guys full market value. But you can also get those guys by signing them as FAs and not trading prospects to do so.

My point is, when I say they need ~18 Pre-ARB and ARB year players, if you are trading for a guy who you have to almost immediately pay a full market value contract to, you aren't filling one of those needed "value" spot AND you are trading away prospects who could.

If you are trading for a 3+ fWAR player who does have 4-5 years of team control left, then at least you are getting back a "value" player for all the prospects you are giving up.
Point 2 - We were talking payroll, which has reached 215 million with in-season additions - and you KNOW this, so you conveniently move the goal posts again to include “opening day”. Words matter.
As I said, if you would check the Cot's link:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.
Side question - Why do YOU CARE so [fork]ing much??! I don’t even think it is Bloom’s or ownerships plan to be THAT cheap, but to live under a reasonable budget. But any thread that discusses options other than your stupid fangraphs WAR plan, you make it your life’s work and duty to (bleep) all over it and filibuster every poster who respectfully disagrees or is just having some fun with the discussion.

You do realize no one here has a truly informed opinion on most of these matters, including both of us, right? We’re playing armchair GMs and managers for fun.
I care because:

(1) I know that the Cardinals are never going to have the resources of the big market teams and

(2) I would like to see the Cardinals win another World Series.

I want to see them stop sabotaging their chance by continuing to pursue a failed strategy that they've done for the past decade. The Cardinals haven't been failing just because of Mozeliak, they failed because the fundamental strategy he was given/pursuing was flawed.

If the Cardinals are going to win another WS any time soon, they have to attack them problem of roster construction from the direction of a Milwaukee, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, etc. (and then ultimately spend more money than those teams to do it BETTER) than from the direction of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, etc.
I would feel a lot better about your plans Matt, if either one of those 3 teams had ever won a World Series! They have not. Why are you so convinced that their strategy is the way to go when it has never worked for them? I don't expect you will have an answer different than your usual analytics but maybe you will surprise me.
What annoys me is that you act like I didn't already say "and then ultimately spend more money than those teams to do it better."

Spending $170 to $180 million is different than other teams trying to win spending $100 million.
What annoys me is that you act like that you are sure that Bill DeWitt will up his payroll to $180 million again. How can you be sure, when he and his son Fredo, have already stated that the payroll is tied directly to fan support? How do you get fan support when you have losing teams. What also annoys me is, there is no gray area with you. If anyone has any alternative thoughts, you quickly dismiss their ideas as being a waste of your time. You do not take into consideration all the variables that could go wrong with your plans, and if they do indeed go wrong, we are left with losing baseball year after year. You discount anyone who has an alternate opinion. You are not the judge and jury here Matt. I agree with a lot of what you have to say, but your delivery is a little rough around the edges for my take. Have a nice day.
Youboughtit
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by Youboughtit »

CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:50 pm
Youboughtit wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:33 pm
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:15 pm
zuck698 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:12 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 11:50 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 10:54 am Point 1 - “Less” leverage, not no leverage. It will cost more, but can be done at a non-crippling amount for the select few right players. Not EVERY single salary has to be extremely team friendly. It’s ok to pay a few guys fairly and maybe even one or two at market. The farm is there to offset such costs. There are many more roster slots to please you with league minimum salaries.
Yes, you can pay ~8 guys full market value. But you can also get those guys by signing them as FAs and not trading prospects to do so.

My point is, when I say they need ~18 Pre-ARB and ARB year players, if you are trading for a guy who you have to almost immediately pay a full market value contract to, you aren't filling one of those needed "value" spot AND you are trading away prospects who could.

If you are trading for a 3+ fWAR player who does have 4-5 years of team control left, then at least you are getting back a "value" player for all the prospects you are giving up.
Point 2 - We were talking payroll, which has reached 215 million with in-season additions - and you KNOW this, so you conveniently move the goal posts again to include “opening day”. Words matter.
As I said, if you would check the Cot's link:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.
Side question - Why do YOU CARE so [fork]ing much??! I don’t even think it is Bloom’s or ownerships plan to be THAT cheap, but to live under a reasonable budget. But any thread that discusses options other than your stupid fangraphs WAR plan, you make it your life’s work and duty to (bleep) all over it and filibuster every poster who respectfully disagrees or is just having some fun with the discussion.

You do realize no one here has a truly informed opinion on most of these matters, including both of us, right? We’re playing armchair GMs and managers for fun.
I care because:

(1) I know that the Cardinals are never going to have the resources of the big market teams and

(2) I would like to see the Cardinals win another World Series.

I want to see them stop sabotaging their chance by continuing to pursue a failed strategy that they've done for the past decade. The Cardinals haven't been failing just because of Mozeliak, they failed because the fundamental strategy he was given/pursuing was flawed.

If the Cardinals are going to win another WS any time soon, they have to attack them problem of roster construction from the direction of a Milwaukee, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, etc. (and then ultimately spend more money than those teams to do it BETTER) than from the direction of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, etc.
I would feel a lot better about your plans Matt, if either one of those 3 teams had ever won a World Series! They have not. Why are you so convinced that their strategy is the way to go when it has never worked for them? I don't expect you will have an answer different than your usual analytics but maybe you will surprise me.
He won’t. 3 fangraph war players and JJ and Doyle. Nothing else. Oh, and spend one day.
Remember when Reyes Gorman Carlson Walker etc where where Weatherholt/Doyle are now? All it takes is an arm injury fo a pitcher or a hitter to be overpowered by 100mph pitching, to think those 2 are more than nice prospects is fools gold. To buy tickets fans want proven stars or a WS caliber team (which will also require stars). Do the. Cardinals want their product to sell?
I remember. Walker at one point was the #1 rated MLB prospect overall. But JJ and Doyle are for real this time and all we need is 3 fan graphs 3 WAR….
To do what? How many 3 war players did the Dodger and Blue Jays have? Prospects can get a team to the playoffs but to win a WS it will require a top 12 payroll if not top 10 like 22006 and 2011. The winning formula does exhist and it is superstars supplemented with home grown talent.
2ninr
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by 2ninr »

Youboughtit wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:28 pm
2ninr wrote: 11 Jan 2026 06:22 am
Youboughtit wrote: 10 Jan 2026 20:40 pm
2ninr wrote: 10 Jan 2026 16:09 pm
Youboughtit wrote: 10 Jan 2026 12:17 pm
2ninr wrote: 10 Jan 2026 08:36 am
Youboughtit wrote: 09 Jan 2026 22:44 pm
fullswing wrote: 09 Jan 2026 21:45 pm How many superstars are there?
Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried
New York Mets: Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor.
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr..
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh.
Baltimore Orioles: Gunnar Henderson.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes.
Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal.
Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber.
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Mason Miller
Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte.
Houston Astros: Jeremy Peña, Yordan Alvarez, Josh Hader.
Texas Rangers: Corey Seager.
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton.
Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley.
Tampa Bay Rays: Junior Caminero.
Las Vegas As: Nick Kurtz.
Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Churio, Jacob Misiorowski
Chicago Cubs: Kyle Tucker.
Cleveland Guardians: Jose Ramirez.
Load Angeles Angels: Mike Trout.
Washington Nationals: James Wood.

Just a partial list off top of my head. All all star top 3 at position. And no Winn will never be anywhere close.
Winn is already close. GG SS . Willing to play without being 100%. He gets back to the approach at the plate he had in 24 he is a superstar just as much as most of those guys on your list.
Must be a top 5 SS bat along with his defense. Was 18th last year. Long way to go
I get your point that we need a few superstar players and at the present time we don't have that. But Winn will get there. Where is the rule that he has to be a top 5 offensive ss? It's ok to have your opinion-I certainly have mine. We could have a lengthy thread debating what qualifies as a superstar shortstop.
To be an all star he has to hit better than 18th at position, superstars make multiple all star games. Defense/Arm is 25% hit for average 25% power 25% running 25%. He has 2/4. Need to either hit .300 or 25HR consistently to be a superstar. Right now I would say he is closer to defensive specialist than superstar level
Like Witt Jr,
We've seen what happens when he tries to hit 25 homeruns. Let's abandon that approach. He can run and definitely approach .300. And I agree he needs to do it for a couple of years.
The. He is a VG SS. Not a superstar because he is missing a key characteristic. A superstar is a top 5 hitter at their position. Multiple All Star and HOF potential. I just don’t see than with Winn
We will revisit this after '26. I agree his offense has to be significantly better than '25. We just disagree about whether he can do it or not.
mattmitchl44
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:14 pm Point 2 - AS I SAID, you moved the goal post and used “opening day” payroll. You know what you did.
Just Google “have the stl cardinals ever exceeded a 200 million payroll” for gods sake.
No, I didn't. What I've said, twice, is that according to Cot's:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.

By Cot's figures, even with your "in season moves" the Cardinals YEAR END PAYROLL has never exceeded $180 million.

You can disagree with Cot's, if you want, but I never "moved the goal posts."
Point 3 - the team can compete with big market teams with a multi-tiered approach. Do you really think Chaim Bloom is drawing up a plan that simply states, we need 3 fangraph 3 war players? Why did BDW even hire him when he’s had you right here on CT all along.
Yes, they eventually will have to take a "multi-tiered approach." They will eventually have so sign FAs to fill holes on the roster. They will eventually have to raise payroll back to $170, $180 million to compete with the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc.
mattmitchl44
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

zuck698 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 13:03 pm What annoys me is that you act like that you are sure that Bill DeWitt will up his payroll to $180 million again. How can you be sure, when he and his son Fredo, have already stated that the payroll is tied directly to fan support?
It's the future so no one can guarantee anything.

But I know what teams - Atlanta, Houston, Philadelphia, etc. - who have gone down this path and come out the other side being successful have done. They've rolled back payroll, rebuilt, and then increased payroll again. I'm assuming the Cardinals know that that as well.

If you want to assume that the Cardinals will NEVER raise payroll again, you're welcome do so. But if that's true, then it is even more important that they adopt a Milwaukee, Cleveland, Tampa Bay approach - because they'll need to rely even more on young, cost controlled players if they are ever going to win a WS again.
mattmitchl44
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

Youboughtit wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:33 pm Remember when Reyes Gorman Carlson Walker etc where where Weatherholt/Doyle are now? All it takes is an arm injury fo a pitcher or a hitter to be overpowered by 100mph pitching, to think those 2 are more than nice prospects is fools gold. To buy tickets fans want proven stars or a WS caliber team (which will also require stars). Do the. Cardinals want their product to sell?
Everyone agrees that the Cardinals player development system has to be much better at delivering young, cost controlled talent to St. Louis.

But the prior failures of Carlson, Reyes, Gorman, Walker, etc. don't change the math - in order to compete with teams that have $250, $275, $300 million payrolls, the Cardinals don't have any other option that to have a lot of young, cost controlled talent. They simply have to - and that mostly requires having and developing prospects.
Youboughtit
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by Youboughtit »

2ninr wrote: 11 Jan 2026 13:11 pm
Youboughtit wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:28 pm
2ninr wrote: 11 Jan 2026 06:22 am
Youboughtit wrote: 10 Jan 2026 20:40 pm
2ninr wrote: 10 Jan 2026 16:09 pm
Youboughtit wrote: 10 Jan 2026 12:17 pm
2ninr wrote: 10 Jan 2026 08:36 am
Youboughtit wrote: 09 Jan 2026 22:44 pm
fullswing wrote: 09 Jan 2026 21:45 pm How many superstars are there?
Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried
New York Mets: Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor.
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr..
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh.
Baltimore Orioles: Gunnar Henderson.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes.
Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal.
Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber.
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Mason Miller
Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte.
Houston Astros: Jeremy Peña, Yordan Alvarez, Josh Hader.
Texas Rangers: Corey Seager.
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton.
Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley.
Tampa Bay Rays: Junior Caminero.
Las Vegas As: Nick Kurtz.
Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Churio, Jacob Misiorowski
Chicago Cubs: Kyle Tucker.
Cleveland Guardians: Jose Ramirez.
Load Angeles Angels: Mike Trout.
Washington Nationals: James Wood.

Just a partial list off top of my head. All all star top 3 at position. And no Winn will never be anywhere close.
Winn is already close. GG SS . Willing to play without being 100%. He gets back to the approach at the plate he had in 24 he is a superstar just as much as most of those guys on your list.
Must be a top 5 SS bat along with his defense. Was 18th last year. Long way to go
I get your point that we need a few superstar players and at the present time we don't have that. But Winn will get there. Where is the rule that he has to be a top 5 offensive ss? It's ok to have your opinion-I certainly have mine. We could have a lengthy thread debating what qualifies as a superstar shortstop.
To be an all star he has to hit better than 18th at position, superstars make multiple all star games. Defense/Arm is 25% hit for average 25% power 25% running 25%. He has 2/4. Need to either hit .300 or 25HR consistently to be a superstar. Right now I would say he is closer to defensive specialist than superstar level
Like Witt Jr,
We've seen what happens when he tries to hit 25 homeruns. Let's abandon that approach. He can run and definitely approach .300. And I agree he needs to do it for a couple of years.
The. He is a VG SS. Not a superstar because he is missing a key characteristic. A superstar is a top 5 hitter at their position. Multiple All Star and HOF potential. I just don’t see than with Winn
We will revisit this after '26. I agree his offense has to be significantly better than '25. We just disagree about whether he can do it or not.
Here is the average stats of a top 5 SS

.285 BA
23 HR
.843OPS
6.3 offensive WAR

You think that’s possible for him? SS is an offensive first position now.
Youboughtit
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by Youboughtit »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 13:43 pm
Youboughtit wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:33 pm Remember when Reyes Gorman Carlson Walker etc where where Weatherholt/Doyle are now? All it takes is an arm injury fo a pitcher or a hitter to be overpowered by 100mph pitching, to think those 2 are more than nice prospects is fools gold. To buy tickets fans want proven stars or a WS caliber team (which will also require stars). Do the. Cardinals want their product to sell?
Everyone agrees that the Cardinals player development system has to be much better at delivering young, cost controlled talent to St. Louis.

But the prior failures of Carlson, Reyes, Gorman, Walker, etc. don't change the math - in order to compete with teams that have $250, $275, $300 million payrolls, the Cardinals don't have any other option that to have a lot of young, cost controlled talent. They simply have to - and that mostly requires having and developing prospects.
Not arguing that. I am saying cutting payroll $100m and offering fans no superstar talent to pay to see and rebuilding the farm are not tied together. One is a necessity (farm) the other is a choice (reducing payroll) by the owner. Why do you feel the owner has to cut payroll over $100m to fix draft and develop? They are t just maintaining the $180m former payroll. They cut it by half. Even the Pirates and Red will be $30-$40m more than the Cardinals this season.
mattmitchl44
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

Youboughtit wrote: 11 Jan 2026 13:54 pm Not arguing that. I am saying cutting payroll $100m and offering fans no superstar talent to pay to see and rebuilding the farm are not tied together. One is a necessity (farm) the other is a choice (reducing payroll) by the owner. Why do you feel the owner has to cut payroll over $100m to fix draft and develop?
I've never said that they "have to" cut payroll to $100 million. I just don't care where their spending for 2026 ends up. To me, it's moot. They aren't going to be truly competitive in 2026, so whether they spend $80 million, $100 million, $120 million, etc. is neither here nor there. It doesn't "offend" me if they spend under $100 million, or over $150 million for 2026.

I've said that I do expect them to sign more FAs to short, 1-2 year contracts, and that I think they should do so. At least for the potential of being able to trade them for more prospects. If they sign a few more such FAs, their overall spending ends up wherever it ends up.

All I've said that I DON'T want to see the do this offseason is commit to long, expensive contacts like Alonso, Bregman, Schwarber, etc. I don't want them to commit now to guys who will likely be declining, but still be paid massive salaries, come 2028, 2029, etc. If you consider that to be "anti-superstar", then yes, I'm anti-superstar when it comes to this offseason.

Eventually, after the 2027, or 2028, etc. season, they WILL likely need to sign one or more of those "superstar" FA contracts. But that will be the time to do it, not now.
Last edited by mattmitchl44 on 11 Jan 2026 14:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
CorneliusWolfe
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

Youboughtit wrote: 11 Jan 2026 13:04 pm
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:50 pm
Youboughtit wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:33 pm
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:15 pm
zuck698 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:12 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 11:50 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 10:54 am Point 1 - “Less” leverage, not no leverage. It will cost more, but can be done at a non-crippling amount for the select few right players. Not EVERY single salary has to be extremely team friendly. It’s ok to pay a few guys fairly and maybe even one or two at market. The farm is there to offset such costs. There are many more roster slots to please you with league minimum salaries.
Yes, you can pay ~8 guys full market value. But you can also get those guys by signing them as FAs and not trading prospects to do so.

My point is, when I say they need ~18 Pre-ARB and ARB year players, if you are trading for a guy who you have to almost immediately pay a full market value contract to, you aren't filling one of those needed "value" spot AND you are trading away prospects who could.

If you are trading for a 3+ fWAR player who does have 4-5 years of team control left, then at least you are getting back a "value" player for all the prospects you are giving up.
Point 2 - We were talking payroll, which has reached 215 million with in-season additions - and you KNOW this, so you conveniently move the goal posts again to include “opening day”. Words matter.
As I said, if you would check the Cot's link:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.
Side question - Why do YOU CARE so [fork]ing much??! I don’t even think it is Bloom’s or ownerships plan to be THAT cheap, but to live under a reasonable budget. But any thread that discusses options other than your stupid fangraphs WAR plan, you make it your life’s work and duty to (bleep) all over it and filibuster every poster who respectfully disagrees or is just having some fun with the discussion.

You do realize no one here has a truly informed opinion on most of these matters, including both of us, right? We’re playing armchair GMs and managers for fun.
I care because:

(1) I know that the Cardinals are never going to have the resources of the big market teams and

(2) I would like to see the Cardinals win another World Series.

I want to see them stop sabotaging their chance by continuing to pursue a failed strategy that they've done for the past decade. The Cardinals haven't been failing just because of Mozeliak, they failed because the fundamental strategy he was given/pursuing was flawed.

If the Cardinals are going to win another WS any time soon, they have to attack them problem of roster construction from the direction of a Milwaukee, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, etc. (and then ultimately spend more money than those teams to do it BETTER) than from the direction of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, etc.
I would feel a lot better about your plans Matt, if either one of those 3 teams had ever won a World Series! They have not. Why are you so convinced that their strategy is the way to go when it has never worked for them? I don't expect you will have an answer different than your usual analytics but maybe you will surprise me.
He won’t. 3 fangraph war players and JJ and Doyle. Nothing else. Oh, and spend one day.
Remember when Reyes Gorman Carlson Walker etc where where Weatherholt/Doyle are now? All it takes is an arm injury fo a pitcher or a hitter to be overpowered by 100mph pitching, to think those 2 are more than nice prospects is fools gold. To buy tickets fans want proven stars or a WS caliber team (which will also require stars). Do the. Cardinals want their product to sell?
I remember. Walker at one point was the #1 rated MLB prospect overall. But JJ and Doyle are for real this time and all we need is 3 fan graphs 3 WAR….
To do what? How many 3 war players did the Dodger and Blue Jays have? Prospects can get a team to the playoffs but to win a WS it will require a top 12 payroll if not top 10 like 22006 and 2011. The winning formula does exhist and it is superstars supplemented with home grown talent.
Sarcasm man. I’m right there with you. I’ve defended your thread harder than anyone.
2ninr
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by 2ninr »

Youboughtit wrote: 11 Jan 2026 13:50 pm
2ninr wrote: 11 Jan 2026 13:11 pm
Youboughtit wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:28 pm
2ninr wrote: 11 Jan 2026 06:22 am
Youboughtit wrote: 10 Jan 2026 20:40 pm
2ninr wrote: 10 Jan 2026 16:09 pm
Youboughtit wrote: 10 Jan 2026 12:17 pm
2ninr wrote: 10 Jan 2026 08:36 am
Youboughtit wrote: 09 Jan 2026 22:44 pm
fullswing wrote: 09 Jan 2026 21:45 pm How many superstars are there?
Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried
New York Mets: Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor.
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr..
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh.
Baltimore Orioles: Gunnar Henderson.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes.
Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal.
Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber.
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Mason Miller
Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte.
Houston Astros: Jeremy Peña, Yordan Alvarez, Josh Hader.
Texas Rangers: Corey Seager.
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton.
Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley.
Tampa Bay Rays: Junior Caminero.
Las Vegas As: Nick Kurtz.
Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Churio, Jacob Misiorowski
Chicago Cubs: Kyle Tucker.
Cleveland Guardians: Jose Ramirez.
Load Angeles Angels: Mike Trout.
Washington Nationals: James Wood.

Just a partial list off top of my head. All all star top 3 at position. And no Winn will never be anywhere close.
Winn is already close. GG SS . Willing to play without being 100%. He gets back to the approach at the plate he had in 24 he is a superstar just as much as most of those guys on your list.
Must be a top 5 SS bat along with his defense. Was 18th last year. Long way to go
I get your point that we need a few superstar players and at the present time we don't have that. But Winn will get there. Where is the rule that he has to be a top 5 offensive ss? It's ok to have your opinion-I certainly have mine. We could have a lengthy thread debating what qualifies as a superstar shortstop.
To be an all star he has to hit better than 18th at position, superstars make multiple all star games. Defense/Arm is 25% hit for average 25% power 25% running 25%. He has 2/4. Need to either hit .300 or 25HR consistently to be a superstar. Right now I would say he is closer to defensive specialist than superstar level
Like Witt Jr,
We've seen what happens when he tries to hit 25 homeruns. Let's abandon that approach. He can run and definitely approach .300. And I agree he needs to do it for a couple of years.
The. He is a VG SS. Not a superstar because he is missing a key characteristic. A superstar is a top 5 hitter at their position. Multiple All Star and HOF potential. I just don’t see than with Winn
We will revisit this after '26. I agree his offense has to be significantly better than '25. We just disagree about whether he can do it or not.
Here is the average stats of a top 5 SS

.285 BA
23 HR
.843OPS
6.3 offensive WAR

You think that’s possible for him? SS is an offensive first position now.
I think he can except the homeruns. But his defense is elite and whether you want to acknowledge that or not-it still counts a lot, especially at ss.

And thanks for scouting those #'s. It lets me know what to look for as the season rolls along
CorneliusWolfe
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 13:16 pm
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:14 pm Point 2 - AS I SAID, you moved the goal post and used “opening day” payroll. You know what you did.
Just Google “have the stl cardinals ever exceeded a 200 million payroll” for gods sake.
No, I didn't. What I've said, twice, is that according to Cot's:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.

By Cot's figures, even with your "in season moves" the Cardinals YEAR END PAYROLL has never exceeded $180 million.

You can disagree with Cot's, if you want, but I never "moved the goal posts."
Point 3 - the team can compete with big market teams with a multi-tiered approach. Do you really think Chaim Bloom is drawing up a plan that simply states, we need 3 fangraph 3 war players? Why did BDW even hire him when he’s had you right here on CT all along.
Yes, they eventually will have to take a "multi-tiered approach." They will eventually have so sign FAs to fill holes on the roster. They will eventually have to raise payroll back to $170, $180 million to compete with the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc.
JFC man. You have way too much time on your hands. I personally don’t have to time to vet the entire internet against your one source.

But you know what…I f-ing surrender to your filibuster….-all we need is 3 fangraph 3 WAR players and sign someone 5 years from now and JJW and Doyle are the second coming. You win.
mattmitchl44
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Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by mattmitchl44 »

CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 14:11 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 13:16 pm
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:14 pm Point 2 - AS I SAID, you moved the goal post and used “opening day” payroll. You know what you did.
Just Google “have the stl cardinals ever exceeded a 200 million payroll” for gods sake.
No, I didn't. What I've said, twice, is that according to Cot's:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.

By Cot's figures, even with your "in season moves" the Cardinals YEAR END PAYROLL has never exceeded $180 million.

You can disagree with Cot's, if you want, but I never "moved the goal posts."
Point 3 - the team can compete with big market teams with a multi-tiered approach. Do you really think Chaim Bloom is drawing up a plan that simply states, we need 3 fangraph 3 war players? Why did BDW even hire him when he’s had you right here on CT all along.
Yes, they eventually will have to take a "multi-tiered approach." They will eventually have so sign FAs to fill holes on the roster. They will eventually have to raise payroll back to $170, $180 million to compete with the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc.
JFC man. You have way too much time on your hands. I personally don’t have to time to vet the entire internet against your one source.

But you know what…I f-ing surrender to your filibuster….-all we need is 3 fangraph 3 WAR players and sign someone 5 years from now and JJW and Doyle are the second coming. You win.
I gave you the link. If you want me to believe they've had payroll over $200 million, give me a link.

You just decided to get angry instead of actually understanding what I said. Which is your schtick more often than not.
CorneliusWolfe
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Posts: 1491
Joined: 02 May 2025 19:12 pm

Re: The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 14:17 pm
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 14:11 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 11 Jan 2026 13:16 pm
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 11 Jan 2026 12:14 pm Point 2 - AS I SAID, you moved the goal post and used “opening day” payroll. You know what you did.
Just Google “have the stl cardinals ever exceeded a 200 million payroll” for gods sake.
No, I didn't. What I've said, twice, is that according to Cot's:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.

By Cot's figures, even with your "in season moves" the Cardinals YEAR END PAYROLL has never exceeded $180 million.

You can disagree with Cot's, if you want, but I never "moved the goal posts."
Point 3 - the team can compete with big market teams with a multi-tiered approach. Do you really think Chaim Bloom is drawing up a plan that simply states, we need 3 fangraph 3 war players? Why did BDW even hire him when he’s had you right here on CT all along.
Yes, they eventually will have to take a "multi-tiered approach." They will eventually have so sign FAs to fill holes on the roster. They will eventually have to raise payroll back to $170, $180 million to compete with the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc.
JFC man. You have way too much time on your hands. I personally don’t have to time to vet the entire internet against your one source.

But you know what…I f-ing surrender to your filibuster….-all we need is 3 fangraph 3 WAR players and sign someone 5 years from now and JJW and Doyle are the second coming. You win.
I gave you the link. If you want me to believe they've had payroll over $200 million, give me a link.

You just decided to get angry instead of actually understanding what I said. Which is your schtick more often than not.
I googled than AI’d it and it said it has reached 215 million before, and I’ve seen other posters make similar references. So the internet and other posters were wrong, BFD.

I said you win, on all points. 3-3-5-JJ/D:

3 players
3 fWAR
Sign someone in 5 years
JJ and Doyle are gods

World Series here we come.
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