STLtoday.com

Baseball America mock 6.0....Carlos Collazo

1. Nationals ~ Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS, Okla.
2. Angels ~ Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
3. Mariners ~ Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon St.
4. Rockies ~ Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
5. Cardinals ~ Eli Willits, SS, Ft. Cobb-Broxton HS, Okla.
6. Pirates ~ Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS, Calif.
7. Marlins ~ Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS, Calif.
8. Blue Jays ~ JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS, MS
9. Reds ~ Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn

craviduce wrote: ↑08 Jul 2025 22:50 pm

Whatashame wrote: ↑08 Jul 2025 22:34 pm I’m not sure the Cardinals pass on Arnold if he’s there and take a HS project. I’m not sold on any of the 3 LH college pitchers but the Cardinals aren’t high on taking risks. I would personally pass on all 3 lefties but the Cardinals have to show me they are willing to take a risk.

Unless there's an Ike Irish curveball, I believe you're right on the money. It's going to come down to Jamie Arnold or a HS SS...pick one of Willits, Carlson, or Parker. And also to your point, the Cards don't have a risk taking persona when it comes to drafting. Often times taking what falls to them.

In the attempt of guessing the draft and what the Cards do.
I'd keep the possibility Doyle open.

If they go bat, I think that in their assessments, that bat has to project power.
55 or greater. JMO. There aren't that many of them projected with >55 and projected
at the top, even if you open the top up to top 20.

Holliday
Arquette
Parker
Irish
LaViolette

Jobafish wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 01:27 am

craviduce wrote: ↑08 Jul 2025 23:19 pm

82birds wrote: ↑08 Jul 2025 23:10 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑08 Jul 2025 22:50 pm

Whatashame wrote: ↑08 Jul 2025 22:34 pm I’m not sure the Cardinals pass on Arnold if he’s there and take a HS project. I’m not sold on any of the 3 LH college pitchers but the Cardinals aren’t high on taking risks. I would personally pass on all 3 lefties but the Cardinals have to show me they are willing to take a risk.

Unless there's an Ike Irish curveball, I believe you're right on the money. It's going to come down to Jamie Arnold or a HS SS...pick one of Willits, Carlson, or Parker. And also to your point, the Cards don't have a risk taking persona when it comes to drafting. Often times taking what falls to them.

does Bloom change that?

I'm not sure. It's Flores' draft, and Mo will be in the room, as it's his last draft.

That's an interesting question, 82. What is the philosophy this year? Do you pigeon hole the incoming guy? Do you buck all the work done by Mo's guys (Flores and Company?)

I don't know how the politics in the room will play out.

That’s the million dollar question. Who makes the final decision. If it’s Mo, I think he runs to the podium to pick Jamie Arnold. If it’s Chaim bloom, it’s probably one of the high school shortstops. Ive researched his previous pics, and he really likes picking high school prospects early in the draft. Teel being the only college player drafted in the first two rounds from 20-23 for Boston’s. Even dating back to his rays days. In 2019 when the rays drafted mcClanahan at 31, they still drafted liboritore first with pick 14.

That draft was quite the pitching haul for the Rays

Matthew Liberatore (1st round)
Shane McClanahan (1st round)
Taj Bradley (5th round)
Joe Ryan (7th round)

82birds wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 09:09 am

Jobafish wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 01:27 am

craviduce wrote: ↑08 Jul 2025 23:19 pm

82birds wrote: ↑08 Jul 2025 23:10 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑08 Jul 2025 22:50 pm

Whatashame wrote: ↑08 Jul 2025 22:34 pm I’m not sure the Cardinals pass on Arnold if he’s there and take a HS project. I’m not sold on any of the 3 LH college pitchers but the Cardinals aren’t high on taking risks. I would personally pass on all 3 lefties but the Cardinals have to show me they are willing to take a risk.

Unless there's an Ike Irish curveball, I believe you're right on the money. It's going to come down to Jamie Arnold or a HS SS...pick one of Willits, Carlson, or Parker. And also to your point, the Cards don't have a risk taking persona when it comes to drafting. Often times taking what falls to them.

does Bloom change that?

I'm not sure. It's Flores' draft, and Mo will be in the room, as it's his last draft.

That's an interesting question, 82. What is the philosophy this year? Do you pigeon hole the incoming guy? Do you buck all the work done by Mo's guys (Flores and Company?)

I don't know how the politics in the room will play out.

That’s the million dollar question. Who makes the final decision. If it’s Mo, I think he runs to the podium to pick Jamie Arnold. If it’s Chaim bloom, it’s probably one of the high school shortstops. Ive researched his previous pics, and he really likes picking high school prospects early in the draft. Teel being the only college player drafted in the first two rounds from 20-23 for Boston’s. Even dating back to his rays days. In 2019 when the rays drafted mcClanahan at 31, they still drafted liboritore first with pick 14.

from Jeff Gordon's article this morning:

While in control in Boston, Bloom wasn't shy about draft prep position players at high picks, including Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke. Bloom will be taking control of the Cardinals front office after this season, so it is an open question if his preferences will be felt a few months before he is the team's top decision-maker.

If prep picks are in play for Bloom. Then Seth Hernandez ought to rise to the top.

Anyone else going to throw up in their mouth a little when the first 8 teams are too chicken (I mean, risk averse) and Seth Hernandez ends up with the Reds?

Cujo's Mask wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 14:52 pm Anyone else going to throw up in their mouth a little when the first 8 teams are too chicken (I mean, risk averse) and Seth Hernandez ends up with the Reds?

For those who really follow this explain assuming Holliday and the top college pitchers are gone why wouldn't the Cards take Hernandez? A top notch prospect who is a fantastic athlete. Maybe they just don't rate him as high but how often have the Cards had the opportunity to take the top HS pitching prospect? That would seem to be hard to pass on.

bakker wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 15:12 pm

Cujo's Mask wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 14:52 pm Anyone else going to throw up in their mouth a little when the first 8 teams are too chicken (I mean, risk averse) and Seth Hernandez ends up with the Reds?

For those who really follow this explain assuming Holliday and the top college pitchers are gone why wouldn't the Cards take Hernandez? A top notch prospect who is a fantastic athlete. Maybe they just don't rate him as high but how often have the Cards had the opportunity to take the top HS pitching prospect? That would seem to be hard to pass on.

Check out the success rate of HS pitchers at the top of the draft over the last few decades and you will have your answer.

Best Podcast in Baseball
https://www.stltoday.com/podcasts/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b ... 0716525613

Derick Goold discusses the draft with JJ Cooper of Baseball America

Cujo's Mask wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 14:52 pm Anyone else going to throw up in their mouth a little when the first 8 teams are too chicken (I mean, risk averse) and Seth Hernandez ends up with the Reds?

I mean, credit to Cincinnati if they're willing to gamble on him. But when you're picking top 5, you need to hit and need to hit badly. While Hernandez has upside in spades, you probably get a guy with similar upside with a substantially higher floor.

Karmaloop3 wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 16:05 pm

Cujo's Mask wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 14:52 pm Anyone else going to throw up in their mouth a little when the first 8 teams are too chicken (I mean, risk averse) and Seth Hernandez ends up with the Reds?

I mean, credit to Cincinnati if they're willing to gamble on him. But when you're picking top 5, you need to hit and need to hit badly. While Hernandez has upside in spades, you probably get a guy with similar upside with a substantially higher floor.

Hunter Greene
Rhett Lowder
Chase Burns
Seth Hernandez
Chase Petty

that possible future rotation is incredibly sick.

craviduce wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 16:23 pm

Karmaloop3 wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 16:05 pm

Cujo's Mask wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 14:52 pm Anyone else going to throw up in their mouth a little when the first 8 teams are too chicken (I mean, risk averse) and Seth Hernandez ends up with the Reds?

I mean, credit to Cincinnati if they're willing to gamble on him. But when you're picking top 5, you need to hit and need to hit badly. While Hernandez has upside in spades, you probably get a guy with similar upside with a substantially higher floor.

Hunter Greene
Rhett Lowder
Chase Burns
Seth Hernandez
Chase Petty

that possible future rotation is incredibly sick.

I'd rather see a Liberatore, Pallante, McGreevy, Roby and Hernandez rotation for the Cardinals.

bakker wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 15:12 pm

Cujo's Mask wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 14:52 pm Anyone else going to throw up in their mouth a little when the first 8 teams are too chicken (I mean, risk averse) and Seth Hernandez ends up with the Reds?

For those who really follow this explain assuming Holliday and the top college pitchers are gone why wouldn't the Cards take Hernandez? A top notch prospect who is a fantastic athlete. Maybe they just don't rate him as high but how often have the Cards had the opportunity to take the top HS pitching prospect? That would seem to be hard to pass on.

why wouldn't a team take Hernandez? The success stories of HS RHP pitchers taken in the Top 10 of the draft can be counted on 1 hand, and you'd still have a couple fingers left over....as a result nearly every team shies away from that scenario.

I like Seth a lot, he's #1 on my draft board, but I understand why the Cards haven't focused on him much.

and then let's say he's a success, he makes the majors and is impactful in some capacity as a starter.....how long does it take a HS RHP to develop in the minors? 4-7 seasons...the two most recent success stories (last 10 years), have taken 4 years or 7 years.... Jackson Jobe and Hunter Greene. Do you have the patience of 4-7 seasons before they get to the Big Show...on a Top 5 pick? Most teams don't.

good read.
nice info on Willits and Arnold, one of whom could very well be the Cards pick:

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/ml ... 09307.html

What's got Arnold dropping in the draft? Seemed a month ago that he might not last to us.

Strummer Jones wrote: ↑09 Jul 2025 21:46 pm What's got Arnold dropping in the draft? Seemed a month ago that he might not last to us.

nothing really...last minute mocks speculating...he probably commands more of a bonus than Doyle, so the Angels probably pass on him. He can land 3rd to 10th, imo.

He's in play at 5th. Terrific body of work in college.

just for the heck of it....
what if....
Arquette falls to #5 and the Cards take him.

your thoughts?

(this is just a what if, since most experts think the Cards will take one of the college lefties or one of the HS SS)

there's a nice writeup on Arquette on that yahoo sports link I posted several posts ago.