In 1999 the Rebuilding Cardinals traded top prospects for a proven young SS with control

[juan good eye]

Yea that strategy worked out super well when they traded two starting pitchers for a .312 .376 .924 37hr 124 rbi gold glove all star outfielder named ozuna oh wait no it didn’t it kind of set the cardinals back and definitely helped kill the chances of a dynasty let’s go ahead and trade JJ and Doyle

That was Mo. The other was Jocketty.

Will Bloom be a Mo or a Jocketty? Or will he not even take big risks at all?

Was the Mulder trade a Mo or a Jocketty?

Exactly I liked jocketty didn’t like mo but when you trade prospects for established veterans there’s still no guarantee it works out. It would be dumb for the cardinals to
Trade JJ and Doyle and other prospects where they are at

Are you saying trading Looper was dumb in theory?

We are in a very similar place to the end of 1998, and trading Looper wasn’t was trading like JJW - we kept JD Drew and Ankiel. But we did trade 3-4 prospects behind them. A lot of our current prospects in the 4-15 ranked slots aren’t ever going to become major producers.

No, they’re not in a similar place as 98. The league has changed.

[mattmitchl44]

Yea that strategy worked out super well when they traded two starting pitchers for a .312 .376 .924 37hr 124 rbi gold glove all star outfielder named ozuna oh wait no it didn’t it kind of set the cardinals back and definitely helped kill the chances of a dynasty let’s go ahead and trade JJ and Doyle

That was Mo. The other was Jocketty.

Will Bloom be a Mo or a Jocketty? Or will he not even take big risks at all?

Was the Mulder trade a Mo or a Jocketty?

Exactly I liked jocketty didn’t like mo but when you trade prospects for established veterans there’s still no guarantee it works out. It would be dumb for the cardinals to
Trade JJ and Doyle and other prospects where they are at

Are you saying trading Looper was dumb in theory?

We are in a very similar place to the end of 1998, and trading Looper wasn’t was trading like JJW - we kept JD Drew and Ankiel. But we did trade 3-4 prospects behind them. A lot of our current prospects in the 4-15 ranked slots aren’t ever going to become major producers.

No, they’re not in a similar place as 98. The league has changed.

Yes, some don't want to acknowledge that with all of the modern information available ALL teams have gotten better on average at analyzing talent at the ML level. The smart application of advanced analytics and other methods has evened the playing field. There is so much information available on any player who has been playing in the majors for five, six, seven years that most to all teams are likely to have a really, really good read on just how valuable that player is - whether that's when considering a trade or FA signing. There is less uncertainty today in projecting forward just how good that player will, or will not, be in their eighth, ninth, tenth, etc. years.

It's much, much harder today for any GM to "put one over" on the 29 other teams when it comes to acquiring talent just by trading for or signing ML players. The "profit margins" in focusing on that part of the equation are getting smaller and smaller. Many teams - in particular the smaller market teams - have to specialize their ML evaluations and scouting toward finding average-to-good, but slightly undervalued players because those are the only players they can afford to think about acquiring anyway. So the Cardinals aren't going to be able to "corner the market" on such players and build their ML team based on them as the foundation.

Where teams CAN still show big "profit margins" is where uncertainty is high - the correct evaluation and projection of prospects who may be 1, 3, 5 years away from even playing in the majors. Be much better than the average ML team at doing that and you can gain a huge edge on the competition.

[2ninr]

Yea that strategy worked out super well when they traded two starting pitchers for a .312 .376 .924 37hr 124 rbi gold glove all star outfielder named ozuna oh wait no it didn’t it kind of set the cardinals back and definitely helped kill the chances of a dynasty let’s go ahead and trade JJ and Doyle

That was Mo. The other was Jocketty.

Will Bloom be a Mo or a Jocketty? Or will he not even take big risks at all?

Was the Mulder trade a Mo or a Jocketty?

Exactly I liked jocketty didn’t like mo but when you trade prospects for established veterans there’s still no guarantee it works out. It would be dumb for the cardinals to
Trade JJ and Doyle and other prospects where they are at

Are you saying trading Looper was dumb in theory?

We are in a very similar place to the end of 1998, and trading Looper wasn’t was trading like JJW - we kept JD Drew and Ankiel. But we did trade 3-4 prospects behind them. A lot of our current prospects in the 4-15 ranked slots aren’t ever going to become major producers.

No, they’re not in a similar place as 98. The league has changed.

Yes, some don't want to acknowledge that with all of the modern information available ALL teams have gotten better on average at analyzing talent at the ML level. The smart application of advanced analytics and other methods has evened the playing field. There is so much information available on any player who has been playing in the majors for five, six, seven years that most to all teams are likely to have a really, really good read on just how valuable that player is - whether that's when considering a trade or FA signing. There is less uncertainty today in projecting forward just how good that player will, or will not, be in their eighth, ninth, tenth, etc. years.

It's much, much harder today for any GM to "put one over" on the 29 other teams when it comes to acquiring talent just by trading for or signing ML players. The "profit margins" in focusing on that part of the equation are getting smaller and smaller. Many teams - in particular the smaller market teams - have to specialize their ML evaluations and scouting toward finding average-to-good, but slightly undervalued players because those are the only players they can afford to think about acquiring anyway. So the Cardinals aren't going to be able to "corner the market" on such players and build their ML team based on them as the foundation.

Where teams CAN still show big "profit margins" is where uncertainty is high - the correct evaluation and projection of prospects who may be 1, 3, 5 years away from even playing in the majors. Be much better than the average ML team at doing that and you can gain a huge edge on the competition.

That's the only way the Cardinals can be relevant for more than a year or two at a time in today's game. That's the direction it appears the organization is going.

[Vacardfan1964]

Stanton snubbed the Cardinals and John Mozeliak panicked. Ozuna was the rebound player and Mo didn't do his homework.

[Strummer Jones]

Yea that strategy worked out super well when they traded two starting pitchers for a .312 .376 .924 37hr 124 rbi gold glove all star outfielder named ozuna oh wait no it didn’t it kind of set the cardinals back and definitely helped kill the chances of a dynasty let’s go ahead and trade JJ and Doyle

That was Mo. The other was Jocketty.

Will Bloom be a Mo or a Jocketty? Or will he not even take big risks at all?

Was the Mulder trade a Mo or a Jocketty?

Exactly I liked jocketty didn’t like mo but when you trade prospects for established veterans there’s still no guarantee it works out. It would be dumb for the cardinals to
Trade JJ and Doyle and other prospects where they are at

Are you saying trading Looper was dumb in theory?

We are in a very similar place to the end of 1998, and trading Looper wasn’t was trading like JJW - we kept JD Drew and Ankiel. But we did trade 3-4 prospects behind them. A lot of our current prospects in the 4-15 ranked slots aren’t ever going to become major producers.

I get it you want to dump JJ and Doyle and other prospects in a futile attempt to try to win a wild card so they can lose in the first round but I disagree and thank god for the future of the cardinals bloom disagrees or else if they followed your plan the cardinals would be doomed for years to come

Except we weren't doomed after trading Looper. Or even after a bad trade like Haran.

In fairness to the Mulder trade, he did have a pretty good first year here.

Then his shoulder turned into pulled pork.

[12xu]

Stanton snubbed the Cardinals and John Mozeliak panicked. Ozuna was the rebound player and Mo didn't do his homework.

Yelich was the player Mo should have insisted on, when the Marlins kept saying he was not available. Mo should have been patient and stuck to his guns. Sure enough, after Mo traded for Ozuna, Yelich suddenly was also traded, to Milwaukee. The Marlins got 4 players who have never amounted to jack squat. Brinson was the main guy the Marlins coveted, and he stayed under the Mendoza line for his short 6 year career.

[ecleme22]

Gutsy move. No we weren't already in our window. No we hadn't already cleared all our old contracts. No we didn't do everything perfectly and 100% efficiently.

And no we didn't already have 2 4+ fWAR pre-arb players.
-we have 14 games out of JD drew so far - about what JJW might have at this point had we promoted him instead of playing roster protection games.
-we have a small sampling from Rick Ankiel - but nothing proven

We also an aging McGwire and would later bring in Tino Martinez. And we knew nothing about Pujols yet.

1999 was a bust, but we still went and got Edgar Renteria when he was available and gave up a first round pick - Braden Looper and others to get him.

We invested and kept him 6 years, and from 2000-2004 averaged 95 wins. 3 trips to the NLCS, 1 pennant and that trade was a big piece of setting the ground for a dynasty.

1. Renteria was barely 22 when traded for. Two years younger than Looper!
2. When Renteria was traded for, the 'aging' McGwire had just hit 70 HRs.
3. Tino Martinez was signed off the heels of 2000 and 2001 playoffs.

[Melville]

Gutsy move. No we weren't already in our window. No we hadn't already cleared all our old contracts. No we didn't do everything perfectly and 100% efficiently.

And no we didn't already have 2 4+ fWAR pre-arb players.
-we have 14 games out of JD drew so far - about what JJW might have at this point had we promoted him instead of playing roster protection games.
-we have a small sampling from Rick Ankiel - but nothing proven

We also an aging McGwire and would later bring in Tino Martinez. And we knew nothing about Pujols yet.

1999 was a bust, but we still went and got Edgar Renteria when he was available and gave up a first round pick - Braden Looper and others to get him.

We invested and kept him 6 years, and from 2000-2004 averaged 95 wins. 3 trips to the NLCS, 1 pennant and that trade was a big piece of setting the ground for a dynasty.

Excellent post.
Fantastic example.
This is why I alone have been first to correctly advise for many weeks now that, along with some of the MLB veteran names being bandied about from the STL roster, the CORRECT BASEBALL DECISION is to shop Mathews and Bernal as pieces of trade packages for an established, young, quality starting pitcher and outfielder - each with 3 or more years of control.
STL had depth in the system with catchers and LH starters and now is the right time to leverage that.
Zero question it is the right short term and long term play.
Hopefully Bloom is smart enough to understand that.
We shall see.

[mattmitchl44]

Yea that strategy worked out super well when they traded two starting pitchers for a .312 .376 .924 37hr 124 rbi gold glove all star outfielder named ozuna oh wait no it didn’t it kind of set the cardinals back and definitely helped kill the chances of a dynasty let’s go ahead and trade JJ and Doyle

That was Mo. The other was Jocketty.

Will Bloom be a Mo or a Jocketty? Or will he not even take big risks at all?

Was the Mulder trade a Mo or a Jocketty?

Exactly I liked jocketty didn’t like mo but when you trade prospects for established veterans there’s still no guarantee it works out. It would be dumb for the cardinals to
Trade JJ and Doyle and other prospects where they are at

Are you saying trading Looper was dumb in theory?

We are in a very similar place to the end of 1998, and trading Looper wasn’t was trading like JJW - we kept JD Drew and Ankiel. But we did trade 3-4 prospects behind them. A lot of our current prospects in the 4-15 ranked slots aren’t ever going to become major producers.

I get it you want to dump JJ and Doyle and other prospects in a futile attempt to try to win a wild card so they can lose in the first round but I disagree and thank god for the future of the cardinals bloom disagrees or else if they followed your plan the cardinals would be doomed for years to come

Except we weren't doomed after trading Looper. Or even after a bad trade like Haran.

In fairness to the Mulder trade, he did have a pretty good first year here.

Then his shoulder turned into pulled pork.

Mulder wasn't the same pitcher even in his first year as he was in Oakland. In his ace years in Oakland he had K/BB of ~3. In his last year in Oakland it had dropped to 1.7, then to 1.6 in St. Louis. Mulder had more "luck" than anything with the Cardinals in 2005 with a 3.64 ERA vs. a 4.30 FIP.

The red flags were there, the Cardinals just ignored them when they traded for him.