Why all the JJ hype.

[The Nard]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Given his age, college experience, talent, etc if he’s going to pan out I expect him to be 4 War by 2026 — assuming no injuries or any weird setbacks (mismanagement) — otherwise it probably won’t happen on an annual basis.

How many rookies, of any age, are All-Stars and, arguably, the best player on their team in their rookie season?

We know that the aging curve for most MLB players has them hitting their peak "prime" years from about age 26 to age 30.

Wetherholt's age 26 season won't be until 2029.

Many good players, who take care of their condition and fortunately can avoid early-career debilitating injuries, can extend that peak period quite a bit to, say, age 34 or so. Don’t rely on overall stats to evaluate players potentials It’s an individual thing.

[rage-STL]

For a top 10 prospect, there hasn't been THAT much hype IMO.

Have you watched him play?

No. Just what I read on CT.
Good reference- not much hype. It’s probably just my imagination.

JJ Wetherholt 2025 Minor League Highlights

Click the link and watch him play a bit!

[sikeston bulldog2]

For a top 10 prospect, there hasn't been THAT much hype IMO.

Have you watched him play?

No. Just what I read on CT.
Good reference- not much hype. It’s probably just my imagination.

JJ Wetherholt 2025 Minor League Highlights

Click the link and watch him play a bit!

I will. Thank you.

[Jatalk]

Good morning.

Very foggy out. Why all the hype.

This board has all ready given him a GG and selected him to be an allstar. I’ve never seen so much guaranteed optimism. I’m happy.

This is the major leagues. No one takes it by storm a whole season. Slumps and injuries will take their toll. How long is key.

I think of Mattmitch as I write this. He has JJ line itemed at a four War slot. His model cannot accept failure at that level. It would take 2 two war players to make up the discrepancy.

A lot of hope is being hyped here. In fact more hype than failure. Dangerous.

My point. A lot of eggs are being put in JJ basket. He seems as of the moment to be the biggest off season acquisition. Anything less than the hype will be tough on the team as a whole.

Any concerns about the optimism.

I don’t know about modeling and don’t necessarily believe in any WAR type stats.

I think he will be a very good player but I hate they hype:

1. How many times have we been disappointed with Cardinal hype on prospects?

2. You have to understand the organization is selling tickets. I know all the teams do this, but I sort of take the hype with a grain of salt.

3. Also I wonder if the hype sometimes works against the player mentally. All players struggle. The hype just adds more pressure.

All my opinion, which ain’t worth much.

[rockondlouie]

Good morning.

Very foggy out. Why all the hype.

This board has all ready given him a GG and selected him to be an allstar. I’ve never seen so much guaranteed optimism. I’m happy.

This is the major leagues. No one takes it by storm a whole season. Slumps and injuries will take their toll. How long is key.

I think of Mattmitch as I write this. He has JJ line itemed at a four War slot. His model cannot accept failure at that level. It would take 2 two war players to make up the discrepancy.

A lot of hope is being hyped here. In fact more hype than failure. Dangerous.

My point. A lot of eggs are being put in JJ basket. He seems as of the moment to be the biggest off season acquisition. Anything less than the hype will be tough on the team as a whole.

Any concerns about the optimism.

I don't think anyone's calling him a Gold Glove candidate BDog but sure hope he develops into one.

But the "hype" is warranted, this kid led all of college baseball in hitting!

If not for the hammie issue, he likely would've been the #1/2 draft pick.

Will he have his tough stretches?

Absolutely, only the rare Albert type talent takes MLB by storm and NEVER struggles.

But could he also be an elite hitter/base stealer?

Absolutely.

IMO the "hype" isn't hype, it appears to be justified opinions based on actual performance.

[11WSChamps]

Good morning.

Very foggy out. Why all the hype.

This board has all ready given him a GG and selected him to be an allstar. I’ve never seen so much guaranteed optimism. I’m happy.

This is the major leagues. No one takes it by storm a whole season. Slumps and injuries will take their toll. How long is key.

I think of Mattmitch as I write this. He has JJ line itemed at a four War slot. His model cannot accept failure at that level. It would take 2 two war players to make up the discrepancy.

A lot of hope is being hyped here. In fact more hype than failure. Dangerous.

My point. A lot of eggs are being put in JJ basket. He seems as of the moment to be the biggest off season acquisition. Anything less than the hype will be tough on the team as a whole.

Any concerns about the optimism.

Fans looking to cling to any light at the end of the tunnel.

Should be solid but is not the generational talent the organization needs to get them out of this morass.

[sikeston bulldog2]

Good morning.

Very foggy out. Why all the hype.

This board has all ready given him a GG and selected him to be an allstar. I’ve never seen so much guaranteed optimism. I’m happy.

This is the major leagues. No one takes it by storm a whole season. Slumps and injuries will take their toll. How long is key.

I think of Mattmitch as I write this. He has JJ line itemed at a four War slot. His model cannot accept failure at that level. It would take 2 two war players to make up the discrepancy.

A lot of hope is being hyped here. In fact more hype than failure. Dangerous.

My point. A lot of eggs are being put in JJ basket. He seems as of the moment to be the biggest off season acquisition. Anything less than the hype will be tough on the team as a whole.

Any concerns about the optimism.

Fans looking to cling to any light at the end of the tunnel.

Should be solid but is not the generational talent the organization needs to get them out of this morass.

Great reference- fans looking to cling to any light. One of my point. Been 12 years since last WS appearance. Are they getting desperate.

Desperado. Why don’t you come to your senses.

[Basil Shabazz]

JJW is considered a “can’t-miss” prospect because he does almost everything well — he hits for average, rarely swings and misses, gets on base, runs well, plays multiple positions, and has already moved quickly through the minors. He’s not completely risk-free, but his skillset and performance point to a long-term, high-impact major leaguer.

Why is he a top prospect?

• Elite Contact Skills – At West Virginia he hit .449 in 2023, one of the best averages in college baseball. Scouts say he has some of the best bat-to-ball skills in his entire draft class, with an extremely high contact rate.

• Plate Discipline / On-Base Ability – He doesn’t chase many pitches, and in parts of the minors has walked more than he’s struck out. In 2025 he put up strong on-base numbers, including a .395 OBP during a month split between AA and AAA.

• Power & Hard Contact – He’s not a classic slugger, but he hits the ball hard. He sprays a lot of loud line drives, not just weak contact, which gives him more power upside than a typical contact hitter.

• Speed / Baserunning – He’s a plus runner and stole 23 bases in 109 games in 2025. His speed gives him extra value on both sides of the ball.

• Defensive Versatility – He can play shortstop, second base, or third base. His defense is solid everywhere he’s played, and there aren’t any major concerns with his glove.

• Quick Climb Through the Minors – He reached Triple-A very quickly after being drafted, and he won the Cardinals’ Minor League Player of the Year award in 2025.

• Work Ethic / Makeup – Coaches rave about his preparation, work habits, and ability to make adjustments. He’s considered extremely mature in his approach.

• Draft Pedigree – He was the 7th overall pick in 2024 and might have gone even higher if not for a hamstring issue. Teams viewed him as a polished, big-league-ready hitter from day one.

• Accolades / Rankings – He’s been consistently ranked as one of the Cardinals’ best prospects and one of the best prospects in all of baseball. He also played in the 2025 All-Star Futures Game.

As for his MLB outlook, the biggest unknown is how much power he’ll end up showing. Is he a 10–15 homer guy, or more of a 20–25 homer guy? That’s the main question. But with his elite contact skills and on-base ability, he looks like an .800+ OPS hitter at minimum, and possibly much more.

[ramfandan]

Don't know where this Gold Glove. the OP is referring to comes from that is claimed 'everyone is giving him .
Wetherholt , by his own admission, is a 'hit first' player . Suggest you watch Wetherholt from when JJ was in AA ball video discuss his game.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wXiRHs3yOwc


Larry Day, farm director , wanted him to be more versatile to play all three infield spots so JJ (as stated in his video ) worked for abougt 5 weeks on various drill movements necessary for a 3rd baseman. After over a month of that , then they put him in some games at 3rd.
RIegardless of what postion(s) they put him at in 2026, he just wants to be able to play well enough on defense that the team can trust him there.
As I said, the kid can hit . That is his ticket to the MLB. How good he becomes defensively remains to be seen. Nothing I have ready from scouting reports , etc. ever claimed he was an Ozzie Smith in the field .

[sikeston bulldog2]

JJW is considered a “can’t-miss” prospect because he does almost everything well — he hits for average, rarely swings and misses, gets on base, runs well, plays multiple positions, and has already moved quickly through the minors. He’s not completely risk-free, but his skillset and performance point to a long-term, high-impact major leaguer.

Why is he a top prospect?

• Elite Contact Skills – At West Virginia he hit .449 in 2023, one of the best averages in college baseball. Scouts say he has some of the best bat-to-ball skills in his entire draft class, with an extremely high contact rate.

• Plate Discipline / On-Base Ability – He doesn’t chase many pitches, and in parts of the minors has walked more than he’s struck out. In 2025 he put up strong on-base numbers, including a .395 OBP during a month split between AA and AAA.

• Power & Hard Contact – He’s not a classic slugger, but he hits the ball hard. He sprays a lot of loud line drives, not just weak contact, which gives him more power upside than a typical contact hitter.

• Speed / Baserunning – He’s a plus runner and stole 23 bases in 109 games in 2025. His speed gives him extra value on both sides of the ball.

• Defensive Versatility – He can play shortstop, second base, or third base. His defense is solid everywhere he’s played, and there aren’t any major concerns with his glove.

• Quick Climb Through the Minors – He reached Triple-A very quickly after being drafted, and he won the Cardinals’ Minor League Player of the Year award in 2025.

• Work Ethic / Makeup – Coaches rave about his preparation, work habits, and ability to make adjustments. He’s considered extremely mature in his approach.

• Draft Pedigree – He was the 7th overall pick in 2024 and might have gone even higher if not for a hamstring issue. Teams viewed him as a polished, big-league-ready hitter from day one.

• Accolades / Rankings – He’s been consistently ranked as one of the Cardinals’ best prospects and one of the best prospects in all of baseball. He also played in the 2025 All-Star Futures Game.

As for his MLB outlook, the biggest unknown is how much power he’ll end up showing. Is he a 10–15 homer guy, or more of a 20–25 homer guy? That’s the main question. But with his elite contact skills and on-base ability, he looks like an .800+ OPS hitter at minimum, and possibly much more.

Impressive write. Like always. So the hype is warranted, and anything short of it, would hurt the team effort to both build and eventually win.

[ramfandan]

The reason JJ has such high evaluations is his elite 'hit skills'. The guy strikes out very little as he elite pitch recognition skills. That was not taught but comes naturally in his eye-hand coordination. So his whole life , JJ has not been a 'chaser' that a lot of players do at the plate.
So he swings at mostly strikes and then he has the very high ability to put the bat on the ball solidly (something else not taught to him but came naturallly ) . While I am not comparing his overall future success to this major leaguer , a player that does come to mind that has those two traits at a super high level is Juan Soto. Soto has always had one of the lowest chase rates in the MLB The guy takes a ton of walks as he rarely will swing at anything not in the strikezone.

[Cardinals4Life]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce.

And they need to just their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are not putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

Yes . You have been clear. Again not a JJ bash here. Just worried the kid might have growing pains, counter to everyone’s expectations.

Then concerned if he isn’t all that initially , how it affects your model going forward. I like your layout. I’m now starting to pick at it to determine the durability and endurance of time.

As with any plan for an uncertain future, you always have to be ready to make changes as circumstances develop.

If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years, you're going to have to pivot. You might have to start trading Winn, Herrera, etc. for more "high ceiling" prospects to reload and build toward 2032, 2033. That's just reality.

Finally, you admitted it Matt, though inadvertently. Yes, your plan will have us perpetually trading guys for "high ceiling" prospects until we are dead. There will always be an excuse. There will always be a guy's getting too expensive, a guy just didnt pan out, a guy gets hurt, etc. That's the biggest problem with trying to develop your entire team internally. It rarely happens. Timelines don't line up, players get hurt, disappoint, and a thousand other things.

[ScotchMIrish]

Because at this stage that's all we have. 2 losing seasons in the last 3.

[Cardinals4Life]

Good morning.

Very foggy out. Why all the hype.

This board has all ready given him a GG and selected him to be an allstar. I’ve never seen so much guaranteed optimism. I’m happy.

This is the major leagues. No one takes it by storm a whole season. Slumps and injuries will take their toll. How long is key.

I think of Mattmitch as I write this. He has JJ line itemed at a four War slot. His model cannot accept failure at that level. It would take 2 two war players to make up the discrepancy.

A lot of hope is being hyped here. In fact more hype than failure. Dangerous.

My point. A lot of eggs are being put in JJ basket. He seems as of the moment to be the biggest off season acquisition. Anything less than the hype will be tough on the team as a whole.

Any concerns about the optimism.

I don’t know about modeling and don’t necessarily believe in any WAR type stats.

I think he will be a very good player but I hate they hype:

1. How many times have we been disappointed with Cardinal hype on prospects?

2. You have to understand the organization is selling tickets. I know all the teams do this, but I sort of take the hype with a grain of salt.

3. Also I wonder if the hype sometimes works against the player mentally. All players struggle. The hype just adds more pressure.

All my opinion, which ain’t worth much.

JA,

JJW is 10x the player guys like Walker, Gorman, and Carlson are/were in the minors. He is a polished, college player who knows how to play. Those orher three were HS picks who were drafted based on attributes (power, size, projectability, etc.). JJW was drafted for his actual baseball prowess. He is an extremely good player. He is more ready than thoae guys were. I don't think you'll be disappointed.

[mattmitchl44]

To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce.

And they need to just their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are not putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

Yes . You have been clear. Again not a JJ bash here. Just worried the kid might have growing pains, counter to everyone’s expectations.

Then concerned if he isn’t all that initially , how it affects your model going forward. I like your layout. I’m now starting to pick at it to determine the durability and endurance of time.

As with any plan for an uncertain future, you always have to be ready to make changes as circumstances develop.

If Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. don't become 4+ fWAR players in 3, 4, etc. years, you're going to have to pivot. You might have to start trading Winn, Herrera, etc. for more "high ceiling" prospects to reload and build toward 2032, 2033. That's just reality.

Finally, you admitted it Matt, though inadvertently. Yes, your plan will have us perpetually trading guys for "high ceiling" prospects until we are dead. There will always be an excuse. There will always be a guy's getting too expensive, a guy just didnt pan out, a guy gets hurt, etc. That's the biggest problem with trying to develop your entire team internally. It rarely happens. Timelines don't line up, players get hurt, disappoint, and a thousand other things.

There is nothing to "admit." I've never said anything to the contrary.

You can fear whatever you want, but - again - there is no feasible choice other than to develop a lot of young, cost controlled talent if the Cardinals are really going to compete with teams that can sustain payrolls that are 50%, 75%, etc. greater. There just isn't an alternative.

That Cardinals CANNOT beat the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. at their own game of brute force spending as the path to winning.

And, again, we already KNOW that teams CAN deliver the amount of talent I've sketched out elsewhere to their ML teams on basically a perpetual basis because the Brewers, Indians, and Rays ALREADY DO IT.

[ramfandan]

Unsure how many of you can watch this video from the Post Dispatch article yesterday when he did a Zoom interview for the newspaper.

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/profess ... e4400.html

If you cannot, JJ addressed the difference between going to training camp last year to this year. Last year was to get a taste of the majors . He noted that he was not going to step on anyone's toes. He knew he wasn't being considered to make the 2025 roster.
This time around is different . 'Last year I was there to get an experience . This year I am there to make the team.'
Last year , I was the new guy so I was a bit distant and didn't want to step on any toes. This year will be different. I will have more meaningful discussions with the coaches and focus more on my development.

Also, recently his off season program has been mainly lifting and hitting. He will now start to add the defensive part .

Sure that he will play at both 2nd and 3rd initially for the coaches to get a feel where he may play best in the field. I do expect some errors at either or both spots. That is to be expected . It is his hitting that will always be his calling card . Again , some perennial All Star guys are excellent 'hitters' and average fielders . Juan Soto was never mistaken as a Gold Glove outfielder. How many teams would want Soto on their team despite not playing elite defensively .. All of them !