Loser Mentality

[Cardinals4Life]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Yes, that is all. Cards can afford to carry some players of this magnitude. We have a team full of YOUR "cost-controlled" young players. You are going to have to pay some pillars.

They can't afford four $25 to $30 million players AND pay for a good enough rest of the roster to support them unless they have even more young, cost controlled players than I project that they need.

They don't have anywhere close to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players to make it work right now.

Having Gorman at -0.2 fWAR, Walker at -1.2 fWAR, Ryan Fernandez, etc. are not contributing, as of now at least, to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players they need.

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

So let's see:
1. We lose the prospect return from not trading Sonny Gray.
2. We lose the money saved for keeping Sonny Gray.
3. We lose prospects from acquiring a pre arb starter.
Donovan can net us this piece.
4. We lose prospects we could've gotten for trading Contreras.
5. We lose money saved for keeping Contreras.
6. We lose the prospect return for Romero.
7. We lose prospects we traded for a pre arb reliever
Who are we trading for?
8. We lose at least 50-60mil in financial flexibility in 2026-2027 and beyond.

Oh, and we are dependent on a rotation featuring a 36 year old Gray, an unproven McGreevy, and Libby who

You have Valdez as your ace, Gray as a #2 (which he really is), a newly acquired #3, Liberatore, and McGreevy.

has yet to show he's a workhorse. And no 6th starter.
Oh, and we are dependent on Gorman, Saggese, Crooks and Scott.

Incorrect. With the addition of Bellinger and Suarez, you AREN'T dependent on Gorman. That's the point. I wouldnt say you are ever dependent on a backup C and UT infielder.

Lovely.

Yeah, so your plan isn't a very good plan unless you think the world is going to end after the 2026 season. You drastically reduce the number of prospects in your system, while adding significantly to the payroll, and the roster (both starters and position players) remains very vulnerable and unproven.

You can be the Angels GM. This is the kind of [shirt] they've done for 20 years...

Sorry that some fans want to actually win and not try and "save" money and collect prospects. The MLB club is there to win, not sell our players for a bunch of unproven kids and save the owner money.

Say what you want, but that team listed would being the playoffs and competing for a title. I'd rather have that than perpetual losing and watching the Memphis Redbirds play their home games in STL.

[Cardinals4Life]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Well, that would probably do it, but it wouldn’t cost nearly that much and you know it. You’re just exaggerating to try and prove your point is the correct one. There are other options, DeWitt just refuses to use them and you won’t budge off of your narrative to admit there are either.

So…these quality free agents ……they are going to have offers from other clubs…most of them currently much more competitive than STL

Why would they pass up those opportunities to sign with Stl?

None of these “sign 3 or 4 top free agents” ever explain the question you’ve asked at least 3 times in this thread alone.

Remember, this club’s biggest FA contract ever was given to Matt Holliday about 17 years ago.

Now that they expect the team to go sign 3 or 4 guys whose contracts will all be higher than Holliday’s? To come to a team that’s 20 under .500 over the past 3 years?

This organization won’t do that. Nor should they at this point.
And the guy who said “that’s Bloom’s job” doesn’t count.

And why would the players want to sign on a team like that when they can sign with a better team for similar money

You have to have a plan to sell to the players. Look what the Miami Heat did when they acquired the Big 3. It was a plan and a pitch that the players bought into. Miami wasnt any good before that.

[mattmitchl44]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Yes, that is all. Cards can afford to carry some players of this magnitude. We have a team full of YOUR "cost-controlled" young players. You are going to have to pay some pillars.

They can't afford four $25 to $30 million players AND pay for a good enough rest of the roster to support them unless they have even more young, cost controlled players than I project that they need.

They don't have anywhere close to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players to make it work right now.

Having Gorman at -0.2 fWAR, Walker at -1.2 fWAR, Ryan Fernandez, etc. are not contributing, as of now at least, to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players they need.

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

So let's see:
1. We lose the prospect return from not trading Sonny Gray.
2. We lose the money saved for keeping Sonny Gray.
3. We lose prospects from acquiring a pre arb starter.
Donovan can net us this piece.
4. We lose prospects we could've gotten for trading Contreras.
5. We lose money saved for keeping Contreras.
6. We lose the prospect return for Romero.
7. We lose prospects we traded for a pre arb reliever
Who are we trading for?
8. We lose at least 50-60mil in financial flexibility in 2026-2027 and beyond.

Oh, and we are dependent on a rotation featuring a 36 year old Gray, an unproven McGreevy, and Libby who

You have Valdez as your ace, Gray as a #2 (which he really is), a newly acquired #3, Liberatore, and McGreevy.

has yet to show he's a workhorse. And no 6th starter.
Oh, and we are dependent on Gorman, Saggese, Crooks and Scott.

Incorrect. With the addition of Bellinger and Suarez, you AREN'T dependent on Gorman. That's the point. I wouldnt say you are ever dependent on a backup C and UT infielder.

Lovely.

Yeah, so your plan isn't a very good plan unless you think the world is going to end after the 2026 season. You drastically reduce the number of prospects in your system, while adding significantly to the payroll, and the roster (both starters and position players) remains very vulnerable and unproven.

You can be the Angels GM. This is the kind of [shirt] they've done for 20 years...

Sorry that some fans want to actually win and not try and "save" money and collect prospects. The MLB club is there to win, not sell our players for a bunch of unproven kids and save the owner money.

Say what you want, but that team listed would being the playoffs and competing for a title. I'd rather have that than perpetual losing and watching the Memphis Redbirds play their home games in STL.

No one is proposing a strategy just to save the owners money.

What is being proposed is a strategy which can maximize the talent on the roster in 2028, 2029 so that it peaks higher than brute force spending for 2026 and gives them a better chance to make a WS run.

[ecleme22]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Yes, that is all. Cards can afford to carry some players of this magnitude. We have a team full of YOUR "cost-controlled" young players. You are going to have to pay some pillars.

They can't afford four $25 to $30 million players AND pay for a good enough rest of the roster to support them unless they have even more young, cost controlled players than I project that they need.

They don't have anywhere close to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players to make it work right now.

Having Gorman at -0.2 fWAR, Walker at -1.2 fWAR, Ryan Fernandez, etc. are not contributing, as of now at least, to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players they need.

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

So let's see:
1. We lose the prospect return from not trading Sonny Gray.
2. We lose the money saved for keeping Sonny Gray.
3. We lose prospects from acquiring a pre arb starter.
Donovan can net us this piece.
4. We lose prospects we could've gotten for trading Contreras.
5. We lose money saved for keeping Contreras.
6. We lose the prospect return for Romero.
7. We lose prospects we traded for a pre arb reliever
Who are we trading for?
8. We lose at least 50-60mil in financial flexibility in 2026-2027 and beyond.

Oh, and we are dependent on a rotation featuring a 36 year old Gray, an unproven McGreevy, and Libby who

You have Valdez as your ace, Gray as a #2 (which he really is), a newly acquired #3, Liberatore, and McGreevy.

has yet to show he's a workhorse. And no 6th starter.
Oh, and we are dependent on Gorman, Saggese, Crooks and Scott.

Incorrect. With the addition of Bellinger and Suarez, you AREN'T dependent on Gorman. That's the point. I wouldnt say you are ever dependent on a backup C and UT infielder.

Lovely.

Yeah, so your plan isn't a very good plan unless you think the world is going to end after the 2026 season. You drastically reduce the number of prospects in your system, while adding significantly to the payroll, and the roster (both starters and position players) remains very vulnerable and unproven.

You can be the Angels GM. This is the kind of [shirt] they've done for 20 years...

Sorry that some fans want to actually win and not try and "save" money and collect prospects. The MLB club is there to win, not sell our players for a bunch of unproven kids and save the owner money.

Say what you want, but that team listed would being the playoffs and competing for a title. I'd rather have that than perpetual losing and watching the Memphis Redbirds play their home games in STL.

You get an A for effort.
But an F for a [fork]ing stupid idea.


Collecting prospects is actually very important for this org right now. And saving money today so, when your roster is ready, you can use it tomorrow is a good idea too.

What's not a good idea is spending a ton of money and prospects on a team where your pitching features McGreevy, Libby and Unknown pitcher in the rotation with no 6th starter.

Then what if the team is like 5-6 over .500 at the ASB? Spend more prospects to sure up weak spots?

By 2027, your system will be (bleep).

[Melville]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

Where is Arenado and how much are you paying him to play someplace else?

Anywhere else and whatever it takes.

[Melville]

I am highly confident that I am the only person who was adamantly opposed to the Pujols reunion; adamantly opposed to the Molina extensions in 2018, 2021, and 2022; and adamantly opposed to the 2022 and 2023 Wainwright extensions.
Nearly 110M wasted - and 6 seasons of opportunity stupidly denied to younger players on the rise.
Those decisions directly led to the current situation - and the TOXIC CULTURE which quickly defined the team.
Though I am extremely confident that I alone correctly understood, explained, and opposed the massive mistake the organization was taking in these bone-headed decisions, I also recognize that my memory of every post on this forum on that specific topic in not infallible.
If you are stating you opposed each of those contracts as well, since it is my nature to always see the best on others, I believe you.

Your first sentence is incorrect.

Many others are thought those moves were bad, including me.

Always kind and gracious to a fault, I believe the best of others.
If you claim to have opposed all 6 of those decisions as I did, I choose to believe you.
If you predicted, as I did, that those moves would inevitably cause the following tailspin and caused the TOXIC CULTURE which defined the organization as a result, you are to be congratulated for seeing the future as perfectly as I did.

As far as Pujols he carried that team the second half while the “MVP’s” were fading through Sept into the playoffs in OCT

He was fed meatballs in a league wide effort to get him to 700 HR.
It was all about Pujols/Wainwright/Pujols achieving one individual selfish benchmark or another.
They were the ME3.
Created a TOXIC CULTURE which has badly damaged the organization every single day since.

Well you may be correct about the meatballs…..but if so this isn’t the sport we’re all logging in here to debate everyday….its a rigged reality show

The Ohtani Rule was rigged by MLB to inflate his offensive numbers - primarily HR.
The steroid era was rigged by MLB to inflate offensive numbers - primarily HR.
And Pujols was fed meatballs in a coordinated, if unspoken, way to inflate his HR totals.
And now we have the multi-billion dollar betting industry subsidizing the sport.
Draw your own conclusions.

lol so now you’re branching out into tin foil hat territory. That’s one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read on here impressive

I understand that facts may be inconvenient for you, but hey are facts nonetheless.
Fact is, the Ohtani Rule was put in place to maximize his production numbers alone.
Fact is, MLB most certainly looked the other way when the steroid era put more fans in seats and more eyes on the TV screen.
Fact is, MLB is now embracing organized gambling as a business partner.
Fact is, Pujols was brought to STL to chase 700 career HR and it was a major marketing track for MLB - and he started seeing meatballs just in time to get him across the finish line.
And fact is, STL openly admitted that the Molina and Wainwright extensions were put in place to allow them to reach specifically - and heavily marketed - milestones.
But then, you are already fully aware of these facts.
The only question is why you are pretending otherwise

Surely you’re not actually dumb enough to believe MLB went to every major league pitcher who pujols was going to face including those who were in pennant races and pitching for free agent contracts and some pitching to try to keep their jobs in the major leagues and told them and their teams to throw pujols meat balls so he could hit home runs and they agreed to do it and none of them leaked it to the media? I know you are prone to saying dumb[shirt] but this is top tier dumb even for you I have to slate you for just how dumb you can be it’s impressive levels of dumb

Good to see you now admitting the Ohtani Rule, the steroid era, and the gambling partnerships were all embraced by MLB and are not "tin foil conspiracies" as you first claimed.
Your only remaining objection above is the desire on the part of MLB pitchers (and MLB) to see Pujols reach 700 career HR.
So, let's look at the data.
In 2022, 42.5 year old Pujols has a very curious, and historically nearly impossible, season.
His ISO rate was .280 - his highest in 12 years by a massive margin, and higher than his age 22 (2nd in MVP voting), age 25 season (won the MVP), age 27 (all-star), and age 31 (won world series) seasons.
His HR percentage was the 2nd highest of his entire 22 year career.
His hard hit rate was the 2nd highest for all seasons from his career in which that was tracked.
His fly ball pull rate was the highest of his career, the percentage of fastballs he saw was a career low, and his run value against FB's was ridiculously inflated above any other year since tracking began (he was +16 against FB's at age 42.5, after being -29 the prior 5 seasons combined).
There are only 2 options.
Pujols was magically and vastly better at age 42.5 than he had been more for than a decade - and was making quality contact equal to his peak legendary seasons when he was in his mid 20's.
Or he was being fed fat pitches at reduced speeds which he could handle at age 42.5- which, of course, the data shows to be the case.
Facts.
All I do.
Always politely, always with kindness, always graciously.
You are welcome to accept or deny facts, whichever you prefer.
But they are facts, nonetheless.

His lowest speed for a home run in 2022 was 80.8mph and the fastest pitch he hit a home run on was 94.1mph. He definitely didn't hit any heaters. Not that 94.1mph is slow, but nothing above that speed for the year.

Excellent post.
Data never lies.
Data never cares about opinion.
Data is always where the answer is found.
Fact is, Pujols was fed slower, easier pitches in 2022, which he could catch up to and pull.
He did not magically improve after a decade a decline.
He did not revive his skill level to that of his mid-20's dominance.
Pitchers simply made it easier for him - and their pitcher offerings were completley by design.

[45s]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Well, that would probably do it, but it wouldn’t cost nearly that much and you know it. You’re just exaggerating to try and prove your point is the correct one. There are other options, DeWitt just refuses to use them and you won’t budge off of your narrative to admit there are either.

So…these quality free agents ……they are going to have offers from other clubs…most of them currently much more competitive than STL

Why would they pass up those opportunities to sign with Stl?

None of these “sign 3 or 4 top free agents” ever explain the question you’ve asked at least 3 times in this thread alone.

Remember, this club’s biggest FA contract ever was given to Matt Holliday about 17 years ago.

Now that they expect the team to go sign 3 or 4 guys whose contracts will all be higher than Holliday’s? To come to a team that’s 20 under .500 over the past 3 years?

This organization won’t do that. Nor should they at this point.
And the guy who said “that’s Bloom’s job” doesn’t count.

I find it telling....and amusing....that some just want the owner to spend, apparently on any warm body they can find...

or

they seem to think that these "elite" free agents are just sitting by the phone, desperately hoping the the cards call

hello?? they're not

I think bloom is moving in the right direction......and the the time to spend will come..

BDW money spends just as easily as any other owners money…..

Come on man….you’re smarter than that…

It’s not about the money…it’s that given the state of the cards organization who are you going to get to sign there…

If Framber has an offer of 33 mil from the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, and cards…

Where do you think he is not signing?

[Quincy Varnish]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR ALL of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Basically you are just repeating the same roll of the dice the Cardinals made with Goldschmidt-Arenado, hoping to win something before they fall off the table without having the supporting cast now to do so.

Pushing $200MM and still not as good as the Cubs this year, so it’s basically dumping $50MM+/yr for a chance at a wildcard spot. The lineup and rotation are still thin, after the Cardinals inexplicably hand out $400MM in contract value in a shrinking market. I can see it.

[Goldfan]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Well, that would probably do it, but it wouldn’t cost nearly that much and you know it. You’re just exaggerating to try and prove your point is the correct one. There are other options, DeWitt just refuses to use them and you won’t budge off of your narrative to admit there are either.

So…these quality free agents ……they are going to have offers from other clubs…most of them currently much more competitive than STL

Why would they pass up those opportunities to sign with Stl?

None of these “sign 3 or 4 top free agents” ever explain the question you’ve asked at least 3 times in this thread alone.

Remember, this club’s biggest FA contract ever was given to Matt Holliday about 17 years ago.

Now that they expect the team to go sign 3 or 4 guys whose contracts will all be higher than Holliday’s? To come to a team that’s 20 under .500 over the past 3 years?

This organization won’t do that. Nor should they at this point.
And the guy who said “that’s Bloom’s job” doesn’t count.

I find it telling....and amusing....that some just want the owner to spend, apparently on any warm body they can find...

or

they seem to think that these "elite" free agents are just sitting by the phone, desperately hoping the the cards call

hello?? they're not

I think bloom is moving in the right direction......and the the time to spend will come..

BDW money spends just as easily as any other owners money…..

Come on man….you’re smarter than that…

It’s not about the money…it’s that given the state of the cards organization who are you going to get to sign there…

If Framber has an offer of 33 mil from the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, and cards…

Where do you think he is not signing?

I never said to sign the top SP. Sign a#2….trade for a #2

[Quincy Varnish]

BDW money spends just as easily as any other owners money…..

Come on man….you’re smarter than that…

It’s not about the money…it’s that given the state of the cards organization who are you going to get to sign there…

If Framber has an offer of 33 mil from the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, and cards…

Where do you think he is not signing?

It’s about the money.

[Cardinals4Life]

I'll add - the "loser mentality" is, if anything, whining for ownership to give you the pablum of a couple of "stars," a couple of "names" you recognize, even when you should know this team is nowhere good enough to really compete with a couple of more "names."

Settling for being pacified by just having a couple more "names" on the back of jerseys instead of demanding the implementation of a real plan to eventually be able to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Padres, etc. is the "loser mentality." That's really what ownership has been selling fans on for the last several years to get to this point.

You sure seem to think you’ve got it all figured out and us “Whiners” are clueless! Are you really just another account for Melville?
Hope you enjoy the next 3+ years of futility!
In my opinion this team is only 3 or 4 players away from being able to compete. I guess you have no confidence in any of our current players, so to replace the whole team will take several years!

"Only" four $25 million or $30 million AAV players? Only $100 to $120 million a year?

Is that all?

Yes, that is all. Cards can afford to carry some players of this magnitude. We have a team full of YOUR "cost-controlled" young players. You are going to have to pay some pillars.

They can't afford four $25 to $30 million players AND pay for a good enough rest of the roster to support them unless they have even more young, cost controlled players than I project that they need.

They don't have anywhere close to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players to make it work right now.

Having Gorman at -0.2 fWAR, Walker at -1.2 fWAR, Ryan Fernandez, etc. are not contributing, as of now at least, to the depth and quality of young cost controlled players they need.

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

So let's see:
1. We lose the prospect return from not trading Sonny Gray.
2. We lose the money saved for keeping Sonny Gray.
3. We lose prospects from acquiring a pre arb starter.
Donovan can net us this piece.
4. We lose prospects we could've gotten for trading Contreras.
5. We lose money saved for keeping Contreras.
6. We lose the prospect return for Romero.
7. We lose prospects we traded for a pre arb reliever
Who are we trading for?
8. We lose at least 50-60mil in financial flexibility in 2026-2027 and beyond.

Oh, and we are dependent on a rotation featuring a 36 year old Gray, an unproven McGreevy, and Libby who

You have Valdez as your ace, Gray as a #2 (which he really is), a newly acquired #3, Liberatore, and McGreevy.

has yet to show he's a workhorse. And no 6th starter.
Oh, and we are dependent on Gorman, Saggese, Crooks and Scott.

Incorrect. With the addition of Bellinger and Suarez, you AREN'T dependent on Gorman. That's the point. I wouldnt say you are ever dependent on a backup C and UT infielder.

Lovely.

Yeah, so your plan isn't a very good plan unless you think the world is going to end after the 2026 season. You drastically reduce the number of prospects in your system, while adding significantly to the payroll, and the roster (both starters and position players) remains very vulnerable and unproven.

You can be the Angels GM. This is the kind of [shirt] they've done for 20 years...

Sorry that some fans want to actually win and not try and "save" money and collect prospects. The MLB club is there to win, not sell our players for a bunch of unproven kids and save the owner money.

Say what you want, but that team listed would being the playoffs and competing for a title. I'd rather have that than perpetual losing and watching the Memphis Redbirds play their home games in STL.

You get an A for effort.
But an F for a [fork]ing stupid idea.


Collecting prospects is actually very important for this org right now. And saving money today so, when your roster is ready, you can use it tomorrow is a good idea too.

When are you going to learn, guy, this doesn't happen. EVER. The Cardinals don't save money and spend it later. They. DON'T. Do. This. They. WON'T. Do. This.

I understand what you're saying about collecting prospects. I get it. However, I am more interested in Major League Baseball than MiLB. (Although, tbh, there hasn't been much difference the past couple seasons.)

[Cardinals4Life]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR ALL of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Basically you are just repeating the same roll of the dice the Cardinals made with Goldschmidt-Arenado, hoping to win something before they fall off the table without having the supporting cast now to do so.

Pushing $200MM and still not as good as the Cubs this year, so it’s basically dumping $50MM+/yr for a chance at a wildcard spot. The lineup and rotation are still thin, after the Cardinals inexplicably hand out $400MM in contract value in a shrinking market. I can see it.

Not the point QV.
Not saying they are going to do that. Obviously they aren't. Simply saying it could be done and could make us good.

Also Matt's 173M number is NOT pushing 200M. Let's be real.
This team WOULD be a playoff team.

[Cardinals4Life]

Sure they can. Humor me. Give me youe estimated payroll for the following:

Rotation: Valdez, Gray, Acquired P via trade (assume pre-arb), Liberatore, McGreevy.

Position Players: Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Eugenio Suarez, Scott, Burleson, Cody Bellinger, Herrera, Crooks, Saggese, Church, Torres, Gorman

Pen: Phil Maton, Romero, O'Brien, Graceffo, Svanson, Leahy, Kyle Finnegan, another pre-arb guy.

Big $ guys: Valdez, Gray, Bellinger, Suarez, Contreras

This is just an example, but can you give me the payroll for this roster?

I'll hit the major contributors at least.

$ are either actual or est. from FG or Cot's; fWAR est. and from FG models (and I'll give you the highest model proj. fWAR)

Gray - $35 million, 4.0 fWAR
Valdez - $28 million, 3.7 fWAR
Liberatore - $2.5 million, 1.3 fWAR
McGreevy - $800K, 1.6 fWAR

Contreras - $18 million, 1.9 fWAR
Suarez - $20 million, 2.7 fWAR
Bellinger - $27 million, 3.0 fWAR
Herrera - $800K, 3.0 fWAR
Winn - $800K, 3.6 fWAR
Burleson - $2.5 million, 2.2 fWAR
Scott - $800K, 1.3 fWAR
Crooks/Pages - $1.6 million, 2.0 fWAR

Entire bullpen (8) - $20 million (at least, with Maton $5M, Finnegan $7M, Romero $3.5M, etc.), 3.5 fWAR (ML average last year)

So that's $158.2+ million (not to mention ~$15 million sent with Arenado, probably - so really more like $173.2+ million) and 33.8 fWAR without figuring in:

Three bench players (Saggese, Gorman, Torres), Wetherholt, and your unnamed SP acquired from trade.

You need 42 fWAR to be a team with even 90 win talent, so you are 8+ fWAR short. And you probably really want at least 10+ fWAR more (a 92 win talent team) if you are going to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc.

The bench isn't going to give you but 1 or 2, your unnamed SP (if pre-ARB) is likely to be still developing and isn't likely to be more than ~2 fWAR.

So maybe you've got 38 fWAR (an 86 win team) without Wetherholt. And, again, that's based on the most favorable FG model proj. of what fWAR ALL of those guys are going to produce. You need Wetherholt to be an All-Star level player from Day 1 to just get to 90 wins.

And, if he ISN'T an immediate wunderkind, you're stuck with likely declining assets (Valdez, Suarez, Bellinger, etc.) that you're committed to paying A LOT of money to in 2027, 2028, 2029, etc.

Basically you are just repeating the same roll of the dice the Cardinals made with Goldschmidt-Arenado, hoping to win something before they fall off the table without having the supporting cast now to do so.

First of all, thank you for taking the time to research/type all of that. I do appreciate it. Even though we disagree a lot, I appreciate the dialogue!

Okay, so a couple of things.
1.) Those players acquired are just examples, although I do really like some of them.
2.) I didn't have Pages on there, but I won't quibble.
3.) This team is definitely a playoff contender.
4.) You can't just assign WAR to a guy (WAR is an entirely different debate) and that's magically what he produces for you and that's how many wins you get. It doesn't work that way. These guys are ballplayer, not lines on a spreadsheet. I would bet good money that that above roster would be a playoff-caliber team.
5.) Though you may not agree with thise moves (and it appears likely Cards won't either), I think you clearly proved my point that this team CAN be fixed to a strong contending, playoff team with a few moves.
6.) This team would also have major excitement for the fans going forward, which would equal more attendance, which is more revenue.
7.) This plan does nothing to jeopardize the future of the team. You can still keep developing your farm and young guys. This is just competing, while still doing that. Apparently Mozeliak was trying to compete (although that's questionable), but neglecting the internal development. Bloom can surely do both. Any competent President could!
8.) FA guys arent going to magically decline in a couple years. If the young guys don't play complimentary baseball like you think they should good enough in 2026, then you have 2027. And so on. You can always make tweaks to your roster. But you can't be afraid to go get quality players, because they are going to decline. Everyone declines. You just have to be smart about it. The problem with Goldy and Nado was Mo stopped short of finishing out a roster. He thought 2 guys would get it done and he neglected everything else. IMO, you need 3 boppers. (Suarez, Bellinger, and Contreras would suffice.) Then you have a young Herrera, Burleson, and Wetherholt as good sticks. Winn and Scott are your defense-first guys, which is fine.


Anyway, I dont think you and I are as far apart as we think. I think you want to spend money (sometime, maybe???) when you think we have enough young guys, I just want to spend it sooner because I think we have young, complimentary pieces here NOW. No need to keep waiting. (And I'm not convinced Cards will ever spend again.) I also disagree that wins and player performance can be predicted on a spreadsheet in the offseason.

Thanks for the discussion Mmitch.

You're welcome.

What we disagree about is timing. I've stated over and over that they will eventually have to spend back at $170 or $180 million again.

But this is a marathon not a sprint. The Cardinals have to be smart and pick the right time to make their move and win the race. But that time is not right now.

As I've documented elsewhere they need more young talent producing at the ML level before the are ready to go all out with their spending "kick" to be really competitive with the big payroll teams.

Spending now is "kicking" too early in the race and they'll run out of momentum before they get good enough to cross the finish line in 1st in 2028, 2029, 2030.

You can feel that your proposal makes the Cardinals "competitive" in 2026. I've tried to show with available data that what you propose is likely going to make them an 88 to 90 win team, at best. That's likely more "lose in the 1st round of the playoffs to better teams."

Ok, then answer me this on timing. You say wait until 2028, 2029, 2030 before spending. Okay, but by the guys like Burleson, Herrera, Scott, and others are going to have their controlled years wasted. It seems like that will always be the case. Thoughts?

[Quincy Varnish]

Pushing $200MM and still not as good as the Cubs this year, so it’s basically dumping $50MM+/yr for a chance at a wildcard spot. The lineup and rotation are still thin, after the Cardinals inexplicably hand out $400MM in contract value in a shrinking market. I can see it.

Not the point QV.
Not saying they are going to do that. Obviously they aren't. Simply saying it could be done and could make us good.

Also Matt's 173M number is NOT pushing 200M. Let's be real.
This team WOULD be a playoff team.

Matt’s number is low, and if that team miraculously made the playoffs it wouldn’t get far. The St. Louis Cardinals LLC is not in the business of making you happy (e.g. wasting $50MM a year for no apparent reason.)

[Cardinals4Life]

Pushing $200MM and still not as good as the Cubs this year, so it’s basically dumping $50MM+/yr for a chance at a wildcard spot. The lineup and rotation are still thin, after the Cardinals inexplicably hand out $400MM in contract value in a shrinking market. I can see it.

Not the point QV.
Not saying they are going to do that. Obviously they aren't. Simply saying it could be done and could make us good.

Also Matt's 173M number is NOT pushing 200M. Let's be real.
This team WOULD be a playoff team.

Matt’s number is low, and if that team miraculously made the playoffs it wouldn’t get far. The St. Louis Cardinals LLC is not in the business of making you happy (e.g. wasting $50MM a year for no apparent reason.)

They apparently aren't in the business of making many fans happy....or in the business of winning baseball games.

[zuck698]

Pushing $200MM and still not as good as the Cubs this year, so it’s basically dumping $50MM+/yr for a chance at a wildcard spot. The lineup and rotation are still thin, after the Cardinals inexplicably hand out $400MM in contract value in a shrinking market. I can see it.

Not the point QV.
Not saying they are going to do that. Obviously they aren't. Simply saying it could be done and could make us good.

Also Matt's 173M number is NOT pushing 200M. Let's be real.
This team WOULD be a playoff team.

Matt’s number is low, and if that team miraculously made the playoffs it wouldn’t get far. The St. Louis Cardinals LLC is not in the business of making you happy (e.g. wasting $50MM a year for no apparent reason.)

They apparently aren't in the business of making many fans happy....or in the business of winning baseball games.

Bill must really think the fans will be patient and fill the stadium for the next 5 or 6 years until we have enough WAR to compete. Heck the stadium was pretty darn empty last year. I agree with those as to why you can't have an exciting and watchable team while we still develop the minor league system. It takes money, money wisely spent mind you, which doesn't involve depleting our farm system. Heck, trade our current vets for prospects and replace the vets by spending some money on a watchable team. I have never figured out why we can't do both, regardless of how many times its explained that its either one or the other. If everyone believes that we can only concentrate on one aspect at a time, then Mr. Bidwill has achieved his mission and he will need more warehouse space for all of the "Dry Powder" he will be saving! I am not convinced that he would spend the needed amount to be competitive whenever enough WAR is amassed anyway. IMHO