Happy Denkingerversary

[BrummerStealsHome]

There's a nice article on Don Denkinger's daughter on the main site page this morning. Look it up if you have the time.

Memories of that call, how the inning then unfolded, and how it destroyed the team for game 7 stll give me bad feelings, but I have long since lost any animosity towards Denkinger. Sometimes in sport, people falter at critical moments, and it is usually the athletes themselves. Bill Buckner immediately comes to mind. But this time an ump blew an obvious call. Part of sports fandom is dealing with the lows as well as the highs. It can be said that the lows themselves make the highs more rewarding.

One thing that bothered me from the article was the report that the Denkinger home phone rang off the wall until about 5am, including death threats. Anonymous letters soon arrived in the mail involving death threats. The FBI got involved to protect the Denkinger family. What a sad collection of losers is responsible for this. Some were probably infantile adult Cardinals fans while others where gamblers who thought DD was responsible for a losing bet. Regardless, I have no tolerance for this kind of thing.

[redbirdfan51]

My now deceased friend sent a nasty letter to Denkinger after the WS on the blown call.

[ClassicO]

Baseball Reference does a win probability analysis and it shows:
1. Before the call, the Cardinals had an 80% chance of winning the game.
2. The incorrect safe call only lowered their probability to 66%.
3. It was the subsequent string of miscues (Clark drops pop-up; Porter's PB) and more hits that ultimately led to the Game 6 defeat.
4. They lost game 7 (and don't blame that on mental state [nonsense]).

[BrummerStealsHome]

Baseball Reference does a win probability analysis and it shows:
1. Before the call, the Cardinals had an 80% chance of winning the game.
2. The incorrect safe call only lowered their probability to 66%.
3. It was the subsequent string of miscues (Clark drops pop-up; Porter's PB) and more hits that ultimately led to the Game 6 defeat.
4. They lost game 7 (and don't blame that on mental state [nonsense]).

Calling it nonsense is just a refusal to accept reality. With one out and and do one on, I like the chances of Todd Worrell, pitching from the windup instead of the stretch, of nailing down the two final outs.

[Adam2]

My now deceased friend sent a nasty letter to Denkinger after the WS on the blown call.

classy

[ClassicO]

Baseball Reference does a win probability analysis and it shows:
1. Before the call, the Cardinals had an 80% chance of winning the game.
2. The incorrect safe call only lowered their probability to 66%.
3. It was the subsequent string of miscues (Clark drops pop-up; Porter's PB) and more hits that ultimately led to the Game 6 defeat.
4. They lost game 7 (and don't blame that on mental state [nonsense]).

Calling it nonsense is just a refusal to accept reality. With one out and and do one on, I like the chances of Todd Worrell, pitching from the windup instead of the stretch, of nailing down the two final outs.

It's not reality; it's probability. Maybe you can accept that.
We'd have all liked the chances better if the horrendous call hadn't occurred, but a good number of other "events" reduced that probability before and after the bad call, not only including Clark and Porter errors, but the absolute lack of any offense in the last 2 games, and across all 7 games:
1. The team scored only 13 runs over the entire seven-game series - 7 of which were in the first 2 games.
2. In 4 of the losses, they scored 3 total runs.
3. When it counted most, they scored 1 run in Game 6 and 0 runs in Game 7.
So ... I think it was 95% the lack of offense that lost them that WS.

[CCard]

Baseball Reference does a win probability analysis and it shows:
1. Before the call, the Cardinals had an 80% chance of winning the game.
2. The incorrect safe call only lowered their probability to 66%.
3. It was the subsequent string of miscues (Clark drops pop-up; Porter's PB) and more hits that ultimately led to the Game 6 defeat.
4. They lost game 7 (and don't blame that on mental state [nonsense]).

They had not lost a game all year when leading that late. What made it worse was how blatant the call was. Things like that build a momentum of their own. If that is an out, most of what followed wouldn't have transpired most likely. Worrell probably pitches differently with 1st base unoccupied. Pressure is released after that out. An old saying is the most important out of an inning is the first one. Game 7 on the other hand is all on them choking. Make no mistake, the bad call at first was a game changer and most likely caused the Cards to lose that series. Why the other umps (who surely saw the egregious call didn't gather and overturn it is another moment of contentious speculation. Whatever the outcome, Denkinger didn't deserve death threats, I mean it's a game after all.

[sp25]

Baseball Reference does a win probability analysis and it shows:
1. Before the call, the Cardinals had an 80% chance of winning the game.
2. The incorrect safe call only lowered their probability to 66%.
3. It was the subsequent string of miscues (Clark drops pop-up; Porter's PB) and more hits that ultimately led to the Game 6 defeat.
4. They lost game 7 (and don't blame that on mental state [nonsense]).

Calling it nonsense is just a refusal to accept reality. With one out and and do one on, I like the chances of Todd Worrell, pitching from the windup instead of the stretch, of nailing down the two final outs.

It's not reality; it's probability. Maybe you can accept that.
We'd have all liked the chances better if the horrendous call hadn't occurred, but a good number of other "events" reduced that probability before and after the bad call, not only including Clark and Porter errors, but the absolute lack of any offense in the last 2 games, and across all 7 games:
1. The team scored only 13 runs over the entire seven-game series - 7 of which were in the first 2 games.
2. In 4 of the losses, they scored 3 total runs.
3. When it counted most, they scored 1 run in Game 6 and 0 runs in Game 7.
So ... I think it was 95% the lack of offense that lost them that WS.

Two things:

The offense was so bad that if the Cardinals had won, it would have been the worst offensive performance for a winning team in WS history.

I'll always remember what Tony LaRussa told his 2011 team after the historic game 6 victory: "It won't mean a thing if we don't win game 7 tomorrow night."

What did Whitey tell his 1985 team after game 6?

[BrummerStealsHome]

Baseball Reference does a win probability analysis and it shows:
1. Before the call, the Cardinals had an 80% chance of winning the game.
2. The incorrect safe call only lowered their probability to 66%.
3. It was the subsequent string of miscues (Clark drops pop-up; Porter's PB) and more hits that ultimately led to the Game 6 defeat.
4. They lost game 7 (and don't blame that on mental state [nonsense]).

Calling it nonsense is just a refusal to accept reality. With one out and and do one on, I like the chances of Todd Worrell, pitching from the windup instead of the stretch, of nailing down the two final outs.

It's not reality; it's probability. Maybe you can accept that.
We'd have all liked the chances better if the horrendous call hadn't occurred, but a good number of other "events" reduced that probability before and after the bad call, not only including Clark and Porter errors, but the absolute lack of any offense in the last 2 games, and across all 7 games:
1. The team scored only 13 runs over the entire seven-game series - 7 of which were in the first 2 games.
2. In 4 of the losses, they scored 3 total runs.
3. When it counted most, they scored 1 run in Game 6 and 0 runs in Game 7.
So ... I think it was 95% the lack of offense that lost them that WS.

Probability and statistics don't take into account the subjective human elements, but we can . . . and should. After all, it's a game played by real men on real fields, not on a computer. And explaining why they were in the position they were in Game 6 bottom 9 is an entirely different proposition than explaining the events of the half inning itself.

[BrummerStealsHome]

Baseball Reference does a win probability analysis and it shows:
1. Before the call, the Cardinals had an 80% chance of winning the game.
2. The incorrect safe call only lowered their probability to 66%.
3. It was the subsequent string of miscues (Clark drops pop-up; Porter's PB) and more hits that ultimately led to the Game 6 defeat.
4. They lost game 7 (and don't blame that on mental state [nonsense]).

Calling it nonsense is just a refusal to accept reality. With one out and and do one on, I like the chances of Todd Worrell, pitching from the windup instead of the stretch, of nailing down the two final outs.

It's not reality; it's probability. Maybe you can accept that.
We'd have all liked the chances better if the horrendous call hadn't occurred, but a good number of other "events" reduced that probability before and after the bad call, not only including Clark and Porter errors, but the absolute lack of any offense in the last 2 games, and across all 7 games:
1. The team scored only 13 runs over the entire seven-game series - 7 of which were in the first 2 games.
2. In 4 of the losses, they scored 3 total runs.
3. When it counted most, they scored 1 run in Game 6 and 0 runs in Game 7.
So ... I think it was 95% the lack of offense that lost them that WS.

Two things:

The offense was so bad that if the Cardinals had won, it would have been the worst offensive performance for a winning team in WS history.

I'll always remember what Tony LaRussa told his 2011 team after the historic game 6 victory: "It won't mean a thing if we don't win game 7 tomorrow night."

What did Whitey tell his 1985 team after game 6?

It's in his book, White Rat. It's a good read.

[ClassicO]

My friends in KC remind me of the bad call on Frank White stealing 2b in the 4th inning of Game 6 as karma.
White slid into second base ahead of the throw, but was called out by the umpire on the tag by Cardinals shortstop Ozzie Smith. Replays later confirmed that White had beaten the tag. Pat Sheridan then hit a single on which White almost certainly would have scored.

PS - Denkinger kicked whitey out of Game 7 at 10-0. Whitey yelled at him and Denkinger said “Well, if you guys weren’t hitting .120, we wouldn’t be here.” Not a bad reply.

[Rosie's Rule]

Brummer is 100% correct.
1) Worrell was a completely different pitcher from the wind up vs the stretch that season- full confident in the wind up vs tentative and lacking command from the stretch.
2) Worrell to no surprise was also much more effective when he got the lead off hitter out.

Doesn’t matter how poorly the Cards hit or Clark’s drop ball - the Cards get the call they have another WS win.

The call still hurts- if the call was made today it would be reversed and the Royals would have 1 out and a quiet crowd with no one on- it was the break they needed.

[MIDMOBIRDTWO]

My now deceased friend sent a nasty letter to Denkinger after the WS on the blown call.

I have a now deceased friend who waited till November and drove to Iowa to Denkinger's home. He went up, knocked on the door and Denkinger answered. He asked him "how could you make that call". Then got in his vehicle and drove home, about 150 miles. He felt he had to get it out of his system.

[Gob]

Probably would have won with the correct call. Probably should’ve won in spite of it. And zero excuse for game 7.

[11WSChamps]

Baseball Reference does a win probability analysis and it shows:
1. Before the call, the Cardinals had an 80% chance of winning the game.
2. The incorrect safe call only lowered their probability to 66%.
3. It was the subsequent string of miscues (Clark drops pop-up; Porter's PB) and more hits that ultimately led to the Game 6 defeat.
4. They lost game 7 (and don't blame that on mental state [nonsense]).

Calling it nonsense is just a refusal to accept reality. With one out and and do one on, I like the chances of Todd Worrell, pitching from the windup instead of the stretch, of nailing down the two final outs.

Exactly.

It changed the whole complexion of the inning and the momentum factor is real especially on the road.

[icon]

People still blaming Denkinger for that WS? The Cardinals blew it. Period.