Going to WAR...for Classic0

[Ozziesfan41]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

Numbers accumulated while being a DH should not count in calculating WAR. I would say the same regarding career totals. DH has a much lower risk of injury because he sits on the bench for the entire game except for the 4 or 5 times he walks to the batters box. He doesn't need to own a glove. He isn't a baseball player. He is a batter.

You have to score runs to win baseball games. Why would you NOT count an offensive player's offensive contributions?

That's absurd.

The Cardinals catcher is barely above the Mendoza line. He plays because Herrera can't catch. WAR doesn't factor the drag on the offense from Herrera's inability to play a position.

That’s the fault of the front office, not Herrera.

Misdirected Hostility

Agree they had to have known in the minors his arm wasn’t going to play in the majors if they didn’t they are even more incompetent than I thought so given they had to have recognized his arm was too weak to stick they should have started working him in the outfield instead they went with let’s hope and pray his arm will somehow work out lol it’s crazy how terrible they were

[Goldfan]

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

How many times do you see a ball caught at the edge of a fielder's range? Fairly often. How often do you see a slow OF just barely not get to a ball that you think should have been caught, or maybe should have been caught? A fair amount over 162 games. One of those a week is 26 XBHs a season that a defender is giving back to the other team, to use an extreme example. Bichette caught (on a rate basis) 15-30 fewer balls than he himself did in his age 33 and 34 seasons. Is it crazy to think at age 35 he's slowing down and not getting to as many balls anymore? And that most of those balls are going for at least a single if not a double in Coors?

1.86 CH/game is 301 over the course of a season. Giving away 10-20 could easily be 15-30 "total bases" given back.

bWAR does not weight defense much more heavily than fWAR, I believe they both account for 7% of total WAR (14% of run suppression, the other 86% going to pitchers). UZR and DRS are both zero sum stats. If one player is well above average at a position another player, or several players, have to be (well) below average to balance the scales (kind of like a perfectly balanced see saw). I'm saying DRS has more outliers (on both ends of the spectrum) whereas UZR tends to have more players closer to the middle of the seesaw to balance things out. I'm not even saying DRS (and hence bWAR) is wrong, I'm just saying that's what I see in the metrics and thus we see wider ranges of DRS and bWAR than we do in UZR and fWAR, typically.

Excellent stuff. You're WAY over the capacity of the complainers. Melville still uses rudimentary stats -- or mostly none, just the same blowhard template.

“Defensive stats have "error bars" in their results (larger ones than offensive stats), and take much longer to stabilize so we sometimes get weird outliers for a single season.”
I believe this is what I’ve been debating for 16 pg…………….
And Remember RBI says bWAR skews more to D in their WAR ratings and he only uses fWAR…….
So acting like there isn’t a bias, which is exactly what we’ve been debating, is comical…..

As I’ve been writing for probably half of the 17pgs theres a bias in the defensive equations that then cascade through these manipulated analytics
For AOF, RBI, Quinc, Classic
https://www.purplerow.com/2020/1/23/209 ... oors-field

Not speaking to RBI when I say fellas……sometimes stop with arrogance and gotcha and use your common sense. Enjoy

AOF, are you ghosting me??

[An Old Friend]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

Numbers accumulated while being a DH should not count in calculating WAR. I would say the same regarding career totals. DH has a much lower risk of injury because he sits on the bench for the entire game except for the 4 or 5 times he walks to the batters box. He doesn't need to own a glove. He isn't a baseball player. He is a batter.

You have to score runs to win baseball games. Why would you NOT count an offensive player's offensive contributions?

That's absurd.

The Cardinals catcher is barely above the Mendoza line. He plays because Herrera can't catch. WAR doesn't factor the drag on the offense from Herrera's inability to play a position.

That’s the fault of the front office, not Herrera.

Misdirected Hostility

No hostility. I don't care enough to get emotional about it. Just stating the obvious flaw with WAR.

Trying to push negative value from one player onto another is not a flaw of the model.

Misdirected Hostility is a song title

My point is that you wanting to put some sort of blame on/ negative value on Herrera for Pages’ shortcomings is misguided.

[An Old Friend]

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

How many times do you see a ball caught at the edge of a fielder's range? Fairly often. How often do you see a slow OF just barely not get to a ball that you think should have been caught, or maybe should have been caught? A fair amount over 162 games. One of those a week is 26 XBHs a season that a defender is giving back to the other team, to use an extreme example. Bichette caught (on a rate basis) 15-30 fewer balls than he himself did in his age 33 and 34 seasons. Is it crazy to think at age 35 he's slowing down and not getting to as many balls anymore? And that most of those balls are going for at least a single if not a double in Coors?

1.86 CH/game is 301 over the course of a season. Giving away 10-20 could easily be 15-30 "total bases" given back.

bWAR does not weight defense much more heavily than fWAR, I believe they both account for 7% of total WAR (14% of run suppression, the other 86% going to pitchers). UZR and DRS are both zero sum stats. If one player is well above average at a position another player, or several players, have to be (well) below average to balance the scales (kind of like a perfectly balanced see saw). I'm saying DRS has more outliers (on both ends of the spectrum) whereas UZR tends to have more players closer to the middle of the seesaw to balance things out. I'm not even saying DRS (and hence bWAR) is wrong, I'm just saying that's what I see in the metrics and thus we see wider ranges of DRS and bWAR than we do in UZR and fWAR, typically.

Excellent stuff. You're WAY over the capacity of the complainers. Melville still uses rudimentary stats -- or mostly none, just the same blowhard template.

“Defensive stats have "error bars" in their results (larger ones than offensive stats), and take much longer to stabilize so we sometimes get weird outliers for a single season.”
I believe this is what I’ve been debating for 16 pg…………….
And Remember RBI says bWAR skews more to D in their WAR ratings and he only uses fWAR…….
So acting like there isn’t a bias, which is exactly what we’ve been debating, is comical…..

As I’ve been writing for probably half of the 17pgs theres a bias in the defensive equations that then cascade through these manipulated analytics
For AOF, RBI, Quinc, Classic
https://www.purplerow.com/2020/1/23/209 ... oors-field

Not speaking to RBI when I say fellas……sometimes stop with arrogance and gotcha and use your common sense. Enjoy

AOF, are you ghosting me??

I went golfing after work.

So NOW you want to acknowledge the Coors effect? Cool.

And NOW you’re citing an article that talks about fWAR the whole time? Cool, cause I thought you didn’t like WAR

And your article’s premise says UZR underrates Rockies’ outfielders by about half a win. Again, cool… so Bichette was only a negative 1.5 or so instead of a negative 2

I appreciate that you decided to share an article that clearly finds value in evaluating players by fWAR in your battle against WAR. It’s beautiful, honestly.

[rbirules]

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

How many times do you see a ball caught at the edge of a fielder's range? Fairly often. How often do you see a slow OF just barely not get to a ball that you think should have been caught, or maybe should have been caught? A fair amount over 162 games. One of those a week is 26 XBHs a season that a defender is giving back to the other team, to use an extreme example. Bichette caught (on a rate basis) 15-30 fewer balls than he himself did in his age 33 and 34 seasons. Is it crazy to think at age 35 he's slowing down and not getting to as many balls anymore? And that most of those balls are going for at least a single if not a double in Coors?

1.86 CH/game is 301 over the course of a season. Giving away 10-20 could easily be 15-30 "total bases" given back.

bWAR does not weight defense much more heavily than fWAR, I believe they both account for 7% of total WAR (14% of run suppression, the other 86% going to pitchers). UZR and DRS are both zero sum stats. If one player is well above average at a position another player, or several players, have to be (well) below average to balance the scales (kind of like a perfectly balanced see saw). I'm saying DRS has more outliers (on both ends of the spectrum) whereas UZR tends to have more players closer to the middle of the seesaw to balance things out. I'm not even saying DRS (and hence bWAR) is wrong, I'm just saying that's what I see in the metrics and thus we see wider ranges of DRS and bWAR than we do in UZR and fWAR, typically.

Excellent stuff. You're WAY over the capacity of the complainers. Melville still uses rudimentary stats -- or mostly none, just the same blowhard template.

“Defensive stats have "error bars" in their results (larger ones than offensive stats), and take much longer to stabilize so we sometimes get weird outliers for a single season.”
I believe this is what I’ve been debating for 16 pg…………….
And Remember RBI says bWAR skews more to D in their WAR ratings and he only uses fWAR…….
So acting like there isn’t a bias, which is exactly what we’ve been debating, is comical…..

As I’ve been writing for probably half of the 17pgs theres a bias in the defensive equations that then cascade through these manipulated analytics
For AOF, RBI, Quinc, Classic
https://www.purplerow.com/2020/1/23/209 ... oors-field

Not speaking to RBI when I say fellas……sometimes stop with arrogance and gotcha and use your common sense. Enjoy

AOF, are you ghosting me??

I went golfing after work.

So NOW you want to acknowledge the Coors effect? Cool.

And NOW you’re citing an article that talks about fWAR the whole time? Cool, cause I thought you didn’t like WAR

And your article’s premise says UZR underrates Rockies’ outfielders by about half a win. Again, cool… so Bichette was only a negative 1.5 or so instead of a negative 2

I appreciate that you decided to share an article that clearly finds value in evaluating players by fWAR in your battle against WAR. It’s beautiful, honestly.

UZR wasn't created until 2002 so it doesn't impact Bichette's fWAR. I'm not saying this phenomenon didn't impact the defensive metrics used then as well. Just adding context.

[Goldfan]

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

How many times do you see a ball caught at the edge of a fielder's range? Fairly often. How often do you see a slow OF just barely not get to a ball that you think should have been caught, or maybe should have been caught? A fair amount over 162 games. One of those a week is 26 XBHs a season that a defender is giving back to the other team, to use an extreme example. Bichette caught (on a rate basis) 15-30 fewer balls than he himself did in his age 33 and 34 seasons. Is it crazy to think at age 35 he's slowing down and not getting to as many balls anymore? And that most of those balls are going for at least a single if not a double in Coors?

1.86 CH/game is 301 over the course of a season. Giving away 10-20 could easily be 15-30 "total bases" given back.

bWAR does not weight defense much more heavily than fWAR, I believe they both account for 7% of total WAR (14% of run suppression, the other 86% going to pitchers). UZR and DRS are both zero sum stats. If one player is well above average at a position another player, or several players, have to be (well) below average to balance the scales (kind of like a perfectly balanced see saw). I'm saying DRS has more outliers (on both ends of the spectrum) whereas UZR tends to have more players closer to the middle of the seesaw to balance things out. I'm not even saying DRS (and hence bWAR) is wrong, I'm just saying that's what I see in the metrics and thus we see wider ranges of DRS and bWAR than we do in UZR and fWAR, typically.

Excellent stuff. You're WAY over the capacity of the complainers. Melville still uses rudimentary stats -- or mostly none, just the same blowhard template.

“Defensive stats have "error bars" in their results (larger ones than offensive stats), and take much longer to stabilize so we sometimes get weird outliers for a single season.”
I believe this is what I’ve been debating for 16 pg…………….
And Remember RBI says bWAR skews more to D in their WAR ratings and he only uses fWAR…….
So acting like there isn’t a bias, which is exactly what we’ve been debating, is comical…..

As I’ve been writing for probably half of the 17pgs theres a bias in the defensive equations that then cascade through these manipulated analytics
For AOF, RBI, Quinc, Classic
https://www.purplerow.com/2020/1/23/209 ... oors-field

Not speaking to RBI when I say fellas……sometimes stop with arrogance and gotcha and use your common sense. Enjoy

AOF, are you ghosting me??

I went golfing after work.

So NOW you want to acknowledge the Coors effect? Cool.

And NOW you’re citing an article that talks about fWAR the whole time? Cool, cause I thought you didn’t like WAR

And your article’s premise says UZR underrates Rockies’ outfielders by about half a win. Again, cool… so Bichette was only a negative 1.5 or so instead of a negative 2

I appreciate that you decided to share an article that clearly finds value in evaluating players by fWAR in your battle against WAR. It’s beautiful, honestly.

WAR is more like the field of Economics or Meteorology rather than Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing

[Bully4you]

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

How many times do you see a ball caught at the edge of a fielder's range? Fairly often. How often do you see a slow OF just barely not get to a ball that you think should have been caught, or maybe should have been caught? A fair amount over 162 games. One of those a week is 26 XBHs a season that a defender is giving back to the other team, to use an extreme example. Bichette caught (on a rate basis) 15-30 fewer balls than he himself did in his age 33 and 34 seasons. Is it crazy to think at age 35 he's slowing down and not getting to as many balls anymore? And that most of those balls are going for at least a single if not a double in Coors?

1.86 CH/game is 301 over the course of a season. Giving away 10-20 could easily be 15-30 "total bases" given back.

bWAR does not weight defense much more heavily than fWAR, I believe they both account for 7% of total WAR (14% of run suppression, the other 86% going to pitchers). UZR and DRS are both zero sum stats. If one player is well above average at a position another player, or several players, have to be (well) below average to balance the scales (kind of like a perfectly balanced see saw). I'm saying DRS has more outliers (on both ends of the spectrum) whereas UZR tends to have more players closer to the middle of the seesaw to balance things out. I'm not even saying DRS (and hence bWAR) is wrong, I'm just saying that's what I see in the metrics and thus we see wider ranges of DRS and bWAR than we do in UZR and fWAR, typically.

Excellent stuff. You're WAY over the capacity of the complainers. Melville still uses rudimentary stats -- or mostly none, just the same blowhard template.

“Defensive stats have "error bars" in their results (larger ones than offensive stats), and take much longer to stabilize so we sometimes get weird outliers for a single season.”
I believe this is what I’ve been debating for 16 pg…………….
And Remember RBI says bWAR skews more to D in their WAR ratings and he only uses fWAR…….
So acting like there isn’t a bias, which is exactly what we’ve been debating, is comical…..

As I’ve been writing for probably half of the 17pgs theres a bias in the defensive equations that then cascade through these manipulated analytics
For AOF, RBI, Quinc, Classic
https://www.purplerow.com/2020/1/23/209 ... oors-field

Not speaking to RBI when I say fellas……sometimes stop with arrogance and gotcha and use your common sense. Enjoy

AOF, are you ghosting me??

I went golfing after work.

So NOW you want to acknowledge the Coors effect? Cool.

And NOW you’re citing an article that talks about fWAR the whole time? Cool, cause I thought you didn’t like WAR

And your article’s premise says UZR underrates Rockies’ outfielders by about half a win. Again, cool… so Bichette was only a negative 1.5 or so instead of a negative 2

I appreciate that you decided to share an article that clearly finds value in evaluating players by fWAR in your battle against WAR. It’s beautiful, honestly.

WAR is more like the field of Economics or Meteorology rather than Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing

But it does have some value, does it not?
I mean, don't use it exclusively, but in conjunction with other stats.

[Goldfan]

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

How many times do you see a ball caught at the edge of a fielder's range? Fairly often. How often do you see a slow OF just barely not get to a ball that you think should have been caught, or maybe should have been caught? A fair amount over 162 games. One of those a week is 26 XBHs a season that a defender is giving back to the other team, to use an extreme example. Bichette caught (on a rate basis) 15-30 fewer balls than he himself did in his age 33 and 34 seasons. Is it crazy to think at age 35 he's slowing down and not getting to as many balls anymore? And that most of those balls are going for at least a single if not a double in Coors?

1.86 CH/game is 301 over the course of a season. Giving away 10-20 could easily be 15-30 "total bases" given back.

bWAR does not weight defense much more heavily than fWAR, I believe they both account for 7% of total WAR (14% of run suppression, the other 86% going to pitchers). UZR and DRS are both zero sum stats. If one player is well above average at a position another player, or several players, have to be (well) below average to balance the scales (kind of like a perfectly balanced see saw). I'm saying DRS has more outliers (on both ends of the spectrum) whereas UZR tends to have more players closer to the middle of the seesaw to balance things out. I'm not even saying DRS (and hence bWAR) is wrong, I'm just saying that's what I see in the metrics and thus we see wider ranges of DRS and bWAR than we do in UZR and fWAR, typically.

Excellent stuff. You're WAY over the capacity of the complainers. Melville still uses rudimentary stats -- or mostly none, just the same blowhard template.

“Defensive stats have "error bars" in their results (larger ones than offensive stats), and take much longer to stabilize so we sometimes get weird outliers for a single season.”
I believe this is what I’ve been debating for 16 pg…………….
And Remember RBI says bWAR skews more to D in their WAR ratings and he only uses fWAR…….
So acting like there isn’t a bias, which is exactly what we’ve been debating, is comical…..

As I’ve been writing for probably half of the 17pgs theres a bias in the defensive equations that then cascade through these manipulated analytics
For AOF, RBI, Quinc, Classic
https://www.purplerow.com/2020/1/23/209 ... oors-field

Not speaking to RBI when I say fellas……sometimes stop with arrogance and gotcha and use your common sense. Enjoy

AOF, are you ghosting me??

I went golfing after work.

So NOW you want to acknowledge the Coors effect? Cool.

And NOW you’re citing an article that talks about fWAR the whole time? Cool, cause I thought you didn’t like WAR

And your article’s premise says UZR underrates Rockies’ outfielders by about half a win. Again, cool… so Bichette was only a negative 1.5 or so instead of a negative 2

I appreciate that you decided to share an article that clearly finds value in evaluating players by fWAR in your battle against WAR. It’s beautiful, honestly.

WAR is more like the field of Economics or Meteorology rather than Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing

But it does have some value, does it not?
I mean, don't use it exclusively, but in conjunction with other stats.

2015 Carp v Heyward
FWAR 5.6 v 5.3
BWAR 7 v 4.8

Deep dive into Defensive ratings at Coors field
OVERALL devaluing of ALL Rockies OFers which then inputs to WAR equations.
Bad data corrupts everything thereafter and when its multiplied of divided over and over you have worthless output

[An Old Friend]

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

How many times do you see a ball caught at the edge of a fielder's range? Fairly often. How often do you see a slow OF just barely not get to a ball that you think should have been caught, or maybe should have been caught? A fair amount over 162 games. One of those a week is 26 XBHs a season that a defender is giving back to the other team, to use an extreme example. Bichette caught (on a rate basis) 15-30 fewer balls than he himself did in his age 33 and 34 seasons. Is it crazy to think at age 35 he's slowing down and not getting to as many balls anymore? And that most of those balls are going for at least a single if not a double in Coors?

1.86 CH/game is 301 over the course of a season. Giving away 10-20 could easily be 15-30 "total bases" given back.

bWAR does not weight defense much more heavily than fWAR, I believe they both account for 7% of total WAR (14% of run suppression, the other 86% going to pitchers). UZR and DRS are both zero sum stats. If one player is well above average at a position another player, or several players, have to be (well) below average to balance the scales (kind of like a perfectly balanced see saw). I'm saying DRS has more outliers (on both ends of the spectrum) whereas UZR tends to have more players closer to the middle of the seesaw to balance things out. I'm not even saying DRS (and hence bWAR) is wrong, I'm just saying that's what I see in the metrics and thus we see wider ranges of DRS and bWAR than we do in UZR and fWAR, typically.

Excellent stuff. You're WAY over the capacity of the complainers. Melville still uses rudimentary stats -- or mostly none, just the same blowhard template.

“Defensive stats have "error bars" in their results (larger ones than offensive stats), and take much longer to stabilize so we sometimes get weird outliers for a single season.”
I believe this is what I’ve been debating for 16 pg…………….
And Remember RBI says bWAR skews more to D in their WAR ratings and he only uses fWAR…….
So acting like there isn’t a bias, which is exactly what we’ve been debating, is comical…..

As I’ve been writing for probably half of the 17pgs theres a bias in the defensive equations that then cascade through these manipulated analytics
For AOF, RBI, Quinc, Classic
https://www.purplerow.com/2020/1/23/209 ... oors-field

Not speaking to RBI when I say fellas……sometimes stop with arrogance and gotcha and use your common sense. Enjoy

AOF, are you ghosting me??

I went golfing after work.

So NOW you want to acknowledge the Coors effect? Cool.

And NOW you’re citing an article that talks about fWAR the whole time? Cool, cause I thought you didn’t like WAR

And your article’s premise says UZR underrates Rockies’ outfielders by about half a win. Again, cool… so Bichette was only a negative 1.5 or so instead of a negative 2

I appreciate that you decided to share an article that clearly finds value in evaluating players by fWAR in your battle against WAR. It’s beautiful, honestly.

WAR is more like the field of Economics or Meteorology rather than Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing

But it does have some value, does it not?
I mean, don't use it exclusively, but in conjunction with other stats.

He knows it does, it’s just his pride standing in the way of him being honest at this point.

[Goldfan]

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

How many times do you see a ball caught at the edge of a fielder's range? Fairly often. How often do you see a slow OF just barely not get to a ball that you think should have been caught, or maybe should have been caught? A fair amount over 162 games. One of those a week is 26 XBHs a season that a defender is giving back to the other team, to use an extreme example. Bichette caught (on a rate basis) 15-30 fewer balls than he himself did in his age 33 and 34 seasons. Is it crazy to think at age 35 he's slowing down and not getting to as many balls anymore? And that most of those balls are going for at least a single if not a double in Coors?

1.86 CH/game is 301 over the course of a season. Giving away 10-20 could easily be 15-30 "total bases" given back.

bWAR does not weight defense much more heavily than fWAR, I believe they both account for 7% of total WAR (14% of run suppression, the other 86% going to pitchers). UZR and DRS are both zero sum stats. If one player is well above average at a position another player, or several players, have to be (well) below average to balance the scales (kind of like a perfectly balanced see saw). I'm saying DRS has more outliers (on both ends of the spectrum) whereas UZR tends to have more players closer to the middle of the seesaw to balance things out. I'm not even saying DRS (and hence bWAR) is wrong, I'm just saying that's what I see in the metrics and thus we see wider ranges of DRS and bWAR than we do in UZR and fWAR, typically.

Excellent stuff. You're WAY over the capacity of the complainers. Melville still uses rudimentary stats -- or mostly none, just the same blowhard template.

“Defensive stats have "error bars" in their results (larger ones than offensive stats), and take much longer to stabilize so we sometimes get weird outliers for a single season.”
I believe this is what I’ve been debating for 16 pg…………….
And Remember RBI says bWAR skews more to D in their WAR ratings and he only uses fWAR…….
So acting like there isn’t a bias, which is exactly what we’ve been debating, is comical…..

As I’ve been writing for probably half of the 17pgs theres a bias in the defensive equations that then cascade through these manipulated analytics
For AOF, RBI, Quinc, Classic
https://www.purplerow.com/2020/1/23/209 ... oors-field

Not speaking to RBI when I say fellas……sometimes stop with arrogance and gotcha and use your common sense. Enjoy

AOF, are you ghosting me??

I went golfing after work.

So NOW you want to acknowledge the Coors effect? Cool.

And NOW you’re citing an article that talks about fWAR the whole time? Cool, cause I thought you didn’t like WAR

And your article’s premise says UZR underrates Rockies’ outfielders by about half a win. Again, cool… so Bichette was only a negative 1.5 or so instead of a negative 2

I appreciate that you decided to share an article that clearly finds value in evaluating players by fWAR in your battle against WAR. It’s beautiful, honestly.

WAR is more like the field of Economics or Meteorology rather than Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing

But it does have some value, does it not?
I mean, don't use it exclusively, but in conjunction with other stats.

He knows it does, it’s just his pride standing in the way of him being honest at this point.

As Economics and Meteorology do….or you look outside to see if its raining and check your Bank account/investments….

[Bully4you]

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

How many times do you see a ball caught at the edge of a fielder's range? Fairly often. How often do you see a slow OF just barely not get to a ball that you think should have been caught, or maybe should have been caught? A fair amount over 162 games. One of those a week is 26 XBHs a season that a defender is giving back to the other team, to use an extreme example. Bichette caught (on a rate basis) 15-30 fewer balls than he himself did in his age 33 and 34 seasons. Is it crazy to think at age 35 he's slowing down and not getting to as many balls anymore? And that most of those balls are going for at least a single if not a double in Coors?

1.86 CH/game is 301 over the course of a season. Giving away 10-20 could easily be 15-30 "total bases" given back.

bWAR does not weight defense much more heavily than fWAR, I believe they both account for 7% of total WAR (14% of run suppression, the other 86% going to pitchers). UZR and DRS are both zero sum stats. If one player is well above average at a position another player, or several players, have to be (well) below average to balance the scales (kind of like a perfectly balanced see saw). I'm saying DRS has more outliers (on both ends of the spectrum) whereas UZR tends to have more players closer to the middle of the seesaw to balance things out. I'm not even saying DRS (and hence bWAR) is wrong, I'm just saying that's what I see in the metrics and thus we see wider ranges of DRS and bWAR than we do in UZR and fWAR, typically.

Excellent stuff. You're WAY over the capacity of the complainers. Melville still uses rudimentary stats -- or mostly none, just the same blowhard template.

“Defensive stats have "error bars" in their results (larger ones than offensive stats), and take much longer to stabilize so we sometimes get weird outliers for a single season.”
I believe this is what I’ve been debating for 16 pg…………….
And Remember RBI says bWAR skews more to D in their WAR ratings and he only uses fWAR…….
So acting like there isn’t a bias, which is exactly what we’ve been debating, is comical…..

As I’ve been writing for probably half of the 17pgs theres a bias in the defensive equations that then cascade through these manipulated analytics
For AOF, RBI, Quinc, Classic
https://www.purplerow.com/2020/1/23/209 ... oors-field

Not speaking to RBI when I say fellas……sometimes stop with arrogance and gotcha and use your common sense. Enjoy

AOF, are you ghosting me??

I went golfing after work.

So NOW you want to acknowledge the Coors effect? Cool.

And NOW you’re citing an article that talks about fWAR the whole time? Cool, cause I thought you didn’t like WAR

And your article’s premise says UZR underrates Rockies’ outfielders by about half a win. Again, cool… so Bichette was only a negative 1.5 or so instead of a negative 2

I appreciate that you decided to share an article that clearly finds value in evaluating players by fWAR in your battle against WAR. It’s beautiful, honestly.

WAR is more like the field of Economics or Meteorology rather than Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing

But it does have some value, does it not?
I mean, don't use it exclusively, but in conjunction with other stats.

He knows it does, it’s just his pride standing in the way of him being honest at this point.

It's not perfect, but it's certainly useful.
I like the stat.
I call it a stat.
Yeah, not sure why the opposition.

[An Old Friend]

WAR is more like the field of Economics or Meteorology rather than Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing

But it does have some value, does it not?
I mean, don't use it exclusively, but in conjunction with other stats.

He knows it does, it’s just his pride standing in the way of him being honest at this point.

As Economics and Meteorology do….or you look outside to see if its raining and check your Bank account/investments….

If I need to know what the weather is going to be hours and / or days in advance, stepping outside to look at the sky doesn’t exactly give me enough information to make informed decisions, just like looking at a player’s HR and RBI doesn’t tell you that much about their overall abilities as a baseball player.

[ScotchMIrish]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

Numbers accumulated while being a DH should not count in calculating WAR. I would say the same regarding career totals. DH has a much lower risk of injury because he sits on the bench for the entire game except for the 4 or 5 times he walks to the batters box. He doesn't need to own a glove. He isn't a baseball player. He is a batter.

You have to score runs to win baseball games. Why would you NOT count an offensive player's offensive contributions?

That's absurd.

The Cardinals catcher is barely above the Mendoza line. He plays because Herrera can't catch. WAR doesn't factor the drag on the offense from Herrera's inability to play a position.

That’s the fault of the front office, not Herrera.

Misdirected Hostility

No hostility. I don't care enough to get emotional about it. Just stating the obvious flaw with WAR.

Trying to push negative value from one player onto another is not a flaw of the model.

Misdirected Hostility is a song title

My point is that you wanting to put some sort of blame on/ negative value on Herrera for Pages’ shortcomings is misguided.

It's valid. Without the DH Herrera would be catching to the detriment of the team or he would be on the bench waiting to pinch hit. Major flaw with WAR and why DH numbers should not count toward WAR.

[An Old Friend]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

Numbers accumulated while being a DH should not count in calculating WAR. I would say the same regarding career totals. DH has a much lower risk of injury because he sits on the bench for the entire game except for the 4 or 5 times he walks to the batters box. He doesn't need to own a glove. He isn't a baseball player. He is a batter.

You have to score runs to win baseball games. Why would you NOT count an offensive player's offensive contributions?

That's absurd.

The Cardinals catcher is barely above the Mendoza line. He plays because Herrera can't catch. WAR doesn't factor the drag on the offense from Herrera's inability to play a position.

That’s the fault of the front office, not Herrera.

Misdirected Hostility

No hostility. I don't care enough to get emotional about it. Just stating the obvious flaw with WAR.

Trying to push negative value from one player onto another is not a flaw of the model.

Misdirected Hostility is a song title

My point is that you wanting to put some sort of blame on/ negative value on Herrera for Pages’ shortcomings is misguided.

It's valid. Without the DH Herrera would be catching to the detriment of the team or he would be on the bench waiting to pinch hit. Major flaw with WAR and why DH numbers should not count toward WAR.

So Shohei Ohtani is hurting the Dodgers in what way? I suppose you vehemently disagree with his accolades?

[renostl]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

Numbers accumulated while being a DH should not count in calculating WAR. I would say the same regarding career totals. DH has a much lower risk of injury because he sits on the bench for the entire game except for the 4 or 5 times he walks to the batters box. He doesn't need to own a glove. He isn't a baseball player. He is a batter.

You have to score runs to win baseball games. Why would you NOT count an offensive player's offensive contributions?

That's absurd.

The Cardinals catcher is barely above the Mendoza line. He plays because Herrera can't catch. WAR doesn't factor the drag on the offense from Herrera's inability to play a position.

That’s the fault of the front office, not Herrera.

Misdirected Hostility

No hostility. I don't care enough to get emotional about it. Just stating the obvious flaw with WAR.

Trying to push negative value from one player onto another is not a flaw of the model.

Misdirected Hostility is a song title

My point is that you wanting to put some sort of blame on/ negative value on Herrera for Pages’ shortcomings is misguided.

It's valid. Without the DH Herrera would be catching to the detriment of the team or he would be on the bench waiting to pinch hit. Major flaw with WAR and why DH numbers should not count toward WAR.

It is a world that doesn't exist.
In that world, who's to say that it isn't Pages who is receiving the benefit. An OPS of .594
doesn't play unless your D is golden.

[Melville]

From just one of many WAR definitions:
"...We estimate...for seasons in which we lack...data..."
"...we differentiate between infield singles and outfield singles..." (only in some seasons and not for others)
"...we differentiate between strikeouts and other outs..."
"...We include...for seasons that such data is available. For other years, we estimate..."
"...So everyone is assumed to..."
"...Fielding measures obviously have a lot of controversy surrounding them..."
"...data as is available is used for each season..."
"...For seasons where observational data is not available" we rely on "estimating player defense..."
"...which estimates the number of runs saved..."
"...leads to more extreme fielding runs estimates..."
"...we can estimate the average differences..."
"...these values will vary ..."
"... Previously this was weighted by games played....Perhaps we should weight it by defensive innings, but this is a reasonable proxy..."
"...we set replacement level..." (while noting that level is subjectively changed from time to time)
"...We assign 41% to the pitchers and 59% to the position players..." (with no explanation as to why or how credit for "wins" is assigned)
These are just handful of the open admission of using estimates, assumptions, guesses, inconsistencies, variances, and complete subjectivity.
In looking at the definition of various WAR models, there are hundreds of such admissions readily available.
Is WAR a stat?
By definition, it is not and never can be.
It is reliable, consistent, and accurate?
According to its creators, no.
Their words, not mine.
It is, however, an interesting and amusing parlor game.
As we have seen here.