Going to WAR...for Classic0

[An Old Friend]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

RBI dig into this Bichette discussion. He had 1.86CH per GAME and somehow his D negates 321 TB according to WAR. And this seems logical?

As others have said, it's not the 321 TBs that needs to be negated, it's a fraction of them. The Coors effect (i.e. adjusting to a league average environment) takes away a lot of them. That should be self explanatory I would think.

Next replacement level isn't 0 TB, it's a number well north of there. Dave Martinez had 0.1 fWAR that year. He was also an OF. His league adjusted batting was a little worse than Bichette's (93 wRC+ vs. 100 for Bichette). Martinez had 199 TB, he also had 65 fewer PAs, or about 10% less playing time than Bichette, so his TBs would be closer to 220 if he had the same playing time.

So that gap is now 100 TB due to park factors and bases given up defensively.

I found another near replacement level player that had a wRC+ closer to Bichette's 100 (Greg Norton, 101 wRC+ played for the White Sox). His total bases if you give him the same number of ABs as Bichette would be 251, or 70 less than Bichette. So was Coors responsible for 70 of those total bases? That doesn't seem crazy to me.

Bichette made 13 errors in 1999. For an OF how many bases do you think an average error is worth? Some might only be one, but I'd guess a fair number are two bases, or letting a runner advance an extra base or two with a throwing error. 1.5 bases per error gives us 20 TBs from that alone, and those are on balls he got to and could make a play on. Balls an OF doesn't even get to usually end up as extra base hits.

Bichette made 239 Putouts in 1233 innings in 1999. In 1998 he made 288 Putouts in 1316 innings, or a rate of 269 in 1233 innings. In 1997 he made 225 Putouts in 1090 innings, or a rate of 254 Putouts in 1233 innings. So that's 15-30 Putouts worse than the two previous years if you adjust for playing time differences. I would assume most of those missed Putouts go for extra bases especially with half your games in Coors. Using 1.5 bases per missed PO would give you 20-45 TBs.

Just adding here...

Along with being the worst defensive player in the league in 1999, he was also one of the worst baserunners...
3rd in the league in outs on the bases with 11
XBT rate of just 34% (league average 43%)
6 SB and 6 CS

He excelled hitting with runners in scoring position. Everything else he was mostly terrible at.

[rbirules]

Its absurd people think Jason Heywards 2015 7 war 13 homerun 60 RBI 79 Run season was not just better but much better than Bichettes 1995 1.2 War 102 run 40 homerun 128 RBI season its just ridiculous and if both of them were coming off those seasons you can bet Bichette would get the much bigger contract than the elite war heyward. Its just an absurd stat

Do you not think Heyward would have had much better offensive stats if he was transported back to 1995 and got to play half his games at Coors Field?

In addition to Bichette, Walker had a phenomenal year in 1995 (36/101) while two other non-hall of famers Galarraga (31/106) and Castilla (32/90) put up MVP "middle of the order bat" type of traditional stats. Four players with 30+ HRs, four players with 90+ RBI, three players with 100+ RBI.

Same exact thing in 1999 (four 30+ HR hitters, four 100+ RBI hitters). You can't just look at HR and RBI and say the mid to late 90s Rockies were the best collection of hitters ever assembled, that's blatantly ignoring massive amounts of context.

The Rockies as a team in 1995 had the following splits . . .
Home - .316/.383/.556/.939, 134 HR, 485 R
Away - .247/.315/.384/.700, 66 HR, 300 R

. . . weird. Their road OBP is on par with their home BA. Their road SLG is on par with their home OBP. They hit more than twice as many HRs at home as they did on the road. What happened?

[Ozziesfan41]

Its absurd people think Jason Heywards 2015 7 war 13 homerun 60 RBI 79 Run season was not just better but much better than Bichettes 1995 1.2 War 102 run 40 homerun 128 RBI season its just ridiculous and if both of them were coming off those seasons you can bet Bichette would get the much bigger contract than the elite war heyward. Its just an absurd stat

Do you not think Heyward would have had much better offensive stats if he was transported back to 1995 and got to play half his games at Coors Field?

In addition to Bichette, Walker had a phenomenal year in 1995 (36/101) while two other non-hall of famers Galarraga (31/106) and Castilla (32/90) put up MVP "middle of the order bat" type of traditional stats. Four players with 30+ HRs, four players with 90+ RBI, three players with 100+ RBI.

Same exact thing in 1999 (four 30+ HR hitters, four 100+ RBI hitters). You can't just look at HR and RBI and say the mid to late 90s Rockies were the best collection of hitters ever assembled, that's blatantly ignoring massive amounts of context.

The Rockies as a team in 1995 had the following splits . . .
Home - .316/.383/.556/.939, 134 HR, 485 R
Away - .247/.315/.384/.700, 66 HR, 300 R

. . . weird. Their road OBP is on par with their home BA. Their road SLG is on par with their home OBP. They hit more than twice as many HRs at home as they did on the road. What happened?

Okay we can use players from the same year Bautista 4.8 war 108 runs 40 home runs 114 RBI Heyward 7 war 79 runs 13 home runs 60 rbi and you’re telling me Heyward was better then Bautista because of war that’s ridiculous no one in their right mind would have taken Heywards production over Bautistas except maybe the war champions

[Goldfan]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

RBI dig into this Bichette discussion. He had 1.86CH per GAME and somehow his D negates 321 TB according to WAR. And this seems logical?

As others have said, it's not the 321 TBs that needs to be negated, it's a fraction of them. The Coors effect (i.e. adjusting to a league average environment) takes away a lot of them. That should be self explanatory I would think.

Next replacement level isn't 0 TB, it's a number well north of there. Dave Martinez had 0.1 fWAR that year. He was also an OF. His league adjusted batting was a little worse than Bichette's (93 wRC+ vs. 100 for Bichette). Martinez had 199 TB, he also had 65 fewer PAs, or about 10% less playing time than Bichette, so his TBs would be closer to 220 if he had the same playing time.

So that gap is now 100 TB due to park factors and bases given up defensively.

I found another near replacement level player that had a wRC+ closer to Bichette's 100 (Greg Norton, 101 wRC+ played for the White Sox). His total bases if you give him the same number of ABs as Bichette would be 251, or 70 less than Bichette. So was Coors responsible for 70 of those total bases? That doesn't seem crazy to me.

Bichette made 13 errors in 1999. For an OF how many bases do you think an average error is worth? Some might only be one, but I'd guess a fair number are two bases, or letting a runner advance an extra base or two with a throwing error. 1.5 bases per error gives us 20 TBs from that alone, and those are on balls he got to and could make a play on. Balls an OF doesn't even get to usually end up as extra base hits.

Bichette made 239 Putouts in 1233 innings in 1999. In 1998 he made 288 Putouts in 1316 innings, or a rate of 269 in 1233 innings. In 1997 he made 225 Putouts in 1090 innings, or a rate of 254 Putouts in 1233 innings. So that's 15-30 Putouts worse than the two previous years if you adjust for playing time differences. I would assume most of those missed Putouts go for extra bases especially with half your games in Coors. Using 1.5 bases per missed PO would give you 20-45 TBs.

Just adding here...

Along with being the worst defensive player in the league in 1999, he was also one of the worst baserunners...
3rd in the league in outs on the bases with 11
XBT rate of just 34% (league average 43%)
6 SB and 6 CS

He excelled hitting with runners in scoring position. Everything else he was mostly terrible at.

“I would assume most of those missed Putouts go for extra bases especially with half your games in Coors.” But if you don’t know this you just can’t assume it. There are ALOT of assumptions made, all apparently for the negative, that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game. If he’s being penalized at a 1for1 ratio for a missed CH in LF that might have amounted to nothing affecting the game but it nullifies a HR, RBI, R…..then that’s a massive over compensation. And it appears WAR negates real RUN/WIN for every non event it assumed occurred. 1.86CH per Game can not possibly allow as many Misses or Errors WAR factors. He led the league in Assits 2 YR. How did Holliday do in Coors LF?

[rbirules]

Its absurd people think Jason Heywards 2015 7 war 13 homerun 60 RBI 79 Run season was not just better but much better than Bichettes 1995 1.2 War 102 run 40 homerun 128 RBI season its just ridiculous and if both of them were coming off those seasons you can bet Bichette would get the much bigger contract than the elite war heyward. Its just an absurd stat

Do you not think Heyward would have had much better offensive stats if he was transported back to 1995 and got to play half his games at Coors Field?

In addition to Bichette, Walker had a phenomenal year in 1995 (36/101) while two other non-hall of famers Galarraga (31/106) and Castilla (32/90) put up MVP "middle of the order bat" type of traditional stats. Four players with 30+ HRs, four players with 90+ RBI, three players with 100+ RBI.

Same exact thing in 1999 (four 30+ HR hitters, four 100+ RBI hitters). You can't just look at HR and RBI and say the mid to late 90s Rockies were the best collection of hitters ever assembled, that's blatantly ignoring massive amounts of context.

The Rockies as a team in 1995 had the following splits . . .
Home - .316/.383/.556/.939, 134 HR, 485 R
Away - .247/.315/.384/.700, 66 HR, 300 R

. . . weird. Their road OBP is on par with their home BA. Their road SLG is on par with their home OBP. They hit more than twice as many HRs at home as they did on the road. What happened?

Okay we can use players from the same year Bautista 4.8 war 108 runs 40 home runs 114 RBI Heyward 7 war 79 runs 13 home runs 60 rbi and you’re telling me Heyward was better then Bautista because of war that’s ridiculous no one in their right mind would have taken Heywards production over Bautistas except maybe the war champions

I've already outlined the differences between Heyward's bWAR of 7 and his fWAR of 5.6 in 2015, driven mostly by different defensive inputs. Both DRS (used in bWAR) and UZR (used in fWAR) think he was great defensively (which I think we all agree with), but DRS thinks he stood out from the pack by another 11 runs saved, or 1.1 WAR. I'm not sure which one is more correct and which one is less correct, but I've repeatedly said I use fWAR and that DRS typically has a much wider range of defensive outcomes.

By fWAR in 2015 . . .
Heyward - 5.6 fWAR
Bautista - 5.2 fWAR

That's well within the range of saying there's not much between them, when looking at fWAR, which I think is a conclusion most could get behind even if they prefer how one player creates their value (more certainty in offensive metrics, etc.). On rare occasions bWAR and fWAR have big differences in value. For position players that almost always is for defensive outliers (on either end of the spectrum). I'd encourage you in these instances to check fWAR and see if those results align more with your expectation.

[An Old Friend]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

RBI dig into this Bichette discussion. He had 1.86CH per GAME and somehow his D negates 321 TB according to WAR. And this seems logical?

As others have said, it's not the 321 TBs that needs to be negated, it's a fraction of them. The Coors effect (i.e. adjusting to a league average environment) takes away a lot of them. That should be self explanatory I would think.

Next replacement level isn't 0 TB, it's a number well north of there. Dave Martinez had 0.1 fWAR that year. He was also an OF. His league adjusted batting was a little worse than Bichette's (93 wRC+ vs. 100 for Bichette). Martinez had 199 TB, he also had 65 fewer PAs, or about 10% less playing time than Bichette, so his TBs would be closer to 220 if he had the same playing time.

So that gap is now 100 TB due to park factors and bases given up defensively.

I found another near replacement level player that had a wRC+ closer to Bichette's 100 (Greg Norton, 101 wRC+ played for the White Sox). His total bases if you give him the same number of ABs as Bichette would be 251, or 70 less than Bichette. So was Coors responsible for 70 of those total bases? That doesn't seem crazy to me.

Bichette made 13 errors in 1999. For an OF how many bases do you think an average error is worth? Some might only be one, but I'd guess a fair number are two bases, or letting a runner advance an extra base or two with a throwing error. 1.5 bases per error gives us 20 TBs from that alone, and those are on balls he got to and could make a play on. Balls an OF doesn't even get to usually end up as extra base hits.

Bichette made 239 Putouts in 1233 innings in 1999. In 1998 he made 288 Putouts in 1316 innings, or a rate of 269 in 1233 innings. In 1997 he made 225 Putouts in 1090 innings, or a rate of 254 Putouts in 1233 innings. So that's 15-30 Putouts worse than the two previous years if you adjust for playing time differences. I would assume most of those missed Putouts go for extra bases especially with half your games in Coors. Using 1.5 bases per missed PO would give you 20-45 TBs.

Just adding here...

Along with being the worst defensive player in the league in 1999, he was also one of the worst baserunners...
3rd in the league in outs on the bases with 11
XBT rate of just 34% (league average 43%)
6 SB and 6 CS

He excelled hitting with runners in scoring position. Everything else he was mostly terrible at.

“I would assume most of those missed Putouts go for extra bases especially with half your games in Coors.” But if you don’t know this you just can’t assume it. There are ALOT of assumptions made, all apparently for the negative, that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game. If he’s being penalized at a 1for1 ratio for a missed CH in LF that might have amounted to nothing affecting the game but it nullifies a HR, RBI, R…..then that’s a massive over compensation. And it appears WAR negates real RUN/WIN for every non event it assumed occurred. 1.86CH per Game can not possibly allow as many Misses or Errors WAR factors. He led the league in Assits 2 YR. How did Holliday do in Coors LF?

So basically, your argument is that defensive data is worthless and cannot be trusted.

Holliday fared far better in LF than Bichette did.

[rbirules]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

RBI dig into this Bichette discussion. He had 1.86CH per GAME and somehow his D negates 321 TB according to WAR. And this seems logical?

As others have said, it's not the 321 TBs that needs to be negated, it's a fraction of them. The Coors effect (i.e. adjusting to a league average environment) takes away a lot of them. That should be self explanatory I would think.

Next replacement level isn't 0 TB, it's a number well north of there. Dave Martinez had 0.1 fWAR that year. He was also an OF. His league adjusted batting was a little worse than Bichette's (93 wRC+ vs. 100 for Bichette). Martinez had 199 TB, he also had 65 fewer PAs, or about 10% less playing time than Bichette, so his TBs would be closer to 220 if he had the same playing time.

So that gap is now 100 TB due to park factors and bases given up defensively.

I found another near replacement level player that had a wRC+ closer to Bichette's 100 (Greg Norton, 101 wRC+ played for the White Sox). His total bases if you give him the same number of ABs as Bichette would be 251, or 70 less than Bichette. So was Coors responsible for 70 of those total bases? That doesn't seem crazy to me.

Bichette made 13 errors in 1999. For an OF how many bases do you think an average error is worth? Some might only be one, but I'd guess a fair number are two bases, or letting a runner advance an extra base or two with a throwing error. 1.5 bases per error gives us 20 TBs from that alone, and those are on balls he got to and could make a play on. Balls an OF doesn't even get to usually end up as extra base hits.

Bichette made 239 Putouts in 1233 innings in 1999. In 1998 he made 288 Putouts in 1316 innings, or a rate of 269 in 1233 innings. In 1997 he made 225 Putouts in 1090 innings, or a rate of 254 Putouts in 1233 innings. So that's 15-30 Putouts worse than the two previous years if you adjust for playing time differences. I would assume most of those missed Putouts go for extra bases especially with half your games in Coors. Using 1.5 bases per missed PO would give you 20-45 TBs.

Just adding here...

Along with being the worst defensive player in the league in 1999, he was also one of the worst baserunners...
3rd in the league in outs on the bases with 11
XBT rate of just 34% (league average 43%)
6 SB and 6 CS

He excelled hitting with runners in scoring position. Everything else he was mostly terrible at.

“I would assume most of those missed Putouts go for extra bases especially with half your games in Coors.” But if you don’t know this you just can’t assume it. There are ALOT of assumptions made, all apparently for the negative, that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game. If he’s being penalized at a 1for1 ratio for a missed CH in LF that might have amounted to nothing affecting the game but it nullifies a HR, RBI, R…..then that’s a massive over compensation. And it appears WAR negates real RUN/WIN for every non event it assumed occurred. 1.86CH per Game can not possibly allow as many Misses or Errors WAR factors. He led the league in Assits 2 YR. How did Holliday do in Coors LF?

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

[ClassicO]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

RBI dig into this Bichette discussion. He had 1.86CH per GAME and somehow his D negates 321 TB according to WAR. And this seems logical?

I don't know why you keep referencing 321 total bases and them all being negated. I mean... I guess I understand why you're doing that, because you're not grasping the concept.

He had a close to league average OPS+ of 102 so his oWAR wasn't very high. BR has him at 43 runs below average in the field... lack of range gave up lots of extra bases and runs.

The same for his son Bo Bichette. I am stunned the BJs keep him at SS. He's been bad for a long time (career -21 OAAA, -14 DRS), and the team suffers, especially when he wasn't hitting last year. When you see a guy's wRC+ or other stats and then see the WAR - it makes you dig to find out why -- and it's usually poor defense and/or baserunning.

[Goldfan]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

RBI dig into this Bichette discussion. He had 1.86CH per GAME and somehow his D negates 321 TB according to WAR. And this seems logical?

As others have said, it's not the 321 TBs that needs to be negated, it's a fraction of them. The Coors effect (i.e. adjusting to a league average environment) takes away a lot of them. That should be self explanatory I would think.

Next replacement level isn't 0 TB, it's a number well north of there. Dave Martinez had 0.1 fWAR that year. He was also an OF. His league adjusted batting was a little worse than Bichette's (93 wRC+ vs. 100 for Bichette). Martinez had 199 TB, he also had 65 fewer PAs, or about 10% less playing time than Bichette, so his TBs would be closer to 220 if he had the same playing time.

So that gap is now 100 TB due to park factors and bases given up defensively.

I found another near replacement level player that had a wRC+ closer to Bichette's 100 (Greg Norton, 101 wRC+ played for the White Sox). His total bases if you give him the same number of ABs as Bichette would be 251, or 70 less than Bichette. So was Coors responsible for 70 of those total bases? That doesn't seem crazy to me.

Bichette made 13 errors in 1999. For an OF how many bases do you think an average error is worth? Some might only be one, but I'd guess a fair number are two bases, or letting a runner advance an extra base or two with a throwing error. 1.5 bases per error gives us 20 TBs from that alone, and those are on balls he got to and could make a play on. Balls an OF doesn't even get to usually end up as extra base hits.

Bichette made 239 Putouts in 1233 innings in 1999. In 1998 he made 288 Putouts in 1316 innings, or a rate of 269 in 1233 innings. In 1997 he made 225 Putouts in 1090 innings, or a rate of 254 Putouts in 1233 innings. So that's 15-30 Putouts worse than the two previous years if you adjust for playing time differences. I would assume most of those missed Putouts go for extra bases especially with half your games in Coors. Using 1.5 bases per missed PO would give you 20-45 TBs.

Just adding here...

Along with being the worst defensive player in the league in 1999, he was also one of the worst baserunners...
3rd in the league in outs on the bases with 11
XBT rate of just 34% (league average 43%)
6 SB and 6 CS

He excelled hitting with runners in scoring position. Everything else he was mostly terrible at.

“I would assume most of those missed Putouts go for extra bases especially with half your games in Coors.” But if you don’t know this you just can’t assume it. There are ALOT of assumptions made, all apparently for the negative, that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game. If he’s being penalized at a 1for1 ratio for a missed CH in LF that might have amounted to nothing affecting the game but it nullifies a HR, RBI, R…..then that’s a massive over compensation. And it appears WAR negates real RUN/WIN for every non event it assumed occurred. 1.86CH per Game can not possibly allow as many Misses or Errors WAR factors. He led the league in Assits 2 YR. How did Holliday do in Coors LF?

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

[Goldfan]

TLR had Dunc in LF
Ozuna had NO ARM and was scaling fences on balls dropping on the warning track
If their play in LF negated their offensive output do you think they would be out there???

[An Old Friend]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

RBI dig into this Bichette discussion. He had 1.86CH per GAME and somehow his D negates 321 TB according to WAR. And this seems logical?

I don't know why you keep referencing 321 total bases and them all being negated. I mean... I guess I understand why you're doing that, because you're not grasping the concept.

He had a close to league average OPS+ of 102 so his oWAR wasn't very high. BR has him at 43 runs below average in the field... lack of range gave up lots of extra bases and runs.

The same for his son Bo Bichette. I am stunned the BJs keep him at SS. He's been bad for a long time (career -21 OAAA, -14 DRS), and the team suffers, especially when he wasn't hitting last year. When you see a guy's wRC+ or other stats and then see the WAR - it makes you dig to find out why -- and it's usually poor defense and/or baserunning.

Yep. This has really come full circle at this point, and I think clearly exhibits why WAR is useful. We see posters still demonstrating that they're still wanting to judge players by counting stats alone and dismissive of anything that challenges that narrow view.

[An Old Friend]

it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output

Bichette had a 102 OPS+ / 100 wRC+ in 1999. There were 281 players with at least 300 plate appearances in 1999, and Bichette was tied for 147th with Gerald Williams and Warren Morris. He was right behind Jeff Conine, Lee Stevens, and Greg Norton. Luis Castillo was at 102 with 0 HR on the season.

That is nowhere near top of the league. Your favorite whipping post Lars Nootbaar has a 104 wRC+ this season.

[Goldfan]

it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output

Bichette had a 102 OPS+ / 100 wRC+ in 1999. There were 281 players with at least 300 plate appearances in 1999, and Bichette was tied for 147th with Gerald Williams and Warren Morris. He was right behind Jeff Conine, Lee Stevens, and Greg Norton. Luis Castillo was at 102 with 0 HR on the season.

That is nowhere near top of the league. Your favorite whipping post Lars Nootbaar has a 104 wRC+ this season.

So Bichette’s offense is degraded because of the Coors Park Factor. Is his defense credited because of the Coors Park Factor?
By far the largest OF in league with pitchers getting pummeled every game.

[ClassicO]

it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output

Bichette had a 102 OPS+ / 100 wRC+ in 1999. There were 281 players with at least 300 plate appearances in 1999, and Bichette was tied for 147th with Gerald Williams and Warren Morris. He was right behind Jeff Conine, Lee Stevens, and Greg Norton. Luis Castillo was at 102 with 0 HR on the season.

That is nowhere near top of the league. Your favorite whipping post Lars Nootbaar has a 104 wRC+ this season.

So Bichette’s offense is degraded because of the Coors Park Factor. Is his defense credited because of the Coors Park Factor?
By far the largest OF in league with pitchers getting pummeled every game.

WAR incorporates a park factor to account for the impact of a player's home ballpark on their offensive and defensive statistics. (You can find this out by using the internet, you know?)

[An Old Friend]

it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output

Bichette had a 102 OPS+ / 100 wRC+ in 1999. There were 281 players with at least 300 plate appearances in 1999, and Bichette was tied for 147th with Gerald Williams and Warren Morris. He was right behind Jeff Conine, Lee Stevens, and Greg Norton. Luis Castillo was at 102 with 0 HR on the season.

That is nowhere near top of the league. Your favorite whipping post Lars Nootbaar has a 104 wRC+ this season.

So Bichette’s offense is degraded because of the Coors Park Factor. Is his defense credited because of the Coors Park Factor?
By far the largest OF in league with pitchers getting pummeled every game.

WAR incorporates a park factor to account for the impact of a player's home ballpark on their offensive and defensive statistics. (You can find this out by using the internet, you know?)

It's also hard to believe he isn't familiar with Coors Field and it's run scoring environment. He's grasping at straws.

[rbirules]

I'm making assumptions because I can't see behind the curtain of advanced metrics. And the more recent, more accurate ones didn't even exist in the 1990s. What would you suggest I do? I'm showing on a rate basis he caught less balls in 1999 than he did in 1998 or 1997, he also made more errors. Those have consequences do they not? It's not ruled an error if the other team didn't gain a base (dropped fly ball leading to a hit or bad throw leading to an extra base or two).

". . . that probably had no bad outcomes as far as the actual game." Now who's making assumptions? How do you know none of those plays impacted a game? For that matter, why should we count hits, HRs, RBIs, if they don't affect a game? If a team wins 15-3 and is already up 7-3 when Bichette hits a 3 run HR and gets a double later on, should we count that? This is an absurd argument. We still count hits that don't drive in runs in BA, OBP, SLG, etc.

You don't know when a hit will lead to the start of, or sustaining of, a rally, just like you don't know if a caught fly ball might stop one (or a missed fly ball might start or sustain one).

There's certainly times when using context dependent stats (RBI, runs, RE24, WPA) makes sense, but I would say in the vast majority of situations context neutral stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, WAR, etc.) are preferred.

He had 1.86CH per GAME…Watching games how many times are there balls hit that require a GG speedster to field to keep that runner from advancing to the “extra” base. Very RARE…..therefore it makes very little sense that top of league offensive output is Negated to the point of turning negative in ANY rating system because of LF defense. Huge overcompensation. You even admit that bWAR is weighs much more heavily than fWAR.,…given that how do you know they both don’t put too much weight on D??

How many times do you see a ball caught at the edge of a fielder's range? Fairly often. How often do you see a slow OF just barely not get to a ball that you think should have been caught, or maybe should have been caught? A fair amount over 162 games. One of those a week is 26 XBHs a season that a defender is giving back to the other team, to use an extreme example. Bichette caught (on a rate basis) 15-30 fewer balls than he himself did in his age 33 and 34 seasons. Is it crazy to think at age 35 he's slowing down and not getting to as many balls anymore? And that most of those balls are going for at least a single if not a double in Coors?

1.86 CH/game is 301 over the course of a season. Giving away 10-20 could easily be 15-30 "total bases" given back.

bWAR does not weight defense much more heavily than fWAR, I believe they both account for 7% of total WAR (14% of run suppression, the other 86% going to pitchers). UZR and DRS are both zero sum stats. If one player is well above average at a position another player, or several players, have to be (well) below average to balance the scales (kind of like a perfectly balanced see saw). I'm saying DRS has more outliers (on both ends of the spectrum) whereas UZR tends to have more players closer to the middle of the seesaw to balance things out. I'm not even saying DRS (and hence bWAR) is wrong, I'm just saying that's what I see in the metrics and thus we see wider ranges of DRS and bWAR than we do in UZR and fWAR, typically.