Going to WAR...for Classic0

[An Old Friend]

you are normally better than this.
I believe I will get back to my thread now and discuss the topic at hand with those interested in more forthright dialogue.
Be well.

I told you pages ago that we fundamentally disagreed. You indicated that you wanted to carry on the discussion, so I chose to use a dramatic example to illustrate how off base I believe your opinion to be.

You lied about my response.
Inexcusable.
Again, you are better than that.

You spent pages going on about how free agent Erick Fedde got overpaid in the market after 2024 because of his WAR.

Let’s not pretend you’ve been genuine, here.

[An Old Friend]

you are normally better than this.
I believe I will get back to my thread now and discuss the topic at hand with those interested in more forthright dialogue.
Be well.

I told you pages ago that we fundamentally disagreed. You indicated that you wanted to carry on the discussion, so I chose to use a dramatic example to illustrate how off base I believe your opinion to be.

And your opinion is off base to others.

My opinion that everything a player does (hitting, defense, baserunning, etc) should be considered when looking at their overall value to the team… is “off base” in what way, specifically?

That’s kind of funny, honestly. Who in their right mind that’s being honest would consider that off base?

[Quincy Varnish]

you are normally better than this.
I believe I will get back to my thread now and discuss the topic at hand with those interested in more forthright dialogue.
Be well.

I told you pages ago that we fundamentally disagreed. You indicated that you wanted to carry on the discussion, so I chose to use a dramatic example to illustrate how off base I believe your opinion to be.

And your opinion is off base to others.

My opinion that everything a player does (hitting, defense, baserunning, etc) should be considered when looking at their overall value to the team… is “off base” in what way, specifically?

That’s kind of funny, honestly. Who in their right mind that’s being honest would consider that off base?

A sizable section of the anti-WAR crowd tends to hold a belief that its supporters look at nothing else. That’s where most of their arguments fall flat.

[An Old Friend]

you are normally better than this.
I believe I will get back to my thread now and discuss the topic at hand with those interested in more forthright dialogue.
Be well.

I told you pages ago that we fundamentally disagreed. You indicated that you wanted to carry on the discussion, so I chose to use a dramatic example to illustrate how off base I believe your opinion to be.

And your opinion is off base to others.

My opinion that everything a player does (hitting, defense, baserunning, etc) should be considered when looking at their overall value to the team… is “off base” in what way, specifically?

That’s kind of funny, honestly. Who in their right mind that’s being honest would consider that off base?

A sizable section of the anti-WAR crowd tends to hold a belief that its supporters look at nothing else. That’s where most of their arguments fall flat.

True. It’s a total straw man fallacy.

[Ozziesfan41]

you are normally better than this.
I believe I will get back to my thread now and discuss the topic at hand with those interested in more forthright dialogue.
Be well.

I told you pages ago that we fundamentally disagreed. You indicated that you wanted to carry on the discussion, so I chose to use a dramatic example to illustrate how off base I believe your opinion to be.

And your opinion is off base to others.

My opinion that everything a player does (hitting, defense, baserunning, etc) should be considered when looking at their overall value to the team… is “off base” in what way, specifically?

That’s kind of funny, honestly. Who in their right mind that’s being honest would consider that off base?

When you weight heavily defense to a corner outfielder who averages what two catches a game a vast majority of which are playable by other outfielders yes it overrates them inflates their value. Carpenter was far more valuable to the team than Heyward that team had no middle of the order hitters and the offense lacked thumpers Heyward with his 13 home runs and 60 rbi and 79 runs and great defense was overrated they needed a guy like upton who could hit in the middle of the order and drive in runs. And I said it a light hitting corner outfielder isn’t worth 180 million or the 200 million the war champions probably you among them was arguing he was worth and I was right

[An Old Friend]

you are normally better than this.
I believe I will get back to my thread now and discuss the topic at hand with those interested in more forthright dialogue.
Be well.

I told you pages ago that we fundamentally disagreed. You indicated that you wanted to carry on the discussion, so I chose to use a dramatic example to illustrate how off base I believe your opinion to be.

And your opinion is off base to others.

My opinion that everything a player does (hitting, defense, baserunning, etc) should be considered when looking at their overall value to the team… is “off base” in what way, specifically?

That’s kind of funny, honestly. Who in their right mind that’s being honest would consider that off base?

When you weight heavily defense to a corner outfielder who averages what two catches a game a vast majority of which are playable by other outfielders yes it overrates them inflates their value. Carpenter was far more valuable to the team than Heyward that team had no middle of the order hitters and the offense lacked thumpers Heyward with his 13 home runs and 60 rbi and 79 runs and great defense was overrated they needed a guy like upton who could hit in the middle of the order and drive in runs. And I said it a light hitting corner outfielder isn’t worth 180 million or the 200 million the war champions probably you among them was arguing he was worth and I was right

Ok, so you’re attributing points I haven’t made to me and then taking shots at them.

Cool. Goodnight.

[Goldfan]

still crickets from Melville. Awkward.

Sorry to keep you waiting, my old friend.
Unlike many here, I am not retired (though I am old enough to do so I suppose, I believe it is immoral to retire while one can still contribute to society at a high level).
I enjoy the competition of outperforming folks half my age - and enjoy even more how much I can teach (much like I do here).
Still have a few more years to put in before I move on to the next phase of life.
Which means, that while I am fully aware that many hang on my every word and am always willing to fulfill that need, sometimes folks simply need to be patient.
Sometimes hours.
Sometimes days.
Now, how can I help you?

Who are you taking?
Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

That is easy.
What position does each play?
And at which of those 2 positions do I have a need on my roster?
What is the age of each?
How many years of control do I get from either one?
Are both FA's - or can I trade for one?
If the answers are exactly the same for both, I take A.
But if neither fit what my roster needs, I don't take either one.
Worth noting that WAR is of zero help with any of those questions.

So you changed your answer from before.

They’re both outfielders.

I have you down for A.

Player A is 1999 Dante Bichette, -2.3 bWAR
Player B is 1999 Andruw Jones, 7.1 bWAR

So you both took a player who was nearly 9 WAR less valuable.

Thank you for playing.

And this proves that WAR is reliable stat for proving a players value?

Bichette’s counting stats were buoyed by Colorado. He had a 102 OPS+.

His defense in left field was so historically abysmal that it wiped out all of his offensive contribution and then some.

Meanwhile, Jones had a strong offensive season and was one of the best defensive center fielders of all time.

At face value of counting stats alone, you identified a far worse baseball player as the one you’d rather have. That’s kind of the point… because if you’d seen their WAR, as well, you might’ve been inclined to lean in to see what drove that massive difference in value when your mind told you it HAD to be player A

Prove to me that his D gave up anywhere close to 34, 133, 104 and 321 TB
Impossible. How many CH does a LF get per game and out of those what does he not get to that someone else does. AS I’ve repeatedly said WAR is out of whack when the real game

He had 1.86 CH per GAME in LF………it’s LF. We’ve been watching Baseball our whole lives…..once in a great while are balls played into extra base hits by a LFer. So every CH he screwed up and it completely negates his 321 TB for the year?? Ridiculous

Again show me the real stats where at 1.86Ch PER GAME that Bichette had to have muffed every CH somehow to negate 321 TB…..because that’s roughly the math. It’s ridiculous
And again in ‘95 where he was 2nd in MVP voting for the NL, he had a 1.2WAR…..It’s laughable. If the giant negative which would have been a daily highlight reel on ESPN of his comical misplays in LF were accurate, no team would play such a clown……and at 1.86CH it is impossible to negate the level of offense he produced

[rbirules]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

[Goldfan]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

RBI dig into this Bichette discussion. He had 1.86CH per GAME and somehow his D negates 321 TB according to WAR. And this seems logical?

[An Old Friend]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

RBI dig into this Bichette discussion. He had 1.86CH per GAME and somehow his D negates 321 TB according to WAR. And this seems logical?

I don't know why you keep referencing 321 total bases and them all being negated. I mean... I guess I understand why you're doing that, because you're not grasping the concept.

He had a close to league average OPS+ of 102 so his oWAR wasn't very high. BR has him at 43 runs below average in the field... lack of range gave up lots of extra bases and runs.

[ScotchMIrish]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

Numbers accumulated while being a DH should not count in calculating WAR. I would say the same regarding career totals. DH has a much lower risk of injury because he sits on the bench for the entire game except for the 4 or 5 times he walks to the batters box. He doesn't need to own a glove. He isn't a baseball player. He is a batter.

[An Old Friend]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

Numbers accumulated while being a DH should not count in calculating WAR. I would say the same regarding career totals. DH has a much lower risk of injury because he sits on the bench for the entire game except for the 4 or 5 times he walks to the batters box. He doesn't need to own a glove. He isn't a baseball player. He is a batter.

You have to score runs to win baseball games. Why would you NOT count an offensive player's offensive contributions?

That's absurd.

[An Old Friend]

Numbers accumulated while being a DH should not count in calculating WAR. He isn't a baseball player..

I'd love to see a baseball fan tell these guys they weren't baseball players...

[rbirules]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

RBI dig into this Bichette discussion. He had 1.86CH per GAME and somehow his D negates 321 TB according to WAR. And this seems logical?

As others have said, it's not the 321 TBs that needs to be negated, it's a fraction of them. The Coors effect (i.e. adjusting to a league average environment) takes away a lot of them. That should be self explanatory I would think.

Next replacement level isn't 0 TB, it's a number well north of there. Dave Martinez had 0.1 fWAR that year. He was also an OF. His league adjusted batting was a little worse than Bichette's (93 wRC+ vs. 100 for Bichette). Martinez had 199 TB, he also had 65 fewer PAs, or about 10% less playing time than Bichette, so his TBs would be closer to 220 if he had the same playing time.

So that gap is now 100 TB due to park factors and bases given up defensively.

I found another near replacement level player that had a wRC+ closer to Bichette's 100 (Greg Norton, 101 wRC+ played for the White Sox). His total bases if you give him the same number of ABs as Bichette would be 251, or 70 less than Bichette. So was Coors responsible for 70 of those total bases? That doesn't seem crazy to me.

Bichette made 13 errors in 1999. For an OF how many bases do you think an average error is worth? Some might only be one, but I'd guess a fair number are two bases, or letting a runner advance an extra base or two with a throwing error. 1.5 bases per error gives us 20 TBs from that alone, and those are on balls he got to and could make a play on. Balls an OF doesn't even get to usually end up as extra base hits.

Bichette made 239 P[ositively] O[bnoxious] S[impleton] in 1233 innings in 1999. In 1998 he made 288 P[ositively] O[bnoxious] S[impleton] in 1316 innings, or a rate of 269 in 1233 innings. In 1997 he made 225 P[ositively] O[bnoxious] S[impleton] in 1090 innings, or a rate of 254 P[ositively] O[bnoxious] S[impleton] in 1233 innings. So that's 15-30 P[ositively] O[bnoxious] S[impleton] worse than the two previous years if you adjust for playing time differences. I would assume most of those missed P[ositively] O[bnoxious] S[impleton] go for extra bases especially with half your games in Coors. Using 1.5 bases per missed PO would give you 20-45 TBs.

[rbirules]

Designated hitters don’t lose runs. My gawd.

And they do nothing to prevent runs (another important aspect of the game). And the positional +/- is all about comparisons.
Is a LF as valuable overall as a SS - or DH?

This. It's the relativity to other positions that matters. They could have designed it with DH having a 0 positional adjustment and C having a +30 adjustment, but then they'd have to lower the baseline later, like they do when they go from RAA (runs above average) to RAR (runs above replacement), so instead they just centered all positions around 0 (some above, some below).

Numbers accumulated while being a DH should not count in calculating WAR. I would say the same regarding career totals. DH has a much lower risk of injury because he sits on the bench for the entire game except for the 4 or 5 times he walks to the batters box. He doesn't need to own a glove. He isn't a baseball player. He is a batter.

Yes, your disdain for the DH has long been established. Saying numbers from that position should not count is just an absurd position to take without any real argument for doing so other than "I don't like the DH". The DH gets a massive positional adjustment for the very reason you described, they contribute nothing in the field.

[Ozziesfan41]

Its absurd people think Jason Heywards 2015 7 war 13 homerun 60 RBI 79 Run season was not just better but much better than Bichettes 1995 1.2 War 102 run 40 homerun 128 RBI season its just ridiculous and if both of them were coming off those seasons you can bet Bichette would get the much bigger contract than the elite war heyward. Its just an absurd stat