Going to WAR...for Classic0

[ScotchMIrish]

WAR is imperfect because it assigns an arbitrary number to each position on defense. It also fails to value correctly players who DH because they are poor fielders.

Herrera has a 1.2 WAR. Pages has a .2 WAR. Some would say catcher is the most valuable on defense of the position players but Herrera has a higher WAR despite the fact that he is a liability on defense. I would say Pages is more valuable because without him Herrera would be catching every game.


https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2025.shtml

[An Old Friend]

WAR is imperfect because it assigns an arbitrary number to each position on defense. It also fails to value correctly players who DH because they are poor fielders.

Herrera has a 1.2 WAR. Pages has a .2 WAR. Some would say catcher is the most valuable on defense of the position players but Herrera has a higher WAR despite the fact that he is a liability on defense. I would say Pages is more valuable because without him Herrera would be catching every game.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2025.shtml

No, without him, someone else would be catching.

Herrera is worth that much because he has hit like prime JD Martinez when he's been on the field.
Pages is worth so little because he is a near complete liability on offense.

[Goldfan]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

So you're going against your Heyward / Carpenter position already?

Both players are outfielders

Is it the reading or comprehension you lack? Heyward/Carp isn’t a SS v 1b. I believe that 3b is more difficult position and as I’ve said repeatedly Carp was responsible for about 67 more outs over the course of the season and I doubt all the “magic” by Heyward in RF, when most of his PO were relatively easy fly ball catches, made up for overtaking a more difficult position while being involved in more CH and PO while having much better offensive numbers…..is that easy enough to comprehend? And directly from RBI, one gives much more credit to D than the other……which is funny because it’s the same outcome……

Cool, you dispute the value of defense. Fine.

Two outfielders, Player A and Player B. Player A has more HR / RBI / Runs / Total Bases (all in less games). Which one are you taking? If you won't answer, why won't you answer?

Sure A

[An Old Friend]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

So you're going against your Heyward / Carpenter position already?

Both players are outfielders

Is it the reading or comprehension you lack? Heyward/Carp isn’t a SS v 1b. I believe that 3b is more difficult position and as I’ve said repeatedly Carp was responsible for about 67 more outs over the course of the season and I doubt all the “magic” by Heyward in RF, when most of his PO were relatively easy fly ball catches, made up for overtaking a more difficult position while being involved in more CH and PO while having much better offensive numbers…..is that easy enough to comprehend? And directly from RBI, one gives much more credit to D than the other……which is funny because it’s the same outcome……

Cool, you dispute the value of defense. Fine.

Two outfielders, Player A and Player B. Player A has more HR / RBI / Runs / Total Bases (all in less games). Which one are you taking? If you won't answer, why won't you answer?

Sure A

Thanks, that wasn't so hard.

Now just waiting on Melville who has conveniently ghosted.

[Goldfan]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

So you're going against your Heyward / Carpenter position already?

Both players are outfielders

Is it the reading or comprehension you lack? Heyward/Carp isn’t a SS v 1b. I believe that 3b is more difficult position and as I’ve said repeatedly Carp was responsible for about 67 more outs over the course of the season and I doubt all the “magic” by Heyward in RF, when most of his PO were relatively easy fly ball catches, made up for overtaking a more difficult position while being involved in more CH and PO while having much better offensive numbers…..is that easy enough to comprehend? And directly from RBI, one gives much more credit to D than the other……which is funny because it’s the same outcome……

Cool, you dispute the value of defense. Fine.

Two outfielders, Player A and Player B. Player A has more HR / RBI / Runs / Total Bases (all in less games). Which one are you taking? If you won't answer, why won't you answer?

Sure A

Thanks, that wasn't so hard.

Now just waiting on Melville who has conveniently ghosted.

Are you mailing my prize or do I need to pickup??

[ScotchMIrish]

WAR is imperfect because it assigns an arbitrary number to each position on defense. It also fails to value correctly players who DH because they are poor fielders.

Herrera has a 1.2 WAR. Pages has a .2 WAR. Some would say catcher is the most valuable on defense of the position players but Herrera has a higher WAR despite the fact that he is a liability on defense. I would say Pages is more valuable because without him Herrera would be catching every game.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2025.shtml

No, without him, someone else would be catching.

Herrera is worth that much because he has hit like prime JD Martinez when he's been on the field.
Pages is worth so little because he is a near complete liability on offense.

Pages is playing because of Herrera. That should be factored in Herrera's WAR. It is also why the DH doesn't necessarily increase offense. Put a poor defender on the field and the other team gains offense.

[An Old Friend]

WAR is imperfect because it assigns an arbitrary number to each position on defense. It also fails to value correctly players who DH because they are poor fielders.

Herrera has a 1.2 WAR. Pages has a .2 WAR. Some would say catcher is the most valuable on defense of the position players but Herrera has a higher WAR despite the fact that he is a liability on defense. I would say Pages is more valuable because without him Herrera would be catching every game.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2025.shtml

No, without him, someone else would be catching.

Herrera is worth that much because he has hit like prime JD Martinez when he's been on the field.
Pages is worth so little because he is a near complete liability on offense.

Pages is playing because of Herrera. That should be factored in Herrera's WAR. It is also why the DH doesn't necessarily increase offense. Put a poor defender on the field and the other team gains offense.

No, Pages is playing because of Mozeliak.

Mozeliak's roster construction be used to penalize other players on the roster?

That's a new argument against WAR I didn't expect to see

[An Old Friend]

Are you mailing my prize or do I need to pickup??

I'll give Melville the afternoon to respond before we discuss prizes.

Interested to see if he has the stones to respond or if he'll completely lack conviction.

[renostl]

WAR is imperfect because it assigns an arbitrary number to each position on defense. It also fails to value correctly players who DH because they are poor fielders.

Herrera has a 1.2 WAR. Pages has a .2 WAR. Some would say catcher is the most valuable on defense of the position players but Herrera has a higher WAR despite the fact that he is a liability on defense. I would say Pages is more valuable because without him Herrera would be catching every game.


https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2025.shtml

Let's not forget that catcher is a weighted position.
Pages gets his 0.2 because he performs there.

You can only be judged on where you play.

[Quincy Varnish]

Two, WAR is an estimate based on extremely subjective and assigned values.

Please describe the specific elements of WAR you consider “extremely subjective”.

Who or what determines what a “Replacement Level Player” is…..since this is the foundation of what WAR is based…..a ghost player
Who or what or Why determines the scale of “Positional Adjustment”
Who or what or Why determines the scale of “League Adjustment”…..does this even matter with balanced schedule??
How is it known that the starting baseline of all this assuming and adjusting is accurate?

You have made another great point.
"Replacement player" is yet another assumption.
Let's say Whetherholt is the STL 2B next year - and wins ROY.
Donovan moves to LF and Gorman to 3B.
Who did Whetherholt replace?
And as the "replacement player" would his value be "wins above" or "negative wins above" Donovan and Gorman based on his own actual contribution?
Or is he not the "replacement player" at all?
Is the "replacement player" actually just a fictional estimate - something akin to an invisible friend?

It’s stated AAA player, bench or available FA. So example on the Cards would be Saggesse, Barriro, the fella who was called up and released?
What kind of baseline or constant could possibly be derived from those types?? And this is the equations origination. Fantasy

How have your extensive studies of statistics led you to this conclusion?

Please tell me the number of standard deviations below the mean would establish the baseline of a replacement player.

Apparently you feel the designers of WAR are throwing darts at a board, so I am eager to hear your insights.

You don’t require extensive studies of stats. Show me the data used to establish this baseline “replacement player” which WAR originates?

Now that this has been answered, is your claim still “fantasy”?

[Goldfan]

Two, WAR is an estimate based on extremely subjective and assigned values.

Please describe the specific elements of WAR you consider “extremely subjective”.

Who or what determines what a “Replacement Level Player” is…..since this is the foundation of what WAR is based…..a ghost player
Who or what or Why determines the scale of “Positional Adjustment”
Who or what or Why determines the scale of “League Adjustment”…..does this even matter with balanced schedule??
How is it known that the starting baseline of all this assuming and adjusting is accurate?

You have made another great point.
"Replacement player" is yet another assumption.
Let's say Whetherholt is the STL 2B next year - and wins ROY.
Donovan moves to LF and Gorman to 3B.
Who did Whetherholt replace?
And as the "replacement player" would his value be "wins above" or "negative wins above" Donovan and Gorman based on his own actual contribution?
Or is he not the "replacement player" at all?
Is the "replacement player" actually just a fictional estimate - something akin to an invisible friend?

It’s stated AAA player, bench or available FA. So example on the Cards would be Saggesse, Barriro, the fella who was called up and released?
What kind of baseline or constant could possibly be derived from those types?? And this is the equations origination. Fantasy

How have your extensive studies of statistics led you to this conclusion?

Please tell me the number of standard deviations below the mean would establish the baseline of a replacement player.

Apparently you feel the designers of WAR are throwing darts at a board, so I am eager to hear your insights.

You don’t require extensive studies of stats. Show me the data used to establish this baseline “replacement player” which WAR originates?

Now that this has been answered, is your claim still “fantasy”?

Sure giant gaps abound……bWAR looks at same season and spits out 4.8 and 7, fWAR spits out 5.3 and 5.7.
Using exact same official MLB stats.
If those numbers are suppose to represent an actual player value the difference is wide enough to drive AOF’s ego through…..

[Quincy Varnish]

Two, WAR is an estimate based on extremely subjective and assigned values.

Please describe the specific elements of WAR you consider “extremely subjective”.

Who or what determines what a “Replacement Level Player” is…..since this is the foundation of what WAR is based…..a ghost player
Who or what or Why determines the scale of “Positional Adjustment”
Who or what or Why determines the scale of “League Adjustment”…..does this even matter with balanced schedule??
How is it known that the starting baseline of all this assuming and adjusting is accurate?

You have made another great point.
"Replacement player" is yet another assumption.
Let's say Whetherholt is the STL 2B next year - and wins ROY.
Donovan moves to LF and Gorman to 3B.
Who did Whetherholt replace?
And as the "replacement player" would his value be "wins above" or "negative wins above" Donovan and Gorman based on his own actual contribution?
Or is he not the "replacement player" at all?
Is the "replacement player" actually just a fictional estimate - something akin to an invisible friend?

It’s stated AAA player, bench or available FA. So example on the Cards would be Saggesse, Barriro, the fella who was called up and released?
What kind of baseline or constant could possibly be derived from those types?? And this is the equations origination. Fantasy

How have your extensive studies of statistics led you to this conclusion?

Please tell me the number of standard deviations below the mean would establish the baseline of a replacement player.

Apparently you feel the designers of WAR are throwing darts at a board, so I am eager to hear your insights.

You don’t require extensive studies of stats. Show me the data used to establish this baseline “replacement player” which WAR originates?

Now that this has been answered, is your claim still “fantasy”?

Sure giant gaps abound……bWAR looks at same season and spits out 4.8 and 7, fWAR spits out 5.3 and 5.7.
Using exact same official MLB stats.
If those numbers are suppose to represent an actual player value the difference is wide enough to drive AOF’s ego through…..

They use different methodology. This has already been explained.


Long ago in one season, walks were factored into batting averages. Does that mean batting average is also fantasy?

[Goldfan]

Two, WAR is an estimate based on extremely subjective and assigned values.

Please describe the specific elements of WAR you consider “extremely subjective”.

Who or what determines what a “Replacement Level Player” is…..since this is the foundation of what WAR is based…..a ghost player
Who or what or Why determines the scale of “Positional Adjustment”
Who or what or Why determines the scale of “League Adjustment”…..does this even matter with balanced schedule??
How is it known that the starting baseline of all this assuming and adjusting is accurate?

You have made another great point.
"Replacement player" is yet another assumption.
Let's say Whetherholt is the STL 2B next year - and wins ROY.
Donovan moves to LF and Gorman to 3B.
Who did Whetherholt replace?
And as the "replacement player" would his value be "wins above" or "negative wins above" Donovan and Gorman based on his own actual contribution?
Or is he not the "replacement player" at all?
Is the "replacement player" actually just a fictional estimate - something akin to an invisible friend?

It’s stated AAA player, bench or available FA. So example on the Cards would be Saggesse, Barriro, the fella who was called up and released?
What kind of baseline or constant could possibly be derived from those types?? And this is the equations origination. Fantasy

How have your extensive studies of statistics led you to this conclusion?

Please tell me the number of standard deviations below the mean would establish the baseline of a replacement player.

Apparently you feel the designers of WAR are throwing darts at a board, so I am eager to hear your insights.

You don’t require extensive studies of stats. Show me the data used to establish this baseline “replacement player” which WAR originates?

Now that this has been answered, is your claim still “fantasy”?

Sure giant gaps abound……bWAR looks at same season and spits out 4.8 and 7, fWAR spits out 5.3 and 5.7.
Using exact same official MLB stats.
If those numbers are suppose to represent an actual player value the difference is wide enough to drive AOF’s ego through…..

They use different methodology. This has already been explained.


Long ago in one season, walks were factored into batting averages. Does that mean batting average is also fantasy?

WAR is a general estimator that is fine for the top and bottom players but really does nothing to differentiate the middle 80%.
As far as batting avg…..MLB decided to eliminate a factor…..going forward the inputs have been constant for decades. The real stat equations are straight forward and obvious along with counting stats….no assumption….no adjustments…..no interpretation. Has anyone asked if the assumptions, adjustments, and ultimate interpretations require their own adjustments and don’t align with reality?

[Quincy Varnish]

WAR is a general estimator that is fine for the top and bottom players but really does nothing to differentiate the middle 80%.

Please explain how you arrived on 80%. Seems like an estimate?

As far as batting avg…..MLB decided to eliminate a factor…..going forward the inputs have been constant for decades. The real stat equations are straight forward and obvious along with counting stats….no assumption….no adjustments…..no interpretation.

There have been countless adjustments to baseball records over the years.

Has anyone asked if the assumptions, adjustments, and ultimate interpretations require their own adjustments and don’t align with reality?

Define reality.

[ClassicO]

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

My god, you're using defense and positional adjustment as part of a player's comparative value. And there's more to baserunning than SBs, so more of that should be considered.

It's awfully funny to see him say it when he's argued against it, isn't it?

He doesn't understand it and has cognitive dissonance even trying to do so because his mind was made up long ago.

[Quincy Varnish]

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

My god, you're using defense and positional adjustment as part of a player's comparative value. And there's more to baserunning than SBs, so more of that should be considered.

It's awfully funny to see him say it when he's argued against it, isn't it?

He doesn't understand it and has cognitive dissonance even trying to do so because his mind was made up long ago.

Why do these weirdos keep dedicating their time and intellect developing WAR? It’s just a waste of energy, when they could simply ask Goldfan and Melville for their evaluations.