Going to WAR...for Classic0

[Melville]

Two, WAR is an estimate based on extremely subjective and assigned values.

Please describe the specific elements of WAR you consider “extremely subjective”.

Who or what determines what a “Replacement Level Player” is…..since this is the foundation of what WAR is based…..a ghost player
Who or what or Why determines the scale of “Positional Adjustment”
Who or what or Why determines the scale of “League Adjustment”…..does this even matter with balanced schedule??
How is it known that the starting baseline of all this assuming and adjusting is accurate?

You have made another great point.
"Replacement player" is yet another assumption.
Let's say Whetherholt is the STL 2B next year - and wins ROY.
Donovan moves to LF and Gorman to 3B.
Who did Whetherholt replace?
And as the "replacement player" would his value be "wins above" or "negative wins above" Donovan and Gorman based on his own actual contribution?
Or is he not the "replacement player" at all?
Is the "replacement player" actually just a fictional estimate - something akin to an invisible friend?

Are you conceding that you have never read the definition of WAR
and yet know that it has no meaning and is fictious?

Nope.
Rhetoric construct.
I have read and studied several definitions of the WAR fiction.
The scenario above is simply a good illustration of just how silly WAR is.
No such thing as a "replacement level player".
WAR is indeed nothing more than an invisible friend who does not actually exist.

Then there should be room on both sides to see aspects where there can be reasons to
use it as a tool. There can also be acknowledgement that it isn't without debate
or discussion. To do so without belittling some very good baseball people on both sides isn't
of use. Question the POV and its integrity.

You have rated Outfielders as #1,#2, #3 or a number 4. I seriously doubt that you have
done so without analysis of data. Your opinions are not only bias and full of subjective whims but
from some objective data. Otherwise, I would certainly not waste this much time responding to your
opinions.

It is possible that you have done so by using some of the same data. You may have given different
weights to the data and reached a conclusion. Sometimes different than that of myself and sometimes in
agreement. WAR is a tool that can quickly compare players and at its best with same position players.

Could not agree more.
Problem is, when WAR is questioned, and obvious examples of just how inadequate it is are presented, its advocates refuse to engage concerning those questions.
And often denigrate.
Odd.
Does WAR have its place?
Of course.
As an amusing parlor game.
Does it "compare players" in an objective and reliable way?
No - because that is an impossibility.
The game itself does not allow it and never will.
Have you ever looked at the top 20 career WAR list?
It is a joke - and not one serious baseball person would endorse it as being anywhere close to reality.
So, yes, folks can debate Bonds vs Musial vs Mays vs Mantle all day long using WAR.
But, that debate would be of far less quality and far less accurate than having an actual BASEBALL conversation.
WAR conversations tend to be that way.
After all, it has proven nearly impossible to get a quality, honest answer from a single WAR proponent concerning even someone as pedestrian as Fedde.

[Goldfan]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

My contention has been that the Heyward RF D value in no way overcompensates for Carps offense to record a 7 v 4.8…..perhaps its a wash

[Melville]

Would WAR have valued Fedde correctly had he been available last fall?
Obviously, no.

Since he wasn’t a free agent, you can’t speak in absolutes.

The answer could be “hypothetically, no”… or “hypothetically, yes”. “Obviously” isn’t an option because it relies on you making up a result to a scenario that did not exist.

So why not simply admit it, thereby opening the door to a productive dialogue?

Nothing productive comes from a baseline of a made up scenario with pretend results cultivated to serve one side of a debate.

Fedde could’ve gotten a QO if he was a free agent. He could’ve been on the market and gotten Wacha / Lynn / Gibson type of contracts because of his track record.

The only “obvious” is that we have no idea how the market would have valued him.

It is a waste of your time to answer such an easy question (which would require less than 15 seconds) - given the time you have already invested in this thread?
Quite curious.

I’ve answered your silly question, now.

"Nothing productive comes from a baseline of a made up scenario"
So you are now rejecting WAR?
Because that is EXACTLY the entire premise behind it!
And no, you have not answered the Fedde question.
At a 5.8 WAR, would the market have over-valued him a year ago?
That is NOT a hypothetical.
5.8 WAR was his assigned comparative value, period.
Your endorsed number, not mine.
Depending on the source, WAR is valued at 4-5M per unit (like everything WAR related, there is no single consistent definitive source.)
That would have put Fedde's value at somewhere between 23M and 29M last fall (oddly large range for such as accurate tool as WAR purports to be.)
Do you agree with WAR that Fedde was correctly valued as being a 23M - 29M player?
Again, nothing hypothetical about it.
That is what WAR established as his comparative value.
Was WAR right?
Or terribly wrong?

[Melville]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

My contention has been that the Heyward RF D value in no way overcompensates for Carps offense to record a 7 v 4.8…..perhaps its a wash

That would depend on the 100% subjective value assigned to the value of runs actually produced and the value assigned to each speculative run surrendered or prevented.
One is measurable, the other is not.

[JDW]

So the market would have likely looked at Fedde and seen he had a career year, but is on the wrong side of 30 and also has a poor career WAR. Some team might have signed him on a prove it $10M and change or so on a one year deal, possibly with a team option year, thinking maybe he's figured something out enough to give him a chance. If he disappoints, big deal, he'll likely provide some needed innings for a rotation.
One thing for sure, they would have looked at his whole body of work and year to year WAR among other metrics since he has a number of years to look at, not just his 2024 stats.

[Goldfan]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

My contention has been that the Heyward RF D value in no way overcompensates for Carps offense to record a 7 v 4.8…..perhaps its a wash

That would depend on the 100% subjective value assigned to the value of runs actually produced and the value assigned to each speculative run surrendered or prevented.
One is measurable, the other is not.

So at best WAR is a general estimator….which is not a STAT…...if one can easily research the actual hard numbers I’m not really sure what its purpose is….
But the fellas here who obviously don’t understand the minutia behind it will defend to the death like its a their child or they have financial interest in it

[rbirules]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

My contention has been that the Heyward RF D value in no way overcompensates for Carps offense to record a 7 v 4.8…..perhaps its a wash

And fWAR (the one I use) agrees with you. 5.6 fWAR for Heyward and 5.3 fWAR for Carpenter is not a meaningful difference.

When you see big differences in value for a player between the two models, it is usually due to defense. Heyward is a defensive outlier and DRS (bWAR defensive input) tends to have a much wider range than UZR (fWAR defensive input). Not saying UZR is for sure right and DRS is for sure wrong, but that alone is what is driving a huge difference between them in bWAR, whereas fWAR thinks they are very close.

I use fWAR because I prefer their pitching model much more than bWAR's but the defensive metrics are also less extreme (but again, I'm not saying that is correct).

[ClassicO]

If ANYONE on this board needs to better understand and utilize WAR, it's you, Melville. And key stats other than your gut.
Your current use of ... nothing ... for value determinations has failed you badly. And again - Mr. Chicken - give us your metric for determining a player's value vis-a-vis another player (I've asked 5 times and you dodged it.)

Some, not all, of your dumb predictions/recommendations based on a failure to understand player value:

1) Carlson will be a "quality, long term starting MLB;" Later - "I stand by that, and it is inevitable that I will be proven correct." "“I have been spot-on perfect in my analysis of every STL outfielder."
2) "Dakota Hudson is the most irreplaceable player on the Cardinals."
3) Sign Comforto for long, exorbitant contract;
4) Sign Chris Taylor to play 2b (!) for $15/M/yr, 3 years.
5) Sign Holland for 3 years,/$50M;
6) Don't sign Contreras.
7) Donovan is not the answer as a LH hitter;
The UniKKorn = Gorman - "There has never been a power hitting LH 2b like him in MLB history.." (Like Taylor - he isn't even a viable second baseman.);
9) Pages - great defensively and it "won't be easy" to replace him in the lineup (compared him to Pagnozzi - ha ha ha);
10) Herrera - "don't read too much into his 150 ABs;"
11) Helsley - In May: "Offer 4-year extension, $17M a year"; Nov '24 = "It would be foolish to trade Helsley at this juncture."
12) Mo will trade Arenado - Sept 2023 (didn't happen as predicted, so you decided a non-trade with HOU was a trade); "He is as gone as the dinosaurs. You have my personal guarantee (HA!);" (You also guaranteed that Waino would start a playoff game;)
13) Palacios will get another look in 2023. (no.)
14) "Herrera or Knizner will be traded. Herrera is the more likely to go;"
15) Jan 2023- "Burleson has no significant future in STL - Mo will trade him at some point this year of the coming off-season."

You really need to review WAR and the most relevant stats, and get a clue that you are horrible at understanding player value.

[An Old Friend]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

[An Old Friend]

Would WAR have valued Fedde correctly had he been available last fall?
Obviously, no.

Since he wasn’t a free agent, you can’t speak in absolutes.

The answer could be “hypothetically, no”… or “hypothetically, yes”. “Obviously” isn’t an option because it relies on you making up a result to a scenario that did not exist.

So why not simply admit it, thereby opening the door to a productive dialogue?

Nothing productive comes from a baseline of a made up scenario with pretend results cultivated to serve one side of a debate.

Fedde could’ve gotten a QO if he was a free agent. He could’ve been on the market and gotten Wacha / Lynn / Gibson type of contracts because of his track record.

The only “obvious” is that we have no idea how the market would have valued him.

It is a waste of your time to answer such an easy question (which would require less than 15 seconds) - given the time you have already invested in this thread?
Quite curious.

I’ve answered your silly question, now.

"Nothing productive comes from a baseline of a made up scenario"
So you are now rejecting WAR?
Because that is EXACTLY the entire premise behind it!

No, I'm rejecting your scenario because it isn't reality, but you provided an answer as if it was absolute. You know what you did.

And no, you have not answered the Fedde question.
At a 5.8 WAR, would the market have over-valued him a year ago?
That is NOT a hypothetical.

It is, because he wasn't a free agent. It's the definition of hypothetical.

5.8 WAR was his assigned comparative value, period.
Your endorsed number, not mine.

Yes, he had a fine year, 5.6 bWAR / 3.4 fWAR. Personally I prefer fWAR, but that doesn't matter, here.

Depending on the source, WAR is valued at 4-5M per unit (like everything WAR related, there is no single consistent definitive source.)
That would have put Fedde's value at somewhere between 23M and 29M last fall (oddly large range for such as accurate tool as WAR purports to be.)
Do you agree with WAR that Fedde was correctly valued as being a 23M - 29M player?

He provided that in value, yes. Based on the cost of production on the free agent market, Fangraphs valued his performance in 2024 at $27.5MM, so the White Sox got phenomenal value out of that deal.

Again, nothing hypothetical about it.

Agree that there was nothing hypothetical about how he performed.

That is what WAR established as his comparative value.
Was WAR right?
Or terribly wrong?

It's not a right or wrong - it just is. The cost of a win (i.e. an additional unit of WAR) has been around $8MM... so if a team is projecting a guy to be worth 15 WAR over the next 5 years, they may be comfortable offering him in the neighborhood of 5 years and $120MM.

It's a simple way of looking at it, but at a very basic level, that's how teams are valuing extra wins on the market.

You're trying to attribute one year's performance and value derived to his go forward free agent value, and that is not how the market generally works... now, you might have some bad behavers like the Angels or Rockies, or a team desperate to spend like the Athletics, that throw things off a bit. But by and large, this is how you'd model it.

Teams don't look at a player like Erick Fedde, ignore his entire career, and give him a single or multi year deal at $25MM+ per. And your entire argument hear is based on that having happened if he was a free agent after last season.

You don't get to makeup outcomes based on your own alternate reality, and then pretend you're the bastion of all logic and reason.

You want productive dialogue? Then maybe you should acknowledge, just once, that the other side of this debate has some merit. To this point, you have not, and that's the opposite of productive.

[Goldfan]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

[ClassicO]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

My god, you're using defense and positional adjustment as part of a player's comparative value. And there's more to baserunning than SBs, so more of that should be considered.

[An Old Friend]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

So you're going against your Heyward / Carpenter position already?

Both players are outfielders

[An Old Friend]

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

My god, you're using defense and positional adjustment as part of a player's comparative value. And there's more to baserunning than SBs, so more of that should be considered.

It's awfully funny to see him say it when he's argued against it, isn't it?

[Goldfan]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

So you're going against your Heyward / Carpenter position already?

Both players are outfielders

Is it the reading or comprehension you lack? Heyward/Carp isn’t a SS v 1b. I believe that 3b is more difficult position and as I’ve said repeatedly Carp was responsible for about 67 more outs over the course of the season and I doubt all the “magic” by Heyward in RF, when most of his PO were relatively easy fly ball catches, made up for overtaking a more difficult position while being involved in more CH and PO while having much better offensive numbers…..is that easy enough to comprehend? And directly from RBI, one gives much more credit to D than the other……which is funny because it’s the same outcome……

[An Old Friend]

Anyone who has watched the game of baseball, if you look at these numbers closely, should be able to see the value attributed to each category is out of whack. Heyward receives only +15 for the act of hitting the baseball, but somehow is allocated +7.2 for baserunning….presumably for stealing 19 more bases than Carp…..he receives 50% of the value he was allotted for hitting??? Think about that. He would need to be Ricky Henderson stealing 130 bases to someone obtain half the value running bases as did batting.
As far as D, Carp is not a GG but he did record 67 more outs for the year than Heyward, so a 25 point difference for fielding between the two is laughable when for the entire season Carp’s very Good offensive year only garnered him +30.6. Again the real world baseball field action value attribution is way out of whack….

Batting runs 2015:
Carpenter +30.6 (+28 BBR)
Heyward +15 (+14 BBR)


Base running runs 2015:
Carpenter +1.3 (-1 BBR)
Heyward +7.2 (+6 BBR)


Offense runs 2015:
Carpenter +31.9
Heyward +22.2


Fielding runs 2015:
Carpenter -4.8 (-3 BBR)
Heyward +17.4 (+28 BBR)

Again, the batting runs and base running runs aren't total runs created, they are runs above average. The total number of runs created by hitting is much higher than with base running but Heyward separated himself from the pack (and Carpenter) by 7 runs or so in a much smaller category.

Total bases:
Carpenter - 290
Heyward - 240

Over a full season (with an advantage of an extra 55 PAs, 27 ABs) Carpenter managed a whole 50 more bases from hitting. As you mentioned Heyward stole 19 more bases (that's 40% of that gap). Another poster mentioned Heyward took an extra base 57% of the time vs. 44% for Carpenter and made three fewer outs on the bases. Making an out is a big deal, it removes a runner from base entirely (in addition to making an out). I don't think it's hard to see how Heyward probably created extra value through base running (he already is at 19 just looking at steals, add in at least 3 for the extra outs).

I found the metrics on the outs. Carpenter made 4 at 3B, 4 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Heyward at 2 at 3B, 3 at 2B, and 1 at 1B. Not sure if they were doubled off on a line drive, or caught advancing, but that's two extra times Carpenter was out at 3B and one extra time at 2B than Heyward. Those hurt. Do you count being out at 3rd as three bases lost or two (could be on 2nd, unless doubled off 3rd)? Same with 2B, is that two bases lost or one? That could be as many as eight bases lost, or minimum of five, we're cutting into that total bases gap even more.

I would take carp who scored more runs hit more home runs drove in more runs and got on base more over Heyward I prefer actual runs being scored in games that actually win games.

It's a fair... or at least fair-ish point. I'm going to provide an example from a single year, though, that challenges that train of thought.

Player A - 34 HR, 133 RBI, 104 Runs, 6 SB, 321 total bases in 151 games
Player B - 26 HR, 84 RBI, 97 Runs, 24 SB, 286 total bases in 162 games

Your train of thought leads you to Player A, right?

Goldfan / Melville, agree or disagree?

Not necessarily, if A is 1b and B is GG SS

So you're going against your Heyward / Carpenter position already?

Both players are outfielders

Is it the reading or comprehension you lack? Heyward/Carp isn’t a SS v 1b. I believe that 3b is more difficult position and as I’ve said repeatedly Carp was responsible for about 67 more outs over the course of the season and I doubt all the “magic” by Heyward in RF, when most of his PO were relatively easy fly ball catches, made up for overtaking a more difficult position while being involved in more CH and PO while having much better offensive numbers…..is that easy enough to comprehend? And directly from RBI, one gives much more credit to D than the other……which is funny because it’s the same outcome……

Cool, you dispute the value of defense. Fine.

Two outfielders, Player A and Player B. Player A has more HR / RBI / Runs / Total Bases (all in less games). Which one are you taking? If you won't answer, why won't you answer?