Going to WAR...for Classic0

[Futuregm2]

"What do you guys....think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?"

Doesn't seem this was answered?

I’ve answered this ClassicO question in another thread……
Use real offensive stats and whatever D metric you wish and perhaps watch the guy PLAY
I’d argue if this ONE stat(WAR) is the only thing that a FO looks at to assess a player then they should be immediately fired and when they ultimately need to review all the other stats anyway to get a complete picture then whats the point?
Lazy, entitled, and ignorant to think ONE number with a decimal point between 0-10, 11, 12 whatever can value a player.
Sorry, I guess it prints negative numbers as well

The bold quote from you is an exaggeration and a dramatic statement. There is not one player personnel employee in MLB who uses solely WAR as a decision maker on a said player. No need to be dramatic to try and make a point.

Several have written here that it’s the main metric used by FO’s to value players/contracts. And if those FO types have to take a deep dive into the actual statistics after looking at the WAR number to figure out what the player IS GOOD AT….what’s the point of WAR?

Correct.
Case in point.
Fedde had a fictional, subjective, assigned WAR of 5.6 last year.
What if he had entered the market last October as a fully healthy 31 year old FA starting pitcher?
Would WAR have answered the question, to your excellent point, of how large of a contract a team would have signed him to?
Or would relying on the fictional, subjective, assigned WAR of 5.6 last year resulted in a contract the signing team would be regretting today?
The answer is obvious.
Relying on WAR would have produces a terrible decision, because it ignores all the realities of the game.
Curious that no matter how many time the deep and self-evident flaws of WAR are exposed, folks double down on it being reliable as a means to prove comparative value.
It does no such thing.

They would have taken into context that beyond the 5.6 WAR that Fedde had last year he had a career WAR of 0.3 the rest of his career. Thus a team wouldn’t have given him what a consistent 5 WAR pitcher would get.

[Melville]

"What do you guys....think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?"

Doesn't seem this was answered?

I’ve answered this ClassicO question in another thread……
Use real offensive stats and whatever D metric you wish and perhaps watch the guy PLAY
I’d argue if this ONE stat(WAR) is the only thing that a FO looks at to assess a player then they should be immediately fired and when they ultimately need to review all the other stats anyway to get a complete picture then whats the point?
Lazy, entitled, and ignorant to think ONE number with a decimal point between 0-10, 11, 12 whatever can value a player.
Sorry, I guess it prints negative numbers as well

The bold quote from you is an exaggeration and a dramatic statement. There is not one player personnel employee in MLB who uses solely WAR as a decision maker on a said player. No need to be dramatic to try and make a point.

Several have written here that it’s the main metric used by FO’s to value players/contracts. And if those FO types have to take a deep dive into the actual statistics after looking at the WAR number to figure out what the player IS GOOD AT….what’s the point of WAR?

You're a GM or POBO, and you have $30M to spend this off-season. Should you sign an ace pitcher? A corner OF with a big bat? A GG SS that is a terror on the bases? WAR helps answer that. Exact same thing with trades. Same thing with allocating playing time (which players give us the best chance to win over the course of a season). To make any of those decisions you ultimately have to decide if something is fair, or close enough, value or which option is better so you can make a choice. You don't make those choices by having 5-10 metrics you're looking at on each side (5-10 different metrics perhaps if debating between a pitcher and position player), you have to distill it down to a single value or inequality to make your choice.

"You're a GM or POBO, and you have $30M to spend this off-season. Should you sign an ace pitcher? A corner OF with a big bat? A GG SS that is a terror on the bases? WAR helps answer that. Exact same thing with trades."
Actually WAR addresses none of that.
Here is what does.
What pitchers do you have under contract for next season?
Who on your current roster appears ready to take on a bigger role?
Do you even need a corner outfielder with a big bat - or are you well enough set at that position to shift your focus elsewhere?
Do you have a SS - and if he is "glove first" or "bat first", how does that fit with the rest of your roster?
How does he fit with your pitching staff and pitching philosophy?
Do you have an injured player who is expected back full-strength next year?
Do you have a high end prospect you expect to see graduate to MLB next season?
Who stepped forward this year - and is that an anomaly or the beginning of a long term productive run?
Who on your roster will be in a FA year next season?
Again, and this is the key point:
A properly constructed roster is much more than the sum of the individual parts.
Like a symphony, it is all about how the parts are balanced and fit together.
WAR, being a complete fiction, addresses none of that.
WAR displays a fundamentally flawed understanding of the game.
One last note.
Fedde had a fictional, subjective, assigned WAR of 5.6 last year.
What if he had entered the market last October as a fully healthy 31 year old FA starting pitcher?
Would WAR have answered the question, as you claimed, of how large of a contract a team would have signed him to?
Or would relying on the fictional, subjective, assigned WAR of 5.6 last year resulted in a contract the signing team would be regretting today?
The answer is obvious.
Game.
Set.
Match.

WAR can tell you which of the options adds the most value. Then within the context of your roster you can see which option adds the most marginal value, which is really what you are buying in FA. I didn't think I needed to spell out that these decisions would be made within the broader context of the team's roster and organizational depth.

Obviously, it's your time to spend as you see fit, RBI, but just know you are trying to reason with someone who operates entirely in bad faith.

I see that you have abandoned any attempt to discuss the topic at hand with reasoning.
Given the way in which WAR has been discredited in this conversation, probably a good choice.
However, turning instead to insults merely reveals your character, which is un regrettable choice.

[Horseradish]

OP was a pathetic non-answer and not surprising at all given the source.

It was a perfect answer.
Entirely inevitable, considering the source.

You saying it was a perfect answer doesn’t make it so. It really just makes you look that much more disingenuous and intellectually dishonest, but that’s what one should expect from a narcissist.

[ClassicO]

Melville’s “symphony” is the worst sounding music ever heard by mortal men.
Because he doesn’t have metrics - and never mentions them - for. determining the best musicians to have play.
He uses platitudes about baseball in general (apple pie) and fails to consider who are the most valuable to the symphony as a whole.

He still refuses to state his own metric(s) for player value - as compared to other players. He’s a joke.

WAR is one out of many tools to determine value, but it’s far less of a fiction than Melville’s supposed job as a performance coach!

[Melville]

"What do you guys....think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?"

Doesn't seem this was answered?

I’ve answered this ClassicO question in another thread……
Use real offensive stats and whatever D metric you wish and perhaps watch the guy PLAY
I’d argue if this ONE stat(WAR) is the only thing that a FO looks at to assess a player then they should be immediately fired and when they ultimately need to review all the other stats anyway to get a complete picture then whats the point?
Lazy, entitled, and ignorant to think ONE number with a decimal point between 0-10, 11, 12 whatever can value a player.
Sorry, I guess it prints negative numbers as well

The bold quote from you is an exaggeration and a dramatic statement. There is not one player personnel employee in MLB who uses solely WAR as a decision maker on a said player. No need to be dramatic to try and make a point.

Several have written here that it’s the main metric used by FO’s to value players/contracts. And if those FO types have to take a deep dive into the actual statistics after looking at the WAR number to figure out what the player IS GOOD AT….what’s the point of WAR?

Correct.
Case in point.
Fedde had a fictional, subjective, assigned WAR of 5.6 last year.
What if he had entered the market last October as a fully healthy 31 year old FA starting pitcher?
Would WAR have answered the question, to your excellent point, of how large of a contract a team would have signed him to?
Or would relying on the fictional, subjective, assigned WAR of 5.6 last year resulted in a contract the signing team would be regretting today?
The answer is obvious.
Relying on WAR would have produces a terrible decision, because it ignores all the realities of the game.
Curious that no matter how many time the deep and self-evident flaws of WAR are exposed, folks double down on it being reliable as a means to prove comparative value.
It does no such thing.

They would have taken into context that beyond the 5.6 WAR that Fedde had last year he had a career WAR of 0.3 the rest of his career. Thus a team wouldn’t have given him what a consistent 5 WAR pitcher would get.

You are dodging and I understand why.
Would the top bidder have made the right choice, or would they have overpaid?
We both know the answer to that.

[Melville]

Well, the nature of recent posts is certainly proof positive of just who has proven to possess the better argument.
The WAR proponents are obviously losing the WAR war - and are in surrender mode as evidence by their behavior.
Regrettable.

[Futuregm2]

"What do you guys....think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?"

Doesn't seem this was answered?

I’ve answered this ClassicO question in another thread……
Use real offensive stats and whatever D metric you wish and perhaps watch the guy PLAY
I’d argue if this ONE stat(WAR) is the only thing that a FO looks at to assess a player then they should be immediately fired and when they ultimately need to review all the other stats anyway to get a complete picture then whats the point?
Lazy, entitled, and ignorant to think ONE number with a decimal point between 0-10, 11, 12 whatever can value a player.
Sorry, I guess it prints negative numbers as well

The bold quote from you is an exaggeration and a dramatic statement. There is not one player personnel employee in MLB who uses solely WAR as a decision maker on a said player. No need to be dramatic to try and make a point.

Several have written here that it’s the main metric used by FO’s to value players/contracts. And if those FO types have to take a deep dive into the actual statistics after looking at the WAR number to figure out what the player IS GOOD AT….what’s the point of WAR?

Correct.
Case in point.
Fedde had a fictional, subjective, assigned WAR of 5.6 last year.
What if he had entered the market last October as a fully healthy 31 year old FA starting pitcher?
Would WAR have answered the question, to your excellent point, of how large of a contract a team would have signed him to?
Or would relying on the fictional, subjective, assigned WAR of 5.6 last year resulted in a contract the signing team would be regretting today?
The answer is obvious.
Relying on WAR would have produces a terrible decision, because it ignores all the realities of the game.
Curious that no matter how many time the deep and self-evident flaws of WAR are exposed, folks double down on it being reliable as a means to prove comparative value.
It does no such thing.

They would have taken into context that beyond the 5.6 WAR that Fedde had last year he had a career WAR of 0.3 the rest of his career. Thus a team wouldn’t have given him what a consistent 5 WAR pitcher would get.

You are dodging and I understand why.
Would the top bidder have made the right choice, or would they have overpaid?
We both know the answer to that.

We don’t even know what the price would have been, so you’re asking a question with no way to answer.

[ClassicO]

I asked ChatBox AI - one of the best AI frameworks:

“What is the best tool for determining a baseball players total value compared to others?

One of the best tools for determining a baseball player's total value compared to others is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR provides a comprehensive metric that quantifies a player's overall contributions to their team over a season, considering both offensive and defensive aspects.

Another valuable tool is Baseball Reference or FanGraphs, which offer various advanced statistics, player comparisons, and analysis tools. Both platforms present in-depth data that can help assess a player's value in the context of their peers.”

[Melville]

"What do you guys....think is the best statistic (or more) you guys argue that gives the best estimate of a total player worth, since that is what we are looking for when comparing players?"

Doesn't seem this was answered?

I’ve answered this ClassicO question in another thread……
Use real offensive stats and whatever D metric you wish and perhaps watch the guy PLAY
I’d argue if this ONE stat(WAR) is the only thing that a FO looks at to assess a player then they should be immediately fired and when they ultimately need to review all the other stats anyway to get a complete picture then whats the point?
Lazy, entitled, and ignorant to think ONE number with a decimal point between 0-10, 11, 12 whatever can value a player.
Sorry, I guess it prints negative numbers as well

The bold quote from you is an exaggeration and a dramatic statement. There is not one player personnel employee in MLB who uses solely WAR as a decision maker on a said player. No need to be dramatic to try and make a point.

Several have written here that it’s the main metric used by FO’s to value players/contracts. And if those FO types have to take a deep dive into the actual statistics after looking at the WAR number to figure out what the player IS GOOD AT….what’s the point of WAR?

Correct.
Case in point.
Fedde had a fictional, subjective, assigned WAR of 5.6 last year.
What if he had entered the market last October as a fully healthy 31 year old FA starting pitcher?
Would WAR have answered the question, to your excellent point, of how large of a contract a team would have signed him to?
Or would relying on the fictional, subjective, assigned WAR of 5.6 last year resulted in a contract the signing team would be regretting today?
The answer is obvious.
Relying on WAR would have produces a terrible decision, because it ignores all the realities of the game.
Curious that no matter how many time the deep and self-evident flaws of WAR are exposed, folks double down on it being reliable as a means to prove comparative value.
It does no such thing.

They would have taken into context that beyond the 5.6 WAR that Fedde had last year he had a career WAR of 0.3 the rest of his career. Thus a team wouldn’t have given him what a consistent 5 WAR pitcher would get.

You are dodging and I understand why.
Would the top bidder have made the right choice, or would they have overpaid?
We both know the answer to that.

We don’t even know what the price would have been, so you’re asking a question with no way to answer.

You are dodging and I understand why.
Would the top bidder have made the right choice, or would they have overpaid?
We both know the answer to that.
Curious that someone trying to prop up WAR would use the phrase "no way to answer" - which is of course the fundamental mistaken premise of WAR to begin with.

[An Old Friend]

Incorrect at face value.
How much dollar value would WAR have assigned to Fedde on the FA market last year?
Obviously, the fictional and ridiculous 5.8 number subjectively assigned to him would have done the EXACT OPPOSITE of "telling you which option adds the most value".

When your main counterpoint is repeatedly something that didn't happen, you know you have no argument.

[An Old Friend]

You are dodging and I understand why.
Would the top bidder have made the right choice, or would they have overpaid?
We both know the answer to that.
Curious that someone trying to prop up WAR would use the phrase "no way to answer" - which is of course the fundamental mistaken premise of WAR to begin with.

The free agency market itself leads to inefficiency and overpays that has nothing to do with Fedde or one player's one season WAR.

[Quincy Varnish]

Incorrect at face value.
How much dollar value would WAR have assigned to Fedde on the FA market last year?
Obviously, the fictional and ridiculous 5.8 number subjectively assigned to him would have done the EXACT OPPOSITE of "telling you which option adds the most value".

When your main counterpoint is repeatedly something that didn't happen, you know you have no argument.

You might say it’s not a point, or argument.

Is Melville really a poster?

[NYCardsFan]

You are dodging and I understand why.
Would the top bidder have made the right choice, or would they have overpaid?
We both know the answer to that.
Curious that someone trying to prop up WAR would use the phrase "no way to answer" - which is of course the fundamental mistaken premise of WAR to begin with.

The free agency market itself leads to inefficiency and overpays that has nothing to do with Fedde or one player's one season WAR.

Wait, you mean a market structure intentionally conceived by Marvin Miller to limit the annual supply of talent to a series of private-value auctions, thereby maximizing price (player surplus), isn’t concrete evidence of the failure of WAR? Go figure.

[An Old Friend]

Incorrect at face value.
How much dollar value would WAR have assigned to Fedde on the FA market last year?
Obviously, the fictional and ridiculous 5.8 number subjectively assigned to him would have done the EXACT OPPOSITE of "telling you which option adds the most value".

When your main counterpoint is repeatedly something that didn't happen, you know you have no argument.

You might say it’s not a point, or argument.

Is Melville really a poster?

You just don't understand the symphonic beauty of baseball, Quincy. You don't even need to know how valuable players are. Standings tell you everything you need to know.

[An Old Friend]

You are dodging and I understand why.
Would the top bidder have made the right choice, or would they have overpaid?
We both know the answer to that.
Curious that someone trying to prop up WAR would use the phrase "no way to answer" - which is of course the fundamental mistaken premise of WAR to begin with.

The free agency market itself leads to inefficiency and overpays that has nothing to do with Fedde or one player's one season WAR.

Wait, you mean a market structure intentionally conceived by Marvin Miller to limit the annual supply of talent to a series of private-value auctions, thereby maximizing price (player surplus), isn’t concrete evidence of the failure of WAR? Go figure.

Precisely.

[Cusecards]

Melville’s “symphony” is the worst sounding music ever heard by mortal men.
Because he doesn’t have metrics - and never mentions them - for. determining the best musicians to have play.
He uses platitudes about baseball in general (apple pie) and fails to consider who are the most valuable to the symphony as a whole.

He still refuses to state his own metric(s) for player value - as compared to other players. He’s a joke.

WAR is one out of many tools to determine value, but it’s far less of a fiction than Melville’s supposed job as a performance coach!

He’s a narcissist and complete hypocrite.
But hey....it’s an anonymous forum so no harm.
As for performance coach?
I wouldn’t trust him to manage a goldfish tank that had more than one fish.
Much less a group of trainees.