CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

[An Old Friend]

I’ll have to check out the projections for my two stashes - Noelvi Marte & James Wood - and see how closely they track.

Preseason projections:
Noelvi Marte - .265 AVG, .750 OPS, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 7 SB
James Wood - .227 AVG, .699 OPS, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 3 SB

Matt, safe to say any optimism I have over these projections is unwarranted in your opinion?

[mattmitchl44]

I’ll have to check out the projections for my two stashes - Noelvi Marte & James Wood - and see how closely they track.

Preseason projections:
Noelvi Marte - .265 AVG, .750 OPS, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 7 SB
James Wood - .227 AVG, .699 OPS, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 3 SB

Matt, safe to say any optimism I have over these projections is unwarranted in your opinion?

Current FP projections:

Marte - .261 BA, .730 OPS, 5 HR, 20 R, 20 RBI, 5 SB
Wood - .244 BA, .733 OPS, 4 HR, 14 R, 14 RBI, 3 SB

Current Yahoo projections:

Marte - .276 BA, .800 OPS, 6 HR, 26 R, 23 RBI, 8 SB
Wood - zeros

Coming off a PED suspension, I could see why predictions for Marte could be cautious.

I'm not going to say anything is "unwarranted." FP and Yahoo are both just uncertain predictions of the future.

[An Old Friend]

Fantasy Pros - Projected Order of Finish

1 - What - 136.5 (currently #2 - 132.5)
2 - AOF - 136 (currently #1 - 137)
3 - MM - 127 (currently #4 - 116)
4 - QV - 112.5 (currently #3 - 127)
5 - Boo - 112 (currently #5 - 114.5)
6 - CPC - 98 (currently #6 - 108)
7 - sdal - 94.5 (currently t#8 - 88)
8 - DJ - 90 (currently #10 - 82.5)
9 - Sam - 89 (currently #11 - 80.5)
10 - CRMT - 87 (currently #12 - 77.5)
11 - Jeff - 83 (currently t#8 - 88)
12 - Daze - 78 (currently #13 - 73.5)
13 - BL - 70.5 (currently #7 - 94.5)
14 - ima - 67.5 (currently #14 - 67)
15 - gg - 58.5 (currently #15 - 53.5)

lol… maybe we need a side bet

Looks like a 3 man race

Who are you ruling out? Current standings in a little easier to read format:

1. An Old Friend - 137
2. Whatashame - 132.5
3. Quincy Varnish - 127
4. MattMitchell44 - 116
5. Booooyah - 114.5
6. Cool Papa Con - 108
7. Barking Lion - 94.5
8. sdaltons - 88
8. Jeffy25 - 88
10. DJ Davis - 82.5
11. SamTheMan - 80.5
12. Cardsrmyteam - 77.5 (recently took over, formerly run into the ground by Cardinals4Life)
13. Dazepster - 73.5
14. imadamnman - 67
15. ggnoobs - 53.5

[An Old Friend]

I’ll have to check out the projections for my two stashes - Noelvi Marte & James Wood - and see how closely they track.

Preseason projections:
Noelvi Marte - .265 AVG, .750 OPS, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 7 SB
James Wood - .227 AVG, .699 OPS, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 3 SB

Matt, safe to say any optimism I have over these projections is unwarranted in your opinion?

Current FP projections:

Marte - .261 BA, .730 OPS, 5 HR, 20 R, 20 RBI, 5 SB
Wood - .244 BA, .733 OPS, 4 HR, 14 R, 14 RBI, 3 SB

Current Yahoo projections:

Marte - .276 BA, .800 OPS, 6 HR, 26 R, 23 RBI, 8 SB
Wood - zeros

I'm going to take the over on both FP projections.

I'm hoping for my counting numbers from Marte than that Yahoo projection.

And I'm DEFINITELY taking the over on Wood's Yahoo zeros

[Goldfan]

Fantasy Pros - Projected Order of Finish

1 - What - 136.5 (currently #2 - 132.5)
2 - AOF - 136 (currently #1 - 137)
3 - MM - 127 (currently #4 - 116)
4 - QV - 112.5 (currently #3 - 127)
5 - Boo - 112 (currently #5 - 114.5)
6 - CPC - 98 (currently #6 - 108)
7 - sdal - 94.5 (currently t#8 - 88)
8 - DJ - 90 (currently #10 - 82.5)
9 - Sam - 89 (currently #11 - 80.5)
10 - CRMT - 87 (currently #12 - 77.5)
11 - Jeff - 83 (currently t#8 - 88)
12 - Daze - 78 (currently #13 - 73.5)
13 - BL - 70.5 (currently #7 - 94.5)
14 - ima - 67.5 (currently #14 - 67)
15 - gg - 58.5 (currently #15 - 53.5)

lol… maybe we need a side bet

Looks like a 3 man race

Who are you ruling out? Current standings in a little easier to read format:

1. An Old Friend - 137
2. Whatashame - 132.5
3. Quincy Varnish - 127
4. MattMitchell44 - 116
5. Booooyah - 114.5
6. Cool Papa Con - 108
7. Barking Lion - 94.5
8. sdaltons - 88
8. Jeffy25 - 88
10. DJ Davis - 82.5
11. SamTheMan - 80.5
12. Cardsrmyteam - 77.5 (recently took over, formerly run into the ground by Cardinals4Life)
13. Dazepster - 73.5
14. imadamnman - 67
15. ggnoobs - 53.5

Have you seen Jeffy post in this thread.? Haven’t seen him in CT for awhile

[mattmitchl44]

I’ll have to check out the projections for my two stashes - Noelvi Marte & James Wood - and see how closely they track.

Preseason projections:
Noelvi Marte - .265 AVG, .750 OPS, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 7 SB
James Wood - .227 AVG, .699 OPS, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 3 SB

Matt, safe to say any optimism I have over these projections is unwarranted in your opinion?

Current FP projections:

Marte - .261 BA, .730 OPS, 5 HR, 20 R, 20 RBI, 5 SB
Wood - .244 BA, .733 OPS, 4 HR, 14 R, 14 RBI, 3 SB

Current Yahoo projections:

Marte - .276 BA, .800 OPS, 6 HR, 26 R, 23 RBI, 8 SB
Wood - zeros

I'm going to take the over on both FP projections.

I'm hoping for my counting numbers from Marte than that Yahoo projection.

And I'm DEFINITELY taking the over on Wood's Yahoo zeros

Kind of hard to figure out what the Nationals think they are doing with Wood. I picked him up early in the season thinking that if Washington was going to bring him up at all, it would be early to get him a full rookie year, maybe win ROY, and get a draft pick for it. Bringing him up now that they've gone 3-7 and are dropping behind in the WC is a bit odd, IMO.

[Quincy Varnish]

Fantasy Pros - Projected Order of Finish

1 - What - 136.5 (currently #2 - 132.5)
2 - AOF - 136 (currently #1 - 137)
3 - MM - 127 (currently #4 - 116)
4 - QV - 112.5 (currently #3 - 127)
5 - Boo - 112 (currently #5 - 114.5)
6 - CPC - 98 (currently #6 - 108)
7 - sdal - 94.5 (currently t#8 - 88)
8 - DJ - 90 (currently #10 - 82.5)
9 - Sam - 89 (currently #11 - 80.5)
10 - CRMT - 87 (currently #12 - 77.5)
11 - Jeff - 83 (currently t#8 - 88)
12 - Daze - 78 (currently #13 - 73.5)
13 - BL - 70.5 (currently #7 - 94.5)
14 - ima - 67.5 (currently #14 - 67)
15 - gg - 58.5 (currently #15 - 53.5)

lol… maybe we need a side bet

Looks like a 3 man race

Ya, it isn’t. His FP projections have been wrong to the point of comedy all season.

[Quincy Varnish]

Fantasy Pros - Projected Order of Finish

1 - What - 136.5 (currently #2 - 132.5)
2 - AOF - 136 (currently #1 - 137)
3 - MM - 127 (currently #4 - 116)
4 - QV - 112.5 (currently #3 - 127)
5 - Boo - 112 (currently #5 - 114.5)
6 - CPC - 98 (currently #6 - 108)
7 - sdal - 94.5 (currently t#8 - 88)
8 - DJ - 90 (currently #10 - 82.5)
9 - Sam - 89 (currently #11 - 80.5)
10 - CRMT - 87 (currently #12 - 77.5)
11 - Jeff - 83 (currently t#8 - 88)
12 - Daze - 78 (currently #13 - 73.5)
13 - BL - 70.5 (currently #7 - 94.5)
14 - ima - 67.5 (currently #14 - 67)
15 - gg - 58.5 (currently #15 - 53.5)

lol… maybe we need a side bet

It is definitely not sold on your pitching menagerie. Yahoo ROS rankings

Stanek - 312
Chapman - 382
Smith - 607
Barlow - 318
Tonkin - 369
Knack - 526
Garcia - 329
Kershaw - 407

Pretty dumb to isolate my bullpen and two pitchers on the IL + Knack who’s basically just a placeholder. I’d put my top-5 SP against anyone’s, and you can bet I’ll be fortifying my BP.

I add Logan Webb, Berrios and Pivetta and somehow you have me losing about a dozen points in pitching? Ridiculous. Even FP’s ROS projections have me #1 in ERA and #3 in WHIP. I’ll be gaining points in pitching, not losing them FFS.

[mattmitchl44]

Well, the obvious disclaimer is always that the FP projections are based on who is currently on your roster. It can't predict what moves one might make going forward. So the predictions are always likely to be off from the actual outcomes.

[mattmitchl44]

Fantasy Pros - Projected Order of Finish

1 - What - 136.5 (currently #2 - 132.5)
2 - AOF - 136 (currently #1 - 137)
3 - MM - 127 (currently #4 - 116)
4 - QV - 112.5 (currently #3 - 127)
5 - Boo - 112 (currently #5 - 114.5)
6 - CPC - 98 (currently #6 - 108)
7 - sdal - 94.5 (currently t#8 - 88)
8 - DJ - 90 (currently #10 - 82.5)
9 - Sam - 89 (currently #11 - 80.5)
10 - CRMT - 87 (currently #12 - 77.5)
11 - Jeff - 83 (currently t#8 - 88)
12 - Daze - 78 (currently #13 - 73.5)
13 - BL - 70.5 (currently #7 - 94.5)
14 - ima - 67.5 (currently #14 - 67)
15 - gg - 58.5 (currently #15 - 53.5)

lol… maybe we need a side bet

It is definitely not sold on your pitching menagerie. Yahoo ROS rankings

Stanek - 312
Chapman - 382
Smith - 607
Barlow - 318
Tonkin - 369
Knack - 526
Garcia - 329
Kershaw - 407

Pretty dumb to isolate my bullpen and two pitchers on the IL + Knack who’s basically just a placeholder. I’d put my top-5 SP against anyone’s, and you can bet I’ll be fortifying my BP.

I add Logan Webb, Berrios and Pivetta and somehow you have me losing about a dozen points in pitching? Ridiculous. Even FP’s ROS projections have me #1 in ERA and #3 in WHIP. I’ll be gaining points in pitching, not losing them FFS.

Basically, it appears to be saying that it likes the quality of your top end SP (it has you gaining on the field in ERA (from 8 pts. now to 10) and WHIP (from 6 pts now to 10.5) for the rest of season), but doesn't think you have enough of it (it has you fading in wins (9 to 6.5), QS (10 to 7), and K (10 to 4.5)), and it pretty much has you tanking in saves (10 to 3).

That said, the margins are small. 3 more wins would move you up 2.5 pts., 24 more Ks would move you up 4.5 pts., etc.

[An Old Friend]

I’d put my top-5 SP against anyone’s

Current overall rankings (SP ranking in parentheses):

An Old Friend
11 - Tarik Skubal (3)
13 - Zack Wheeler (5)
16 - Tanner Houck (8)
37 - Reynaldo Lopez (16)
42 - Cole Ragans (18)

Quincy Varnish
36 - Joe Ryan (15)
56 - Jose Berrios (24)
60 - Logan Webb (27)

Safe to assume you're counting zero wins on the season Justin Steele in the top 5? Who is the 5th?

[Quincy Varnish]

Basically, it appears to be saying that it likes the quality of your top end SP (it has you gaining on the field in ERA (from 8 pts. now to 10) and WHIP (from 6 pts now to 10.5) for the rest of season), but doesn't think you have enough of it (it has you fading in wins (9 to 6.5), QS (10 to 7), and K (10 to 4.5)), and it pretty much has you tanking in saves (10 to 3).

That said, the margins are small. 3 more wins would move you up 2.5 pts., 24 more Ks would move you up 4.5 pts., etc.

Their projections for my Saves make sense, but the QS and W do not.

If everyone stays on track, barring further injury, I’ll finish the season with…

Clayton Kershaw
Jacob deGrom
Joe Ryan
Logan Webb
Justin Steele
Jose Berrios
Nick Pivetta

I don’t think even AOF and his pack of waiver wire weirdos can touch that. He’ll still top me in K/9, sure…

[Quincy Varnish]

I’d put my top-5 SP against anyone’s

Current overall rankings (SP ranking in parentheses):

An Old Friend
11 - Tarik Skubal (3)
13 - Zack Wheeler (5)
16 - Tanner Houck (8)
37 - Reynaldo Lopez (16)
42 - Cole Ragans (18)

Quincy Varnish
36 - Joe Ryan (15)
56 - Jose Berrios (24)
60 - Logan Webb (27)

Safe to assume you're counting zero wins on the season Justin Steele in the top 5? Who is the 5th?

You can’t really expect Reynaldo and Houck to continue this insanity, can you?

[mattmitchl44]

Basically, it appears to be saying that it likes the quality of your top end SP (it has you gaining on the field in ERA (from 8 pts. now to 10) and WHIP (from 6 pts now to 10.5) for the rest of season), but doesn't think you have enough of it (it has you fading in wins (9 to 6.5), QS (10 to 7), and K (10 to 4.5)), and it pretty much has you tanking in saves (10 to 3).

That said, the margins are small. 3 more wins would move you up 2.5 pts., 24 more Ks would move you up 4.5 pts., etc.

Their projections for my Saves make sense, but the QS and W do not.

If everyone stays on track, barring further injury, I’ll finish the season with…

Clayton Kershaw
Jacob deGrom
Joe Ryan
Logan Webb
Justin Steele
Jose Berrios
Nick Pivetta

I don’t think even AOF and his pack of waiver wire weirdos can touch that. He’ll still top me in K/9, sure…

It has Kershaw with 4 QS and 3 wins (40 IP), and deGrom with only 2 QS and 1 win (20 IP).

[An Old Friend]

I’d put my top-5 SP against anyone’s

Current overall rankings (SP ranking in parentheses):

An Old Friend
11 - Tarik Skubal (3)
13 - Zack Wheeler (5)
16 - Tanner Houck (8)
37 - Reynaldo Lopez (16)
42 - Cole Ragans (18)

Quincy Varnish
36 - Joe Ryan (15)
56 - Jose Berrios (24)
60 - Logan Webb (27)

Safe to assume you're counting zero wins on the season Justin Steele in the top 5? Who is the 5th?

You can’t really expect Reynaldo and Houck to continue this insanity, can you?

I mean... I anticipate some regression from both, but not much from Houck. He's not giving up any HR so at some point I'd expect a few fly balls to leave the yard. Houck is a pedigreed first round pick heading into his prime who has shown plus command for a long time while never being home run prone. I think he finishes as a top-10 pitcher or really close to it.

Nothing in Lopez's underlying numbers suggest that major regression is coming.

As to yours... deGrom just threw off a mound last week so he's probably two months out, and he's not going to provide any length. What are you expecting from Kershaw? They're going to be crazy careful with him and they just shut down his rehab.

[mattmitchl44]

As to yours... deGrom just threw off a mound last week so he's probably two months out, and he's not going to provide any length. What are you expecting from Kershaw? They're going to be crazy careful with him and they just shut down his rehab.

Yeah, with Texas 8 games back in the WC, you wonder if there will be any point at all for deGrom to take the mound this season (he's still got a guaranteed contract through 2027).

And the Dodgers won't need Kershaw in the regular season to make the playoffs. They may just focus on him being ready to give them 4 inning starts or so in the playoffs. They can shut him down until August, send him on a minor league rehab assignment, and bring him up for 3-4 short starts in September to knock the remaining rust off.