It's Time, Oli - Swap Herrera and Arenado

[PadsFS07]

The point of this thread isn't that Nolan slumping so move him down in the order. The point is that this is who Nolan is right now. He's been trending this way for a few years. He is just not the three or four hitter right now. I'm not saying anything crazy or controversial, Nolan himself went to the manager and asked to be moved down in the order. I wonder why he did that?

No, Herrera is not hitting .400 anymore. No one expected him to. Who do you expect to be a more productive hitter this year? I would assume it's going to be Herrera, wouldn't you? If that's the case, don't you want your more productive hitters hitting in the middle of the lineup?

And yes, they will slump. Which is why you're really not hearing anyone currently talking about moving Contreras out of his spot. People realize that you still has the capability of being a middle of the order bat and that, while he is slumping right now, he still belongs where he is.

If that was the point of the thread, then why mention Herrera?

None of them are adequate "clean up hitters". I wouldn't have messed with a good thing. Now would be fine since we are playing .500 ball again. Arenado was 'hot' at the beginning of the year, now he's slumping. Then he will be hitting well again. Then back down. Has Contreras and Herrera passed him by? I don't know that either.

[renostl]

Also making it out to be Noot’s fault that we aren’t scoring runs in the 1st inning is silly.

He’s hitting .302/.464/.512 in the 1st inning while the team as a whole in the inning is hitting .233/.311/.329.

Noot has half of the Cardinals 1st inning HRs (2 of 4) and 1/3rd of our doubles (3 of 9). And more than half of the walks (13 of 24). While also only having 1/6.5th of the K’s (6 of 40).

Donovan on the other hand is hitting .244/.320/.289 in the 1st inning with 3 RBI and 1 run in 50 PAs.

Winn is also not doing well at .231/.286/.346 with 2 RBI and 4 runs in 28 PAs.

There might be an agenda with the 4th OFer.
The Cards would be very good if he was.

Lars has done, as you point out, well. The lineup lacks HRs.

[Futuregm2]

The point of this thread isn't that Nolan slumping so move him down in the order. The point is that this is who Nolan is right now. He's been trending this way for a few years. He is just not the three or four hitter right now. I'm not saying anything crazy or controversial, Nolan himself went to the manager and asked to be moved down in the order. I wonder why he did that?

No, Herrera is not hitting .400 anymore. No one expected him to. Who do you expect to be a more productive hitter this year? I would assume it's going to be Herrera, wouldn't you? If that's the case, don't you want your more productive hitters hitting in the middle of the lineup?

And yes, they will slump. Which is why you're really not hearing anyone currently talking about moving Contreras out of his spot. People realize that you still has the capability of being a middle of the order bat and that, while he is slumping right now, he still belongs where he is.

If that was the point of the thread, then why mention Herrera?

None of them are adequate "clean up hitters". I wouldn't have messed with a good thing. Now would be fine since we are playing .500 ball again. Arenado was 'hot' at the beginning of the year, now he's slumping. Then he will be hitting well again. Then back down. Has Contreras and Herrera passed him by? I don't know that either.

In the games that Nado has played since he has moved down in the lineup the team is 7-4. I think they are ok.

Nado was hot for about a week. He has been slumping ever since. Who he is now is at best a #6 hitter, probably a #7 hitter, and maybe even a guy that should really be on the bench like Evan Longoria became.

Nado
First 9 games: 1.006 OPS
April 8-May 1st: .619 OPS
May: .617 OPS
June 1st: 0 for 4


Contreras definitely has passed him by. Contreras has had a better OPS than Arenado for the past 3 seasons. Arenado had the 7th best OPS on the Cardinals in 2023, the 7th best OPS in 2024, and is currently 8th best on the team right now.

[renostl]

The point of this thread isn't that Nolan slumping so move him down in the order. The point is that this is who Nolan is right now. He's been trending this way for a few years. He is just not the three or four hitter right now. I'm not saying anything crazy or controversial, Nolan himself went to the manager and asked to be moved down in the order. I wonder why he did that?

No, Herrera is not hitting .400 anymore. No one expected him to. Who do you expect to be a more productive hitter this year? I would assume it's going to be Herrera, wouldn't you? If that's the case, don't you want your more productive hitters hitting in the middle of the lineup?

And yes, they will slump. Which is why you're really not hearing anyone currently talking about moving Contreras out of his spot. People realize that you still has the capability of being a middle of the order bat and that, while he is slumping right now, he still belongs where he is.

If that was the point of the thread, then why mention Herrera?

None of them are adequate "clean up hitters". I wouldn't have messed with a good thing. Now would be fine since we are playing .500 ball again. Arenado was 'hot' at the beginning of the year, now he's slumping. Then he will be hitting well again. Then back down. Has Contreras and Herrera passed him by? I don't know that either.

In the games that Nado has played since he has moved down in the lineup the team is 7-4. I think they are ok.

Nado was hot for about a week. He has been slumping ever since. Who he is now is at best a #6 hitter, probably a #7 hitter, and maybe even a guy that should really be on the bench like Evan Longoria became.

Nado
First 9 games: 1.006 OPS
April 8-May 1st: .619 OPS
May: .617 OPS
June 1st: 0 for 4


Contreras definitely has passed him by. Contreras has had a better OPS than Arenado for the past 3 seasons. Arenado had the 7th best OPS on the Cardinals in 2023, the 7th best OPS in 2024, and is currently 8th best on the team right now.

WC isn't doing his part either. .703 OPS the last 28 days is his better split.
His upside is probably better.

Of the lower OPS guys it's a
long runway vs upside vs glove dynamic, complicated by being in the wild card hunt.

Players under a .700 OPS include
WC, VS2, NA, PP, JW, NG

IMO, NA should be in a platoon rotation with the others because of that dynamic.
He might become less picky about a trade.

A team with low SLG can't overcome 2 plus holes in a lineup

[Melville]

I object. No I strenuously object. If they were losing I would say of course. Baseball players minds are very weird. Very superstitious people. It ain’t broke no need to fix it. Let it ride.

Yes, on superstitious but regarding the ‘if it ain’t broke don’t fix it ‘ .. last year can’t tell you how many times when Winn was surging and still batting 9th that I suggested hr should be moved up in order.
I got the same response..oh he is comfy at 9th so don’t move him. No
Pressure there just keep him there. Finally after Lord knows how long Winn was moved up.
Actually one could argue same thing happening with V. Scott..
Good avg. and top base stealer at 9th
Yes, Noot follows him in batting rotation but over course of 162 games , a team’s 9th batter gets over 100 less plate appearances than the No. 1,2, and 3 hitters in lineup. With 117 games remaining, Scott will get approximately 60- 65 LESS times at the plate.
Bet that means maybe 15 ? Or so less stolen bases and how many runs less ?
Can the Cards still win with Arenado at 4th and Scott buried at 9th? Sure. Buy one must also realize the Cards are sacrificing runs by doing so.

Can’t argue with you about Scott. That guy looks like the perfect leadoff hitter to me too. I would imagine he will be in the near future depending on how the rest of this year goes. I could see him leading off next year.

As I correctly analyzed and advised before the season began, Scott should be leading off right now.
Data proves it.
The team in 27th in MLB in scoring 1st inning runs.
The top 10 teams, on average, score twice as many 1st inning runs as STL does.
Makes zero sense to have the base clogging Mootbaar leading off.
Scott should hit #1, in front of Winn - putting 2 race horses at the top in front of RBI bats.
Mootbaar fits best at 9 - as I alone explained with perfection before the season began.
Data says I was right all along.

We are 27th in MLB in scoring 1st inning runs because we don’t hit HRs. Nootbaar leads our team with 8 HRs to this point. And he ranks tied for 66th right now in baseball in HRs.

Our club leading 8 HRs is tied with Colorado, Toronto, KC, and the White Sox for the lowest team leading HR total in baseball. Our middle of the order hitters are in the 6 range. Or worse. That is a BIG problem for the team. And has been for the past couple years at least.

Which, of course, proves my point.
Hunting a 1st inning HR is foolishness.
Scott and Winn at 1 and 2 provides the team with additional ways to score.
Mootbaar does not.
STL in 27th in first inning runs.
What they are doing is not working.
My approach would work - 100% guaranteed.
Remember, in ST when folks were projecting their "best lineup" choice, I was the ONLY person who said Winn-Burleson-Contreras at 2-3-4.
Everyone objected.
But, as we all now know, I was perfectly correct.
I am right about this as well (and yes, I did say Scott at 1, and Mootbaar at 9 back then).
And I am right now.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

[Futuregm2]

I object. No I strenuously object. If they were losing I would say of course. Baseball players minds are very weird. Very superstitious people. It ain’t broke no need to fix it. Let it ride.

Yes, on superstitious but regarding the ‘if it ain’t broke don’t fix it ‘ .. last year can’t tell you how many times when Winn was surging and still batting 9th that I suggested hr should be moved up in order.
I got the same response..oh he is comfy at 9th so don’t move him. No
Pressure there just keep him there. Finally after Lord knows how long Winn was moved up.
Actually one could argue same thing happening with V. Scott..
Good avg. and top base stealer at 9th
Yes, Noot follows him in batting rotation but over course of 162 games , a team’s 9th batter gets over 100 less plate appearances than the No. 1,2, and 3 hitters in lineup. With 117 games remaining, Scott will get approximately 60- 65 LESS times at the plate.
Bet that means maybe 15 ? Or so less stolen bases and how many runs less ?
Can the Cards still win with Arenado at 4th and Scott buried at 9th? Sure. Buy one must also realize the Cards are sacrificing runs by doing so.

Can’t argue with you about Scott. That guy looks like the perfect leadoff hitter to me too. I would imagine he will be in the near future depending on how the rest of this year goes. I could see him leading off next year.

As I correctly analyzed and advised before the season began, Scott should be leading off right now.
Data proves it.
The team in 27th in MLB in scoring 1st inning runs.
The top 10 teams, on average, score twice as many 1st inning runs as STL does.
Makes zero sense to have the base clogging Mootbaar leading off.
Scott should hit #1, in front of Winn - putting 2 race horses at the top in front of RBI bats.
Mootbaar fits best at 9 - as I alone explained with perfection before the season began.
Data says I was right all along.

We are 27th in MLB in scoring 1st inning runs because we don’t hit HRs. Nootbaar leads our team with 8 HRs to this point. And he ranks tied for 66th right now in baseball in HRs.

Our club leading 8 HRs is tied with Colorado, Toronto, KC, and the White Sox for the lowest team leading HR total in baseball. Our middle of the order hitters are in the 6 range. Or worse. That is a BIG problem for the team. And has been for the past couple years at least.

Which, of course, proves my point.
Hunting a 1st inning HR is foolishness.
Scott and Winn at 1 and 2 provides the team with additional ways to score.
Mootbaar does not.
STL in 27th in first inning runs.
What they are doing is not working.
My approach would work - 100% guaranteed.
Remember, in ST when folks were projecting their "best lineup" choice, I was the ONLY person who said Winn-Burleson-Contreras at 2-3-4.
Everyone objected.
But, as we all now know, I was perfectly correct.
I am right about this as well (and yes, I did say Scott at 1, and Mootbaar at 9 back then).
And I am right now.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

It’s amazing to watch you twist a hitter that is hitting .302 with a .464 OBP in the first inning into the problem for our lack of first inning production.

You are clueless, biased, and can’t admit when you’re wrong.

[bccardsfan]

I object. No I strenuously object. If they were losing I would say of course. Baseball players minds are very weird. Very superstitious people. It ain’t broke no need to fix it. Let it ride.

Yes, on superstitious but regarding the ‘if it ain’t broke don’t fix it ‘ .. last year can’t tell you how many times when Winn was surging and still batting 9th that I suggested hr should be moved up in order.
I got the same response..oh he is comfy at 9th so don’t move him. No
Pressure there just keep him there. Finally after Lord knows how long Winn was moved up.
Actually one could argue same thing happening with V. Scott..
Good avg. and top base stealer at 9th
Yes, Noot follows him in batting rotation but over course of 162 games , a team’s 9th batter gets over 100 less plate appearances than the No. 1,2, and 3 hitters in lineup. With 117 games remaining, Scott will get approximately 60- 65 LESS times at the plate.
Bet that means maybe 15 ? Or so less stolen bases and how many runs less ?
Can the Cards still win with Arenado at 4th and Scott buried at 9th? Sure. Buy one must also realize the Cards are sacrificing runs by doing so.

Can’t argue with you about Scott. That guy looks like the perfect leadoff hitter to me too. I would imagine he will be in the near future depending on how the rest of this year goes. I could see him leading off next year.

As I correctly analyzed and advised before the season began, Scott should be leading off right now.
Data proves it.
The team in 27th in MLB in scoring 1st inning runs.
The top 10 teams, on average, score twice as many 1st inning runs as STL does.
Makes zero sense to have the base clogging Mootbaar leading off.
Scott should hit #1, in front of Winn - putting 2 race horses at the top in front of RBI bats.
Mootbaar fits best at 9 - as I alone explained with perfection before the season began.
Data says I was right all along.

We are 27th in MLB in scoring 1st inning runs because we don’t hit HRs. Nootbaar leads our team with 8 HRs to this point. And he ranks tied for 66th right now in baseball in HRs.

Our club leading 8 HRs is tied with Colorado, Toronto, KC, and the White Sox for the lowest team leading HR total in baseball. Our middle of the order hitters are in the 6 range. Or worse. That is a BIG problem for the team. And has been for the past couple years at least.

Which, of course, proves my point.
Hunting a 1st inning HR is foolishness.
Scott and Winn at 1 and 2 provides the team with additional ways to score.
Mootbaar does not.
STL in 27th in first inning runs.
What they are doing is not working.
My approach would work - 100% guaranteed.
Remember, in ST when folks were projecting their "best lineup" choice, I was the ONLY person who said Winn-Burleson-Contreras at 2-3-4.
Everyone objected.
But, as we all now know, I was perfectly correct.
I am right about this as well (and yes, I did say Scott at 1, and Mootbaar at 9 back then).
And I am right now.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

It’s amazing to watch you twist a hitter that is hitting .302 with a .464 OBP in the first inning into the problem for our lack of first inning production.

You are clueless, biased, and can’t admit when you’re wrong.

This^ Easy. Obvious. Correct.
VSII has been scuffling as of late. If you were watching the games you would see that. Moving him up to lead off hitter right now and putting extra pressure on the kid would be ridiculous.

[PadsFS07]

In the games that Nado has played since he has moved down in the lineup the team is 7-4. I think they are ok.

What a neat stat. They were 10-1 in the 11 games before Contreras and Herrera were moved up. Comfortability plays a big role for hitters, whether yall want to admit it or not.

[PadsFS07]

On paper, I would think Burleson would be a good option in the 4/5 hole. But I don't know what you do with the L/R mix.

[sikeston bulldog2]

On paper, I would think Burleson would be a good option in the 4/5 hole. But I don't know what you do with the L/R mix.

The left right mix plays, but it’s not highest in my list of offense strategies.

[Ozziesfan41]

In the games that Nado has played since he has moved down in the lineup the team is 7-4. I think they are ok.

What a neat stat. They were 10-1 in the 11 games before Contreras and Herrera were moved up. Comfortability plays a big role for hitters, whether yall want to admit it or not.

Whether you want to admit it or not they are slumping which all players do not tanking because being moved in the lineup lol. Herrera is a career .297 .372 .832 OPS batting 4th and .273 .387 .955 OPS hitter batting 5th Contreras is a .318 .422 .940 career OPS hitter batting 4th. They are comfortable in those spots they are just in a slump both will come out of it. The fact that people think they would have never slumped if arenado kept batting 4th is beyond ridiculous they were never going to continue to win 10 of every 11 games if the lineup was never changed either that’s even more ridiculous

[PadsFS07]

In the games that Nado has played since he has moved down in the lineup the team is 7-4. I think they are ok.

What a neat stat. They were 10-1 in the 11 games before Contreras and Herrera were moved up. Comfortability plays a big role for hitters, whether yall want to admit it or not.

Whether you want to admit it or not they are slumping which all players do not tanking because being moved in the lineup lol. Herrera is a career .297 .372 .832 OPS batting 4th and .273 .387 .955 OPS hitter batting 5th Contreras is a .318 .422 .940 career OPS hitter batting 4th. They are comfortable in those spots they are just in a slump both will come out of it. The fact that people think they would have never slumped if arenado kept batting 4th is beyond ridiculous they were never going to continue to win 10 of every 11 games if the lineup was never changed either that’s even more ridiculous

I just don't like tinkering with [shirt] when you are on a massive winning streak.

[Ozziesfan41]

In the games that Nado has played since he has moved down in the lineup the team is 7-4. I think they are ok.

What a neat stat. They were 10-1 in the 11 games before Contreras and Herrera were moved up. Comfortability plays a big role for hitters, whether yall want to admit it or not.

Whether you want to admit it or not they are slumping which all players do not tanking because being moved in the lineup lol. Herrera is a career .297 .372 .832 OPS batting 4th and .273 .387 .955 OPS hitter batting 5th Contreras is a .318 .422 .940 career OPS hitter batting 4th. They are comfortable in those spots they are just in a slump both will come out of it. The fact that people think they would have never slumped if arenado kept batting 4th is beyond ridiculous they were never going to continue to win 10 of every 11 games if the lineup was never changed either that’s even more ridiculous

I just don't like tinkering with [shirt] when you are on a massive winning streak.

The winning streak wasn’t going to continue its impossible it wouldn’t have happened. Contreras wouldn’t have continued to be as hot as he was Herrera would never have continued to hit .400 they were never going to continue winning 10 of every 11 games. Just because they were winning and the team was making up for arenado sucking doesn’t mean they should have continued making poor baseball decisions such as giving an inferior hitter more at bats over better hitters that’s crazy. And Contreras has always excelled batting cleanup and Herrera has always hit well batting 5th slumps happen it’s baseball you and every one else should know that but apparently some don’t

[Futuregm2]

In the games that Nado has played since he has moved down in the lineup the team is 7-4. I think they are ok.

What a neat stat. They were 10-1 in the 11 games before Contreras and Herrera were moved up. Comfortability plays a big role for hitters, whether yall want to admit it or not.

Whether you want to admit it or not they are slumping which all players do not tanking because being moved in the lineup lol. Herrera is a career .297 .372 .832 OPS batting 4th and .273 .387 .955 OPS hitter batting 5th Contreras is a .318 .422 .940 career OPS hitter batting 4th. They are comfortable in those spots they are just in a slump both will come out of it. The fact that people think they would have never slumped if arenado kept batting 4th is beyond ridiculous they were never going to continue to win 10 of every 11 games if the lineup was never changed either that’s even more ridiculous

I just don't like tinkering with [shirt] when you are on a massive winning streak.

They didn’t tinker with [shirt] when they were on a massive winning streak. Their winning streak came to an end in a 2-1 loss where they had runners on 2nd and 3rd in the 8th inning with Nado up batting cleanup with 1 out and he popped out. And yes it’s only one example and could happen to anyone, but still point remains they weren’t on a massive winning streak and they aren’t winning any less than expected lately after rightfully switching the lineup around.

It’s weird to want to continue to hit a player 4th when he has a .604 OPS over his last 189 PAs (45 games). When he wasn’t even good last year and hasn’t been #4 worthy since 2022.

[PadsFS07]

It’s weird to want to continue to hit a player 4th when he has a .604 OPS over his last 189 PAs (45 games). When he wasn’t even good last year and hasn’t been #4 worthy since 2022.

I think it's weird to be this upset about a batting order, but here we are.

[Futuregm2]

It’s weird to want to continue to hit a player 4th when he has a .604 OPS over his last 189 PAs (45 games). When he wasn’t even good last year and hasn’t been #4 worthy since 2022.

I think it's weird to be this upset about a batting order, but here we are.

Batting order has always played a role in baseball, so I think it’s crazy to not at least have some thought about it.

And Arenado has a .735 OPS over his last 1477 MLB PAs and .707 OPS over his last 865 PAs. How is that the guy that you want hitting 4th?